COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy in Diverse Groups in the UK-Is the Driver Economic or Cultural in Student Populations.

Studies have identified a greater reluctance for members of the Black, Asian, and minority ethnic communities to be vaccinated against COVID-19 despite a higher probability of greater harm from COVID-19. We conducted an anonymised questionnaire-based study of students (recruiting primarily before first reports of embolic events) at two London universities to identify whether economic or educational levels were primarily responsible for this reluctance: a postgraduate core group (PGCC) n = 860, and a pilot study of undergraduate medical and nursing students (n = 103). Asian and Black students were 2.0 and 3.2 times (PGCC) less likely to accept the COVID vaccine than White British students. Similar findings were noted in the pilot study students. As the students were studying for Master's or PhD degrees and voluntarily paying high fees, educational and economic reasons were unlikely to be the underlying cause, and wider cultural reservations were more likely. Politicians exerted a strong negative influence, suggesting that campaigns should omit politicians.

Two interferon gamma release assays for predicting active tuberculosis: the UK PREDICT TB prognostic test study.

BACKGROUND: Despite a recent decline in the annual incidence of tuberculosis (TB) in the UK, rates remain higher than in most Western European countries. The detection and treatment of latent TB infection (LTBI) is an essential component of the UK TB control programme. OBJECTIVES: To assess the prognostic value and cost-effectiveness of the current two interferon gamma release assays (IGRAs) compared with the standard tuberculin skin test (TST) for predicting active TB among untreated individuals at increased risk of TB: (1) contacts of active TB cases and (2) new entrants to the UK from high-TB-burden countries. DESIGN: A prospective cohort study and economic analysis. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: Participants were recruited in TB clinics, general practices and community settings. Contacts of active TB cases and migrants who were born in high-TB-burden countries arriving in the UK were eligible to take part if they were aged ≥ 16 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Outcomes include incidence rate ratios comparing the incidence of active TB in those participants with a positive test result and those with a negative test result for each assay, and combination of tests and the cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) for each screening strategy. RESULTS: A total of 10,045 participants were recruited between May 2010 and July 2015. Among 9610 evaluable participants, 97 (1.0%) developed active TB. For the primary analysis, all test data were available for 6380 participants, with 77 participants developing active TB. A positive result for TSTa (positive if induration is ≥ 5 mm) was a significantly poorer predictor of progression to active TB than a positive result for any of the other tests. Compared with TSTb [positive if induration is ≥ 6 mm without prior bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) alone, T-SPOT®.TB (Oxford Immunotec Ltd, Oxford, UK), TSTa + T-SPOT.TB, TSTa + IGRA and the three combination strategies including TSTb were significantly superior predictors of progression. Compared with the T-SPOT.TB test alone, TSTa + T-SPOT.TB, TSTb + QuantiFERON® TB Gold In-Tube (QFT-GIT; QIAGEN GmbH, Hilden, Germany) and TSTb + IGRA were significantly superior predictors of progression and, compared with QFT-GIT alone, T-SPOT.TB, TSTa + T-SPOT.TB, TSTa + QFT-GIT, TSTa + IGRA, TSTb + T-SPOT.TB, TSTb + QFT-GIT and TSTb + IGRA were significantly superior predictors of progression. When evaluating the negative predictive performance of tests and strategies, negative results for TSTa + QFT-GIT were significantly poorer predictors of non-progression than negative results for TSTa, T-SPOT.TB and TSTa + IGRA. The most cost-effective LTBI testing strategies are the dual-testing strategies. The cost and QALY differences between the LTBI testing strategies were small; in particular, QFT-GIT, TSTb + T-SPOT.TB and TSTb + QFT-GIT had very similar incremental net benefit estimates. CONCLUSION: This study found modest differences between tests, or combinations of tests, in identifying individuals who would go on to develop active TB. However, a two-step approach that combined TSTb with an IGRA was the most cost-effective testing option. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE AND FUTURE RESEARCH: The two-step TSTb strategy, which stratified the TST by prior BCG vaccination followed by an IGRA, was the most cost-effective approach. The limited ability of current tests to predict who will progress limits the clinical utility of tests. The implications of these results for the NHS England/Public Health England national TB screening programme for migrants should be investigated. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as NCT01162265. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Prognostic value of interferon-γ release assays and tuberculin skin test in predicting the development of active tuberculosis (UK PREDICT TB): a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Tackling tuberculosis requires testing and treatment of latent tuberculosis in high-risk groups. The aim of this study was to estimate the predictive values of the tuberculin skin test (TST) and two interferon-γ release assays (IGRAs) for the development of active tuberculosis in high-risk groups-ie, people in recent contact with active tuberculosis cases and from high-burden countries. METHOD: In this prospective cohort study, we recruited participants from 54 centres (eg, clinics, community settings) in London, Birmingham, and Leicester in the UK. Participants were eligible if they were aged 16 years or older and at high risk for latent tuberculosis infection (ie, recent contact with someone with active tuberculosis [contacts] or a migrant who had arrived in the UK in the past 5 years from-or who frequently travelled to-a country with a high burden of tuberculosis [migrants]). Exclusion criteria included prevalent cases of tuberculosis, and participants who were treated for latent tuberculosis after a positive test result in this study. Each participant received three tests (QuantiFERON-TB Gold-In Tube, T-SPOT.TB, and a Mantoux TST). A positive TST result was reported using three thresholds: 5 mm (TST-5), 10 mm (TST-10), and greater than 5 mm in BCG-naive or 15 mm in BCG-vaccinated (TST-15) participants. Participants were followed up from recruitment to development of tuberculosis or censoring. Incident tuberculosis cases were identified by national tuberculosis databases, telephone interview, and review of medical notes. Our primary objective was to estimate the prognostic value of IGRAs compared with TST, assessed by the ratio of incidence rate ratios and predictive values for tuberculosis development. The study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01162265, and is now complete. FINDINGS: Between May 4, 2010, and June 1, 2015, 10 045 people were recruited, of whom 9610 were eligible for inclusion. Of this cohort, 4861 (50·6%) were contacts and 4749 (49·4%) were migrants. Participants were followed up for a median of 2·9 years (range 21 days to 5·9 years). 97 (1·0%) of 9610 participants developed active tuberculosis (77 [1·2%] of 6380 with results for all three tests). In all tests, annual incidence of tuberculosis was very low in those who tested negatively (ranging from 1·2 per 1000 person-years, 95% CI 0·6-2·0 for TST-5 to 1·9 per 1000 person-years, 95% CI 1·3-2·7, for QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube). Annual incidence in participants who tested positively were highest for T-SPOT.TB (13·2 per 1000 person-years, 95% CI 9·9-17·4), TST-15 (11·1 per 1000 person-years, 8·3-14·6), and QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube (10·1 per 1000 person-years, 7·4-13·4). Positive results for these tests were significantly better predictors of progression than TST-10 and TST-5 (eg, ratio of test positivity rates in those progressing to tuberculosis compared with those not progressing T-SPOT.TB vs TST-5: 1·99, 95% CI 1·68-2·34; p<0·0001). However, TST-5 identified a higher proportion of participants who progressed to active tuberculosis (64 [83%] of 77 tested) than all other tests and TST thresholds (≤75%). INTERPRETATION: IGRA-based or BCG-stratified TST strategies appear most suited to screening for potential disease progression among high-risk groups. Further work will be needed to assess country-specific cost-effectiveness of each screening test, and in the absence of highly specific diagnostic tests, cheap non-toxic treatments need to be developed that could be given to larger groups of people at potential risk. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme 08-68-01.

Should all suspected tuberculosis cases in high income countries be tested with GeneXpert?

In countries with a low incidence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB), universal testing with GeneXpert might not be always cost-effective. This study provides hospital managers in low MDR-TB incidence countries with criteria on when decentralised universal GeneXpert testing would make sense. The alternatives taken into consideration include: universal microbiological culture and drug susceptibility testing (DST) only (comparator); as above but with concurrent centralized GeneXpert in a referral laboratory vs a decentralized GeneXpert system in every hospital to test smear-positive cases only; as above but testing all samples with GeneXpert regardless of smear status. The parameters were from the national TB statistics for England and from a systematic review. Decentralised GeneXpert to test any suspected TB case was the most cost-effective option when 6% or more TB patients belonged to the high-risk group, defined as previous TB diagnosis and or being born in countries with a high MDR-TB incidence. Hospital managers in England and other low MDR-TB incidence countries could use these findings to decide when to invest in GeneXpert or other molecular diagnostics with similar performance criteria for TB diagnostics.

External Quality Assessment for Tuberculosis Diagnosis and Drug Resistance in the European Union: A Five Year Multicentre Implementation Study.

BACKGROUND: External quality assurance (EQA) systems are essential to ensure accurate diagnosis of TB and drug-resistant TB. The implementation of EQA through organising regular EQA rounds and identification of training needs is one of the key activities of the European TB reference laboratory network (ERLTB-Net). The aim of this study was to analyse the results of the EQA rounds in a systematic manner and to identify potential benefits as well as common problems encountered by the participants. METHODS: The ERLTB-Net developed seven EQA modules to test laboratories' proficiency for TB detection and drug susceptibility testing using both conventional and rapid molecular tools. All National TB Reference laboratories in the European Union and European Economic Area (EU/EEA) Member States were invited to participate in the EQA scheme. RESULTS: A total of 32 National TB Reference laboratories participated in six EQA rounds conducted in 2010-2014. The participation rate ranged from 52.9% - 94.1% over different modules and rounds. Overall, laboratories demonstrated very good proficiency proving their ability to diagnose TB and drug-resistant TB with high accuracy in a timely manner. A small number of laboratories encountered problems with identification of specific Non-tuberculous Mycobacteria (NTMs) (N = 5) and drug susceptibility testing to Pyrazinamide, Amikacin, Capreomycin, and Ethambutol (N = 4). CONCLUSIONS: The European TB Reference laboratories showed a steady and high level of performance in the six EQA rounds. A network such as ERLTB-Net can be instrumental in developing and implementing EQA and in establishing collaboration between laboratories to improve the diagnosis of TB in the EU/EEA.

Systematic review, meta-analysis and economic modelling of molecular diagnostic tests for antibiotic resistance in tuberculosis.

BACKGROUND: Drug-resistant tuberculosis (TB), especially multidrug-resistant (MDR, resistance to rifampicin and isoniazid) disease, is associated with a worse patient outcome. Drug resistance diagnosed using microbiological culture takes days to weeks, as TB bacteria grow slowly. Rapid molecular tests for drug resistance detection (1 day) are commercially available and may promote faster initiation of appropriate treatment. OBJECTIVES: To (1) conduct a systematic review of evidence regarding diagnostic accuracy of molecular genetic tests for drug resistance, (2) conduct a health-economic evaluation of screening and diagnostic strategies, including comparison of alternative models of service provision and assessment of the value of targeting rapid testing at high-risk subgroups, and (3) construct a transmission-dynamic mathematical model that translates the estimates of diagnostic accuracy into estimates of clinical impact. REVIEW METHODS AND DATA SOURCES: A standardised search strategy identified relevant studies from EMBASE, PubMed, MEDLINE, Bioscience Information Service (BIOSIS), System for Information on Grey Literature in Europe Social Policy & Practice (SIGLE) and Web of Science, published between 1 January 2000 and 15 August 2013. Additional 'grey' sources were included. Quality was assessed using quality assessment of diagnostic accuracy studies version 2 (QUADAS-2). For each diagnostic strategy and population subgroup, a care pathway was constructed to specify which medical treatments and health services that individuals would receive from presentation to the point where they either did or did not complete TB treatment successfully. A total cost was estimated from a health service perspective for each care pathway, and the health impact was estimated in terms of the mean discounted quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) lost as a result of disease and treatment. Costs and QALYs were both discounted at 3.5% per year. An integrated transmission-dynamic and economic model was used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of introducing rapid molecular testing (in addition to culture and drug sensitivity testing). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the impact on cost-effectiveness of diagnostic and treatment time delays, diagnosis and treatment costs, and associated QALYs. RESULTS: A total of 8922 titles and abstracts were identified, with 557 papers being potentially eligible. Of these, 56 studies contained sufficient test information for analysis. All three commercial tests performed well when detecting drug resistance in clinical samples, although with evidence of heterogeneity between studies. Pooled sensitivity for GenoType® MTBDRplus (Hain Lifescience, Nehren, Germany) (isoniazid and rifampicin resistance), INNO-LiPA Rif.TB® (Fujirebio Europe, Ghent, Belgium) (rifampicin resistance) and Xpert® MTB/RIF (Cepheid Inc., Sunnyvale, CA, USA) (rifampicin resistance) was 83.4%, 94.6%, 95.4% and 96.8%, respectively; equivalent pooled specificity was 99.6%, 98.2%, 99.7% and 98.4%, respectively. Results of the transmission model suggest that all of the rapid assays considered here, if added to the current diagnostic pathway, would be cost-saving and achieve a reduction in expected QALY loss compared with current practice. GenoType MTBDRplus appeared to be the most cost-effective of the rapid tests in the South Asian population, although results were similar for GeneXpert. In all other scenarios GeneXpert appeared to be the most cost-effective strategy. CONCLUSIONS: Rapid molecular tests for rifampicin and isoniazid resistance were sensitive and specific. They may also be cost-effective when added to culture drug susceptibility testing in the UK. There is global interest in point-of-care testing and further work is needed to review the performance of emerging tests and the wider health-economic impact of decentralised testing in clinics and primary care, as well as non-health-care settings, such as shelters and prisons. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42011001537. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Assessment of Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission in Oxfordshire, UK, 2007-12, with whole pathogen genome sequences: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Patients born outside the UK have contributed to a 20% rise in the UK's tuberculosis incidence since 2000, but their effect on domestic transmission is not known. Here we use whole-genome sequencing to investigate the epidemiology of tuberculosis transmission in an unselected population over 6 years. METHODS: We identified all residents with Oxfordshire postcodes with a Mycobacterium tuberculosis culture or a clinical diagnosis of tuberculosis between Jan 1, 2007, and Dec 31, 2012, using local databases and checking against the national Enhanced Tuberculosis Surveillance database. We used Illumina technology to sequence all available M tuberculosis cultures from identified cases. Sequences were clustered by genetic relatedness and compared retrospectively with contact investigations. The first patient diagnosed in each cluster was defined as the index case, with links to subsequent cases assigned first by use of any epidemiological linkage, then by genetic distance, and then by timing of diagnosis. FINDINGS: Although we identified 384 patients with a diagnosis of tuberculosis, country of birth was known for 380 and we sequenced isolates from 247 of 269 cases with culture-confirmed disease. 39 cases were genomically linked within 13 clusters, implying 26 local transmission events. Only 11 of 26 possible transmissions had been previously identified through contact tracing. Of seven genomically confirmed household clusters, five contained additional genomic links to epidemiologically unidentified non-household members. 255 (67%) patients were born in a country with high tuberculosis incidence, conferring a local incidence of 109 cases per 100,000 population per year in Oxfordshire, compared with 3·5 cases per 100,000 per year for those born in low-incidence countries. However, patients born in the low-incidence countries, predominantly UK, were more likely to have pulmonary disease (adjusted odds ratio 1·8 [95% CI 1·2-2·9]; p=0·009), social risk factors (4·4 [2·0-9·4]; p<0·0001), and be part of a local transmission cluster (4·8 [1·6-14·8]; p=0·006). INTERPRETATION: Although inward migration has contributed to the overall tuberculosis incidence, our findings suggest that most patients born in high-incidence countries reactivate latent infection acquired abroad and are not involved in local onward transmission. Systematic screening of new entrants could further improve tuberculosis control, but it is important that health care remains accessible to all individuals, especially high-risk groups, if tuberculosis control is not to be jeopardised. FUNDING: UK Clinical Research Collaboration (Wellcome Trust, Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health Research [NIHR]), and NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre.

Survival of drug resistant tuberculosis patients in Lithuania: retrospective national cohort study.

Objective To establish risk factors influencing survival of patients with multidrug-resistant and extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR/XDRTB). Design All MDR/XDRTB cases (n=1809) reported from 2002 to 2008 in Lithuania with a known outcome were included in the survival analysis. Results Median survival for MDRTB and XDRTB patients was 4.1 (95% CI 3.7 to 4.4) and 2.9 (95% CI 2.2 to 3.9) years. In a multivariable analysis adjusting for other patient characteristics, the difference in survival between MDRTB and XDRTB patients was not significant (HR=1.29 (0.91 to 1.81)). Older age (HR=4.80 (3.16 to 7.29)) for 60+ vs <30 years, rural living (HR=1.20 (1.02 to 1.40)), alcohol use (HR=1.49 (1.13 to 1.96)) for alcoholic versus moderate use, unemployment (HR=1.79 (1.31 to 2.46)), lower education levels (HR=1.50 (1.08 to 2.07)) for primary level versus tertiary level, cavitary disease (HR=1.54 (1.29 to 1.83)) and being smear positive at the time of MDR/XDRTB diagnosis (HR=1.47 (1.19 to 1.82)) were associated with poorer survival. HIV positivity significantly affected survival (HR=3.44 (1.92 to 6.19)) for HIV positive versus HIV negative; HR=1.60 (1.28 to 2.01) for HIV not tested versus HIV negative). There was no difference in survival of patients who acquired MDR/XDRTB during treatment compared with patients with primary MDR/XDRTB (HR=1.01 (0.85 to 1.19)). Treatment with a second-line drug improved survival (HR=0.40 (0.34 to 0.47)). In a subgroup with genotyped TB strains, a Beijing family of strains was associated with poorer survival (HR=1.71 (1.19 to 2.47)). Conclusions Social factors, rural living, HIV infection and Beijing strain family impact on survival. Survival of MDR/XDRTB patients is short. Rapid drug resistance identification, early administration of appropriate treatment and achieving high cure rates, expansion of HIV testing and antiretroviral treatment are necessary for optimal management of MDR/XDRTB.

An integrated approach to rapid diagnosis of tuberculosis and multidrug resistance using liquid culture and molecular methods in Russia.

OBJECTIVE: To analyse the feasibility, cost and performance of rapid tuberculosis (TB) molecular and culture systems, in a high multidrug-resistant TB (MDR TB) middle-income region (Samara, Russia) and provide evidence for WHO policy change. METHODS: Performance and cost evaluation was conducted to compare the BACTEC MGIT 960 system for culture and drug susceptibility testing (DST) and molecular systems for TB diagnosis, resistance to isoniazid and rifampin, and MDR TB identification compared to conventional Lowenstein-Jensen culture assays. FINDINGS: 698 consecutive patients (2487 sputum samples) with risk factors for drug-resistant tuberculosis were recruited. Overall M. tuberculosis complex culture positivity rates were 31.6% (787/2487) in MGIT and 27.1% (675/2487) in LJ (90.5% and 83.2% for smear-positive specimens). In total, 809 cultures of M. tuberculosis complex were isolated by any method. Median time to detection was 14 days for MGIT and 36 days for LJ (10 and 33 days for smear positive specimens) and indirect DST in MGIT took 9 days compared to 21 days on LJ. There was good concordance between DST on LJ and MGIT (96.8% for rifampin and 95.6% for isoniazid). Both molecular hybridization assay results correlated well with MGIT DST results, although molecular assays generally yielded higher rates of resistance (by approximately 3% for both isoniazid and rifampin). CONCLUSION: With effective planning and logistics, the MGIT 960 and molecular based methodologies can be successfully introduced into a reference laboratory setting in a middle incidence country. High rates of MDR TB in the Russian Federation make the introduction of such assays particularly useful.

Antimicrobial prescribing patterns for respiratory diseases including tuberculosis in Russia: a possible role in drug resistance?

BACKGROUND: Inappropriate antibiotic prescribing exposes patients to the risk of side effects and encourages the development of drug resistance across antimicrobial groups used for respiratory infections including tuberculosis (TB). AIM: Determine among Russian general practitioners and specialists: (1) sources of antimicrobial prescribing information; (2) patterns of antimicrobial prescribing for common respiratory diseases and differences between primary and specialist physicians; (3) whether drug resistance in TB might be linked to over-prescribing of anti-TB drugs for respiratory conditions. METHODS: Point-prevalence cross-sectional survey involving all 28 primary care, general medicine and TB treatment institutions in Samara City, Russian Federation. In this two-stage study, a questionnaire was used to examine doctors' antimicrobial (including TB drugs) prescribing habits, sources of prescribing information, management of respiratory infections and a case scenario ('common cold'). This was followed by a case note review of actual prescribing for consecutive patients with respiratory diseases at three institutions. RESULTS: Initial questionnaires were completed by 81.3% (425/523) of physicians with 78.4% working in primary care. Most doctors used standard textbooks to guide their antimicrobial practice but 80% made extensive use of pharmaceutical company information. A minority of 1.7% would have inappropriately prescribed antibiotics for the case and 0.8-1.8% of respondents would have definitely prescribed TB drugs for non-TB conditions. Of the 495 respiratory cases, 25% of doctors prescribed an antibiotic for a simple upper respiratory tract infection and of 8 patients with a clinical diagnosis of TB, 4 received rifampicin monotherapy alone. Ciprofloxacin was widely but inappropriately used. CONCLUSION: Doctors rely on information provided by pharmaceutical companies; there was inappropriate antibiotic prescribing.