Racial Inequities in the Control of Hypertension and the Explanatory Role of Residential Segregation: a Decomposition Analysis in the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil).

The mechanisms underlying racial inequities in uncontrolled hypertension have been limited to individual factors. We investigated racial inequities in uncontrolled hypertension and the explanatory role of economic segregation in the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil). All 3897 baseline participants with hypertension (2008-2010) were included. Uncontrolled hypertension (SBP ≥ 140 mmHg or DBP ≥ 90 mmHg), self-reported race (White/Brown/Black people), and neighborhood economic segregation (low/medium/high) were analyzed cross-sectionally. We used decomposition analysis, which describes how much a disparity would change (disparity reduction; explained portion) and remain (disparity residual; unexplained portion) upon removing racial differences in economic segregation (i.e., if Black people had the distribution of segregation of White people, how much we would expect uncontrolled hypertension to decrease among Black people). Age- and gender-adjusted prevalence of uncontrolled hypertension (39.0%, 52.6%, and 54.2% for White, Brown, and Black participants, respectively) remained higher for Black and Brown vs White participants, regardless of economic segregation. Uncontrolled hypertension showed a dose-response pattern with increasing segregation levels for White but not for Black and Brown participants. After adjusting for age, gender, education, and study center, unexplained portion (disparity residual) of race on uncontrolled hypertension was 18.2% (95% CI 13.4%; 22.9%) for Black vs White participants and 12.6% (8.2%; 17.1%) for Brown vs White participants. However, explained portion (disparity reduction) through economic segregation was - 2.1% (- 5.1%; 1.3%) for Black vs White and 0.5% (- 1.7%; 2.8%) for Brown vs White participants. Although uncontrolled hypertension was greater for Black and Brown vs White people, racial inequities in uncontrolled hypertension were not explained by economic segregation.

Spatial clusters of diabetes: individual and neighborhood characteristics in the ELSA-Brasil cohort study / Aglomerados espaciais de diabetes: características individuais e de vizinhança no estudo longitudinal ELSA-Brasil / Grupos espaciales de diabetes: características individuales y vecinales en el estudio longitudinal ELSA-Brasil

This study identified spatial clusters of type 2 diabetes mellitus among participants of the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil) residing in two cities and verified individual and neighborhood socioeconomic environmental characteristics associated with the spatial clusters. A cross-sectional study was conducted with 4,335 participants. Type 2 diabetes mellitus was defined as fasting blood glucose ≥ 126mg/dL (7.0mmol/L), oral glucose tolerance test ≥ 200mg/dL (11.1mmol/L), or glycated hemoglobin ≥ 6.5% (48mmol/L); by antidiabetic drug use; or by the self-reported medical diagnosis of type 2 diabetes mellitus. Neighborhood socioeconomic characteristics were obtained from the 2011 Brazilian census. A spatial data analysis was conducted with the SaTScan method to detect spatial clusters. Logistic regression models were fitted to estimate the magnitude of associations. In total, 336 and 343 participants had type 2 diabetes mellitus in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais State (13.5%) and Salvador, Bahia State (18.5%), respectively. Two cluster areas showing a high chance of type 2 diabetes mellitus were identified in Belo Horizonte and Salvador. In both cities, participants living in the high type 2 diabetes mellitus cluster area were more likely to be mixed-race or black and have a low schooling level and manual work; these were also considered low-income areas. On the other hand, participants in the low type 2 diabetes mellitus cluster area of Salvador were less likely to be black and have low schooling level (university degree) and live in a low-income area. More vulnerable individual and neighborhood socioeconomic characteristics were associated with living in clusters of higher type 2 diabetes mellitus occurrence , whereas better contextual profiles were associated with clusters of lower prevalence.

Este estudo identificou aglomerados espaciais de diabetes mellitus tipo 2 entre participantes do Estudo Longitudinal de Saúde do Adulto no Brasil (ELSA-Brasil) em duas cidades e verificou características socioeconômicas ambientais individuais e de vizinhança associadas aos aglomerados espaciais. Se trata de um estudo transversal com 4.335 participantes. Diabetes mellitus tipo 2 foi definido com base em glicemia de jejum ≥ 126mg/dL (7,0mmol/L); teste oral de tolerância à glicose ≥ 200mg/dL (11,1mmol/L); hemoglobina glicada ≥ 6,5% (48mmol/L); uso de drogas antidiabéticas; ou pelo autodiagnóstico médico de diabetes mellitus tipo 2. As características socioeconômicas do bairro foram obtidas a partir do censo brasileiro de 2011. A análise dos dados espaciais foi realizada pelo método SaTScan para detectar os aglomerados espaciais. Os modelos de regressão logística foram ajustados para estimar a magnitude das associações. Um total de 336 e 343 participantes apresentaram diabetes mellitus tipo 2 em Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais (13,5%) e Salvador, Bahia (18,5%), respectivamente. Foram identificadas duas áreas de aglomerados com alta probabilidade de diabetes mellitus tipo 2 em Belo Horizonte e Salvador. Em ambas as cidades, os participantes residentes nos aglomerados com alta taxa de diabetes mellitus tipo 2 tinham maior probabilidade de relatar cor de pele parda ou preta, baixa escolaridade e ocupação de trabalho manual; essas áreas também foram consideradas de baixa renda. Por outro lado, os participantes do aglomerado com baixa taxa de diabetes mellitus tipo 2 de Salvador tinham menor probabilidade de serem negros e maior probabilidade de terem diploma universitário, além de morarem em áreas de alta renda. Características socioeconômicas individuais e de vizinhança mais vulneráveis estavam associadas à residência em aglomerados de maior ocorrência de diabetes mellitus tipo 2, enquanto o oposto foi observado para perfis contextuais melhores.

Este estudio identificó grupos espaciales de diabetes mellitus tipo 2 entre los participantes del Estudio Longitudinal de Salud del Adulto en Brasil (ELSA-Brasil) en dos ciudades y verificó las características socioeconómicas ambientales individuales y de vecindario asociadas con los grupos espaciales. Se trata de un estudio transversal con 4.335 participantes. La diabetes mellitus tipo 2 se definió en base a glucosa en ayunas ≥ 126mg/dL (7,0mmol/L); prueba de tolerancia oral a la glucosa ≥ 200mg/dL (11,1mmol/L); hemoglobina glicosilada ≥ 6,5% (48mmol/L); uso de medicamentos antidiabéticos; o por autodiagnóstico médico de diabetes mellitus tipo 2. Las características socioeconómicas del barrio se obtuvieron a partir del censo brasileño de 2011. El análisis de datos espaciales se realizó utilizando el método SaTScan para detectar grupos espaciales. Los modelos de regresión logística se ajustaron para estimar la magnitud de las asociaciones. Un total de 336 y 343 participantes presentaron diabetes mellitus tipo 2 en Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais (13,5%) y Salvador, Bahia (18,5%), respectivamente. Se identificaron dos áreas de grupos con alta probabilidad de diabetes mellitus tipo 2 en Belo Horizonte y Salvador. En ambas ciudades, los participantes que residían en las áreas del grupo con una alta tasa de diabetes mellitus tipo 2 tenían más probabilidades de informar el color de piel pardo o negro, la baja educación y la ocupación del trabajo manual; estas áreas también se consideraron de bajos ingresos. Por el contrario, los participantes en el área del grupo con baja tasa de diabetes mellitus tipo 2 de Salvador tenían menos probabilidades de ser negros y más probabilidades de tener un título universitario, además de vivir en áreas de altos ingresos. Las características socioeconómicas individuales y de vecindario más vulnerables se asociaron con la residencia en grupos de mayor incidencia de diabetes mellitus tipo 2, mientras que se observó lo contrario para mejores perfiles contextuales.

Exposure to and Burden of Major Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factors in Brazil and its States, 1990-2019: The Global Burden of Disease Study.

INTRODUCTION: Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) have become the main cause of disease burden in Brazil. Our objective was to describe trends (1990 to 2019) in prevalence and attributable burden of five modifiable risk factors and related metabolic risk factors in Brazil and its states. METHODS: In Global Burden of Disease 2019 analyses, we described trends in prevalence of modifiable risk factors and their metabolic mediators as percentage change in Summary Exposure Value (SEV). We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to the risk factors. RESULTS: Age-adjusted exposures to alcohol [41.0%, Uncertainty Interval (UI): 24.2 - 63.4], red meat (61.2%, UI: 42.4-92.3), low physical activity (3.9%, UI: -5-17.5) and ambient particulate matter pollution (3.3%, UI: -48.9-128.0) have worsened. Those for smoking (-51.4%, UI: -54.7- - 47.8), diet low in fruits (-28.1%, UI: -39.1- -18.7) and vegetables (-19.6%, UI: -32.7 - -8.7), and household air pollution (-85.3%, UI: -92.9- -74.3) have improved. All mediating metabolic risk factors, except high blood pressure (0.7%, UI: -6.9-8.3), have worsened: BMI (110.2%, UI: 78.6-161.7), hyperglycemia (15.1%, UI: 9.3-21.2), kidney dysfunction (12.0%, UI: 8.4-17.2), and high LDL-c (11.8%, UI: 6.9-17.2). CONCLUSIONS: A variable pattern of progress and failure in controlling modifiable risk factors has been accompanied by major worsening in most metabolic risk factors. The mixed success in public health measures to control modifiable risk factors for NCDs, when gauged by the related trends in metabolic risk factors, alert to the need for stronger actions to control NCDs in the future.

Premature mortality due to four main non-communicable diseases and suicide in Brazil and its states from 1990 to 2019: A Global Burden of Disease Study.

INTRODUCTION: The goal of reducing the burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) requires close monitoring. Our objective is to characterize the decline of premature NCD mortality in Brazil based on Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) Study 2019 estimates. METHODS: We used GBD 2019 data to estimate death rates of the four main NCDs - cardiovascular diseases, neoplasms, diabetes, and chronic respiratory diseases. We estimated the unconditional probability of death between ages 30 to 69, as recommended by the World Health Organization, as well as premature crude- and age-standardized death rates and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost for these conditions. We also estimated trends in suicide (self-harm) death rates. RESULTS: From 2010 to 2019, the age-standardized unconditional probability of premature death declined -1.4%/year (UI: -1.7%;-1.0%) . Age-standardized death rates declined -1.5%/year (UI: -1.9%; -1.2%), and crude death rates -0.6%/year (UI: (-1.0%; -0.2%). Level of development correlated strongly with the rate of decline, with greatest declines occurring in the Southeast, Center West and South regions. Age-standardized mortality from self-harm declined, most notably in the elderly. CONCLUSIONS: Premature mortality due to the main NCDs has declined from 1990 in Brazil, although at a diminishing rate over time. The unconditional probability of death and the age-standardized mortality rate produced similar estimates of decline for the four main NCDs, and mirror well decline in mortality from all NCDs. Declines, especially more recent ones, fall short of the international goals. Strategic public health actions are needed. The challenge to implement them will be great, considering the political and economic instability currently faced by Brazil.

IDF Diabetes Atlas: Global, regional and country-level diabetes prevalence estimates for 2021 and projections for 2045.

AIMS: To provide global, regional, and country-level estimates of diabetes prevalence and health expenditures for 2021 and projections for 2045. METHODS: A total of 219 data sources meeting pre-established quality criteria reporting research conducted between 2005 and 2020 and representing 215 countries and territories were identified. For countries without data meeting quality criteria, estimates were extrapolated from countries with similar economies, ethnicity, geography and language. Logistic regression was used to generate smoothed age-specific diabetes prevalence estimates. Diabetes-related health expenditures were estimated using an attributable fraction method. The 2021 diabetes prevalence estimates were applied to population estimates for 2045 to project future prevalence. RESULTS: The global diabetes prevalence in 20-79 year olds in 2021 was estimated to be 10.5% (536.6 million people), rising to 12.2% (783.2 million) in 2045. Diabetes prevalence was similar in men and women and was highest in those aged 75-79 years. Prevalence (in 2021) was estimated to be higher in urban (12.1%) than rural (8.3%) areas, and in high-income (11.1%) compared to low-income countries (5.5%). The greatest relative increase in the prevalence of diabetes between 2021 and 2045 is expected to occur in middle-income countries (21.1%) compared to high- (12.2%) and low-income (11.9%) countries. Global diabetes-related health expenditures were estimated at 966 billion USD in 2021, and are projected to reach 1,054 billion USD by 2045. CONCLUSIONS: Just over half a billion people are living with diabetes worldwide which means that over 10.5% of the world's adult population now have this condition.

Prognostic value of electrocardiographic abnormalities in adults from the Brazilian longitudinal study of adults' health.

OBJECTIVE: Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are highly preventable non-communicable diseases. ECG is a potential tool for risk stratification with respect to CVD. Our aim was to evaluate ECG's role in all-cause and cardiovascular mortality prediction. METHODS: Participants from the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health, free of known CVD at baseline were included. A 12-lead ECG was obtained at baseline (2008-2010). Participants were followed up to 2018 by annual interviews. Deaths were independently reviewed. Cox as well as Fine and Grey multivariable regression models were applied to evaluate if the presence of any major electrocardiographic abnormality (MEA), defined according to the Minnesota Code system, would predict total and cardiovascular deaths. We also evaluated the Net Reclassification Index of adding MEA to the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE). RESULTS: The 13 428 participants (median age 51 years, 45% men) were followed up for 8±1 years. All-cause and cardiovascular mortality occurred in 2.8% and 1.2% of the population, respectively. Prevalent MEA was an independent predictor of overall (HR=2.3, 95% CI 1.7 to 2.9) and cardiovascular mortality (HR=4.6, 95% CI 3.0 to 7.0) after adjustments for age, race, education and traditional cardiovascular risk factors. Adding MEA to the SCORE resulted in 9% mis-reclassification in the non-event subgroup and 33% correct reclassification in those with a fatal cardiovascular event. CONCLUSION: Presence of MEA was an independent predictor of overall and cardiovascular mortality. ECG may have a role in risk prediction of cardiovascular mortality in primary care.

Homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and metabolic syndrome at baseline of a multicentric Brazilian cohort: ELSA-Brasil study.

Homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) is a method to measure insulin resistance. HOMA-IR cut-offs for identifying metabolic syndrome might vary across populations and body mass index (BMI) levels. We aimed to investigate HOMA-insulin resistance cut-offs that best discriminate individuals with insulin resistance and with metabolic syndrome for each BMI category in a large sample of adults without diabetes in the baseline of the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil). Among the 12,313 participants with mean age of 51.2 (SD 8.9) years, the prevalence of metabolic syndrome was 34.6%, and 60.1% had overweight or obesity. The prevalence of metabolic syndrome among normal weight, overweight and obesity categories were, respectively, 13%, 43.2% and 60.7%. The point of maximum combined sensitivity and specificity of HOMA-IR to discriminate the metabolic syndrome was 2.35 in the whole sample, with increasing values at higher BMI categories. This investigation contributes to better understanding HOMA-IR values associated with insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome in a large Brazilian adult sample, and that use of cut-off points according to ROC curve may be the better strategy. It also suggests that different values might be appropriate across BMI categories.

The burden of disease among Brazilian older adults and the challenge for health policies: results of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: Brazil is the world's fifth most populous nation, and is currently experimenting a fast demographic aging process in a context of scarce resources and social inequalities. To understand the health profile of older adults in Brazil is fundamental for planning public policies. METHODS: The estimates were derived from data obtained through the collaboration between the Brazilian Ministry of Health and the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation of the University of Washington. The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics provided the population estimates. Data on causes of death came from the Mortality Information System. To calculate morbidity, population-based studies on the prevalence of diseases in Brazil were comprehensively searched, in addition to information obtained from national databases such as the Hospital Information System, the Outpatient Information System, and the Injury Information System. We presented the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates among Brazilian older adults (60+ years old) for life expectancy at birth (LE), healthy life expectancy (HALE), cause-specific mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), from 2000 to 2017. RESULTS: LE at birth significantly increased from 71.3 years (95% UI to 70.9-71.8) to 75.2 years (95% UI 74.7-75.7). There was a trend of increasing HALE, from 62.2 years (95% UI 59.54-64.5) to 65.5 years (95% UI 62.6-68.0). The proportion of DALYs among older adults increased from 7.3 to 10.3%. Chronic noncommunicable diseases are the leading cause of death among middle aged and older adults, while Alzheimer's disease is a leading cause only among older adults. Mood disorders, musculoskeletal pain, and hearing or vision losses are among the leading causes of disability. CONCLUSIONS: The increase in LE and the decrease of the DALYs rates are probably results of the improvement of social conditions and health policies. However, the smaller increase of HALE than LE means that despite living more, people spend a substantial time of their old age with disability and illness. Preventable or potentially controllable diseases are responsible for most of the burden of disease among Brazilian older adults. Health investments are necessary to obtain longevity with quality of life in Brazil.

The burden of low back pain in Brazil: estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 Study.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence and burden of musculoskeletal (MSK) conditions are growing around the world, and low back pain (LBP) is the most significant of the five defined MSK disorders in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. LBP has been the leading cause of non-fatal health loss for the last three decades. The objective of this study is to describe the current status and trends of the burden due to LBP in Brazil based on information drawn from the GBD 2017 study. METHODS: We estimated prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) for LBP by Brazilian federative units, sex, age group, and age-standardized between 1990 and 2017 and conducted a decomposition analysis of changes in age- and sex-specific YLD rates attributable to total population growth and population ageing for the purpose of understanding the drivers of changes in LBP YLDs rates in Brazil. Furthermore, we analyzed the changes in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rankings for this disease over the period. RESULTS: The results show high prevalence and burden of LBP in Brazil. LBP prevalence increased 26.83% (95% UI 23.08 to 30.41) from 1990 to 2017. This MSK condition represents the most important cause of YLDs in Brazil, where the increase in burden is mainly related to increase in population size and ageing. The LBP age-standardized YLDs rate are similar among Brazilian federative units. LBP ranks in the top three causes of DALYs in Brazil, even though it does not contribute to mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Findings from this study show LBP to be the most important cause of YLDs and the 3rd leading cause of DALYs in Brazil. The Brazilian population is ageing, and the country has been experiencing a rapid epidemiological transition, which generates an increasing number of people who need chronic care. In this scenario, more attention should be paid to the burden of non-fatal health conditions.

Trends in prevalence, mortality, and morbidity associated with high systolic blood pressure in Brazil from 1990 to 2017: estimates from the "Global Burden of Disease 2017" (GBD 2017) study.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension remains the leading risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) worldwide, and its impact in Brazil should be assessed in order to better address the issue. We aimed to describe trends in prevalence and burden of disease attributable to high systolic blood pressure (HSBP) among Brazilians ≥ 25 years old according to sex and federal units (FU) using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates. METHODS: We used the comparative risk assessment developed for the GBD study to estimate trends in attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALY), by sex, and FU for HSBP from 1990 to 2017. This study included 14 HSBP-outcome pairs. HSBP was defined as ≥ 140 mmHg for prevalence estimates, and a theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) of 110-115 mmHg was considered for disease burden. We estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs attributed to HSBP. We also explored the drivers of trends in HSBP burden, as well as the correlation between disease burden and sociodemographic development index (SDI). RESULTS: In Brazil, the prevalence of HSBP is 18.9% (95% uncertainty intervals [UI] 18.5-19.3%), with an annual 0.4% increase rate, while age-standardized death rates attributable to HSBP decreased from 189.2 (95%UI 168.5-209.2) deaths to 104.8 (95%UI 94.9-114.4) deaths per 100,000 from 1990 to 2017. In spite of that, the total number of deaths attributable to HSBP increased 53.4% and HSBP raised from 3rd to 1st position, as the leading risk factor for deaths during the period. Regarding total DALYs, HSBP raised from 4th in 1990 to 2nd cause in 2017. The main driver of change of HSBP burden is population aging. Across FUs, the reduction in the age-standardized death rates attributable to HSBP correlated with higher SDI. CONCLUSIONS: While HSBP prevalence shows an increasing trend, age-standardized death and DALY rates are decreasing in Brazil, probably as results of successful public policies for CVD secondary prevention and control, but suboptimal control of its determinants. Reduction was more significant in FUs with higher SDI, suggesting that the effect of health policies was heterogeneous. Moreover, HSBP has become the main risk factor for death in Brazil, mainly due to population aging.

The burden of diabetes and hyperglycemia in Brazil: a global burden of disease study 2017.

BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2017 database permits an up-to-date evaluation of the frequency and burden of diabetes at the state level in Brazil and by type of diabetes. The objective of this report is to describe, using these updated GBD data, the current and projected future burden of diabetes and hyperglycemia in Brazil, as well as its variation over time and space. METHODS: We derived all estimates using the GBD 2016 and 2017 databases to characterize disease burden related to diabetes and hyperglycemia in Brazil, from 1990 to 2040, using standard GBD methodologies. RESULTS: The overall estimated prevalence of diabetes in Brazil in 2017 was 4.4% (95%UI 4.0-4.9%), with 4.0% of those with diabetes being identified as having type 1 disease. While the crude prevalence of type 1 disease has remained relatively stable from 1990, type 2 prevalence has increased 30% for males and 26% for females. In 2017, approximately 3.3% of all disability-adjusted life years lost were due to diabetes and 5.9% to hyperglycemia. Diabetes prevalence and mortality were highest in the Northeast region and growing fastest in the North, Northeast, and Center-West regions. Over this period, despite a slight decrease in age-standardized incidence of type 2 diabetes, crude overall burden due to hyperglycemia has increased 19%, with population aging being a main cause for this rise. Cardiovascular diseases, responsible for 38.3% of this burden in 1990, caused only 25.9% of it in 2017, with premature mortality attributed directly to diabetes causing 31.6% of the 2017 burden. Future projections suggest that the diabetes mortality burden will increase 144% by 2040, more than twice the expected increase in crude disease burden overall (54%). By 2040, diabetes is projected to be Brazil's third leading cause of death and hyperglycemia its third leading risk factor, in terms of deaths. CONCLUSIONS: The disease burden in Brazil attributable to diabetes and hyperglycemia, already large, is predicted by GBD estimates to more than double to 2040. Strong actions by the Ministry of Health are necessary to counterbalance the major deleterious effects of population aging.

Trends in mortality due to non-communicable diseases in the Brazilian adult population: national and subnational estimates and projections for 2030.

BACKGROUND: Monitoring and reducing premature mortality due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is a global priority of Agenda 2030. This study aimed to describe the mortality trends and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost due to NCDs between 1990 and 2017 for Brazil and to project those for 2030 as well as the risk factors (RFs) attributed deaths according to estimates of the Global Burden of Disease Study. METHODS: We analyzed cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, neoplasms, and diabetes, and compared the mortality rates in 1990 and 2017 for all of Brazil and states. The study used the definition of premature mortality (30-69 years) that is used by the World Health Organization. The number of deaths, mortality rates, DALYs, and years of life lost (YLL) were used to compare 1990 and 2017. We analyzed the YLL for NCDs attributable to RFs. RESULTS: There was a reduction of 35.3% from 509.1 deaths/100,000 inhabitants (1990) to 329.6 deaths/100,000 inhabitants due to NCDs in 2017. The DALY rate decreased by 33.6%, and the YLL rate decreased by 36.0%. There were reductions in NCDs rates in all 27 states. The main RFs related to premature deaths by NCDs in 2017 among women were high body mass index (BMI), dietary risks, high systolic blood pressure, and among men, dietary risks, high systolic blood pressure, tobacco, and high BMI. Trends in mortality rates due to NCDs declined during the study period; however, after 2015, the curve reversed, and rates fluctuated and tended to increase. CONCLUSION: Our findings highlighted a decline in premature mortality rates from NCDs nationwide and in all states. There was a greater reduction in deaths from cardiovascular diseases, followed by respiratory diseases, and we observed a minor reduction for those from diabetes and neoplasms. The observed fluctuations in mortality rates over the last 3 years indicate that if no further action is taken, we may not achieve the NCD Sustainable Development Goals. These findings draw attention to the consequences of austerity measures in a socially unequal setting with great regional disparities in which the majority of the population is dependent on state social policies.

Changes in the quality of cause-of-death statistics in Brazil: garbage codes among registered deaths in 1996-2016.

BACKGROUND: Registered causes in vital statistics classified as garbage codes (GC) are considered indicators of quality of cause-of-death data. Our aim was to describe temporal changes in this quality in Brazil, and the leading GCs according to levels assembled for the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. We also assessed socioeconomic differences in the burden of different levels of GCs at a regional level. METHODS: We extracted data from the Brazilian Mortality Information System from 1996 to 2016. All three- and four-digit ICD-10 codes considered GC were selected and classified into four categories, according to the GBD study proposal. GC levels 1 and 2 are the most damaging unusable codes, or major GCs. Proportionate distribution of deaths by GC levels according selected variables were performed. Age-standardized mortality rates after correction of underreporting of deaths were calculated to investigate temporal relationships as was the linear association adjusted for completeness between GC rates in states and the Sociodemographic Index (SDI) from the GBD study, for 1996-2005 and 2006-2016. We classified Brazilian states into three classes of development by applying tertiles cutoffs in the SDI state-level estimates. RESULTS: Age-standardized mortality rates due to GCs in Brazil decreased from 1996 to 2016, particularly level 1 GCs. The most important GC groups were ill-defined causes (level 1) in 1996, and pneumonia unspecified (level 4) in 2016. At state level, there was a significant inverse association between SDI and the rate of level 1-2 GCs in 1996-2005, but both SDI and completeness had a non-expected significant direct association with levels 3-4. In 2006-2016, states with higher SDIs tended to have lower rates of all types of GCs. Mortality rates due to major GCs decreased in all three SDI classes in 1996-2016, but GC levels 3-4 decreased only in the high SDI category. States classified in the low or medium SDI groups were responsible for the most important decline of major GCs. CONCLUSION: Occurrence of major GCs are associated with socioeconomic determinants over time in Brazil. Their reduction with decreasing disparity in rates between socioeconomic groups indicates progress in reducing inequalities and strengthening cause-of-death statistics in the country.

The burden of non-communicable diseases attributable to high BMI in Brazil, 1990-2017: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence and burden of disease resulting from obesity have increased worldwide. In Brazil, more than half of the population is now overweight. However, the impact of this growing risk factor on disease burden remains inexact. Using the 2017 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) results, this study sought to estimate mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost to non-communicable diseases caused by high body mass index (BMI) in both sexes and across age categories. This study also aimed to describe the prevalence of overweight and obesity throughout the states of Brazil. METHODS: Age-standardized prevalence of overweight and obesity were estimated between 1990 and 2017. A comparative risk assessment was applied to estimate DALYs and deaths for non-communicable diseases and for all causes linked to high BMI. RESULTS: The prevalence of overweight and obesity increased during the period of analysis. Overall, age-standardized prevalence of obesity in Brazil was higher in females (29.8%) than in males (24.6%) in 2017; however, since 1990, males have presented greater rise in obesity (244.1%) than females (165.7%). Increases in prevalence burden were greatest in states from the North and Northeast regions of Brazil. Overall, burden due to high BMI also increased from 1990 to 2017. In 2017, high BMI was responsible for 12.3% (8.8-16.1%) of all deaths and 8.4% (6.3-10.7%) of total DALYs lost to non-communicable diseases, up from 7.2% (4.1-10.8%), and 4.6% (2.4-6.0%) in 1990, respectively. Change due to risk exposure is the leading contributor to the growth of BMI burden in Brazil. In 2017, high BMI was responsible for 165,954 deaths and 5,095,125 DALYs. Cardiovascular disease and diabetes have proven to be the most prevalent causes of deaths, along with DALYs caused by high BMI, regardless of sex or state. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates increasing age-standardized prevalence of obesity in all Brazilian states. High BMI plays an important role in disease burdens in terms of cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, and all causes of mortality. Assessing levels and trends in exposures to high BMI and the resulting disease burden highlights the current priority for primary prevention and public health action initiatives focused on obesity.

Clinical practice guidelines in Brazil - developing a national programme.

In Brazil, governmental and non-governmental organisations develop practice guidelines (PGs) in order to optimise patient care. Although important improvements have been made over the past years, many of these documents still lack transparency and methodological rigour. In order to conduct a critical analysis and define future steps in PG development in Brazil, we carried out a structured assessment of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT analysis) for the development of a national guideline programme. Participants consisted of academia, methodologists, medical societies and healthcare system representatives. In summary, the PG development process has improved in Brazil and current investments in methodological research and capacity-building are ongoing. Despite the centralised processes for public PGs, standardised procedures for their development are not well established and human resources are insufficient in number and capacity to develop the amount of trustworthy documents needed. Brazil's capacity could be strengthened and initial efforts have been made such as the adoption of standards proposed by world-renowned institutions in PG development and enhancement of the involvement of key stakeholders. Further steps involve the alignment between health technology assessment and PG processes for synergy and the development of a national network to promote the interaction between groups involved in the development of PGs. The lessons learned from this paper could be used to foster debate on guideline development, especially for countries facing similar threats on this topic.

Homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and metabolic syndrome at baseline of a multicentric Brazilian cohort: ELSA-Brasil study / Modelo de avaliação da homeostase de resistência à insulina (HOMA-IR) e síndrome metabólica na linha de base de uma coorte brasileira multicêntrica: estudo ELSA-Brasil / Modelo homeostático para evaluar la resistencia a la insulina (HOMA-IR) y síndrome metabólico en la línea de base de una cohorte brasileña multicéntrica: estudio ELSA-Brasil

Abstract: Homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) is a method to measure insulin resistance. HOMA-IR cut-offs for identifying metabolic syndrome might vary across populations and body mass index (BMI) levels. We aimed to investigate HOMA-insulin resistance cut-offs that best discriminate individuals with insulin resistance and with metabolic syndrome for each BMI category in a large sample of adults without diabetes in the baseline of the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil). Among the 12,313 participants with mean age of 51.2 (SD 8.9) years, the prevalence of metabolic syndrome was 34.6%, and 60.1% had overweight or obesity. The prevalence of metabolic syndrome among normal weight, overweight and obesity categories were, respectively, 13%, 43.2% and 60.7%. The point of maximum combined sensitivity and specificity of HOMA-IR to discriminate the metabolic syndrome was 2.35 in the whole sample, with increasing values at higher BMI categories. This investigation contributes to better understanding HOMA-IR values associated with insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome in a large Brazilian adult sample, and that use of cut-off points according to ROC curve may be the better strategy. It also suggests that different values might be appropriate across BMI categories.

Resumo: O modelo de avaliação da homeostase da resistência à insulina (HOMA-IR) é um método para medir a resistência à insulina. Os pontos de corte do HOMA-IR para identificar a síndrome metabólica podem variar entre as populações e os níveis de índice de massa corporal (IMC). Nosso objetivo foi investigar os pontos de corte do HOMA-IR que melhor discriminam indivíduos com resistência à insulina e com síndrome metabólica para cada categoria de IMC em uma grande amostra de adultos sem diabetes na linha de base do Estudo Longitudinal de Saúde do Adulto (ELSA-Brasil). Entre os 12.313 participantes com média de idade de 51,2 (DP 8,9) anos, a prevalência de síndrome metabólica foi de 34,6%, e 60,1% apresentavam sobrepeso ou obesidade. As prevalências de síndrome metabólica nas categorias de peso normal, sobrepeso e obesidade foram, respectivamente, 13%, 43,2% e 60,7%. O ponto de máxima sensibilidade e especificidade combinadas do HOMA-IR para discriminar a síndrome metabólica foi de 2,35 em toda a amostra, com valores crescentes nas categorias de IMC mais elevadas. Esta investigação contribui para o melhor entendimento dos valores de HOMA-IR associados à resistência à insulina e síndrome metabólica em uma grande amostra de adultos brasileiros, e que o uso de pontos de corte de acordo com a curva ROC pode ser a melhor estratégia. Também sugere que valores diferentes podem ser apropriados nas categorias de IMC.

Resumen: El modelo homeostático para evaluar la resistencia a la insulina (HOMA-IR) es un método para medir la resistencia a la insulina. Los cortes HOMA-IR para identificar el síndrome metabólico pueden variar entre las poblaciones y los niveles del índice de masa corporal (IMC). El objetivo fue investigar los cortes de HOMA-IR que mejor discriminaban individuos con resistencia a la insulina y con síndrome metabólico para cada categoría de IMC, en una extensa muestra de adultos sin diabetes en la base de referencia del Estudio Longitudinal de Salud del Adulto (ELSA-Brasil). Entre los 12.313 participantes con una media de edad de 51,2 años (DE 8,9), la prevalencia de síndrome metabólico fue 34,6%, y un 60,1% sufría sobrepeso u obesidad. La prevalencia de síndrome metabólico entre las categorías: peso normal, sobrepeso y obesidad fueron respectivamente, 13%, 43,2% y 60,7%. El punto de máxima sensibilidad combinada y especificidad de HOMA-IR para discriminar el síndrome metabólico fue 2,35 en toda la muestra, con valores crecientes en las categorías de IMC más altas. Esta investigación contribuye a entender mejor los valores HOMA-IR, asociados con resistencia a la insulina y síndrome metabólico en una gran muestra de adultos brasileños, además del planteamiento de que el uso de puntos de corte según la curva ROC es quizás la mejor estrategia a seguir. También sugiere que valores diferentes pueden ser apropiados a través de las categorías de IMC.

Impact of improved low-density lipoprotein cholesterol assessment on guideline classification in the modern treatment era-Results from a racially diverse Brazilian cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: The Martin/Hopkins low-density lipoprotein cholesterol equation (LDL-CN) was previously demonstrated as more accurate than Friedewald LDL-C estimation (LDL-CF) in a North American database not able to take race into account. OBJECTIVES: We hypothesized that LDL-CN would be more accurate than LDL-CF and correlate better with LDL particle number (LDL-P) in a racially diverse Brazilian cohort. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional analysis of 4897 participants in the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health, assessing LDL-CF and LDL-CN accuracy via overlap with ultracentrifugation-based measurement among clinical guideline LDL-C categories as well as mg/dL and percent error differences. We analyzed by triglyceride categories and correlated LDL-C estimation with LDL-P. RESULTS: LDL-CN demonstrated improved accuracy at 70 to <100 and <70 mg/dL (P < .001), with large errors ≥20 mg/dL about 9 times more frequent in LDL-CF at LDL-C <70 mg/dL, mainly due to underestimation. Among individuals with LDL-C <70 mg/dL and triglycerides ≥150 mg/dL, 65% vs 100% of ultracentrifugation-based low-density lipoprotein cholesterol calculation fell within appropriate categories of estimated LDL-CF and LDL-CN, respectively (P < .001). Similar results were observed when analyzed for age, sex, and race. Participants at LDL-C <70 and 70 to <100 mg/dL with discordantly elevated LDL-CN vs LDL-CF had a 58.5% and 41.5% higher LDL-P than those with concordance (P < .0001), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In a diverse Brazilian cohort, LDL-CN was more accurate than LDL-CF at low LDL-C and high triglycerides. LDL-CN may avoid underestimation of LDL-C and better reflect atherogenic lipid burden in low particle size, high particle count states.

Economic burden of diabetes in Brazil in 2014.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes and its complications produce significant clinical, economic and social impact. The knowledge of the costs of diabetes generates subsidies to maintain the financial sustainability of public health and social security systems, guiding research and health care priorities. AIMS: The aim of this study was to estimate the economic burden of diabetes in Brazilian adults in 2014, considering the perspectives of the public health care system and the society. METHODS: A prevalence-based approach was used to estimate the annual health resource utilization and costs attributable to diabetes and related conditions. The healthcare system perspective considered direct medical costs related to outpatient and hospitalization costs. The societal perspective considered non-medical (transportation and dietary products) and indirect costs (productivity loss, disability, and premature retirement). Outpatient costs included medicines, health professional visits, exams, home glucose monitoring, ophthalmic procedures, and costs related to end stage renal disease. The costs of hospitalization attributed to diabetes related conditions were estimated using attributable risk methodology. Costs were estimated in Brazilian currency, and then converted to international dollars (2014). RESULTS: Based on a national self-reported prevalence of 6.2%, the total cost of diabetes in 2014 was Int$ 15.67 billion, including Int$ 6.89 billion in direct medical costs (44%), Int$ 3.69 billion in non-medical costs (23.6%) and Int$ 5.07 billion in indirect costs (32.4%). Outpatient costs summed Int$ 6.62 billion and the costs of 314,334 hospitalizations attributed to diabetes and related conditions was Int$ 264.9 million. Most hospitalizations were due to cardiovascular diseases (47.9%), followed by diabetes itself (18%), and renal diseases (13.6%). Diet and transportation costs were estimated at Int$ 3.2 billion and Int$ 462.3 million, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our results showed a substantial economic burden of diabetes in Brazil, and most likely are underrated as they are based on an underestimated prevalence of diabetes. Healthcare policies aiming at diabetes prevention and control are urgently sought.

Context-dependence of race self-classification: Results from a highly mixed and unequal middle-income country.

Ethnic-racial classification criteria are widely recognized to vary according to historical, cultural and political contexts. In Brazil, the strong influence of individual socio-economic factors on race/colour self-classification is well known. With the expansion of genomic technologies, the use of genomic ancestry has been suggested as a substitute for classification procedures such as self-declaring race, as if they represented the same concept. We investigated the association between genomic ancestry, the racial composition of census tracts and individual socioeconomic factors and self-declared race/colour in a cohort of 15,105 Brazilians. Results show that the probability of self-declaring as black or brown increases according to the proportion of African ancestry and varies widely among cities. In Porto Alegre, where most of the population is white, with every 10% increase in the proportion of African ancestry, the odds of self-declaring as black increased 14 times (95%CI 6.08-32.81). In Salvador, where most of the population is black or brown, that increase was of 3.98 times (95%CI 2.96-5.35). The racial composition of the area of residence was also associated with the probability of self-declaring as black or brown. Every 10% increase in the proportion of black and brown inhabitants in the residential census tract increased the odds of self-declaring as black by 1.33 times (95%CI 1.24-1.42). Ancestry alone does not explain self-declared race/colour. An emphasis on multiple situational contexts (both individual and collective) provides a more comprehensive framework for the study of the predictors of self-declared race/colour, a highly relevant construct in many different scenarios, such as public policy, sociology and medicine.