Ending AIDS as a public health threat by 2030: Time to reset targets for 2025.

Paul De Lay and co-authors introduce a Collection on the design of targets for ending the AIDS epidemic.

The case for an HIV cure and how to get there.

In light of the increasing global burden of new HIV infections, growing financial requirements, and shifting funding landscape, the global health community must accelerate the development and delivery of an HIV cure to complement existing prevention modalities. An effective curative intervention could prevent new infections, overcome the limitations of antiretroviral treatment, combat stigma and discrimination, and provide a sustainable financial solution for pandemic control. We propose steps to plan for an HIV cure now, including defining a target product profile and establishing the HIV Cure Africa Acceleration Partnership (HCAAP), a multidisciplinary public-private partnership that will catalyse and promote HIV cure research through diverse stakeholder engagement. HCAAP will convene stakeholders, including people living with HIV, at an early stage to accelerate the design, social acceptability, and rapid adoption of HIV-cure products.

Can Changes in Service Delivery Models Improve Program Quality and Efficiency? A Closer Look at HIV Programs in Kenya and Uganda.

BACKGROUND: With the scale-up of antiretroviral treatment, many health facilities in low- and middle-income countries have implemented innovative practices targeted at overcoming operational challenges and delivering efficient quality HIV services. However, many of these practices remain largely unexplored as a means to better reach the global 90-90-90 targets. SETTING: A study was conducted on selected facilities in districts of country programs supported by The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria. The aims of the study were to understand how facilities seek to improve the delivery and uptake of HIV services and to examine what innovative practices might be contributing to their success. METHODS: The study used a qualitative approach through observations, document reviews, and semistructured interviews with site management and clinical staff to identify service delivery innovations in 30 health facilities in Kenya and Uganda. RESULTS: Eleven innovative practices were observed along the HIV care cascade. These practices led to improvements in the quality of testing, treatment, and retention across the facilities. Effective human resource and data management processes also enabled the implementation of these innovative practices. CONCLUSIONS: Many facilities use innovative practices along the HIV care cascade to address bottlenecks and challenges. These have the potential to improve the quality and efficiency of service delivery and support the attainment of the 90-90-90 treatment targets. Replicating these practices would require further implementation research and a mind shift of donors, governments, and implementers from a metric of coverage to a stronger focus on efficiency and impact.

Optimum resource allocation to reduce HIV incidence across sub-Saharan Africa: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Advances in HIV prevention methods offer promise to accelerate declines in incidence, but how these methods can be deployed to have the best effect on the heterogeneous landscape and drivers of the pandemic remains unclear. We postulated that use of epidemic heterogeneity to inform the allocation of resources for combination HIV prevention could enhance the impact of HIV funding across sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: We developed a compartmental mathematical model of HIV transmission and disease progression by risk group to subnational resolution in 18 countries, capturing 80% of the adult HIV burden in sub-Saharan Africa. Adults aged 15-49 years were grouped by risk of HIV acquisition and transmission, and those older than 50 years were assumed to have negligible risk. For each top-level administrative division, we calibrated the model to historical data for HIV prevalence, sexual behaviours, treatment scale-up, and demographics. We then evaluated four strategies for allocation of prevention funding over a 15 year period from 2016 to 2030, which exploited epidemic differences between subnational regions to varying degrees. FINDINGS: For a $US20 billion representative expenditure over the 15 year period, scale-up of prevention along present funding channels could avert 5·3 million infections relative to no scale-up. Prioritisation of key populations could avert 3·7 million more infections than present funding channels, and additional prioritisation by within-country geography could avert 400 000 more infections. Removal of national constraints could avert a further 600 000 infections. Risk prioritisation has greater marginal impact than geographical prioritisation across multiple expenditure levels. However, targeting by both risk and geography is best for total impact and could achieve gains of up to three times more than present channels. A shift from the present pattern to the optimum pattern would rebalance resources towards more cost-effective interventions and emerging epidemics. INTERPRETATION: If domestic and international funders were to align strategically to build an aggregate funding pattern that is guided by the epidemiology of HIV, and particularly by the emerging understanding of local dynamics and epidemic drivers, more cost-effective and impactful HIV prevention investments could be achieved across sub-Saharan Africa. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Building from the HIV Response toward Universal Health Coverage.

Jonathan Jay and colleagues draw lessons from the the global HIV response that could help guide the universal health coverage movement.

Maximising the effect of combination HIV prevention through prioritisation of the people and places in greatest need: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological data show substantial variation in the risk of HIV infection between communities within African countries. We hypothesised that focusing appropriate interventions on geographies and key populations at high risk of HIV infection could improve the effect of investments in the HIV response. METHODS: With use of Kenya as a case study, we developed a mathematical model that described the spatiotemporal evolution of the HIV epidemic and that incorporated the demographic, behavioural, and programmatic differences across subnational units. Modelled interventions (male circumcision, behaviour change communication, early antiretoviral therapy, and pre-exposure prophylaxis) could be provided to different population groups according to their risk behaviours or their location. For a given national budget, we compared the effect of a uniform intervention strategy, in which the same complement of interventions is provided across the country, with a focused strategy that tailors the set of interventions and amount of resources allocated to the local epidemiological conditions. FINDINGS: A uniformly distributed combination of HIV prevention interventions could reduce the total number of new HIV infections by 40% during a 15-year period. With no additional spending, this effect could be increased by 14% during the 15 years-almost 100,000 extra infections, and result in 33% fewer new HIV infections occurring every year by the end of the period if the focused approach is used to tailor resource allocation to reflect patterns in local epidemiology. The cumulative difference in new infections during the 15-year projection period depends on total budget and costs of interventions, and could be as great as 150,000 (a cumulative difference as great as 22%) under different assumptions about the unit costs of intervention. INTERPRETATION: The focused approach achieves greater effect than the uniform approach despite exactly the same investment. Through prioritisation of the people and locations at greatest risk of infection, and adaption of the interventions to reflect the local epidemiological context, the focused approach could substantially increase the efficiency and effectiveness of investments in HIV prevention. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and UNAIDS.

The new role of antiretrovirals in combination HIV prevention: a mathematical modelling analysis.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Antiretroviral drugs can reduce HIV acquisition among uninfected individuals (as pre-exposure prophylaxis: PrEP) and reduce onward transmission among infected individuals (as antiretroviral treatment: ART). We estimate the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of antiretroviral-based HIV prevention strategies. DESIGN AND METHODS: We developed and analysed a mathematical model of a hyperendemic setting with relatively low levels of condom use. We estimated the prevention impact and cost of various PrEP interventions, assuming a fixed amount of spending on PrEP; investigated the optimal role of PrEP and earlier ART in terms of epidemiological impact and cost; and systematically explored the impact of earlier ART and PrEP, in combination with medical male circumcision services; on HIV transmission. RESULTS: A PrEP intervention is unlikely to generate a large reduction in HIV incidence, unless the cost is substantially reduced. In terms of infections averted and quality adjusted life years gained, at a population-level maximal cost-effectiveness is achieved by providing ART to more infected individuals earlier rather than providing PrEP to uninfected individuals. However, early ART alone cannot reduce HIV incidence to very low levels and PrEP can be used cost-effectively in addition to earlier ART to reduce incidence further. If implemented in combination and at ambitious coverage levels, medical male circumcision, earlier ART and PrEP could produce dramatic declines in HIV incidence, but not stop transmission completely. CONCLUSION: A combination prevention approach based on proven-efficacy interventions provides the best opportunity for achieving the much hoped for prevention advance and curbing the spread of HIV.

Use of generic antiretroviral agents and cost savings in PEPFAR treatment programs.

CONTEXT: One of the biggest hurdles to the rapid scale-up of antiretroviral therapy in the developing world was the price of antiretroviral drugs (ARVs). Modification of an existing US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) process to expedite review and approval of generic ARVs quickly resulted in a large number of FDA-tentatively approved ARVs available for use by the US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR). OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the uptake of generic ARVs among PEPFAR-supported programs in Guyana, Haiti, Vietnam, and 13 countries in Africa, and changes over time in ARV use and costs. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: An annual survey from 2005 to 2008 of ARVs purchased in 16 countries by PEPFAR implementing and procurement partners (organizations using PEPFAR funding to purchase ARVs). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Drug expenditures, ARV types and volumes (assessed per pack, a 1-month supply), proportion of generic procurement across years and countries, and cost savings from generic procurement. RESULTS: ARV expenditures increased from $116.8 million (2005) to $202.2 million (2008); and procurement increased from 6.2 million to 22.1 million monthly packs. The proportion spent on generic ARVs increased from 9.17% (95% confidence interval [CI], 9.17%-9.18%) in 2005 to 76.41% (95% CI, 76.41%-76.42%) in 2008 (P < .001), and the proportion of generic packs procured increased from 14.8% (95% CI, 14.79%-14.84%) in 2005 to 89.33% (95% CI, 89.32%-89.34%) in 2008 (P < .001). In 2008, there were 8 PEPFAR programs that procured at least 90.0% of ARV packs in generic form; South Africa had the lowest generic procurement (24.7%; 95% CI, 24.6%-24.8%). Procurement of generic fixed-dose combinations increased from 33.3% (95% CI, 33.24%-33.43%) in 2005 to 42.73% (95% CI, 42.71%-42.75%) in 2008. Estimated yearly savings generated through generic ARV use were $8,108,444 in 2005, $24,940,014 in 2006, $75,645,816 in 2007, and $214,648,982 in 2008, a total estimated savings of $323,343,256. CONCLUSION: Among PEPFAR-supported programs in 16 countries, availability of generic ARVs was associated with increased ARV procurement and substantial estimated cost savings.

Planning for pre-exposure prophylaxis to prevent HIV transmission: challenges and opportunities.

There are currently several ongoing or planned trials evaluating the efficacy of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) as a preventative approach to reducing the transmission of HIV. PrEP may prove ineffective, demonstrate partial efficacy, or show high efficacy and have the potential to reduce HIV infection in a significant way. However, in addition to the trial results, it is important that issues related to delivery, implementation and further research are also discussed. As a part of the ongoing discussion, in June 2009, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation sponsored a Planning for PrEP conference with stakeholders to review expected trial results, outline responsible educational approaches, and develop potential delivery and implementation strategies. The conference reinforced the need for continued and sustained dialogue to identify where PrEP implementation may fit best within an integrated HIV prevention package. This paper identifies the key action points that emerged from the Planning for PrEP meeting.

Lessons learned from PEPFAR.

The United States President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), launched by President Bush with strong bipartisan support, was a historic moment in development both in size and scope. With $18.8 billion across its first 5 years, it is the largest international health initiative in history for a specific disease. In scope, it is the first global initiative to tackle a chronic disease and was based in a new philosophical foundation centered in country ownership, a results-based accountable approach, the engagement of all sectors, and good governance. With resources and a strong intellectual base, PEPFAR saved lives and provided lessons learned for effective development.

An assessment of interactions between global health initiatives and country health systems.

Since 2000, the emergence of several large disease-specific global health initiatives (GHIs) has changed the way in which international donors provide assistance for public health. Some critics have claimed that these initiatives burden health systems that are already fragile in countries with few resources, whereas others have asserted that weak health systems prevent progress in meeting disease-specific targets. So far, most of the evidence for this debate has been provided by speculation and anecdotes. We use a review and analysis of existing data, and 15 new studies that were submitted to WHO for the purpose of writing this Report to describe the complex nature of the interplay between country health systems and GHIs. We suggest that this Report provides the most detailed compilation of published and emerging evidence so far, and provides a basis for identification of the ways in which GHIs and health systems can interact to mutually reinforce their effects. On the basis of the findings, we make some general recommendations and identify a series of action points for international partners, governments, and other stakeholders that will help ensure that investments in GHIs and country health systems can fulfil their potential to produce comprehensive and lasting results in disease-specific work, and advance the general public health agenda. The target date for achievement of the health-related Millennium Development Goals is drawing close, and the economic downturn threatens to undermine the improvements in health outcomes that have been achieved in the past few years. If adjustments to the interactions between GHIs and country health systems will improve efficiency, equity, value for money, and outcomes in global public health, then these opportunities should not be missed.