Changes in global mortality from aortic aneurysm.

OBJECTIVE: Globally, there has been a marked increase in aortic aneurysm-related deaths between 1990 and 2019. We sought to understand the underlying etiologies for this mortality trend by examining secular changes in both demographics and the prevalence of risk factors, and how these changes may vary across sociodemographic index (SDI) regions. METHODS: We queried the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) for aortic aneurysm deaths from 1990 to 2019 overall and by age group. We identified the percentage of aortic aneurysm deaths attributable to each risk factor identified by GBD modeling (smoking, hypertension, lead exposure, and high sodium diet) and their respective changes over time. We then analyzed aneurysm mortality by SDI region. RESULTS: The number of aortic aneurysm-related deaths have increased from 94,968 in 1990 to 172,427 in 2019, signifying an 81.6% increase, which greatly exceeds the 18.2% increase in all-cause mortality observed over the same time interval. Examination of age-specific mortality demonstrated that the number of aortic aneurysm deaths markedly correlated with advancing age. However, when considering rate of death rather than mortality count, overall age-standardized death rates decreased 18% from 2.72 per 100,000 in 1990 to 2.21 per 100,000 in 2019. Analysis of the specific risk factors associated with aneurysm death revealed that the percentage of deaths attributable to smoking decreased from 45.6% in 1990 to 34.6% in 2019, and deaths attributable to hypertension decreased from 38.7% to 34.7%. Globally, hypertension surpassed smoking as the leading risk factor. The reported rate of death was consistently greater as SDI increased, and this effect was most pronounced among low-middle and middle SDI regions (173.2% and 170.4%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Despite an overall increase in the number of aneurysm deaths, there was a decrease in the age-standardized death rate, demonstrating that the observed increased number of aortic aneurysm deaths between 1990 and 2019 was primarily driven by an overall increase in the age of the global population. Fortunately, it appears that the increase in overall aneurysm-related deaths has been modulated by improved risk factor modification, in particular smoking. Given the rise in aneurysm-related deaths, global expansion of vascular specialty capabilities is warranted and will serve to amplify improvements in population-based aneurysm health achieved with risk factor control.

Trends of Concomitant Diabetes and Peripheral Artery Disease and Lower Extremity Amputation in US Medicare Patients, 2007 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies demonstrate geographic and racial/ethnic variation in diagnosis and complications of diabetes and peripheral artery disease (PAD). However, recent trends for patients diagnosed with both PAD and diabetes are lacking. We assessed the period prevalence of concurrent diabetes and PAD across the United States from 2007 to 2019 and regional and racial/ethnic variation in amputations among Medicare patients. METHODS: Using Medicare claims from 2007 to 2019, we identified patients with both diabetes and PAD. We calculated period prevalence of concomitant diabetes and PAD and incident cases of diabetes and PAD for every year. Patients were followed to identify amputations, and results were stratified by race/ethnicity and hospital referral region. RESULTS: 9 410 785 patients with diabetes and PAD were identified (mean age, 72.8 [SD, 10.94] years; 58.6% women, 74.7% White, 13.2% Black, 7.3% Hispanic, 2.8% Asian/API, and 0.6% Native American). Period prevalence of diabetes and PAD was 23 per 1000 beneficiaries. We observed a 33% relative decrease in annual new diagnoses throughout the study. All racial/ethnic groups experienced a similar decline in new diagnoses. Black and Hispanic patients had on average a 50% greater rate of disease compared with White patients. One- and 5-year amputation rates remained stable at ≈1.5% and 3%, respectively. Native American, Black, and Hispanic patients were at greater risk of amputation compared with White patients at 1- and 5-year time points (5-year rate ratio range, 1.22-3.17). Across US regions, we observed differential amputation rates, with an inverse relationship between the prevalence of concomitant diabetes and PAD and overall amputation rates. CONCLUSIONS: Significant regional and racial/ethnic variation exists in the incidence of concomitant diabetes and PAD among Medicare patients. Black patients in areas with the lowest rates of PAD and diabetes are at disproportionally higher risk for amputation. Furthermore, areas with higher prevalence of PAD and diabetes have the lowest rates of amputation.

Using the Evaluating Devices Using Claims and RegisTry Data (EDUCATe) Plan within the Vascular Implant Surveillance and Interventional Outcomes Network (VISION) to Analyze the Long-Term Outcomes following Endovascular Aortic Aneurysm Repair.

BACKGROUND: Implanted devices undergo clinical trials to assess their safety and effectiveness. However, pivotal device trials are limited in their follow-up while postmarket surveillance may incompletely capture late failure. Linking clinical trials to Medicare claims can address these limitations. This study matched patients from investigational device exemption (IDE) clinical trials for endovascular aortic aneurysm repair (EVAR) to Medicare claims-based registry data to compare long-term device outcomes between the 2 sources. METHODS: Patient-level data from 2 industry-sponsored IDE trials of EVAR devices was provided by a single industry partner. Trial data were matched at the patient level to data from the Vascular Implant Surveillance and Interventional Outcomes Network (VISION), a registry that is a part of the Society for Vascular Surgery Patient Safety Organization. The primary outcomes analyzed were survival and freedom from aneurysm-related reintervention. RESULTS: Of 159 clinical trial patients, 134 were eligible for claims-based matching and 115 (85.5%) were successfully matched to VISION registry data. For the matched cohort, the Kaplan-Meier estimated survival was 94.8% at 1 year, 82.6% at 3 years, and 68.1% at 5 years. Estimates for freedom from reintervention were 90% at 1 year, 82.4% at 3 years, and 78.1% at 5 years. The estimates for survival were nearly identical between the clinical trial data and that found in the VISION data (log-rank P = 0.89). Freedom from reintervention was similar between the groups, with IDE trial reported freedom from reintervention of 87.3% and 73.3%, compared to VISION of 92.6% and 83% at 1 and 5 years, respectively (log-rank P = 0.13). CONCLUSIONS: Clinical trial patients who undergo EVAR can be successfully matched to claims-based registry data to improve long-term device surveillance and outcomes reporting. Claims-based results agreed well with IDE trial results for patients through 5 years, supporting the accuracy of claims-based data for longer-term surveillance. Linking clinical trial and claims-based registry data can lead to robust device monitoring.

Regional Differences in Procedural Care of Hemorrhoid Management in Medicare Patients; Unwarranted Variation in Clinical Practice for a Medical-First Problem.

INTRODUCTION: Hemorrhoid disease is very common problem in the Medicare population. Prior work has shown significant variation in county-level practices of hemorrhoidectomy; however, regional variation of rubber band ligation (RBL) has yet to be assessed. This is important as many different practitioners from different specialties can perform this procedure repeatedly in an office-based setting. We aim to evaluate the variation of RBL and hemorrhoidectomy over a 7-y period. METHODS: Using Medicare part B claims data, we identified all beneficiaries >65 y seen for hemorrhoid disease between 2006 and 2013. Current Procedural Terminology (CPT) codes were used to identify all events for hemorrhoidectomy (46083, 46250, 46255, 46257, 46260, and 46261) or RBL (46221) by hospital referral region (HRR). We determined HRR-level rates of hemorrhoidectomy and RBL per 1000 beneficiaries adjusted for age, sex, and race. We calculated annual coefficients of variation (SD × 100/mean) for hemorrhoidectomy and RBL. RESULTS: 1.2 to 1.3 million fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries were seen annually for evaluation of hemorrhoid disease. Mean-adjusted annual rates for hemorrhoidectomy by HRRs varied from 4.34 to 63.03 per 1000 beneficiaries. Mean-adjusted rates of RBL by HRRs varied from 7.06 to 163 per 1000 beneficiaries. Annual procedural coefficients of variation over the study period were 41-48 (high) for hemorrhoidectomy and 69-74 (very high) for RBL. CONCLUSIONS: While continued high variation exists for hemorrhoidectomy, there is very high variation for RBL between HRRs in treating hemorrhoid disease among Medicare beneficiaries. There are substantial Medicare expenditures in this high-volume population that are likely unwarranted.

The global burden of peripheral artery disease.

BACKGROUND: Previous efforts to characterize the burden of peripheral artery disease (PAD) have focused on national populations. A need for a more detailed analysis of how PAD impacts the global population has been identified. Our objective was to study in greater detail the global burden of PAD, including its impact on mortality, over the past three decades. METHODS: Using data and models from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study, we estimated the prevalence, years of life lost, years lived with disability and disability-adjusted life-years (a measure accounting for incurred morbidity and mortality), attributable to PAD. We analyzed results over time and stratified by sex, age, and sociodemographic index (SDI) group. We compared PAD with other atherosclerosis-related conditions and assessed the contribution of risk factors to PAD disability-adjusted life-years. RESULTS: We observed a 72% increase in the global prevalence of PAD from an estimated 65,764,499 persons in 1990 to 113,443,016 in 2019. Prevalence per 100,000 persons increased 13% and the prevalence per 100,000 age-standardized decreased 22%. Similar patterns were seen for years of live lost, mortality, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years. The prevalence and disability were higher among women, whereas mortality and years of life lost were higher among men. Disease burden increased with increasing SDI. These increases in PAD were in contrast with global trends for the overall burden of ischemic heart disease and ischemic stroke, which had decreasing prevalence and disease-related mortality over the same time frame. Overall, only approximately 55% of PAD disease burden could be attributed to identified risk factors, with tobacco use, diabetes, and hypertension being the three major contributors in all SDI groups. CONCLUSIONS: The global prevalence and mortality associated with PAD has increased substantially, in contrast with other forms of ischemic cardiovascular disease. Globally, there is a growing need for vascular surgical resources to manage PAD, as well as public health efforts to address risk factors for this increasing health threat.

Using a cohort study of diabetes and peripheral artery disease to compare logistic regression and machine learning via random forest modeling.

BACKGROUND: This study illustrates the use of logistic regression and machine learning methods, specifically random forest models, in health services research by analyzing outcomes for a cohort of patients with concomitant peripheral artery disease and diabetes mellitus. METHODS: Cohort study using fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries in 2015 who were newly diagnosed with peripheral artery disease and diabetes mellitus. Exposure variables include whether patients received preventive measures in the 6 months following their index date: HbA1c test, foot exam, or vascular imaging study. Outcomes include any reintervention, lower extremity amputation, and death. We fit both logistic regression models as well as random forest models. RESULTS: There were 88,898 fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries diagnosed with peripheral artery disease and diabetes mellitus in our cohort. The rate of preventative treatments in the first six months following diagnosis were 52% (n = 45,971) with foot exams, 43% (n = 38,393) had vascular imaging, and 50% (n = 44,181) had an HbA1c test. The directionality of the influence for all covariates considered matched those results found with the random forest and logistic regression models. The most predictive covariate in each approach differs as determined by the t-statistics from logistic regression and variable importance (VI) in the random forest model. For amputation we see age 85 + (t = 53.17) urban-residing (VI = 83.42), and for death (t = 65.84, VI = 88.76) and reintervention (t = 34.40, VI = 81.22) both models indicate age is most predictive. CONCLUSIONS: The use of random forest models to analyze data and provide predictions for patients holds great potential in identifying modifiable patient-level and health-system factors and cohorts for increased surveillance and intervention to improve outcomes for patients. Random forests are incredibly high performing models with difficult interpretation most ideally suited for times when accurate prediction is most desirable and can be used in tandem with more common approaches to provide a more thorough analysis of observational data.

Epidemiology of peripheral artery disease.

Peripheral artery disease (PAD) is the clinical manifestation of atherosclerosis that primarily affects peripheral arteries within the lower extremities. In this brief review, we describe the epidemiology and burden of disease of PAD within the United States, particularly among high-risk populations. Although the prevalence of PAD continues to increase and is typically higher among the elderly as well as men, women in lower socioeconomic strata are affected at rates two times that of men. Among racial/ethnic groups, Black and African-American patients both experience higher rates of disease as well as lower rates of access to preventative care. Moreover, despite an overall decrease in amputation rates among all patients with PAD, high-risk populations remain disproportionally affected. Specifically, patients in rural areas, African-American and Native-American patients, and those of low socioeconomic status carry the highest risk of amputation. Efforts to improve care among PAD patients should target these high-risk populations and offer comprehensive, evidence-based preventative care. Wide adoption and integration of these practices into comprehensive care models may help to mitigate amputation in the highest-risk populations. As our treatment pathways continue to evolve, we must place further emphasis on patient input and quality of life as we work toward continual improvement in the care of patients with PAD.

Epidemiology and Risk of Amputation in Patients With Diabetes Mellitus and Peripheral Artery Disease.

Peripheral artery disease (PAD) stems from atherosclerosis of lower extremity arteries with resultant arterial narrowing or occlusion. The most severe form of PAD is termed chronic limb-threatening ischemia and carries a significant risk of limb loss and cardiovascular mortality. Diabetes mellitus is known to increase the incidence of PAD, accelerate disease progression, and increase disease severity. Patients with concomitant diabetes mellitus and PAD are at high risk for major complications, such as amputation. Despite a decrease in the overall number of amputations performed annually in the United States, amputation rates among those with both diabetes mellitus and PAD have remained stable or even increased in high-risk subgroups. Within this cohort, there is significant regional, racial/ethnic, and socioeconomic variation in amputation risk. Specifically, residents of rural areas, African-American and Native American patients, and those of low socioeconomic status carry the highest risk of amputation. The burden of amputation is severe, with 5-year mortality rates exceeding those of many malignancies. Furthermore, caring for patients with PAD and diabetes mellitus imposes a significant cost to the healthcare system-estimated to range from $84 billion to $380 billion annually. Efforts to improve the quality of care for those with PAD and diabetes mellitus must focus on the subgroups at high risk for amputation and the disparities they face in the receipt of both preventive and interventional cardiovascular care. Better understanding of these social, economic, and structural barriers will prove to be crucial for cardiovascular physicians striving to better care for patients facing this challenging combination of chronic diseases.