Forecasting the Economic Burden of Cardiovascular Disease and Stroke in the United States Through 2050: A Presidential Advisory From the American Heart Association.

BACKGROUND: Quantifying the economic burden of cardiovascular disease and stroke over the coming decades may inform policy, health system, and community-level interventions for prevention and treatment. METHODS: We used nationally representative health, economic, and demographic data to project health care costs attributable to key cardiovascular risk factors (hypertension, diabetes, hypercholesterolemia) and conditions (coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, atrial fibrillation) through 2050. The human capital approach was used to estimate productivity losses from morbidity and premature mortality due to cardiovascular conditions. RESULTS: One in 3 US adults received care for a cardiovascular risk factor or condition in 2020. Annual inflation-adjusted (2022 US dollars) health care costs of cardiovascular risk factors are projected to triple between 2020 and 2050, from $400 billion to $1344 billion. For cardiovascular conditions, annual health care costs are projected to almost quadruple, from $393 billion to $1490 billion, and productivity losses are projected to increase by 54%, from $234 billion to $361 billion. Stroke is projected to account for the largest absolute increase in costs. Large relative increases among the Asian American population (497%) and Hispanic American population (489%) reflect the projected increases in the size of these populations. CONCLUSIONS: The economic burden of cardiovascular risk factors and overt cardiovascular disease in the United States is projected to increase substantially in the coming decades. Development and deployment of cost-effective programs and policies to promote cardiovascular health are urgently needed to rein in costs and to equitably enhance population health.

Development and validation of the Michigan Chronic Disease Simulation Model (MICROSIM).

Strategies to prevent or delay Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (AD/ADRD) are urgently needed, and blood pressure (BP) management is a promising strategy. Yet the effects of different BP control strategies across the life course on AD/ADRD are unknown. Randomized trials may be infeasible due to prolonged follow-up and large sample sizes. Simulation analysis is a practical approach to estimating these effects using the best available existing data. However, existing simulation frameworks cannot estimate the effects of BP control on both dementia and cardiovascular disease. This manuscript describes the design principles, implementation details, and population-level validation of a novel population-health microsimulation framework, the MIchigan ChROnic Disease SIMulation (MICROSIM), for The Effect of Lower Blood Pressure over the Life Course on Late-life Cognition in Blacks, Hispanics, and Whites (BP-COG) study of the effect of BP levels over the life course on dementia and cardiovascular disease. MICROSIM is an agent-based Monte Carlo simulation designed using computer programming best practices. MICROSIM estimates annual vascular risk factor levels and transition probabilities in all-cause dementia, stroke, myocardial infarction, and mortality in a nationally representative sample of US adults 18+ using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). MICROSIM models changes in risk factors over time, cognition and dementia using changes from a pooled dataset of individual participant data from 6 US prospective cardiovascular cohort studies. Cardiovascular risks were estimated using a widely used risk model and BP treatment effects were derived from meta-analyses of randomized trials. MICROSIM is an extensible, open-source framework designed to estimate the population-level impact of different BP management strategies and reproduces US population-level estimates of BP and other vascular risk factors levels, their change over time, and incident all-cause dementia, stroke, myocardial infarction, and mortality.

Racial-Ethnic disparities in stroke prevalence among patients with heart failure.

Racial-ethnic disparities exist in the prevalence and outcomes of heart failure (HF) and are presumed to be related to differences in cardiovascular risk factor burden and control. There is little data on stroke disparities among patients with HF or the factors responsible. We hypothesized disparities in stroke prevalence exist among patients with HF in a manner not fully explained by burden of cardiovascular disease. We analyzed data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1999-2014). Cardiovascular profiles were compared by race/ethnicity. Using survey-weighted models, effect modification of the relationship between HF and stroke by race/ethnicity was examined adjusting for cardiovascular profiles. Of 40,437 participants, 2.5 % had HF. The HF cohort had a greater proportion of White and Black participants (77 % vs 74 % and 15 % vs 12 %, respectively) and fewer participants of Hispanic ethnicity (8 % vs 14 %). Stroke was 8 times more prevalent in HF (19.6 % vs 2.3 %, <0.001). Among individuals with HF, race-ethnic differences were identified in the prevalence and mean values of vascular risk factors but were largely driven by higher rates in Black participants. There was significant interaction between HF and race/ethnicity; HF increased the odds of stroke over 7-fold in participants of Hispanic ethnicity (aOR: 7.84; 95 % CI: 4.11-15.0) but to a lesser extent in Black and White participants (Black aOR: 2.49; 95 % CI: 1.72-3.60; White aOR: 3.36; 95 % CI: 2.57-4.40). People of Hispanic ethnicity with HF have a disproportionately higher risk of stroke in a manner not fully explained by differences in vascular risk profiles.

Drug development for major chronic health conditions-aligning with growing public health needs: Proceedings from a multistakeholder think tank.

The global pharmaceutical industry portfolio is skewed towards cancer and rare diseases due to more predictable development pathways and financial incentives. In contrast, drug development for major chronic health conditions that are responsible for a large part of mortality and disability worldwide is stalled. To examine the processes of novel drug development for common chronic health conditions, a multistakeholder Think Tank meeting, including thought leaders from academia, clinical practice, non-profit healthcare organizations, the pharmaceutical industry, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), payors as well as investors, was convened in July 2022. Herein, we summarize the proceedings of this meeting, including an overview of the current state of drug development for chronic health conditions and key barriers that were identified. Six major action items were formulated to accelerate drug development for chronic diseases, with a focus on improving the efficiency of clinical trials and rapid implementation of evidence into clinical practice.

Novel Prediction Equations for Absolute Risk Assessment of Total Cardiovascular Disease Incorporating Cardiovascular-Kidney-Metabolic Health: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association.

Cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic (CKM) syndrome is a novel construct recently defined by the American Heart Association in response to the high prevalence of metabolic and kidney disease. Epidemiological data demonstrate higher absolute risk of both atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) and heart failure as an individual progresses from CKM stage 0 to stage 3, but optimal strategies for risk assessment need to be refined. Absolute risk assessment with the goal to match type and intensity of interventions with predicted risk and expected treatment benefit remains the cornerstone of primary prevention. Given the growing number of therapies in our armamentarium that simultaneously address all 3 CKM axes, novel risk prediction equations are needed that incorporate predictors and outcomes relevant to the CKM context. This should also include social determinants of health, which are key upstream drivers of CVD, to more equitably estimate and address risk. This scientific statement summarizes the background, rationale, and clinical implications for the newly developed sex-specific, race-free risk equations: PREVENT (AHA Predicting Risk of CVD Events). The PREVENT equations enable 10- and 30-year risk estimates for total CVD (composite of atherosclerotic CVD and heart failure), include estimated glomerular filtration rate as a predictor, and adjust for competing risk of non-CVD death among adults 30 to 79 years of age. Additional models accommodate enhanced predictive utility with the addition of CKM factors when clinically indicated for measurement (urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio and hemoglobin A1c) or social determinants of health (social deprivation index) when available. Approaches to implement risk-based prevention using PREVENT across various settings are discussed.

Food Is Medicine: A Presidential Advisory From the American Heart Association.

Unhealthy diets are a major impediment to achieving a healthier population in the United States. Although there is a relatively clear sense of what constitutes a healthy diet, most of the US population does not eat healthy food at rates consistent with the recommended clinical guidelines. An abundance of barriers, including food and nutrition insecurity, how food is marketed and advertised, access to and affordability of healthy foods, and behavioral challenges such as a focus on immediate versus delayed gratification, stand in the way of healthier dietary patterns for many Americans. Food Is Medicine may be defined as the provision of healthy food resources to prevent, manage, or treat specific clinical conditions in coordination with the health care sector. Although the field has promise, relatively few studies have been conducted with designs that provide strong evidence of associations between Food Is Medicine interventions and health outcomes or health costs. Much work needs to be done to create a stronger body of evidence that convincingly demonstrates the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of different types of Food Is Medicine interventions. An estimated 90% of the $4.3 trillion annual cost of health care in the United States is spent on medical care for chronic disease. For many of these diseases, diet is a major risk factor, so even modest improvements in diet could have a significant impact. This presidential advisory offers an overview of the state of the field of Food Is Medicine and a road map for a new research initiative that strategically approaches the outstanding questions in the field while prioritizing a human-centered design approach to achieve high rates of patient engagement and sustained behavior change. This will ideally happen in the context of broader efforts to use a health equity-centered approach to enhance the ways in which our food system and related policies support improvements in health.

Cost-effectiveness of an insertable cardiac monitor in a high-risk population in the US.

BACKGROUND: Insertable cardiac monitors (ICMs) are a clinically effective means of detecting atrial fibrillation (AF) in high-risk patients, and guiding the initiation of non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (NOACs). Their cost-effectiveness from a US clinical payer perspective is not yet known. The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of ICMs compared to standard of care (SoC) for detecting AF in patients at high risk of stroke (CHADS2 ≥ 2), in the US. METHODS: Using patient data from the REVEAL AF trial (n = 393, average CHADS2 score = 2.9), a Markov model estimated the lifetime costs and benefits of detecting AF with an ICM or with SoC (specifically intermittent use of electrocardiograms and 24-h Holter monitors). Ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes, intra- and extra-cranial hemorrhages, and minor bleeds were modelled. Diagnostic and device costs, costs of treating stroke and bleeding events and medical therapy-specifically costs of NOACs were included. Costs and health outcomes, measured as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), were discounted at 3% per annum, in line with standard practice in the US setting. One-way deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) were undertaken. RESULTS: Lifetime per-patient cost for ICM was $31,116 versus $25,330 for SoC. ICMs generated a total of 7.75 QALYs versus 7.59 for SoC, with 34 fewer strokes projected per 1000 patients. The model estimates a number needed to treat of 29 per stroke avoided. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $35,528 per QALY gained. ICMs were cost-effective in 75% of PSA simulations, using a $50,000 per QALY threshold, and a 100% probability of being cost-effective at a WTP threshold of $150,000 per QALY. CONCLUSIONS: The use of ICMs to identify AF in a high-risk population is likely to be cost-effective in the US healthcare setting.

TASC (Telehealth After Stroke Care): a study protocol for a randomized controlled feasibility trial of telehealth-enabled multidisciplinary stroke care in an underserved urban setting.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension is the most important modifiable risk factor for recurrent stroke, and blood pressure (BP) reduction is associated with decreased risk of stroke recurrence. However, hypertension remains poorly controlled in many stroke survivors. Black and Hispanic patients have a higher prevalence of uncontrolled BP and higher rates of stroke. Limited access to care contributes to challenges in post-stroke care. Telehealth After Stroke Care (TASC) is a telehealth intervention that integrates remote BP monitoring (RBPM) including nursing telephone support, tailored BP infographics and telehealth video visits with a multidisciplinary team approach including pharmacy to improve post-stroke care and reduce stroke disparities. METHODS: In this pilot trial, 50 acute stroke patients with hypertension will be screened for inclusion prior to hospital discharge and randomized to usual care or TASC. Usual care patients will be seen by a primary care nurse practitioner at 1-2 weeks and a stroke neurologist at 1 and 3 months. In addition to these usual care visits, TASC intervention patients will see a pharmacist at 4 and 8 weeks and will be enrolled in RBPM consisting of home BP monitoring with interval calls by a centralized team of telehealth nurses. As part of RBPM, TASC patients will be provided with a home BP monitoring device and electronic tablet that wirelessly transmits home BP data to the electronic health record. They will also receive tailored BP infographics that help explain their BP readings. The primary outcome will be feasibility including recruitment, adherence to at least one video visit and retention rates. The clinical outcome for consideration in a subsequent trial will be within-patient change in BP from baseline to 3 months after discharge. Secondary outcomes will be medication adherence self-efficacy and satisfaction with post-stroke telehealth, both measured at 3 months. Additional patient reported outcomes will include depression, cognitive function, and socioeconomic determinants. Multidisciplinary team competency and fidelity measures will also be assessed. CONCLUSIONS: Integrated team-based interventions may improve BP control and reduce racial/ethnic disparities in post-stroke care. TASC is a post-acute stroke care model that is novel in providing RBPM with tailored infographics, and a multidisciplinary team approach including pharmacy. Our pilot will determine if such an approach is feasible and effective in enhancing post-stroke BP control and promoting self-efficacy. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04640519.

Women with Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes Have Higher Odds of Midlife Stroke: The Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study.

Background: A history of adverse pregnancy outcomes (APOs) is associated with increased risk of future cardiovascular disease, including stroke. Few large U.S. population-based surveys included data on APOs. Methods: The Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health study is a nationally representative survey of 45,971 U.S. respondents. Female respondents ≥50 years old who reported pregnancy history at the 2013-2014 baseline interview were included in this cross-sectional analysis (n = 3,175; weighted n = 35,783,619). The primary exposure was a history of ≥1 APO, including preterm delivery, low birth weight, preeclampsia, placental abruption, and stillbirth. The primary outcomes were (1) stroke before age 60 and (2) any stroke. We used weighted logistic regression models to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for the association between APO and stroke, adjusting for age, race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status, parity, and vascular risk factors. Results: Among stroke-free respondents, 15% reported ≥1 APO. Among women who reported a stroke before age 60, 39% reported ≥1 APO (p < 0.001); among women reporting stroke at any age, 25% reported ≥1 APO (p = 0.01). Controlling for covariates, women with APOs had increased odds of stroke before age 60 (adjusted OR 2.66, 95% CI 1.49, 4.75). The association of APOs with stroke at any age was not significant after controlling for covariates (adjusted OR 1.57, 95% CI 0.93, 2.64). Conclusion: In this analysis of U.S. nationally representative survey data, APOs were independently associated with midlife stroke. Women with APOs have higher odds of midlife stroke and warrant targeted prevention strategies.

Safety and Hospital Costs Averted Using a Rapid Outpatient Management Strategy for Transient Ischemic Attack and Minor Strokes: The RAVEN Clinic.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Patients presenting to emergency departments (ED) with transient ischemic attack and minor strokes (TIAMS) are often admitted for evaluation, though experience in other countries have suggested that an expedited outpatient care models may be a safe alternative. We hypothesized that a rapid access clinic for select TIAMS was feasible and would avert hospitalization costs. METHODS: This retrospective analysis included patients presenting to our institution's ED with TIAMS and NIHSS ≤5 in calendar year 2017. We referred low-risk patients with TIAMS to a Rapid Access Vascular Evaluation-Neurology (RAVEN) clinic within 24 hours of ED discharge. We identified admitted patients who met RAVEN criteria at ED presentation. Rates of follow-up to the RAVEN clinic were recorded. Financial data collected included total hospital costs and time spent in the ED, as well hospital length of stay for admitted patients with low-risk TIAMS. RESULTS: In 2017, 149 patients were referred to RAVEN clinic and 50 patients were admitted. Of the RAVEN patients 99 (94%) appeared as scheduled. None had clinical changes between ED discharge and clinical evaluation. One patient required hospitalization at the RAVEN evaluation. When compared to RAVEN patients, admitted patients had significantly higher $7,719 (SD 354) total hospital costs and were hospitalized for 2 days on average. Overall, the RAVEN strategy averted approximately $764,000 in hospitalization costs and 208 hospital bed-days in accounting year 2017. CONCLUSIONS: For select patients presenting with TIAMS without disabling deficits, a rapid outpatient evaluation may be feasible while averting significant total hospital costs and preserving inpatient hospital beds.

Collaborative Cohort of Cohorts for COVID-19 Research (C4R) Study: Study Design.

The Collaborative Cohort of Cohorts for COVID-19 Research (C4R) is a national prospective study of adults at risk for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) comprising 14 established United States (US) prospective cohort studies. For decades, C4R cohorts have collected extensive data on clinical and subclinical diseases and their risk factors, including behavior, cognition, biomarkers, and social determinants of health. C4R will link this pre-COVID phenotyping to information on SARS-CoV-2 infection and acute and post-acute COVID-related illness. C4R is largely population-based, has an age range of 18-108 years, and broadly reflects the racial, ethnic, socioeconomic, and geographic diversity of the US. C4R is ascertaining severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and COVID-19 illness using standardized questionnaires, ascertainment of COVID-related hospitalizations and deaths, and a SARS-CoV-2 serosurvey via dried blood spots. Master protocols leverage existing robust retention rates for telephone and in-person examinations, and high-quality events surveillance. Extensive pre-pandemic data minimize referral, survival, and recall bias. Data are being harmonized with research-quality phenotyping unmatched by clinical and survey-based studies; these will be pooled and shared widely to expedite collaboration and scientific findings. This unique resource will allow evaluation of risk and resilience factors for COVID-19 severity and outcomes, including post-acute sequelae, and assessment of the social and behavioral impact of the pandemic on long-term trajectories of health and aging.

Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics-2021 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association.

BACKGROUND: The American Heart Association, in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, diet, and weight) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, and glucose control) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, heart failure, valvular disease, venous disease, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs). METHODS: The American Heart Association, through its Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update. The 2021 Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and American Heart Association staff members. This year's edition includes data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population, an enhanced focus on social determinants of health, adverse pregnancy outcomes, vascular contributions to brain health, the global burden of cardiovascular disease, and further evidence-based approaches to changing behaviors related to cardiovascular disease. RESULTS: Each of the 27 chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics. CONCLUSIONS: The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policy makers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

Racial and Ethnic Differences in Presentation and Outcomes for Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19: Findings From the American Heart Association's COVID-19 Cardiovascular Disease Registry.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has exposed longstanding racial and ethnic inequities in health risks and outcomes in the United States. We aimed to identify racial and ethnic differences in presentation and outcomes for patients hospitalized with COVID-19. METHODS: The American Heart Association COVID-19 Cardiovascular Disease Registry is a retrospective observational registry capturing consecutive patients hospitalized with COVID-19. We present data on the first 7868 patients by race/ethnicity treated at 88 hospitals across the United States between January 17, 2020, and July 22, 2020. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes included major adverse cardiovascular events (death, myocardial infarction, stroke, heart failure) and COVID-19 cardiorespiratory ordinal severity score (worst to best: death, cardiac arrest, mechanical ventilation with mechanical circulatory support, mechanical ventilation with vasopressors/inotrope support, mechanical ventilation without hemodynamic support, and hospitalization alone. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the relationship between race/ethnicity and each outcome adjusting for differences in sociodemographic, clinical, and presentation features, and accounting for clustering by hospital. RESULTS: Among 7868 patients hospitalized with COVID-19, 33.0% were Hispanic, 25.5% were non-Hispanic Black, 6.3% were Asian, and 35.2% were non-Hispanic White. Hispanic and Black patients were younger than non-Hispanic White and Asian patients and were more likely to be uninsured. Black patients had the highest prevalence of obesity, hypertension, and diabetes. Black patients also had the highest rates of mechanical ventilation (23.2%) and renal replacement therapy (6.6%) but the lowest rates of remdesivir use (6.1%). Overall mortality was 18.4% with 53% of all deaths occurring in Black and Hispanic patients. The adjusted odds ratios for mortality were 0.93 (95% CI, 0.76-1.14) for Black patients, 0.90 (95% CI, 0.73-1.11) for Hispanic patients, and 1.31 (95% CI, 0.96-1.80) for Asian patients compared with non-Hispanic White patients. The median odds ratio across hospitals was 1.99 (95% CI, 1.74-2.48). Results were similar for major adverse cardiovascular events. Asian patients had the highest COVID-19 cardiorespiratory severity at presentation (adjusted odds ratio, 1.48 [95% CI, 1.16-1.90]). CONCLUSIONS: Although in-hospital mortality and major adverse cardiovascular events did not differ by race/ethnicity after adjustment, Black and Hispanic patients bore a greater burden of mortality and morbidity because of their disproportionate representation among COVID-19 hospitalizations.