Impacts of the Egyptian national screening and treatment programme for viral hepatitis C: A cost-effectiveness model.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Egypt used to have one of the highest prevalences of HCV infection worldwide. The Egyptian Ministry of Health launched a national campaign for the detection and management of HCV to reduce its burden. This study aims to carry out a cost-effectiveness analysis to evaluate the costs and benefits of the Egyptian national screening and treatment programme. METHODS: A disease burden and economic impact model was populated with the Egyptian national screening and treatment programme data to assess direct medical costs, health effects measured in disability-adjusted life years and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. The scenario was compared to a historical base case, which assumed that no programme had been conducted. RESULTS: Total number of viremic cases is expected to decrease in 2030 by 86% under the national screening and treatment programme, versus by 41% under the historical base case. Annual discounted direct medical costs are expected to decrease from $178 million in 2018 to $81 million by 2030 under the historical base case, while annual direct medical costs are estimated to have peaked in 2019 at $312 million before declining to $55 million by 2030 under the national screening and treatment programme. Under the programme, annual disability-adjusted life years are expected to decline to 127 647 by 2030, leading to 883 333 cumulative disability-adjusted life years averted over 2018-2030. CONCLUSIONS: The national screening and treatment programme is highly cost-effective by the year 2021, cost-saving by 2029 and expected to save about $35 million in direct costs and $4705 million in indirect costs by 2030.

Assessment of facility performance during mass treatment of chronic hepatitis C in Egypt: Enablers and obstacles.

BACKGROUND: The national committee for control of viral hepatitis (NCCVH) in Egypt, settled by the Ministry of health, treated over one million patients in around 60 centers with chronological changes in drug combinations. This research aims to study the health care facilities and services provided by NCCVH treatment centers in Egypt and explore hinders faced. METHODS: A cross-sectional operational research study. Multistage random sampling technique was applied for Egyptian governorates. From each stratum one governorate was chosen from which one center was randomly selected. Quality of recorded data for each center in the central server (Data-oriented parameter), newly designed score to assess the overall performance of the centers was retrieved from computer based recording system. A self-administered questionnaire was completed by the centers head. RESULTS: This study included 24 treatment centers from urban, rural areas, Upper and Lower Egypt. The Upper centers showed the best completeness of follow-up records and the least compliance rates. None of the centers had 100% completeness of follow-up data. Proportion of SVR is minimally less than proportion of patient with known outcome in all treatment centers. A novel indicator standardizing the comparisons of performance of different facilities was introduced: Total number of physicians/total number of SVR patients with completed records. The highest response rate: Monfiya Governorate (Lower Egypt), Aswan (Upper Egypt), Completeness of follow-up records: Kalyoubia (Lower Egypt), Sohag governorate (Upper Egypt). The average administrative score was 64%. CONCLUSION: Challenges of NCCVH program: overcrowdings, resistant sociocultural background among rural patients, limited accessibility for internal migrants and incompleteness of data entry are system lacking points. Strengths include, clear patient pathway, well-established database online application, well-trained physicians and treatment availability.

Validation of Hepa-index as a non-invasive biomarkers panel for assessment of hepatic fibrosis in Egyptians with chronic hepatitis C.

OBJECTIVES: To validate the diagnostic performance of Hepa-Index in predicting different stages of hepatic fibrosis in Egyptian patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC). Methods: Hundred treatment naïve chronic hepatitis C Egyptian patients were prospectively enrolled between June 2014 and January 2015. They were subjected to: platelet count, alpha-2-macroglobulin (α2-MG), total bilirubin, gamma glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT), total cholesterol, liver biopsy and histopathological staging of hepatic fibrosis according to METAVIR scoring system. Hepa-Index was calculated according to the formula: Hepa-Index=exp (-0.021 x platelet +1.65 x α2-MG+0.2 x total bilirubin + 0.026 x GGT -1.215 x total cholesterol) / (1+exp (-0.021 x platelet + 1.65 x α2-MG + 0.2 x total bilirubin +0.026 x GGT -1.215 x total cholesterol).  Results: Hepa-Index correlates positively with the stage of hepatic fibrosis. Cut off values of Hepa-Index were: 0.2 for predicting significant hepatic fibrosis (≥F2 METAVIR), 0.3 for severe hepatic fibrosis (≥F3 METAVIR) and 0.4 for cirrhosis (F4 METAVIR). Hepa-Index was able to detect significant fibrosis with sensitivity of 69.4%, specificity of 76.3% and AUROC of 0.803. Hepa-Index was also able to detect severe hepatic fibrosis with sensitivity of 79.2%, specificity of 64.5% and AUROC of 0.783 and cirrhosis with sensitivity of 81.8%, specificity of 68.5% and AUROC of 0.744. Conclusion: Hepa-Index is a good non-invasive biomarkers panel that can be used for non-invasive assessment of hepatic fibrosis in chronic hepatitis C patients.

Accurate Prediction of Advanced Liver Fibrosis Using the Decision Tree Learning Algorithm in Chronic Hepatitis C Egyptian Patients.

Background/Aim. Respectively with the prevalence of chronic hepatitis C in the world, using noninvasive methods as an alternative method in staging chronic liver diseases for avoiding the drawbacks of biopsy is significantly increasing. The aim of this study is to combine the serum biomarkers and clinical information to develop a classification model that can predict advanced liver fibrosis. Methods. 39,567 patients with chronic hepatitis C were included and randomly divided into two separate sets. Liver fibrosis was assessed via METAVIR score; patients were categorized as mild to moderate (F0-F2) or advanced (F3-F4) fibrosis stages. Two models were developed using alternating decision tree algorithm. Model 1 uses six parameters, while model 2 uses four, which are similar to FIB-4 features except alpha-fetoprotein instead of alanine aminotransferase. Sensitivity and receiver operating characteristic curve were performed to evaluate the performance of the proposed models. Results. The best model achieved 86.2% negative predictive value and 0.78 ROC with 84.8% accuracy which is better than FIB-4. Conclusions. The risk of advanced liver fibrosis, due to chronic hepatitis C, could be predicted with high accuracy using decision tree learning algorithm that could be used to reduce the need to assess the liver biopsy.

How to optimize hepatitis C virus treatment impact on life years saved in resource-constrained countries.

UNLABELLED: In resource-constrained countries where the prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) disease is usually high, it is important to know which population should be treated first in order to increase treatment effectiveness. The aim was to estimate the effectiveness of different HCV treatment eligibility scenarios in three different countries. Using a Markov model, we estimated the number of life-years saved (LYS) with different treatment eligibility scenarios according to fibrosis stage (F1-F4 or F3-4), compared to base case (F2-F4), at a constant treatment rate, of patients between 18 and 60 years of age, at stages F0/F1 to F4, without liver complications or coinfections, chronically infected by HCV, and treated with pegylated interferon (IFN)/ribavirin or more-efficacious therapies (i.e. IFN free). We conducted the analysis in Egypt (prevalence = 14.7%; 45,000 patients treated/year), Thailand (prevalence = 2.2%; 1,000 patients treated/year), and Côte d'Ivoire (prevalence = 3%; 150 patients treated/year). In Egypt, treating F1 patients in addition to ≥F2 patients (SE1 vs. SE0) decreased LYS by 3.9%. Focusing treatment only on F3-F4 patients increased LYS by 6.7% (SE2 vs. SE0). In Thailand and Côte d'Ivoire, focusing treatment only on F3-F4 patients increased LYS by 15.3% and 11.0%, respectively, compared to treating patients ≥F2 (ST0 and SC0, respectively). Treatment only for patients at stages F3-F4 with IFN-free therapies would increase LYS by 16.7% versus SE0 in Egypt, 22.0% versus ST0 in Thailand, and 13.1% versus SC0 in Côte d'Ivoire. In this study, we did not take into account the yearly new infections and the impact of treatment on HCV transmission. CONCLUSION: Our model-based analysis demonstrates that prioritizing treatment in F3-F4 patients in resource-constrained countries is the most effective scenario in terms of LYS, regardless of treatment considered.

Egy-score as a noninvasive score for the assessment of hepatic fibrosis in chronic hepatitis C: a preliminary approach.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Egy-Score is a new noninvasive score for prediction of severe hepatic fibrosis in patients with chronic liver diseases. The aim of this study was to validate Egy-Score as a noninvasive score for predicting stage of hepatic fibrosis in a group of Egyptian chronic hepatitis C patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS: One hundred Egyptian patients with chronic hepatitis C were enrolled. Mean age was 40.25 ± 9.39 years. They were subjected to CA19-9, alpha-2-macroglobulin, total bilirubin, platelet count and albumin, liver biopsy, and histopathological staging of hepatic fibrosis according to METAVIR scoring system as part of their assessment for treatment. Egy-Score was calculated according to the following formula: Egy-Score = 3.52 + 0.0063 × CA19-9 + 0.0203 × age + 0.4485 × alpha-2-macroglobulin + 0.0303 × bilirubin - 0.0048 × platelet - 0.0462 × albumin. Egy-Score results were correlated to the stage of hepatic fibrosis. RESULTS: Egy-Score correlates positively with the stage of hepatic fibrosis (F0-F4). Egy-Score was able to differentiate significant hepatic fibrosis, severe hepatic fibrosis, and cirrhosis accurately. Cutoff values of Egy-Score were 2.91850 (for significant fibrosis), 3.28624 (for severe fibrosis), and 3.67570 (for cirrhosis). Sensitivity, specificity, and areas-under-ROC curve (AUROCs) were 75.8%, 68.42%, and 0.776 (for significant fibrosis "≥F2"), 91.67%, 77.63%, and 0.875 (for severe fibrosis "≥F3"), and 81.82%, 86.52%, and 0.874 (for cirrhosis "F4"), respectively. CONCLUSION: Egy-Score is a useful noninvasive panel of surrogate biomarkers that could accurately predict different stages of hepatic fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis C.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of immediate versus delayed treatment of hepatitis C virus-infected patients in a country with limited resources: the case of Egypt.

BACKGROUND: Because of logistical and economic issues, in Egypt, as in other resource-limited settings, decision makers should determine for which patients hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment should be prioritized. We assessed the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of different treatment initiation strategies. METHODS: Using a Markov model, we simulated HCV disease in chronically infected patients in Egypt, to compare lifetime costs, quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE), and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of different treatment initiation strategies. RESULTS: Immediate treatment of patients at stages F1/F2/F3 was less expensive and more effective than delaying treatment until more severe stages or not providing treatment (in patients diagnosed at F1: QALE = 18.32 years if treatment at F1 vs 18.22 if treatment at F2). Treatment of F4 patients was more effective than no treatment at all (QALE = 10.33 years vs 8.77 years) and was cost-effective (ICER = $1915/quality-adjusted life-year [QALY]). When considering that affordable triple therapies, including new direct-acting antivirals, will be available starting in 2016, delaying treatment until stage F2, then treating all patients regardless of their disease stage after 2016, was found to be cost-effective (ICER = $33/QALY). CONCLUSIONS: In Egypt, immediate treatment of patients with fibrosis stage F1-F3 who present to care is less expensive and more effective than delaying treatment. However, immediate treatment at stage F1 is only slightly more effective than waiting for disease to progress to stage F2 before starting treatment and is sensitive to the forthcoming availability of new treatments. Treating patients at stage F4 is highly effective and cost-effective. In Egypt, decision makers should prioritize treatment for F4 patients and delay treatment for F1 patients who present to care.

Treatment of chronic hepatitis B virus infection in resource-constrained settings: expert panel consensus.

Most of the estimated 350 million people with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection live in resource-constrained settings. Up to 25% of those persons will die prematurely of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) or cirrhosis. Universal hepatitis B immunization programmes that target infants will have an impact on HBV-related deaths several decades after their introduction. Antiviral agents active against HBV are available; treatment of HBV infection in those who need it has been shown to reduce the risk of HCC and death. It is estimated that 20-30% of persons with HBV infection could benefit from treatment. However, drugs active against HBV are not widely available or utilized in persons infected with HBV. Currently recommended antiviral agents used for treatment of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection do not adequately suppress HBV, which is of great concern for the estimated 10% of the HIV-infected persons in Africa who are co-infected with HBV. Progressive liver disease has been shown to occur in co-infected persons whose HBV infection is not suppressed. In view of these concerns, an informal World Health Organization consultation of experts concluded that: chronic HBV is a major public health problem in emerging nations; all HIV-infected persons should be screened for HBV infection; HIV/HBV co-infected persons should be treated with therapies active against both viruses and that reduce the risk of resistance; standards for the management of chronic HBV infection should be adapted to resource-constrained settings. In addition, a research agendum was developed focusing on issues related to prevention and treatment of chronic HBV in resource-constrained settings.

Assessment of hepatic fibrosis in pediatric cases with hepatitis C virus in Egypt.

AIM: To assess hepatic fibrosis and factors associated with its progression in children with HCV infection. METHODS: At the Hepatology Unit, Cairo University Children's Hospital, a single liver biopsy was performed to 43 children with HCV infection after an informed consent between 1998-2004. Their mean age at liver biopsy was 8.67 +/- 4.3 years. RESULTS: Among the 43 patients' biopsies, 12 (27.9%) were having no fibrosis, 20 (46.5%) mild fibrosis and 11 (25.6%) moderate to severe fibrosis. The median time for development of fibrosis was estimated to be 5.5 years. Developing fibrosis was significantly associated with shorter duration from first detected ALT elevation to biopsy (12 mo vs 1.2 mo, P=0.015) and having higher levels of direct serum bilirubin (0.3 mg/dL vs 0.5 mg/dL, P=0.048). No association was found between fibrosis stage and the presence of co-morbid conditions (P=0.33). CONCLUSION: Hepatic fibrosis was present in 72.1% of children with HCV infection. The development of fibrosis was associated with higher levels of direct serum bilirubin. There was no significant association between fibrosis and age, duration of infection, risk factors, co-morbid conditions and most biochemical parameters.