Climatic, land-use and socio-economic factors can predict malaria dynamics at fine spatial scales relevant to local health actors: Evidence from rural Madagascar.

While much progress has been achieved over the last decades, malaria surveillance and control remain a challenge in countries with limited health care access and resources. High-resolution predictions of malaria incidence using routine surveillance data could represent a powerful tool to health practitioners by targeting malaria control activities where and when they are most needed. Here, we investigate the predictors of spatio-temporal malaria dynamics in rural Madagascar, estimated from facility-based passive surveillance data. Specifically, this study integrates climate, land-use, and representative household survey data to explain and predict malaria dynamics at a high spatial resolution (i.e., by Fokontany, a cluster of villages) relevant to health care practitioners. Combining generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) and path analyses, we found that socio-economic, land use and climatic variables are all important predictors of monthly malaria incidence at fine spatial scales, via both direct and indirect effects. In addition, out-of-sample predictions from our model were able to identify 58% of the Fokontany in the top quintile for malaria incidence and account for 77% of the variation in the Fokontany incidence rank. These results suggest that it is possible to build a predictive framework using environmental and social predictors that can be complementary to standard surveillance systems and help inform control strategies by field actors at local scales.

Decision-making experiences of young adults with long-term conditions.

BACKGROUND: Young adults with long-term conditions can struggle to accept their diagnosis and can become overwhelmed with managing their condition. Suboptimal transfer from paediatric to adult services with a resultant disengagement with the service can result in less involvement in care and decision-making. Shared decision-making can improve involvement in health decisions and increase satisfaction with treatment/therapy and care. OBJECTIVES: An integrative literature review was conducted to explore and understand young adults' experiences of decision-making in health care. DESIGN: An integrative literature review. DATA SOURCES: CINAHL, EMCARE, PsycINFO, HMIC, EMBASE, Web of Science, PubMed, MEDLINE, EBSCOHOST and COCHRANE databases were searched for relevant literature published between January 1999 and January 2020. FINDINGS: Thirteen primary research papers met the inclusion criteria. Four main themes were identified: (1) Information delivery and communication; (2) participation in decision-making; (3) social factors influencing decision-making and (4) emotional impact of decision-making. CONCLUSIONS: Young adults with long-term conditions have specific decision-making needs which can impact their emotional health. Research with a specific focus on young adults' experiences of decision-making in health care is needed.

Evaluating automated titre score as an alternative to continuous flow analysis for the prediction of passive anti-D in pregnancy.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the potential of the automated titre score (TS) as an alternative method to continuous flow analysis (CFA) for the prediction of the nature of anti-D in pregnancy. BACKGROUND: The 2016 revised British Society for Haematology (BSH) antenatal guidelines recommended a measurement of anti-D concentration by CFA to ensure the detection of potential immune anti-D. Due to high referral costs and resource pressures, uptake has been challenging for hospital laboratories. Serious Hazards of transfusion (SHOT) data have previously shown that this has contributed to missed antenatal follow ups for women with immune anti-D and neonates affected by haemolytic disease of the fetus/newborn. METHODS/MATERIALS: In this multicentre comparative study, samples referred for CFA quantification were also tested by an ORTHO VISION automated anti-D indirect antiglobulin test (IAT) serial dilution and then converted to TS. CFA results and history of anti-D prophylaxis were used to categorise samples as passive or immune, with the aim of determining a potential TS cut-off for CFA referral of at risk patients. RESULTS: Five UK National Health Service (NHS) trusts generated a total of 196 anti-D TS results, of which 128 were classified as passive and 68 as immune. Diagnostic testing of CFA and TS values indicated a TS cut-off of 35 to assist in distinguishing the nature of anti-D. Using this cut-off, 175 (89%) results were correctly assigned into the passive or immune range, giving a specificity of 92.19% and a negative predictive value of 91.47%. CONCLUSION: TS in conjunction with clinical and anti-D prophylaxis history can be used as a viable and cost-effective alternative to CFA in a hospital laboratory setting.

Cost-Effectiveness and Clinical Effectiveness of the Risk Factor Management Clinic in Atrial Fibrillation: The CENT Study.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) imposes a substantial cost burden on the healthcare system. Weight and risk factor management (RFM) reduces AF burden and improves the outcomes of AF ablation. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to evaluate the cost and clinical effectiveness of integrating RFM into the overall management of AF. METHODS: Of 1,415 consecutive patients with symptomatic AF, 825 patients had body mass index ≥27 kg/m2. After screening for exclusion criteria, the final cohort comprised 355 patients: 208 patients who opted for RFM and 147 control subjects and were followed by 3 to 6 monthly clinic review, 7-day Holter monitoring, and AF Symptom Score. A decision analytical model calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of cost per unit of global well-being gained and unit of AF burden reduced. RESULTS: There were no differences in baseline characteristics or follow-up duration (p = NS). Arrhythmia-free survival was better in the RFM compared with control subjects (Kaplan-Meier: 79% vs. 44%; p < 0.001). At follow-up, RFM group had less unplanned specialist visits (0.19 ± 0.40 vs. 1.94 ± 2.00; p < 0.001), hospitalizations (0.74 ± 1.3 vs. 1.05 ± 1.60; p = 0.03), cardioversions (0.89 ± 1.50 vs. 1.51 ± 2.30; p = 0.002), emergency presentations (0.18 ± 0.50 vs. 0.76 ± 1.20; p < 0.001), and ablation procedures (0.60 ± 0.69 vs. 0.72 ± 0.86; p = 0.03). Antihypertensive (0.53 ± 0.70 vs. 0.78 ± 0.60; p = 0.04) and antiarrhythmic (0.26 ± 0.50 vs. 0.91 ± 0.60; p = 0.003) use declined in RFM. The RFM group had an increase of 0.1930 quality-adjusted life years and a cost saving of $12,094 (incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of $62,653 saved per quality-adjusted life years gained). CONCLUSIONS: A structured physician-directed RFM program is clinically effective and cost saving.

Association between Race, Household Income and Grip Strength in Middle- and Older-Aged Adults.

BACKGROUND: Poor grip strength is an indicator of frailty and a precursor to functional limitations. Although poor grip strength is more prevalent in older disabled African American women, little is known about the association between race and poverty-related disparities and grip strength in middle-aged men and women. METHODS: We examined the cross-sectional relationship between race, socioeconomic status as assessed by household income, and hand grip strength in men and women in the Healthy Aging in Neighborhoods of Diversity across the Life Span study. General linear models examined grip strength (maximum of two trials on both sides) by race and household income adjusted for age, weight, height, hand pain, education, insurance status, family income, and two or more chronic conditions. RESULTS: Of 2,091 adults, 422(45.4%) were male, 509(54.8%) were African American, and 320 (34.5%) were living in households with incomes below 125% of the federal poverty level (low SES). In adjusted models, African American women had greater grip strength than White women independent of SES (low income household: 29.3 vs 26.9 kg and high income household: 30.5 vs. 28.3kg; P<.05 for both); whereas in men, only African Americans in the high income household group had better grip strength than Whites (46.3 vs. 43.2; P<.05). CONCLUSIONS: The relationship between grip strength, race and SES as assessed by household income varied in this cohort. Efforts to develop grip strength norms and cut points that indicate frailty and sarcopenia may need to be race- and income-specific.