Malaria parasite clearance rate regression: an R software package for a Bayesian hierarchical regression model.

BACKGROUND: Emerging resistance to anti-malarial drugs has led malaria researchers to investigate what covariates (parasite and host factors) are associated with resistance. In this regard, investigation of how covariates impact malaria parasites clearance is often performed using a two-stage approach in which the WWARN Parasite Clearance Estimator or PCE is used to estimate parasite clearance rates and then the estimated parasite clearance is regressed on the covariates. However, the recently developed Bayesian Clearance Estimator instead leads to more accurate results for hierarchial regression modelling which motivated the authors to implement the method as an R package, called "bhrcr". METHODS: Given malaria parasite clearance profiles of a set of patients, the "bhrcr" package performs Bayesian hierarchical regression to estimate malaria parasite clearance rates along with the effect of covariates on them in the presence of "lag" and "tail" phases. In particular, the model performs a linear regression of the log clearance rates on covariates to estimate the effects within a Bayesian hierarchical framework. All posterior inferences are obtained by a "Markov Chain Monte Carlo" based sampling scheme which forms the core of the package. RESULTS: The "bhrcr" package can be utilized to study malaria parasite clearance data, and specifically, how covariates affect parasite clearance rates. In addition to estimating the clearance rates and the impact of covariates on them, the "bhrcr" package provides tools to calculate the WWARN PCE estimates of the parasite clearance rates as well. The fitted Bayesian model to the clearance profile of each individual, as well as the WWARN PCE estimates, can also be plotted by this package. CONCLUSIONS: This paper explains the Bayesian Clearance Estimator for malaria researchers including describing the freely available software, thus making these methods accessible and practical for modelling covariates' effects on parasite clearance rates.

Host immunity to Plasmodium falciparum and the assessment of emerging artemisinin resistance in a multinational cohort.

Artemisinin-resistant falciparum malaria, defined by a slow-clearance phenotype and the presence of kelch13 mutants, has emerged in the Greater Mekong Subregion. Naturally acquired immunity to malaria clears parasites independent of antimalarial drugs. We hypothesized that between- and within-population variations in host immunity influence parasite clearance after artemisinin treatment and the interpretation of emerging artemisinin resistance. Antibodies specific to 12 Plasmodium falciparum sporozoite and blood-stage antigens were determined in 959 patients (from 11 sites in Southeast Asia) participating in a multinational cohort study assessing parasite clearance half-life (PCt1/2) after artesunate treatment and kelch13 mutations. Linear mixed-effects modeling of pooled individual patient data assessed the association between antibody responses and PCt1/2.P. falciparum antibodies were lowest in areas where the prevalence of kelch13 mutations and slow PCt1/2 were highest [Spearman ρ = -0.90 (95% confidence interval, -0.97, -0.65), and Spearman ρ = -0.94 (95% confidence interval, -0.98, -0.77), respectively]. P. falciparum antibodies were associated with faster PCt1/2 (mean difference in PCt1/2 according to seropositivity, -0.16 to -0.65 h, depending on antigen); antibodies have a greater effect on the clearance of kelch13 mutant compared with wild-type parasites (mean difference in PCt1/2 according to seropositivity, -0.22 to -0.61 h faster in kelch13 mutants compared with wild-type parasites). Naturally acquired immunity accelerates the clearance of artemisinin-resistant parasites in patients with falciparum malaria and may confound the current working definition of artemisinin resistance. Immunity may also play an important role in the emergence and transmission potential of artemisinin-resistant parasites.

Sahel, savana, riverine and urban malaria in West Africa: Similar control policies with different outcomes.

The study sites for the West African ICEMR are in three countries (The Gambia, Senegal, Mali) and are located within 750 km of each other. In addition, the National Malaria Control Programmes of these countries have virtually identical policies: (1) Artemisinin Combination Therapies (ACTs) for the treatment of symptomatic Plasmodium falciparum infection, (2) Long-Lasting Insecticide-treated bed Nets (LLINs) to reduce the Entomololgic Inoculation Rate (EIR), and (3) sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine for the Intermittent Preventive Treatment of malaria during pregnancy (IPTp). However, the prevalence of P. falciparum malaria and the status of malaria control vary markedly across the four sites with differences in the duration of the transmission season (from 4-5 to 10-11 months), the intensity of transmission (with EIRs from unmeasurably low to 4-5 per person per month), multiplicity of infection (from a mean of 1.0 to means of 2-5) and the status of malaria control (from areas which have virtually no control to areas that are at the threshold of malaria elimination). The most important priority is the need to obtain comparable data on the population-based prevalence, incidence and transmission of malaria before new candidate interventions or combinations of interventions are introduced for malaria control.