Diarrhoeal disease and subsequent risk of death in infants and children residing in low-income and middle-income countries: analysis of the GEMS case-control study and 12-month GEMS-1A follow-on study.

BACKGROUND: The Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) was a 3-year case-control study that measured the burden, aetiology, and consequences of moderate-to-severe diarrhoea (MSD) in children aged 0-59 months. GEMS-1A, a 12-month follow-on study, comprised two parallel case-control studies, one assessing MSD and the other less-severe diarrhoea (LSD). In this report, we analyse the risk of death with each diarrhoea type and the specific pathogens associated with fatal outcomes. METHODS: GEMS was a prospective, age-stratified, matched case-control study done at seven sites in Africa and Asia. Children aged 0-59 months with MSD seeking care at sentinel health centres were recruited along with one to three randomly selected matched community control children without diarrhoea. In the 12-month GEMS-1A follow-on study, children with LSD and matched controls, in addition to children with MSD and matched controls, were recruited at six of the seven sites; only cases of MSD and controls were enrolled at the seventh site. We compared risk of death during the period between enrolment and one follow-up household visit done about 60 days later (range 50-90 days) in children with MSD and LSD and in their respective controls. Approximately 50 pathogens were detected using, as appropriate, classic bacteriology, immunoassays, gel-based PCR and reverse transcriptase PCR, and quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR). Specimens from a subset of GEMS cases and controls were also tested by a TaqMan Array Card that compartmentalised probe-based qPCR for 32 enteropathogens. FINDINGS: 223 (2·0%) of 11 108 children with MSD and 43 (0·3%) of 16 369 matched controls died between study enrolment and the follow-up visit at about 60 days (hazard ratio [HR] 8·16, 95% CI 5·69-11·68, p<0·0001). 12 (0·4%) of 2962 children with LSD and seven (0·2%) of 4074 matched controls died during the follow-up period (HR 2·78, 95% CI 0·95-8·11, p=0·061). Risk of death was lower in children with dysenteric MSD than in children with non-dysenteric MSD (HR 0·20, 95% CI 0·05-0·87, p=0·032), and lower in children with LSD than in those with non-dysenteric MSD (HR 0·29, 0·14-0·59, p=0·0006). In children younger than 24 months with MSD, infection with typical enteropathogenic Escherichia coli, enterotoxigenic E coli encoding heat-stable toxin, enteroaggregative E coli, Shigella spp (non-dysentery cases), Aeromonas spp, Cryptosporidium spp, and Entamoeba histolytica increased risk of death. Of 61 deaths in children aged 12-59 months with non-dysenteric MSD, 31 occurred among 942 children qPCR-positive for Shigella spp and 30 deaths occurred in 1384 qPCR-negative children (HR 2·2, 95% CI 1·2-3·9, p=0·0090), showing that Shigella was strongly associated with increased risk of death. INTERPRETATION: Risk of death is increased following MSD and, to a lesser extent, LSD. Considering there are approximately three times more cases of LSD than MSD in the population, more deaths are expected among children with LSD than in those with MSD. Because the major attributable LSD-associated and MSD-associated pathogens are the same, implementing vaccines and rapid diagnosis and treatment interventions against these major pathogens are rational investments. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Viral Pathogen-Specific Clinical and Demographic Characteristics of Children with Moderate-to-Severe Diarrhea in Rural Bangladesh.

Diarrheal disease is a leading cause of childhood morbidity and mortality worldwide, but particularly in low-income countries in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. The Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) examined the infectious etiologies as well as associated demographics, socioeconomic markers, health-care-seeking behaviors, and handwashing practices of the households of children with diarrhea and their age- and gender-matched controls in seven countries over a 3-year period (December 2007-December 2010). Stool studies to determine diarrheal etiologies and anthropometry were performed at baseline and at 60-day follow-up visits, along with surveys to record demographics and living conditions of the children. We performed secondary analyses of the GEMS data derived from the Bangladesh portion of the study in children with diarrhea associated with viral enteropathogens and explored pathogen-specific features of disease burden. Rotavirus and norovirus were the most prevalent pathogens (39.3% and 35%, respectively). Disease due to rotavirus and adenovirus was more common in infants than in older children (P < 0.001 and P = 0.001, respectively). Height for age decreased from baseline to follow-up in children with diarrhea associated with rotavirus, norovirus, and adenovirus (P < 0.001). Based on these analyses, preventive measures targeted at rotavirus, norovirus, and adenovirus will be expected to have meaningful clinical impact. Cost of treatment was highest for rotavirus as well, making it an obvious target for intervention. Association of specific viruses with stunting is particularly notable, as stunting is an attributable risk factor for poor cognitive development and future productivity and economic potential.

Species of Cryptosporidia Causing Subclinical Infection Associated With Growth Faltering in Rural and Urban Bangladesh: A Birth Cohort Study.

Background: Cryptosporidiosis is a major cause of childhood diarrhea in low- and middle-income countries and has been linked to impairment of child growth. This study investigated the burden of cryptosporidiosis and its impact on child growth in both a rural and an urban site in Bangladesh. Methods: Pregnant women in the second trimester were identified at 2 sites in Bangladesh, 1 urban and 1 rural. Their offspring were enrolled at birth into the study (urban, n = 250; rural, n = 258). For 2 years, the children were actively monitored for diarrhea and anthropometric measurements were obtained every 3 months. Stool samples were collected monthly and during diarrheal episodes with Cryptosporidium infection and causative species determined by quantitative polymerase chain reaction assays. Results: Cryptosporidium infections were common at both sites and mostly subclinical. In the urban site, 161 (64%) children were infected and 65 (26%) had ≥2 infections. In the rural site, 114 (44%) were infected and 24 (9%) had multiple infections. Adjusted for potential confounders, cryptosporidiosis was associated with a significantly greater drop in the length-for-age z score (LAZ) at 24 months from LAZ at enrollment (Δ-LAZ), an effect greatest in the children with multiple episodes of cryptosporidiosis. The most common species in Mirpur was Cryptosporidium hominis, whereas Cryptosporidium meleagridis predominated in Mirzapur. Conclusions: Cryptosporidiosis is common in early childhood and associated with early growth faltering in Bangladeshi children. Predominant Cryptosporidium species differed between the 2 sites, suggesting different exposures or modes of transmission but similar consequences for child growth. Clinical Trials Registration: NCT02764918.

Use of quantitative molecular diagnostic methods to identify causes of diarrhoea in children: a reanalysis of the GEMS case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Diarrhoea is the second leading cause of mortality in children worldwide, but establishing the cause can be complicated by diverse diagnostic approaches and varying test characteristics. We used quantitative molecular diagnostic methods to reassess causes of diarrhoea in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS). METHODS: GEMS was a study of moderate to severe diarrhoea in children younger than 5 years in Africa and Asia. We used quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) to test for 32 enteropathogens in stool samples from cases and matched asymptomatic controls from GEMS, and compared pathogen-specific attributable incidences with those found with the original GEMS microbiological methods, including culture, EIA, and reverse-transcriptase PCR. We calculated revised pathogen-specific burdens of disease and assessed causes in individual children. FINDINGS: We analysed 5304 sample pairs. For most pathogens, incidence was greater with qPCR than with the original methods, particularly for adenovirus 40/41 (around five times), Shigella spp or enteroinvasive Escherichia coli (EIEC) and Campylobactor jejuni o C coli (around two times), and heat-stable enterotoxin-producing E coli ([ST-ETEC] around 1·5 times). The six most attributable pathogens became, in descending order, Shigella spp, rotavirus, adenovirus 40/41, ST-ETEC, Cryptosporidium spp, and Campylobacter spp. Pathogen-attributable diarrhoeal burden was 89·3% (95% CI 83·2-96·0) at the population level, compared with 51·5% (48·0-55·0) in the original GEMS analysis. The top six pathogens accounted for 77·8% (74·6-80·9) of all attributable diarrhoea. With use of model-derived quantitative cutoffs to assess individual diarrhoeal cases, 2254 (42·5%) of 5304 cases had one diarrhoea-associated pathogen detected and 2063 (38·9%) had two or more, with Shigella spp and rotavirus being the pathogens most strongly associated with diarrhoea in children with mixed infections. INTERPRETATION: A quantitative molecular diagnostic approach improved population-level and case-level characterisation of the causes of diarrhoea and indicated a high burden of disease associated with six pathogens, for which targeted treatment should be prioritised. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The Burden of Cryptosporidium Diarrheal Disease among Children < 24 Months of Age in Moderate/High Mortality Regions of Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, Utilizing Data from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS).

BACKGROUND: The importance of Cryptosporidium as a pediatric enteropathogen in developing countries is recognized. METHODS: Data from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS), a 3-year, 7-site, case-control study of moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) and GEMS-1A (1-year study of MSD and less-severe diarrhea [LSD]) were analyzed. Stools from 12,110 MSD and 3,174 LSD cases among children aged <60 months and from 21,527 randomly-selected controls matched by age, sex and community were immunoassay-tested for Cryptosporidium. Species of a subset of Cryptosporidium-positive specimens were identified by PCR; GP60 sequencing identified anthroponotic C. parvum. Combined annual Cryptosporidium-attributable diarrhea incidences among children aged <24 months for African and Asian GEMS sites were extrapolated to sub-Saharan Africa and South Asian regions to estimate region-wide MSD and LSD burdens. Attributable and excess mortality due to Cryptosporidium diarrhea were estimated. FINDINGS: Cryptosporidium was significantly associated with MSD and LSD below age 24 months. Among Cryptosporidium-positive MSD cases, C. hominis was detected in 77.8% (95% CI, 73.0%-81.9%) and C. parvum in 9.9% (95% CI, 7.1%-13.6%); 92% of C. parvum tested were anthroponotic genotypes. Annual Cryptosporidium-attributable MSD incidence was 3.48 (95% CI, 2.27-4.67) and 3.18 (95% CI, 1.85-4.52) per 100 child-years in African and Asian infants, respectively, and 1.41 (95% CI, 0.73-2.08) and 1.36 (95% CI, 0.66-2.05) per 100 child-years in toddlers. Corresponding Cryptosporidium-attributable LSD incidences per 100 child-years were 2.52 (95% CI, 0.33-5.01) and 4.88 (95% CI, 0.82-8.92) in infants and 4.04 (95% CI, 0.56-7.51) and 4.71 (95% CI, 0.24-9.18) in toddlers. We estimate 2.9 and 4.7 million Cryptosporidium-attributable cases annually in children aged <24 months in the sub-Saharan Africa and India/Pakistan/Bangladesh/Nepal/Afghanistan regions, respectively, and ~202,000 Cryptosporidium-attributable deaths (regions combined). ~59,000 excess deaths occurred among Cryptosporidium-attributable diarrhea cases over expected if cases had been Cryptosporidium-negative. CONCLUSIONS: The enormous African/Asian Cryptosporidium disease burden warrants investments to develop vaccines, diagnostics and therapies.

Health care-seeking behavior for childhood diarrhea in Mirzapur, rural Bangladesh.

We evaluated patterns of health care use for diarrhea among children 0-59 months of age residing in Mirzapur, Bangladesh, using a baseline survey conducted during May-June 2007 to inform the design of a planned diarrheal etiology case/control study. Caretakers of 7.4% of 1,128 children reported a diarrheal illness in the preceding 14 days; among 95 children with diarrhea, 24.2% had blood in the stool, 12.2% received oral rehydration solution, 27.6% received homemade fluids, and none received zinc at home. Caretakers of 87.9% sought care outside the home; 49.9% from a pharmacy, and 22.1% from a hospital or health center. The primary reasons for not seeking care were maternal perception that the illness was not serious enough (74.0%) and the high cost of treatment (21.9%). To improve management of childhood diarrhea in Mirzapur, Bangladesh, it will be important to address knowledge gaps in caretakers' assessment of illness severity, appropriate home management, and when to seek care in the formal sector. In addition, consideration should be given to inclusion of the diverse care-giving settings in clinical training activities for diarrheal disease management.

Health care seeking for childhood diarrhea in developing countries: evidence from seven sites in Africa and Asia.

We performed serial Health Care Utilization and Attitudes Surveys (HUASs) among caretakers of children ages 0-59 months randomly selected from demographically defined populations participating in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS), a case-control study of moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) in seven developing countries. The surveys aimed to estimate the proportion of children with MSD who would present to sentinel health centers (SHCs) where GEMS case recruitment would occur and provide a basis for adjusting disease incidence rates to include cases not seen at the SHCs. The proportion of children at each site reported to have had an incident episode of MSD during the 7 days preceding the survey ranged from 0.7% to 4.4% for infants (0-11 months of age), from 0.4% to 4.7% for toddlers (12-23 months of age), and from 0.3% to 2.4% for preschoolers (24-59 months of age). The proportion of MSD episodes at each site taken to an SHC within 7 days of diarrhea onset was 15-56%, 17-64%, and 7-33% in the three age strata, respectively. High cost of care and insufficient knowledge about danger signs were associated with lack of any care-seeking outside the home. Most children were not offered recommended fluids and continuing feeds at home. We have shown the utility of serial HUASs as a tool for optimizing operational and methodological issues related to the performance of a large case-control study and deriving population-based incidence rates of MSD. Moreover, the surveys suggest key targets for educational interventions that might improve the outcome of diarrheal diseases in low-resource settings.

Risk factors for severe cholera among children under five in rural and urban Bangladesh, 2000-2008: a hospital-based surveillance study.

BACKGROUND: Children under five bear the largest cholera burden. We therefore sought to identify modifiable risk factors among Bangladeshi children. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used multivariate Poisson regression to assess risk factors for severe cholera among diarrheal patients presenting at hospitals in Matlab (rural) and Dhaka (urban), Bangladesh. Risk increased with age. Compared to those under one, rural and urban four-year-olds had adjusted risk ratios (aRR) of 4.17 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.43-7.15) and 6.32 (95% CI: 4.63-8.63), respectively. Breastfeeding halved the risk in both rural (aRR = 0.49, 95% CI: 0.35-0.67) and urban (aRR = 0.51, 95% CI: 0.41-0.62) settings. Rural children's risk decreased with maternal education (P-trend: <0.001) and increased among those with a family member with diarrhea in the past week (aRR = 1.61, 95% CI: 1.22-2.14) and those with prior vitamin A supplementation (aRR = 1.65, 95% CI: 1.12-2.43). Urban children whose mothers daily (aRR = 0.41, 95% CI: 0.21-0.79) or occasionally (aRR = 0.55, 95% CI: 0.36-0.84) read a newspaper experienced reduced risk. Urban children from households with incomes between 34-84 USD/month had a 30% increased risk compared to those from households with incomes >84 USD/month. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Increasing age, lower socioeconomic status, and lack of breastfeeding are key correlates of increased risk for cholera hospitalization among those under five in rural and urban Bangladesh. In addition, having a family member with diarrhea in the past week was associated with increased risk among rural children. Continued attention should be directed to the promotion of breastfeeding. Further research is needed to elucidate the relationship between maternal education and cholera risk. Renewed research regarding the use of chemoprophylaxis among family members of cholera cases may be warranted in rural endemic settings.