Exploring the driving forces and scenario analysis for catastrophic and impoverishing health expenditures in Iran.

BACKGROUND: The extent of healthcare expenditure within households stands as a crucial indicator in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). When out-of-pocket healthcare expenses surpass household income or become unduly burdensome, it serves as a significant socio-economic alarm, resulting in a reduced quality of life, a phenomenon referred to as 'catastrophic health expenditure (CHE).' Multiple factors can contribute to the occurrence of CHE. The study's objective was to identify the key uncertainties and driving forces influencing CHE to develop scenarios in Iran on the horizon of 2030. METHODS: This study was conducted between December 2021 and January 2023, data were collected through a literature review, and experts' opinions were gathered via questionnaires, interviews, and expert panels. The statistical population included experts in the fields of health policy, health economics, and futures studies. Scenario Wizard software and MICMAC analysis were employed for data analysis, providing valuable insights into potential future scenarios of health expenditures in Iran. RESULTS: Based on the results of the scoping review and semi-structured interview, 65 key factors in the fields of economics, politics, technology, social, and environmental were identified. The findings of the MICMAC analysis presented 10 key variables. Finally, six main scenario spaces are depicted using Scenario Wizard. These scenarios included catastrophic cost crises, sanction relief, selective information access, technological ambiguity, induced demand management, and incremental reforms. CONCLUSIONS: Each of the six drawn scenarios provides images of the future of health expenditure in Iranian households on the horizon of 2030. The worst-case scenario from all scenarios was scenario one, with the most probable and critical features to derive Iran's health expenditures. The current study is a valuable addition to the literature depicting the key drivers that all developing nations can consider to decrease exposing households to catastrophic and impoverishing health expenditures.

Cost-utility analysis of Palbociclib + letrozole and ribociclib + letrozole versus Letrozole monotherapy in the first-line treatment of metastatic breast cancer in Iran using partitioned survival model.

BACKGROUND: Palbociclib and Ribociclib are cyclin-dependent kinase 4/6 oral molecular inhibitors that have the potential to improve overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and quality of life in patients with metastatic breast cancer (MBC). The objective of this study was to analyze the cost-utility of Palbociclib and Ribociclib in comparison with Letrozole monotherapy as the first-line treatment for hormone receptor-positive (HR+)/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative (HER2-) MBC patients in Iran. METHODS: A Cost-Utility Analysis (CUA) was conducted using a partitioned survival model (PSM) from the perspective of the Iranian healthcare system. The comparative strategies considered were Palbociclib + Letrozole, Ribociclib + Letrozole, and Letrozole monotherapy. The model was structured with a 1-month cycle length and a 15-year time horizon. Clinical safety, efficacy, and survival data in terms of PFS and OS for Palbociclib + Letrozole and Ribociclib + Letrozole were obtained from the latest updates of the PALOMA-1, 2, and MONALEESA-2 studies, respectively. Direct medical costs, including drug costs, visits, hospitalization, CT scans, bone x-rays, monitoring and laboratory testing, as well as medication side effects, were considered. Uncertainty evaluations were performed through deterministic sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Excel 2016 and TreeAge 2020 were used for all stages of the evaluation. RESULTS: The base case results indicated that, despite its lower effectiveness, Letrozole monotherapy was the most cost-effective strategy, while Palbociclib + Letrozole and Ribociclib + Letrozole were not cost-effective. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for Palbociclib + Letrozole and Ribociclib + Letrozole compared to Letrozole monotherapy were estimated at $137,302 and $120,478 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), respectively, which exceeded the target threshold of $4565. Deterministic sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the CUA results were not sensitive to changes in the values of uncertain variables. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis also indicated that Palbociclib + Letrozole and Ribociclib + Letrozole had no chance of being cost-effective based on changes in various parameters and simulations. CONCLUSIONS: Palbociclib and Ribociclib showed significant efficacy in combination with Letrozole, as evidenced by improvements in PFS. However, in the first-line treatment of MBC in Iran, these strategies were not cost-effective compared to Letrozole monotherapy.

The application of artificial intelligence in health financing: a scoping review.

INTRODUCTION: Artificial Intelligence (AI) represents a significant advancement in technology, and it is crucial for policymakers to incorporate AI thinking into policies and to fully explore, analyze and utilize massive data and conduct AI-related policies. AI has the potential to optimize healthcare financing systems. This study provides an overview of the AI application domains in healthcare financing. METHOD: We conducted a scoping review in six steps: formulating research questions, identifying relevant studies by conducting a comprehensive literature search using appropriate keywords, screening titles and abstracts for relevance, reviewing full texts of relevant articles, charting extracted data, and compiling and summarizing findings. Specifically, the research question sought to identify the applications of artificial intelligence in health financing supported by the published literature and explore potential future applications. PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science databases were searched between 2000 and 2023. RESULTS: We discovered that AI has a significant impact on various aspects of health financing, such as governance, revenue raising, pooling, and strategic purchasing. We provide evidence-based recommendations for establishing and improving the health financing system based on AI. CONCLUSIONS: To ensure that vulnerable groups face minimum challenges and benefit from improved health financing, we urge national and international institutions worldwide to use and adopt AI tools and applications.

The Variations in Catastrophic and Impoverishing Health Expenditures, and Its Determinants in Iran: A Scoping Review.

Background: The high reliance on out-of-pocket (OOP) payments for health financing in Iran have been led to different inequity problems such as catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) and impoverishment. This scoping review has been conducted to understand the variations in CHE and impoverishment, the underlying determinants of CHE, and its inequality in the past 20 years. Methods: This scoping review is guided by Arksey and O'Malley's scoping review framework. systematically PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, ProQuest, Scientific Information Database, IranMedex, IranDoc, Magiran Science, Google Scholar, and grey literature were searched systematically from 1 January 2000 to August 2021. We included studies that reported the rate of CHE, impoverishment, inequality, and its influencing factors. Simple descriptive statistics and narrative synthesis were used to present the review findings. Results: From 112 included articles, the average incidence of CHE was 3.19% at the 40% threshold, and about 3.21% of the households had impoverished. We found an unfavorable status of health inequality indices, including the average of fair financial contribution (0.833), concentration (-0.01), Gini coefficient (0.42), and Kakwani (-0.149). The most widely applied key drivers influencing the rate of CHE in these studies were household economic status, place of residence, health insurance status, household size, head of the household's gender, education level and employment status, having a household member under 5/ above 60 years old, with chronic diseases (in particular cancer and dialysis), disability, using inpatient and outpatient and dentistry services, medicines and equipment, and low insurance coverage. Conclusion: The result of this review calls for intensifying health policies and financing structures in Iran to provide more equitable access to all populations, especially the poorest and vulnerable. Moreover, the government is expected to adopt effective measures in inpatient and outpatient care, dental services, medicines, and equipment.

Policy analysis of the protection of Iranian households against catastrophic health expenditures: a qualitative analysis.

BACKGROUND: Despite the adoption of various policies and strategies in recent decades, the Iranian health system has not succeeded in protecting households against catastrophic health expenditures (CHE) and impoverishment. Accordingly, this qualitative study aimed to critically analyze current policies for reducing CHE. METHODS: This qualitative study was conducted as a retrospective policy analysis based on a document review and semi-structured interviews with key informants between July to October 2022. Two theoretical frameworks were used, including the Analysis of Determinants of Policy Impact (ADEPT) model and Walt and Gilson's "Policy Triangle framework." The country's related documents were searched through databases. In total, 35 participants were interviewed. Interviews and documents were analyzed using directed content analysis in MAXQDA v12 software. Interobserver reliability, peer check, and member check were done to confirm the trustworthiness of the data. RESULTS: Twelve main themes and 42 sub-themes emerged from the data. The findings revealed that policy accessibility, policy background, and a clear statement of goals influenced the policy process. However, resources, monitoring and evaluation, opportunities, and obligations negatively affected the implementation process. In addition, a policy analysis based on the policy triangle framework demonstrated that the main factors affecting the policy on reducing CHE in Iran were "conflicts of interest," "contextual factors," "monitoring and evaluation," and "intersectoral relationship" factors. CONCLUSION: The present study reflected the multifaceted nature of the barriers to reducing CHE in Iran. The implementation of the policy on reducing CHE requires the political will to improve intersectoral collaboration, strengthen the stewardship role of the Ministry of Health, design monitoring and evaluation mechanisms, and prevent personal and organizational conflicts of interest.

Future Financing Scenarios for Iran's Healthcare System.

BACKGROUND: The financing function within a health system is considered inherently complex, so it is of utmost importance to design a suitable future for this system given uncertainties and complexities of the environment. With regard to the current and future complicated conditions, health system financing is also likely to succeed if it can anticipate the impacts of effective factors in the future and further plan appropriate interventions ahead of time. Thus, the purpose of this study was to develop scenarios for the health system financing in Iran. METHODS: This mixed-design research of exploratory future studies type was conducted using the scenario method. In this respect, the key variables were evaluated using a questionnaire from two aspects of importance and uncertainty as well as formation of a future studies group (focus group). Finally, sensitivity analysis was carried out through cross-impact balance (CIB) analysis using the Scenario Wizard (Version 4.31) software. RESULTS: A total of 25 factors were selected based on the type and the position of the variables (driving force, bi-dimensional, risk, secondary leverage or modifiable-to-secondary leverage) over the diameter of the MICMAC chart. Considering the degree of significance and uncertainty, eight variables including all four driving force variables (oil sales and economic blockade, leadership and advocacy, bureaucracy and corruption, and possibility of using information technology in providing services), as well as the variables of resource sustainability, natural disasters, regional security, and specialization culture were chosen. Then, five variables were finalized as the key changes that would create the scenario based on sensitivity analysis and final expert opinions. According to the defined conditions, 270 scenarios were developed, of which fourteen scenarios were identified as poorly adaptable and five cases as highly adaptable. CONCLUSION: The best scenario identified in this study based on the degree of adaptation included the use of massive technology and oil sales, mediocre economic conditions with high probability of occurrence, strong leadership and advocacy, high regional security, as well as bureaucracy and low corruption with medium probability of occurrence.

Hospital efficiency measurement in the west of Iran: data envelopment analysis and econometric approach.

OBJECTIVE: Measuring hospital efficiency is one of the way how to use resources.The optimal hospital performance is the goals of healthcare policymakers. This study aimed to the current study was conducted to evaluate the efficiency the current study was conducted to evaluate the efficiency and assess the association between hospital size and hospital area population with technical efficiency in public hospitals. METHODS: In this descriptive-analytical study, the statistical population consisted of 15 public hospitals in the west of Iran. First, the data envelopment analysis (DEA) method was used to evaluate technical efficiency. inputs included staff and beds, and outputs consisted of the number of surgeries, the number of patients, and the average length of stay. Then, according to the public ownership of all hospitals, their educational and therapeutic activities, as well as their size and population were considered as the environmental factor affecting efficiency. Thus, regression was applied to measure their effects on efficiency. RESULTS: The average technical efficiency of the studied hospitals, the average management efficiency, and the average efficiency of the scale were 0.935, 0.961, and 0.987, respectively. Out of the total evaluated hospitals, six and nine hospitals had an efficiency of less than one and one, respectively. Moreover, the size of the hospital and the population as the environment variable were significant in the Tobit model. Our regression demonstrated that although the size of the hospital is positively associated with its technical efficiency, the hospital population negatively affects hospital efficiency. CONCLUSION: According to the size and area population of the hospitals, they decrease their inputs to maximize their efficacy by optimizing their surplus amounts. Tobit regression analysis concludes that hospital size and population covered by the hospital significant effect on hospitals' efficiency.

Forecasting health expenditures in Iran using the ARIMA model (2016-2020).

Background: Accurate economic forecast has important effects on governmental policy and economic planning, and it can help policymakers to make decisions for future and create new infrastructures for the development of new forecasting methods. This study calculated total health expenditure, public health expenditure and out of pocket (OOP) payment for 2016-2020. Methods: Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Process (ARIMA) is one of the most important forecasting models. In this study, five-year values were forecasted using EViews8 software according to health expenditures in Iran from 1971 to 2015. Results: Applying annual data for total health expenditure, resulted in the ARIMA (1,1,1) model being the most appropriate to predict these costs. The results of this study indicate that total health expenditures will reach from about 1228338 billion IRR in 2016 to 2698346 billion IRR in 2020 and the amount of out of pocket (OOP) will become more than 41% of total health expenditure in 2020. Conclusion: Total health expenditures in 2020 will become more than two halves in 2016. These expenditures indicated there is a need for continued governmental support of this sector during the upcoming years.

Decomposing disparity in adult individual's mental health in Tehran among lower and higher economic groups; an Oaxaca- Blinder analysis on urban HEART Survey- round 2.

BACKGROUND: Mental health is one of the main aspects of social well-being. Tehran -capital of Iran- is metropolitan, where the mental health status of citizens is not prioritized effectively. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was identifying contributors of mental health inequality between lower and higher economic groups in Tehran through Oaxaca- Blinder method. METHODS: The study was conducted by the data of Tehran's Urban Heart Survey- Round 2 (2012). Through a three- stage stratified and clustered sampling method, 34,700 were selected as samples. The mental health status was measured by the General Health Questionnaire 28- items (GHQ- 28) and the quantity of the inequality in mental health was measured by corrected concentration index. The Fairlie's decomposition approach was performed in STATA 14. RESULTS: The corrected concentration index were: -0.0967 and -0.1004 by Erreyger's and Wagstaff 's approaches. Being of the Iranian origin, disability conditions, employment status and smoking were identified as the main contributors of inequality in mental health among lower and higher economic groups. CONCLUSION: Thus, re-organizing strategies and plans on promoting the socio- economic status of non-Iranian residents, improving employment opportunities, developing well-designed environment for disabled individuals and supporting plans to reduce smoking is recommended to the urban policy makers.

Assessing the Distribution of Household Financial Contribution to Health System: A Case Study of Iran.

BACKGROUND: Throughout the world, financing the healthcare system through households' financial contribution is a challenging issue in evaluating performance of healthcare systems. The purpose of this paper is illustrating the consequences of Iranian household to health system financial contribution in terms of burden and incomes approaches. METHOD: The Data derived from an annual survey by Statistics Center of Iran (SCI) on expenditure-income of 36,551 households in 2012 was used to analyze countrywide distribution indicators of households' medical expenses by measuring indices of Income and burden approaches based on World Health Organization (WHO) and World Bank recommended methodologies. RESULTS: The fairness in financial contribution index was 0.85 and 0.82, and the income redistributive effect index was 0.54 and 0.3 in urban and rural areas, respectively. The fairness in financial contribution index was found 0.84 and 0.83 and the income redistributive effect index was 0.48 and 0.25 for households with and without medical insurance, respectively.The percentages of household with catastrophic health payments were 2.4% and 4% and the change in the number of household falling below the poverty line due to health system payments was 0.4% and 2% in urban and rural areas, respectively. The percentages of household with catastrophic health payments were 2.8% and 3% and the change in the number of household falling below the poverty line due to health system payments was 0.008 and 0.011 for households with and without medical insurance, respectively. CONCLUSION: Distribution indicators of medical expenses were more favorable in urban areas compared to rural areas and Medical insurance has declined impoverishment risks and number of people suffered due to catastrophic health expenditure. In addition, the result showed that there are different approaches for analyzing the distribution of out of pocket payments which used to complement each other in respect of formulation and development policy making in health system.

Health Care Expenditure and GDP in Oil Exporting Countries: Evidence From OPEC Data, 1995-2012.

BACKGROUND: There is a large body of literature examining income in relation to health expenditures. The share of expenditures in health sector from GDP in developed countries is often larger than in non-developed countries, suggesting that as the level of economic growth increases, health spending increase, too. OBJECTIVES: This paper estimates long-run relationships between health expenditures and GDP based on panel data of a sample of 12 countries of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), using data for the period 1995-2012. PATIENTS & METHODS: We use panel data unit root tests, cointegration analysis and ECM model to find long-run and short-run relation. This study examines whether health is a luxury or a necessity for OPEC countries within a unit root and cointegration framework. RESULTS: Panel data analysis indicates that health expenditures and GDP are co-integrated and have Engle and Granger causality. In addition, in oil countries that have oil export income, the share of government expenditures in the health sector is often greater than in private health expenditures similar developed countries. CONCLUSIONS: The findings verify that health care is not a luxury good and income has a robust relationship to health expenditures in OPEC countries.

Fairness of Financial Contribution in Iranian Health System: Trend Analysis of National Household Income and Expenditure, 2003-2010.

BACKGROUND: Social systems are dealing with the challenge of achieving fairness in the distribution of financial burden and protecting the risk of financial loss. The purpose of this paper is to present a trend analysis for the indicators related to fairness in healthcare's financial burden in rural and urban population of Iran during the eight years period of 2003 to 2010. METHODS: We used the information gathered by statistical center of Iran through sampling processes for the household income and expenditures. The indicators of fairness in financial contribution of healthcare were calculated based on the WHO recommended methodology. The indices trend analysis of eight-year period for the rural, urban areas and the country level were computed. RESULTS: This study shows that in Iran the fairness of financial contribution index during the eight-year period has been decreased from 0.841 in 2003 to above 0.827 in 2010 and The percentage of people with catastrophic health expenditures has been increased from 2.3% to above 3.1%. The ratio of total treatment costs to the household overall capacity to pay has been increased from 0.055 to 0.068 and from 0.072 to 0.0818 in urban and rural areas respectively. CONCLUSION: There is a decline in fairness of financial contribution index during the study period. While, a trend stability of the proportion of households who suffered catastrophic health expenditures was found.

Main determinants of catastrophic health expenditures: a Bayesian logit approach on Iranian household survey data (2010).

BACKGROUND: During recent decades, increase in both health care expenditures and improvement of the awareness as well as health expectations have created some problems with regard to finance healthcare expenditures so that the issue of health financing by households has been determined as a major challenge in health sector. According to the definition by the World Health Organization, catastrophic health expenditure is considered if financial contribution for health service is more than 40% of income remaining after subsistence needs have been met. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of our study was determination of Main factors on catastrophic health expenditures in Iranian households. PATIENTS & METHODS: In this study, using an econometrics Bayesian logit model, determinants of the appearance of catastrophic health expenditure based on household budget data collected in 2010 were evaluated. RESULTS: Among Iranian households, the following groups were more likely to encounter with unsustainable health expenditures: rural households, households with the numbers of the elderly more than 65 years, illiterate householders, unemployed householders, households with some unemployed persons, households in upper rank and households with larger equivalent household size were higher than the average of community could significantly predict catastrophic health expenditures. CONCLUSIONS: About 2.1% of households were faced with catastrophic health expenditures in 2010. Thus, the implemented policies could not make considerable and significant change in improving justice in financing in health systems.