Effects of a multicomponent communication training to involve older people in decisions to DEPRESCRIBE cardiometabolic medication in primary care (CO-DEPRESCRIBE): protocol for a cluster randomized controlled trial with embedded process and economic evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Deprescribing of medication for cardiovascular risk factors and diabetes has been incorporated in clinical guidelines but proves to be difficult to implement in primary care. Training of healthcare providers is needed to enhance deprescribing in eligible patients. This study will examine the effects of a blended training program aimed at initiating and conducting constructive deprescribing consultations with patients. METHODS: A cluster-randomized trial will be conducted in which local pharmacy-general practice teams in the Netherlands will be randomized to conducting clinical medication reviews with patients as usual (control) or after receiving the CO-DEPRESCRIBE training program (intervention). People of 75 years and older using specific cardiometabolic medication (diabetes drugs, antihypertensives, statins) and eligible for a medication review will be included. The CO-DEPRESCRIBE intervention is based on previous work and applies models for patient-centered communication and shared decision making. It consists of 5 training modules with supportive tools. The primary outcome is the percentage of patients with at least 1 cardiometabolic medication deintensified. Secondary outcomes include patient involvement in decision making, healthcare provider communication skills, health/medication-related outcomes, attitudes towards deprescribing, medication regimen complexity and health-related quality of life. Additional safety and cost parameters will be collected. It is estimated that 167 patients per study arm are needed in the final intention-to-treat analysis using a mixed effects model. Taking loss to follow-up into account, 40 teams are asked to recruit 10 patients each. A baseline and 6-months follow-up assessment, a process evaluation, and a cost-effectiveness analysis will be conducted. DISCUSSION: The hypothesis is that the training program will lead to more proactive and patient-centered deprescribing of cardiometabolic medication. By a comprehensive evaluation, an increase in knowledge needed for sustainable implementation of deprescribing in primary care is expected. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (identifier: NCT05507177).

Cost-Effectiveness of SGLT2 Inhibitors in a Real-World Population: A MICADO Model-Based Analysis Using Routine Data from a GP Registry.

OBJECTIVE: Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) have been shown to reduce the risk of cardiovascular complications, which largely drive diabetes' health and economic burdens. Trial results indicated that SGLT2i are cost effective. However, these findings may not be generalizable to the real-world target population. This study aims to evaluate the cost effectiveness of SGLT2i in a routine care type 2 diabetes population that meets Dutch reimbursement criteria using the MICADO model. METHODS: Individuals from the Hoorn Diabetes Care System cohort (N = 15,392) were filtered to satisfy trial inclusion criteria (including EMPA-REG, CANVAS, and DECLARE-TIMI58) or satisfy the current Dutch reimbursement criteria for SGLT2i. We validated a health economic model (MICADO) by comparing simulated and observed outcomes regarding the relative risks of events in the intervention and comparator arm from three trials, and used the validated model to evaluate the long-term health outcomes using the filtered cohorts' baseline characteristics and treatment effects from trials and a review of observational studies. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of SGLT2i, compared with care-as-usual, was assessed from a third-party payer perspective, measured in euros (2021 price level), using a discount rate of 4% for costs and 1.5% for effects. RESULTS: From Dutch individuals with diabetes in routine care, 15.8% qualify for the current Dutch reimbursement criteria for SGLT2i. Their characteristics were significantly different (lower HbA1c, higher age, and generally more preexisting complications) than trial populations. After validating the MICADO model, we found that lifetime ICERs of SGLT2i, when compared with usual care, were favorable (< €20,000/QALY) for all filtered cohorts, resulting in an ICER of €5440/QALY using trial-based treatment effect estimates in reimbursed population. Several pragmatic scenarios were tested, the ICERs remained favorable. CONCLUSIONS: Although the Dutch reimbursement indications led to a target group that deviates from trial populations, SGLT2i are likely to be cost effective when compared with usual care.

Potential Value of Identifying Type 2 Diabetes Subgroups for Guiding Intensive Treatment: A Comparison of Novel Data-Driven Clustering With Risk-Driven Subgroups.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the impact on lifetime health and economic outcomes of different methods of stratifying individuals with type 2 diabetes, followed by guideline-based treatment intensification targeting BMI and LDL in addition to HbA1c. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We divided 2,935 newly diagnosed individuals from the Hoorn Diabetes Care System (DCS) cohort into five Risk Assessment and Progression of Diabetes (RHAPSODY) data-driven clustering subgroups (based on age, BMI, HbA1c, C-peptide, and HDL) and four risk-driven subgroups by using fixed cutoffs for HbA1c and risk of cardiovascular disease based on guidelines. The UK Prospective Diabetes Study Outcomes Model 2 estimated discounted expected lifetime complication costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for each subgroup and across all individuals. Gains from treatment intensification were compared with care as usual as observed in DCS. A sensitivity analysis was conducted based on Ahlqvist subgroups. RESULTS: Under care as usual, prognosis in the RHAPSODY data-driven subgroups ranged from 7.9 to 12.6 QALYs. Prognosis in the risk-driven subgroups ranged from 6.8 to 12.0 QALYs. Compared with homogenous type 2 diabetes, treatment for individuals in the high-risk subgroups could cost 22.0% and 25.3% more and still be cost effective for data-driven and risk-driven subgroups, respectively. Targeting BMI and LDL in addition to HbA1c might deliver up to 10-fold increases in QALYs gained. CONCLUSIONS: Risk-driven subgroups better discriminated prognosis. Both stratification methods supported stratified treatment intensification, with the risk-driven subgroups being somewhat better in identifying individuals with the most potential to benefit from intensive treatment. Irrespective of stratification approach, better cholesterol and weight control showed substantial potential for health gains.

Prediction of complications in health economic models of type 2 diabetes: a review of methods used.

AIM: Diabetes health economic (HE) models play important roles in decision making. For most HE models of diabetes 2 diabetes (T2D), the core model concerns the prediction of complications. However, reviews of HE models pay little attention to the incorporation of prediction models. The objective of the current review is to investigate how prediction models have been incorporated into HE models of T2D and to identify challenges and possible solutions. METHODS: PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, and Cochrane were searched from January 1, 1997, to November 15, 2022, to identify published HE models for T2D. All models that participated in The Mount Hood Diabetes Simulation Modeling Database or previous challenges were manually searched. Data extraction was performed by two independent authors. Characteristics of HE models, their underlying prediction models, and methods of incorporating prediction models were investigated. RESULTS: The scoping review identified 34 HE models, including a continuous-time object-oriented model (n = 1), discrete-time state transition models (n = 18), and discrete-time discrete event simulation models (n = 15). Published prediction models were often applied to simulate complication risks, such as the UKPDS (n = 20), Framingham (n = 7), BRAVO (n = 2), NDR (n = 2), and RECODe (n = 2). Four methods were identified to combine interdependent prediction models for different complications, including random order evaluation (n = 12), simultaneous evaluation (n = 4), the 'sunflower method' (n = 3), and pre-defined order (n = 1). The remaining studies did not consider interdependency or reported unclearly. CONCLUSIONS: The methodology of integrating prediction models in HE models requires further attention, especially regarding how prediction models are selected, adjusted, and ordered.

Personalizing the Use of a Intermittently Scanned Continuous Glucose Monitoring (isCGM) Device in Individuals With Type 1 Diabetes: A Cost-Effectiveness Perspective in the Netherlands (FLARE-NL 9).

AIMS: Intermittently scanned continuous glucose monitoring (isCGM) is a method to monitor glucose concentrations without using a finger prick. Among persons with type 1 diabetes (T1D), isCGM results in improved glycemic control, less disease burden and improved health-related quality of life (HRQoL). However, it is not clear for which subgroups of patients isCGM is cost-effective. We aimed to provide a real-world cost-effectiveness perspective. METHODS: We used clinical data from a 1-year nationwide Dutch prospective observational study (N = 381) and linked these to insurance records. Health-related quality of life was assessed with the EQ-5D-3L questionnaire. Individuals were categorized into 4 subgroups: (1) frequent hypoglycemic events (58%), (2) HbA1c > 70 mmol/mol (8.5%) (19%), (3) occupation that requires avoiding finger pricks and/or hypoglycemia (5%), and (4) multiple indications (18%). Comparing costs and outcomes 12 months before and after isCGM initiation, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated for the total cohort and each subgroup from a societal perspective (including healthcare and productivity loss costs) at the willingness to pay of €50,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. RESULTS: From a societal perspective, isCGM was dominant in all subgroups (ie higher HRQoL gain with lower costs) except for subgroup 1. From a healthcare payer perspective, the probabilities of isCGM being cost-effective were 16%, 9%, 30%, 98%, and 65% for the total cohort and subgroup 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively. Most sensitivity analyses confirmed these findings. CONCLUSIONS: Comparing subgroups of isCGM users allows to prioritize them based on cost-effectiveness. The most cost-effective subgroup was occupation-related indications, followed by multiple indications, high HbA1c and the frequent hypoglycemic events subgroups. However, controlled studies with larger sample size are needed to draw definitive conclusions.

Cost Effectiveness and Budget Impact of the Boston University Approach to Psychiatric Rehabilitation for Increasing the Social Participation of Individuals With Severe Mental Illnesses.

Background: The purpose of this study was to investigate the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of the Boston University Approach to Psychiatric Rehabilitation (BPR) compared to an active control condition (ACC) to increase the social participation (in competitive employment, unpaid work, education, and meaningful daily activities) of individuals with severe mental illnesses (SMIs). ACC can be described as treatment as usual but with an active component, namely the explicit assignment of providing support with rehabilitation goals in the area of social participation. Method: In a randomized clinical trial with 188 individuals with SMIs, BPR (n = 98) was compared to ACC (n = 90). Costs were assessed with the Treatment Inventory of Costs in Patients with psychiatric disorders (TIC-P). Outcome measures for the cost-effectiveness analysis were incremental cost per Quality Adjusted Life Year (QALY) and incremental cost per proportional change in social participation. Budget Impact was investigated using four implementation scenarios and two costing variants. Results: Total costs per participant at 12-month follow-up were € 12,886 in BPR and € 12,012 in ACC, a non-significant difference. There were no differences with regard to social participation or QALYs. Therefore, BPR was not cost-effective compared to ACC. Types of expenditure with the highest costs were in order of magnitude: supported and sheltered housing, inpatient care, outpatient care, and organized activities. Estimated budget impact of wide BPR implementation ranged from cost savings to €190 million, depending on assumptions regarding uptake. There were no differences between the two costing variants meaning that from a health insurer perspective, there would be no additional costs if BPR was implemented on a wider scale in mental health care institutions. Conclusions: This was the first study to investigate BPR cost-effectiveness and budget impact. The results showed that BPR was not cost-effective compared to ACC. When interpreting the results, one must keep in mind that the cost-effectiveness of BPR was investigated in the area of social participation, while BPR was designed to offer support in all rehabilitation areas. Therefore, more studies are needed before definite conclusions can be drawn on the cost-effectiveness of the method as a whole.

The transferability and validity of a population-level simulation model for the economic evaluation of interventions in diabetes: the MICADO model.

AIMS: Valid health economic models are essential to inform the adoption and reimbursement of therapies for diabetes mellitus. Often existing health economic models are applied in other countries and settings than those where they were developed. This practice requires assessing the transferability of a model developed from one setting to another. We evaluate the transferability of the MICADO model, developed for the Dutch 2007 setting, in two different settings using a range of adjustment steps. MICADO predicts micro- and macrovascular events at the population level. METHODS: MICADO simulation results were compared to observed events in an Italian 2000-2015 cohort (Casale Monferrato Survey [CMS]) and in a Dutch 2008-2019 (Hoorn Diabetes Care Center [DCS]) cohort after adjusting the demographic characteristics. Additional adjustments were performed to: (1) risk factors prevalence at baseline, (2) prevalence of complications, and (3) all-cause mortality risks by age and sex. Model validity was assessed by mean average percentage error (MAPE) of cumulative incidences over 10 years of follow-up, where lower values mean better accuracy. RESULTS: For mortality, MAPE was lower for CMS compared to DCS (0.38 vs. 0.70 following demographic adjustment) and adjustment step 3 improved it to 0.20 in CMS, whereas step 2 showed best results in DCS (0.65). MAPE for heart failure and stroke in DCS were 0.11 and 0.22, respectively, while for CMS was 0.42 and 0.41. CONCLUSIONS: The transferability of the MICADO model varied by event and per cohort. Additional adjustments improved prediction of events for MICADO. To ensure a valid model in a new setting it is imperative to assess the impact of adjustments in terms of model accuracy, even when this involves the same country, but a new time period.

Reducing the Burden of Disease Through Tobacco Taxes in Mongolia: A Health Impact Analysis Using a Dynamic Public Health Model.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Smoking is the leading risk factor for many chronic diseases. The quantitative analysis of potential health gains from reduced smoking is important for establishing priorities in Mongolia's health policy. This study quantifies the effect of tobacco-tax increases on future smoking prevalence and the associated smoking-related burden of disease in Mongolia. METHODS: The dynamic model for health impact assessment (DYNAMO-HIA) tool was used. The most recent data were used as input for evaluating tobacco-taxation scenarios. Demographic data were taken from the Mongolian Statistical Information Services. Smoking data came from a representative population-based STEPS survey, and smoking-related disease data were obtained from the health-information database of Mongolia's National Health Center. Simulation was used to evaluate various levels of one-time price increases on tobacco products (25% and 75%) in Mongolia. Conservative interpretation suggests that the population will eventually adjust to the higher tobacco price and return to baseline smoking behaviors. RESULTS: Over a three-year period, smoking prevalence would be reduced by 1.2% points, corresponding to almost 40 thousand smokers at the population level for a price increase of 75%, compared to the baseline scenario. Projected health benefits of this scenario suggest that more than 137 thousand quality adjusted of life years would be gained by avoiding smoking-related diseases within a population of three million over a 30-year period. DISCUSSION: Prevention through effective tobacco-control policy could yield considerable gains in population health in Mongolia. Compared to current policy, tax increases must be higher to have a significant effect on population health. IMPLICATIONS: Tobacco taxation is an effective policy for reducing the harm of tobacco smoking, while benefiting population health in countries where the tobacco epidemic is still in an early stage. Smoking prevalence and smoking behaviors in these countries differ from those in Western countries. Reducing the uptake of smoking among young people could be a particularly worthwhile benefit of tobacco-tax increases.

More than cost-effectiveness? Applying a second-stage filter to improve policy decision making.

BACKGROUND: Apart from cost-effectiveness, considerations like equity and acceptability may affect health-care priority setting. Preferably, priority setting combines evidence evaluation with an appraisal procedure, to elicit and weigh these considerations. OBJECTIVE: To demonstrate a structured approach for eliciting and evaluating a broad range of assessment criteria, including key stakeholders' values, aiming to support decision makers in priority setting. METHODS: For a set of cost-effective substitute interventions for depression care, the appraisal criteria were adopted from the Australian Assessing Cost-Effectiveness initiative. All substitute interventions were assessed in an appraisal, using focus group discussions and semi-structured interviews conducted among key stakeholders. RESULTS: Appraisal of the substitute cost-effective interventions yielded an overview of considerations and an overall recommendation for decision makers. Two out of the thirteen pairs were deemed acceptable and realistic, that is investment in therapist-guided and Internet-based cognitive behavioural therapy instead of cognitive behavioural therapy in mild depression, and investment in combination therapy rather than individual psychotherapy in severe depression. In the remaining substitution pairs, substantive issues affected acceptability. The key issues identified were as follows: workforce capacity, lack of stakeholder support and the need for change in clinicians' attitude. CONCLUSIONS: Systematic identification of stakeholders' considerations allows decision makers to prioritize among cost-effective policy options. Moreover, this approach entails an explicit and transparent priority-setting procedure and provides insights into the intended and unintended consequences of using a certain health technology. PATIENT CONTRIBUTION: Patients were involved in the conduct of the study for instance, by sharing their values regarding considerations relevant for priority setting.

Real-World Treatment Costs and Care Utilization in Patients with Major Depressive Disorder With and Without Psychiatric Comorbidities in Specialist Mental Healthcare.

BACKGROUND: The majority of patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) have comorbid mental conditions. OBJECTIVES: Since most cost-of-illness studies correct for comorbidity, this study focuses on mental healthcare utilization and treatment costs in patients with MDD including psychiatric comorbidities in specialist mental healthcare, particularly patients with a comorbid personality disorder (PD). METHODS: The Psychiatric Case Register North Netherlands contains administrative data of specialist mental healthcare providers. Treatment episodes were identified from uninterrupted healthcare use. Costs were calculated by multiplying care utilization with unit prices (price level year: 2018). Using generalized linear models, cost drivers were investigated for the entire cohort. RESULTS: A total of 34,713 patients had MDD as a primary diagnosis over the period 2000-2012. The number of patients with psychiatric comorbidities was 24,888 (71.7%), including 13,798 with PD. Costs were highly skewed, with an average ± standard deviation cost per treatment episode of €21,186 ± 74,192 (median €2320). Major cost drivers were inpatient days and daycare days (50 and 28% of total costs), occurring in 12.7 and 12.5% of episodes, respectively. Compared with patients with MDD only (€11,612), costs of patients with additional PD and with or without other comorbidities were, respectively, 2.71 (p < .001) and 2.06 (p < .001) times higher and were 1.36 (p < .001) times higher in patients with MDD and comorbidities other than PD. Other cost drivers were age, calendar year, and first episodes. CONCLUSIONS: Psychiatric comorbidities (especially PD) in addition to age and first episodes drive costs in patients with MDD. Knowledge of cost drivers may help in the development of future stratified disease management programs.

A personalised screening strategy for diabetic retinopathy: a cost-effectiveness perspective.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: In this study we examined the cost-effectiveness of three different screening strategies for diabetic retinopathy: using a personalised adaptive model, annual screening (fixed intervals), and the current Dutch guideline (stratified based on previous retinopathy grade). METHODS: For each individual, optimal diabetic retinopathy screening intervals were determined, using a validated risk prediction model. Observational data (1998-2017) from the Hoorn Diabetes Care System cohort of people with type 2 diabetes were used (n = 5514). The missing values of retinopathy grades were imputed using two scenarios of slow and fast sight-threatening retinopathy (STR) progression. By comparing the model-based screening intervals to observed time to develop STR, the number of delayed STR diagnoses was determined. Costs were calculated using the healthcare perspective and the societal perspective. Finally, outcomes and costs were compared for the different screening strategies. RESULTS: For the fast STR progression scenario, personalised screening resulted in 11.6% more delayed STR diagnoses and €11.4 less costs per patient compared to annual screening from a healthcare perspective. The personalised screening model performed better in terms of timely diagnosis of STR (8.8% less delayed STR diagnosis) but it was slightly more expensive (€1.8 per patient from a healthcare perspective) than the Dutch guideline strategy. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: The personalised diabetic retinopathy screening model is more cost-effective than the Dutch guideline screening strategy. Although the personalised screening strategy was less effective, in terms of timely diagnosis of STR patients, than annual screening, the number of delayed STR diagnoses is low and the cost saving is considerable. With around one million people with type 2 diabetes in the Netherlands, implementing this personalised model could save €11.4 million per year compared with annual screening, at the cost of 658 delayed STR diagnoses with a maximum delayed time to diagnosis of 48 months.

The cost-effectiveness of digital breast tomosynthesis in a population breast cancer screening program.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate at which sensitivity digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) would become cost-effective compared to digital mammography (DM) in a population breast cancer screening program, given a constant estimate of specificity. METHODS: In a microsimulation model, the cost-effectiveness of biennial screening for women aged 50-75 was simulated for three scenarios: DBT for women with dense breasts and DM for women with fatty breasts (scenario 1), DBT for the whole population (scenario 2) or maintaining DM screening (reference). For DM, sensitivity was varied depending on breast density from 65 to 87%, and for DBT from 65 to 100%. The specificity was set at 96.5% for both DM and DBT. Direct medical costs were considered, including screening, biopsy and treatment costs. Scenarios were considered to be cost-effective if the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was below €20,000 per life year gain (LYG). RESULTS: For both scenarios, the ICER was more favourable at increasing DBT sensitivity. Compared with DM screening, 0.8-10.2% more LYGs were found when DBT sensitivity was at least 75% for scenario 1, and 4.7-18.7% when DBT sensitivity was at least 80% for scenario 2. At €96 per DBT, scenario 1 was cost-effective at a DBT sensitivity of at least 90%, and at least 95% for scenario 2. At €80 per DBT, these values decreased to 80% and 90%, respectively. CONCLUSION: DBT is more likely to be a cost-effective alternative to mammography in women with dense breasts. Whether DBT could be cost-effective in a general population highly depends on DBT costs. KEY POINTS: • DBT could be a cost-effective screening modality for women with dense breasts when its sensitivity is at least 90% at a maximum cost per screen of €96. • DBT has the potential to be cost-effective for screening all women when sensitivity is at least 90% at a maximum cost per screen of €80. • Whether DBT could be used as an alternative to mammography for screening all women is highly dependent on the cost of DBT per screen.

Cost-effectiveness and budget impact of a lifestyle intervention to improve cardiometabolic health in patients with severe mental illness.

Introduction: This study assessed the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of a lifestyle intervention to improve cardiometabolic health in severe mentally ill (SMI) patients in the LION trial. Methods: Patients (n = 244) were randomized to receive either care-as-usual or a lifestyle intervention in which mental health nurses coached patients in changing their lifestyle by using a web tool. Costs and quality of life were assessed at baseline and at 6 and 12 months. Incremental costs per centimeter waist circumference (WC) lost and per Quality-Adjusted Life Year (QALY) gained were assessed. Budget impact was estimated based on three intervention-uptake scenarios using a societal and a third-party payer perspective. Results: Costs and reduction in WC were higher in the intervention (n = 114) than in the control (n = 94) group after 12 months, although not statistically significant, resulting in €1,370 per cm WC lost. QALYs did not differ between the groups, resulting in a low probability of the intervention being cost-effective in cost/QALY gained. The budget impact analysis showed that for a reasonable participation of 43%, total costs were around €81 million over 5 years, or on average €16 million annually (societal perspective). Conclusions: The intervention is not cost-effective at 12 months and the budget impact over 5 years is substantial. Possibly, 12 months was too short to implement the intervention, improve cardiometabolic health, and reduce care costs. Therefore, the incentive for this intervention cannot be found in short-term financial advantages. However, there may be benefits associated with lifestyle interventions in the long term that remain unclear.

Costs of people with diabetes in relation to average glucose control: an empirical approach controlling for year of onset cohorts.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the impact of glycaemic control and time since diabetes diagnosis on care costs incurred by people with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Random-effects linear regression models were run to test the impact of average glucose control (HbA1c) and time since diabetes diagnosis on total care spending in people with T2DM, adjusting for year of onset and other covariates. Two datasets were linked, Vektis (healthcare costs reimbursed by the Dutch mandatory health insurance) and Zodiac (clinical and sociodemographic data). The sample includes 22,612 observations, grouped in 5653 individuals from the Northern part of the Netherlands, covering 4 years (2008-2011). RESULTS: A 1% point increase in HbA1c is associated with a 2.2% higher total care costs. However, when treatment modality is included, the results are modified. A 1% point increase (11 mol/mol) in HbA1c is significantly associated with 3.4% higher total care costs for individuals without glucose-lowering treatment. Being treated with insulin is significantly associated with an increase in costs of 30-38% for every additional percentage point of HbA1c, depending on the covariates included. Without controlling for year of onset, an additional year of diabetes duration relates to 2.6% higher care costs, while this is 4.9% controlling for year of onset. The effect of HbA1c and diabetes duration differs between types of costs. CONCLUSION: HbA1c, insulin treatment and diabetes duration are the main drivers of increasing care costs. The results signal the relevance of controlling for HbA1c together with treatment modality, diabetes duration and year of diagnosis effects.

A social cost-benefit analysis of two One Health interventions to prevent toxoplasmosis.

In the Netherlands, toxoplasmosis ranks second in disease burden among foodborne pathogens with an estimated health loss of 1,900 Disability Adjusted Life Years and a cost-of-illness estimated at €45 million annually. Therefore, effective and preferably cost-effective preventive interventions are warranted. Freezing meat intended for raw or undercooked consumption and improving biosecurity in pig farms are promising interventions to prevent Toxoplasma gondii infections in humans. Putting these interventions into practice would expectedly reduce the number of infections; however, the net benefits for society are unknown. Stakeholders bearing the costs for these interventions will not necessary coincide with the ones having the benefits. We performed a Social Cost-Benefit Analysis to evaluate the net value of two potential interventions for the Dutch society. We assessed the costs and benefits of the two interventions and compared them with the current practice of education, especially during pregnancy. A 'minimum scenario' and a 'maximum scenario' was assumed, using input parameters with least benefits to society and input parameters with most benefits to society, respectively. For both interventions, we performed different scenario analyses. The freezing meat intervention was far more effective than the biosecurity intervention. Despite high freezing costs, freezing two meat products: steak tartare and mutton leg yielded net social benefits in both the minimum and maximum scenario, ranging from €10.6 million to €31 million for steak tartare and €0.6 million to €1.5 million for mutton leg. The biosecurity intervention would result in net costs in all scenarios ranging from €1 million to €2.5 million, due to high intervention costs and limited benefits. From a public health perspective (i.e. reducing the burden of toxoplasmosis) and the societal perspective (i.e. a net benefit for the Dutch society) freezing steak tartare and leg of mutton is to be considered.

Should women with a BRCA1/2 mutation aged 60 and older be offered intensified breast cancer screening? - A cost-effectiveness analysis.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to investigate the cost-effectiveness of intensified breast cancer (BC) screening for women with a BRCA1/2 mutation aged 60-74. Simulated strategies were: (0) annual mammography as reference, (1) alternating annual mammography and MRI for women with dense breasts only; (2) addition of annual MRI for women with dense breasts only; (3) addition of annual MRI for all women. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A validated micro-simulation model of invasive BC was updated and validated for interval BC rates and tumor size distribution. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) of all three intensified strategies were compared to the next best strategy and stratified for BRCA1 and BRCA2. Discount rates for costs and life years gained (LYG) were 1.5% and 4% for the Dutch situation; 3% and 3% for international comparison. A threshold of €20,000 per LYG was applied. RESULTS: All intensified strategies showed more detected BCs and LYG, reduced BC deaths, and increased false positives. The Dutch discounted ICER of intensified strategy 1 compared to annual mammography was €38,000 per LYG in BRCA1 mutation carriers and €18,000 per LYG in BRCA2 mutation carriers. Further intensified strategies showed an ICER above the threshold when compared to this strategy. With international discount rate, the ICERs of all intensified strategies were above the threshold. CONCLUSION: Of the three alternative strategies, only alternating annual MRI and mammography for BRCA2 mutation carriers and dense breasts aged 60-75 is cost-effective compared to annual mammography. For BRCA1 mutation carriers, none of the alternative strategies is cost-effective compared to the next best strategy.

The cost-utility of stepped-care algorithms according to depression guideline recommendations - Results of a state-transition model analysis.

BACKGROUND: Evidence-based clinical guidelines for major depressive disorder (MDD) recommend stepped-care strategies for sequencing evidence-based treatments conditional on treatment outcomes. This study aims to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of stepped care as recommended by the multidisciplinary clinical guideline vis-à-vis usual care in the Netherlands. METHODS: Guideline-congruent care as described in stepped-care algorithms for either mild MDD or moderate and severe MDD was compared with usual care in a health-economic state-transition simulation model. Incremental costs per QALY gained were estimated over five years from a healthcare perspective. RESULTS: For mild MDD, the cost-utility analysis showed a 67% likelihood of better health outcomes against lower costs, and 33% likelihood of better outcomes against higher costs, implying dominance of guideline-congruent stepped care. For moderate and severe MDD, the cost-utility analysis indicated a 67% likelihood of health gains at higher costs following the stepped-care approach and 33% likelihood of health gains at lower costs, with a mean ICER of about €3,200 per QALY gained. At a willingness to pay threshold of €20,000 per QALY, the stepped-care algorithms for both mild MDD and moderate or severe MDD is deemed cost-effective compared to usual care with a greater than 95% probability. LIMITATIONS: The findings of our decision-analytic modelling are limited by the accuracy and availability of the underlying evidence. This hampers taking into account all individual differences relevant to optimise treatment to individual needs. CONCLUSIONS: It is highly likely that guideline-congruent stepped care for MDD is cost-effective compared to usual care. Our findings support current guideline recommendations.

Molecular imaging with positron emission tomography and computed tomography (PET/CT) for selecting first-line targeted treatment in metastatic breast cancer: a cost-effectiveness study.

Our aim was to evaluate the potential cost-effectiveness of PET/CT with FES and 89Zr-trastuzumab compared to pathology to select first-line targeted treatment in metastatic breast cancer (MBC) patients with non-rapidly progressive disease. A previously published and validated model was extended and adapted for this analysis. Two alternative scenarios were compared. In the care as usual pathway first-line targeted treatment of MBC patients was assigned on the basis of pathology results, while in the intervention pathway treatment selection was based on the results from the PET/CT imaging. Costs, life years gained (LYG) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) were calculated. More MBC lesions were detected in the intervention pathway than in the care as usual pathway. The diagnostic costs to evaluate the receptor status and the treatment costs were higher in the intervention strategy, as were total costs and total LYG. The ICER for replacing biopsies with PET/CT imaging with FES and 89Zr-trastuzumab, assuming sensitivity of 77.1% and specificity of 80%, ranged from €71,000 to €77,000 per LYG. When assuming sensitivity of 80% and specificity of 76.7%, the ICER for replacing biopsies with PET/CT imaging with FES and 89Zr-trastuzumab ranged from to €74,000 to €80,000 per LYG. The application of PET/CT with FES and 89Zr-trastuzumab in first-line treatment selection for MBC patients has the potential to be a cost-effective intervention. Our analysis demonstrated that even a small increase in the sensitivity and the specificity of PET/CT can have a large impact on its potential cost-effectiveness.

A modelling study to evaluate the costs and effects of lowering the starting age of population breast cancer screening.

BACKGROUND: Because the incidence of breast cancer increases between 45 and 50years of age, a reconsideration is required of the current starting age (typically 50years) for routine mammography. Our aim was to evaluate the quantitative benefits, harms, and cost-effectiveness of lowering the starting age of breast cancer screening in the Dutch general population. METHODS: Economic modelling with a lifelong perspective compared biennial screening for women aged 48-74years and for women aged 46-74years with the current Dutch screening programme, which screen women between the ages of 50 and 74years. Tumour deaths prevented, years of life saved (YOLS), false-positive rates, radiation-induced tumours, costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were evaluated. RESULTS: Starting the screening at 48 instead of 50 years of age led to increases in: the number of small tumours detected (4.0%), tumour deaths prevented (5.6%), false positives (9.2%), YOLS (5.6%), radiation-induced tumours (14.7%), and costs (4.1%). Starting the screening at 46 instead of 48 years of age increased the number of small tumours detected (3.3%), tumour deaths prevented (4.2%), false positives (8.8%), YOLS (3.7%), radiation-induced tumours (15.2%), and costs (4.0%). The ICER was €5600/YOLS for the 48-74 scenario and €5600/YOLS for the 46-74 scenario. CONCLUSIONS: Women could benefit from lowering the starting age of screening as more breast cancer deaths would be averted. Starting regular breast cancer screening earlier is also cost-effective. As the number of additional expected harms is relatively small in both the scenarios examined, and the difference in ICERs is not large, introducing two additional screening rounds is justifiable.