[Health care expenditures and the aging population]. / Gesundheitsausgaben und demografischer Wandel.

The impact of a longer life on future health care expenditures will be quite moderate because of the high costs of dying and the compression of mortality in old age. If not age per se but proximity to death determines the bulk of expenditures, a shift in the mortality risk to higher ages will not significantly affect lifetime health care expenditures, as death occurs only once in every life. A calculation of the demographic effect on health care expenditures in Germany up until 2050 that explicitly accounts for costs in the last years of life leads to a significantly lower demographic impact on per-capita expenditures than a calculation based on crude age-specific health expenditures.

[Susceptibility to strategy of the drug component of the IPHCC+RxGroups classification system in a risk-adjusted morbidity compensation scheme--a conceptional and data-supported analysis]. / Zur Strategieanfälligkeit der Arzneimittelkomponente des IPHCC+RxGroups-Klassifikationssystems in einem morbiditätsorientierten Risikostrukturausgleich--Eine konzeptionelle und datengestützte Analyse.

BACKGROUND: A report commissioned by the German Ministry of Health recommends to the existing scheme for calculating risk-adjusted transfers to sickness funds supplement with the IPHCC+RxGroups method. The method is based on inpatient diagnoses and prescribed drugs as health status measures deduced from prior use. OBJECTIVE: The present study investigates the sickness fund's expected net return from gaming based on the drug component of the risk adjuster. METHODS: The study explores three possible strategies using the RxGroups method. For the stimulations, insurees are assigned to additional indications or to higher valued RxGroups within the same indication. Then, costs and financial benefits attributable to the altered drug use are estimated and compared with the status quo. The study uses 2000 and 2001 sample data of more than 370,000 insurees of Germany's company-based sickness funds system (BKK). RESULTS: While upgrading increases overall costs, it can be beneficial for the individual sickness funds. Their net return crucially depends on the number of sickness funds gaming the system: the more participating in the game, the smaller is the average net return. Moreover, not participating often is even worse, which in turn points to a prisoner's dilemma. CONCLUSIONS: When extending the risk adjustment scheme in social health insurance, the German legislator should take into account the perverse incentives of risk adjusters such as the described prescription drug model.

[Cost of miniplate osteosynthesis for treatment of mandibular fractures: a prospective evaluation]. / Kosten der Unterkieferfrakturversorgung: Eine prospektive Untersuchung.

PURPOSE: Up to now in maxillofacial surgery almost all inpatient treatments were reimbursed at the hospital's per diem rate. The real treatment cost is unknown and there is a lack of publications in this sphere. This study calculates the cost of surgical treatment of mandibular fractures. METHOD: The prospective study includes 104 patients whose mandibular fractures were treated using miniplate osteosynthesis. For each patient we took into account the time input by physicians and specialised nurses and calculated labour cost using the relevant wage rates. We added the cost for materials and drugs as well as for laboratory and radiographic examinations. Finally, we incorporated charges for the hotel and nursing components of inpatient treatment. RESULTS: The cost for the surgical treatment of mandibular fractures varied between 642 euro; for single and 1,070 euro; for triple fractures. The share of labour cost is about 1/3. Treatment cost varies with the length of hospital stay: 1,132 euro; for four days and 1,628 euro; for seven days on average. CONCLUSION: This prospective study can be compared with the recently published corresponding G-DRG rates. Moreover, the reported cost figures allow comparison with corresponding cost studies from other public health systems.

Reply to: Econometric issues in testing the age neutrality of health care expenditure.

Salas and Raftery allege that in our paper, (1) remaining life expectancy is an endogenous explanatory variable of health care expenditure and (2) the parameter designed to correct for sample selection bias in fact represents a hidden relationship between health care expenditure and age. We argue that claim (1) is not supported by the available empirical evidence, while claim (2) seems to derive from a too cursory reading of our paper.

[Evaluation of the public health service law of the Saxony-Anhalt region--community affairs, transfer of power and loss of control]. / Evaluation des Gesundheitsdienstgesetzes des Landes Sachsen-Anhalt--Kommunalisierung, Konnexität und Kontrollverlust.

AIM: In the state of Saxony-Anhalt, a new Public Health Service law came into force in 1998. Our study investigated whether this new legislation has led to an extension of duties performed by regional health departments and to a subsequent increase in expenditure. METHODS: Guided interviews at all administrative levels of the public health system were conducted. The catalogue of duties was systematized and a questionnaire was developed and distributed to all regional health departments (response rate: 17 out of 24). Data concerning revenues and expenditures of the regional health departments were analysed on the basis of the administrative districts' budget data. RESULTS: Regional health departments stated that there had been practically no change in their activities over the last few years. When questioned about the coverage of 58 specific duties, a considerable disparity was evident between departments. A core group of "classical" duties comprising environmental health and hygiene, child health protection, individual health appraisal, and public health supervision are carried out on an established basis. Some duties were handled by external institutions, others, mostly community health duties, were not performed on an extensive scale. When asked about the desired model for their health department, most departments preferred the model of being an executor of sovereign duties, however a corporate model was deemed to be almost as acceptable. The following fields will gain increasing significance in the future: environmental medicine, health reporting, preventive medicine, co-ordination of regional health care, and health promotion. Since 1995, staff has been reduced in all regional health departments (-10.4%; 1999: 2.92 employees per 10,000 inhabitants). In 1999, expenditures amounted to an average of 24.64 German Marks per capita (range 14.20-44.58 DM). The number of inhabitants and the revenue of the regional districts were determinants of their health budgets. CONCLUSION: Our results showed that no uncompensated additional expenditure by regional authorities resulted from this law. So far, most districts have not perceived regional health as a community affair offering possible competitive advantages. The federal state lost considerable influence at the regional level. Recommended are regional health priorities, conjoint staff development, and state guidance by a head agency providing leadership and support, while leaving responsibility with the districts.

Health care expenditure in the last months of life.

In OECD countries, a considerable share of health care expenditure (HCE) is spent for the care of the terminally ill. This paper derives the demand for HCE in the last 2 years of life from a model that accounts for age, mortality risk and wealth. The empirical tests are based on data of deceased members of a major Swiss sick fund. The empirical evidence confirms most of the hypotheses derived from the model, i.e., (i) HCE increases with closeness to death, (ii) for retired individuals, HCE decreases with age, and (iii) low-income individuals, as compared to high-income individuals, incur lower HCE in the last months of life.

Ageing of population and health care expenditure: a red herring?

This paper studies the relationship between health care expenditure (HCE) and age, using longitudinal rather than cross-sectional data. The econometric analysis of HCE in the last eight quarters of life of individuals who died during the period 1983-1992 indicates that HCE depends on remaining lifetime but not on calendar age, at least beyond 65+. The positive relationship between age and HCE observed in cross-sectional data may be caused by the simple fact that at age 80, for example, there are many more individuals living in their last 2 years than at age 65. The limited impact of age on HCE suggests that population ageing may contribute much less to future growth of the health care sector than claimed by most observers.

Costs of dying: alternatives to rationing.

In western industrialised countries, about 30% of health-care expenditure of retired people is incurred by individuals in their last year of life. The corresponding high costs of dying have led medical philosophers to ask for a rationing of health-care services according to age. By contrast, this paper pursues an individualistic approach. High costs of dying are identified as a consequence of moral hazard on both the demand and supply side of the health-care sector. Health insurance prevents demand for health-care services from decreasing when an individual's residual life expectancy shrinks. Age-related moral hazard can be limited by a coinsurance scheme with a deductible that increases with the age of the insured. Given the high costs of dying, the optimal insurance policy links the coinsurance rate to the age-specific mortality risk.