Hip Fracture Risk Assessment Tools for Adults Aged 80 Years and Older.

Importance: While adults aged 80 years and older account for 70% of hip fractures in the US, performance of fracture risk assessment tools in this population is uncertain. Objective: To compare performance of the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX), Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator, and femoral neck bone mineral density (FNBMD) alone in 5-year hip fracture prediction. Design, Setting and Participants: Prognostic analysis of 3 prospective cohort studies including participants attending an index examination (1997 to 2016) at age 80 years or older. Data were analyzed from March 2023 to April 2024. Main Outcomes and Measures: Participants contacted every 4 or 6 months after index examination to ascertain incident hip fractures and vital status. Predicted 5-year hip fracture probabilities calculated using FRAX and Garvan models incorporating FNBMD and FNBMD alone. Model discrimination assessed by area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Model calibration assessed by comparing observed vs predicted hip fracture probabilities within predicted risk quintiles. Results: A total of 8890 participants were included, with a mean (SD) age at index examination of 82.6 (2.7) years; 4906 participants (55.2%) were women, 866 (9.7%) were Black, 7836 (88.1%) were White, and 188 (2.1%) were other races and ethnicities. During 5-year follow-up, 321 women (6.5%) and 123 men (3.1%) experienced a hip fracture; 818 women (16.7%) and 921 men (23.1%) died before hip fracture. Among women, AUC was 0.69 (95% CI, 0.67-0.72) for FRAX, 0.69 (95% CI, 0.66-0.72) for Garvan, and 0.72 (95% CI, 0.69-0.75) for FNBMD alone (FNBMD superior to FRAX, P = .01; and Garvan, P = .01). Among men, AUC was 0.71 (95% CI, 0.66-0.75) for FRAX, 0.76 (95% CI, 0.72-0.81) for Garvan, and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.72-0.81) for FNBMD alone (P < .001 Garvan and FNBMD alone superior to FRAX). Among both sexes, Garvan greatly overestimated hip fracture risk among individuals in upper quintiles of predicted risk, while FRAX modestly underestimated risk among those in intermediate quintiles of predicted risk. Conclusions and Relevance: In this prognostic study of adults aged 80 years and older, FRAX and Garvan tools incorporating FNBMD compared with FNBMD alone did not improve 5-year hip fracture discrimination. FRAX modestly underpredicted observed hip fracture probability in intermediate-risk individuals. Garvan markedly overpredicted observed hip fracture probability in high-risk individuals. Until better prediction tools are available, clinicians should prioritize consideration of hip BMD, life expectancy, and patient preferences in decision-making regarding drug treatment initiation for hip fracture prevention in late-life adults.

Performance of Fracture Risk Assessment Tools by Race and Ethnicity: A Systematic Review for the ASBMR Task Force on Clinical Algorithms for Fracture Risk.

The American Society of Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR) Professional Practice Committee charged an ASBMR Task Force on Clinical Algorithms for Fracture Risk to review the evidence on whether current approaches for differentiating fracture risk based on race and ethnicity are necessary and valid. To help address these charges, we performed a systematic literature review investigating performance of calculators for predicting incident fractures within and across race and ethnicity groups in middle-aged and older US adults. We included English-language, controlled or prospective cohort studies that enrolled US adults aged >40 years and reported tool performance predicting incident fractures within individual race and ethnicity groups for up to 10 years. From 4838 identified references, six reports met eligibility criteria, all in women. Just three, all from one study, included results in non-white individuals. In these three reports, non-white women experienced relatively few major osteoporotic fractures (MOFs), especially hip fractures, and risk thresholds for predicting fractures in non-white women were derived from risks in the overall, predominantly white study population. One report suggested the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) without bone mineral density (BMD) overestimated hip fracture similarly across race and ethnicity groups (black, Hispanic, American Indian, Asian, white) but overestimated MOF more in non-white than White women. However, these three reports were inconclusive regarding whether discrimination of FRAX or the Garvan calculator without BMD or of FRAX with BMD for MOF or hip fracture differed between white versus black women. This uncertainty was at least partly due to imprecise hip fracture estimates in black women. No reports examined whether ratios of observed to predicted hip fracture risks within each race or ethnicity group varied across levels of predicted hip fracture risk. © 2023 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR). This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

Life-space mobility and healthcare costs and utilization in older men.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the association of life-space score with subsequent healthcare costs and utilization. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study (Osteoporotic Fracture in Men [MrOS]). SETTING: Six U.S. sites. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 1555 community-dwelling men (mean age 79.3 years; 91.5% white, non-Hispanic) participating in the MrOS Year 7 (Y7) examination linked with their Medicare claims data. MEASUREMENTS: Life-space during the past month was assessed as 0 (daily restriction to one's bedroom) to 120 (daily trips outside one's town without assistance) and categorized (0-40, 41-60, 61-80, 81-100, 101-120). Total annualized direct healthcare costs and utilization were ascertained during 36 months after the Y7 examination. RESULTS: Mean total annualized costs (2020 U.S. dollars) steadily increased across category of life-space score, from $7954 (standard deviation [SD] 16,576) among men with life-space scores of 101-120 to $26,430 (SD 28,433) among men with life-space scores of 0-40 (p < 0.001). After adjustment for demographics, men with a life-space score of 0-40 versus men with a life-space score of 101-120 had greater mean total costs (cost ratio [CR] = 2.52; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.84-3.45) and greater risk of subsequent hospitalization (odds ratio [OR] 4.72, 95% CI 2.61-8.53) and skilled nursing facility (SNF) stay (OR 7.32, 95% CI 3.65-14.66). Life-space score was no longer significantly associated with total healthcare costs (CR for 0-40 vs 101-120 1.29; 95% CI 0.91-1.84) and hospitalization (OR 1.76, 95% CI 0.89-3.51) after simultaneous consideration of demographics, medical factors, self-reported health and function, and the frailty phenotype; the association of life-space with SNF stay remained significant (OR 2.86, 95% CI 1.26-6.49). CONCLUSION: Our results highlight the importance of function and mobility in predicting future healthcare costs and suggest the simple and convenient life-space score may in part capture risks from major geriatric domains and improve identification of older, community-dwelling men likely to require costly care.

Associations of recent weight loss with health care costs and utilization among older women.

The association of weight loss with health care costs among older women is uncertain. Our study aim was to examine the association of objectively measured weight change with subsequent total health care (THC) costs and other health care utilization among older women. Our study population included 2,083 women (mean age 80.2 years) enrolled in the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures and U.S. Medicare Fee for Service. Weight loss and gain were defined, respectively, as ≥5% decrease and ≥5% increase in body weight, and weight maintenance as <5% change in body weight over a period of 4.5 years. THC costs, outpatient costs, hospitalizations, and skilled nursing facility [SNF] utilization were estimated from Medicare claims for 1 year after the period during which weight change was measured. The associations of weight change with THC and outpatient costs were estimated using generalized linear models with gamma variance and log link functions, and with hospitalizations and SNF utilization using logistic models. Adjusted for age and current body mass index (BMI), weight loss compared with weight maintenance was associated with a 35% increase in THC costs ($2148 [95% CI, 745 to 3552], 2014 U.S. dollars), a 15% increase in outpatient costs ($329 [95% C.I. -1 to 660]), and odds ratios of 1.42 (95% CI, 1.14 to 1.76) for ≥1 hospital stay and 1.45 (95% CI, 1.03 to 2.03) for ≥1 SNF stay. These associations did not vary by BMI category. After additional adjustment for multi-morbidity and functional status, associations of weight loss with all four outcomes were no longer significant. In conclusion, ≥5% weight loss among older women is not associated with increased THC and outpatient costs, hospitalization, and SNF utilization, irrespective of BMI category after accounting for multi-morbidity and impaired functional status that accompany weight loss.

The Ability of a Single BMD and Fracture History Assessment to Predict Fracture Over 25 Years in Postmenopausal Women: The Study of Osteoporotic Fractures.

The ability of bone mineral density (BMD) and other risk factors to predict fracture risk is well-established for as long as 5 to 10 years. However, their value to predict risk over a longer term has not been directly studied. We investigated whether a single assessment of femoral neck BMD and fracture history can predict fracture risk over 20 to 25 years. We used data from the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF) that assessed BMD and risk factors in 7959 women age ≥67 (mean = 73.4) in 1988-1990. Follow-up for fractures continued for 25 years for hip fracture, and for 20 years for any nonvertebral fracture. Using age-adjusted proportional hazards models, we analyzed the relationships between a single baseline assessment of femoral neck BMD, fracture history and age, and 20-25-year fracture incidence. The 25-year cumulative incidence of hip fracture was 17.9%; 20-year incidence of any nonvertebral fracture was 46.2%. The 25-year hip fracture incidence was highest in those ≥80 years old (22.6%) compared to 13.9% in women aged <70 years. A single femoral neck BMD measurement strongly predicted long-term hip fracture risk to 25 years: 29.6% risk in the lowest BMD quartile versus 7.6% with the highest relative hazard (RH) = 4.9 (95% CI, 4.1 to 6.0). Femoral neck BMD predicted hip fracture with little degradation over time from RH/SD = 2.6 (2.2 to 3.0) for 0 to 5 years to RH/SD = 1.8 (1.4 to 2.4) for 20 to 25 years. Lifetime hip fracture risk was similar (∼30%) regardless of age from 67 to >80 years. History of hip fracture predicted hip fractures only slightly better than history of nonvertebral fracture (RH = 1.6 [95% CI, 1.1 to 2.2] versus RH = 1.4 [95% CI, 1.2 to 1.5], respectively). Fracture history remained strongly predictive up to 25 years. We conclude that a single BMD and fracture history assessment can predict fracture risk over 20 to 25 years. Long-term risk of hip fracture remains extremely high in the oldest age groups, supporting risk assessment and consideration of treatment even in the oldest, highest-risk women.© 2017 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Hip fracture and increased short-term but not long-term mortality in healthy older women.

BACKGROUND: Fractures have been associated with subsequent increases in mortality, but it is unknown how long that increase persists. METHODS: A total of 5580 women from a large community-based, multicenter US prospective cohort of 9704 (Study of Osteoporotic Fractures) were observed prospectively for almost 20 years. We age-matched 1116 hip fracture cases with 4 control participants (n = 4464). To examine the effect of health status, we examined a healthy older subset (n = 960) 80 years or older who attended the 10-year follow-up examination and reported good or excellent health. Incident hip fractures were adjudicated from radiology reports by study physicians. Death was confirmed by death certificates. RESULTS: Hip fracture cases had 2-fold increased mortality in the year after fracture compared with controls (16.9% vs 8.4%; multivariable adjusted odds ratio [OR], 2.4; 95% CI, 1.9-3.1]. When examined by age and health status, short-term mortality was increased in those aged 65 to 69 years (16.3% vs 3.7%; OR, 5.0; 95% CI, 2.6-9.5), 70 to 79 years (16.5% vs 8.9%; OR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.8-3.3), and only in those 80 years or older with good or excellent health (15.1% vs 7.2%; multivariable adjusted OR, 2.8; 95% CI, 1.5-5.2). After the first year, survival of hip fracture cases and controls was similar except in those aged 65 to 69 years, who continued to have increased mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Short-term mortality is increased after hip fracture in women aged 65 to 79 years and in exceptionally healthy women 80 years or older. Women 70 years or older return to previous risk levels after a year. Interventions are needed to decrease mortality in the year after hip fracture, when mortality risk is highest.

Finasteride for benign prostatic hyperplasia.

BACKGROUND: Benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH), a non-malignant enlargement of the prostate in aging men, can cause bothersome urinary symptoms (intermittency, weak stream, straining, urgency, frequency, incomplete emptying). Finasteride, a five-alpha reductase inhibitor (5ARI), blocks the conversion of testosterone to dihydrotestosterone, reduces prostate size, and is commonly used to treat symptoms associated with BPH. OBJECTIVES: To compare the clinical effectiveness and harms of finasteride versus placebo and active controls in the treatment of lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS). SEARCH STRATEGY: We searched The Cochrane Library (which includes CDSR (Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews), DARE (Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects), HTA (Heath Technology Assessments), and CENTRAL (Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and which includes EMBASE and MEDLINE), LILACS (Latin American and Caribbean Center on Health Sciences Information) and Google Scholar for randomized, controlled trials (RCTs). We also handsearched systematic reviews, references, and clinical-practice guidelines. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomized trials in the English language with placebo and/or active arms with a duration of at least 6 months. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: JT extracted the data, which included patient characteristics, outcomes, and harms. Our primary outcome was change in a validated, urinary symptom-scale score, such as the AUA/IPSS. A clinically meaningful change was defined as 4 points. We also categorized outcomes by trial lengths of ≤ 1 year (short term) and > 1 year (long term). MAIN RESULTS: Finasteride consistently improved urinary symptom scores more than placebo in trials of > 1 year duration, and significantly lowered the risk of BPH progression (acute urinary retention, risk of surgical intervention, ≥ 4 point increase in the AUASI/IPSS). In comparison to alpha-blocker monotherapy, finasteride was less effective than either doxazosin or terazosin, but equally effective compared to tamsulosin. Both doxazosin and terazosin were significantly more likely than finasteride to improve peak urine flow and nocturia, versus finasteride. Versus tamsulosin, peak urine flow and QoL improved equally well versus finasteride. However, finasteride was associated with a lower risk of surgical intervention compared to doxazosin, but not to terazosin, while finasteride and doxazosin were no different for risk of acute urinary retention. Two small trials reported no difference in urinary symptom scores between finasteride and tamsulosin. Finasteride + doxazosin and doxazosin monotherapy improved urinary symptoms equally well (≥ 4 point improvement).For finasteride, there was an increased risk of ejaculation disorder, impotence, and lowered libido, versus placebo. Versus doxazosin, finasteride had a lower risk of asthenia, dizziness, and postural hypotension, and versus terazosin, finasteride had a significant, lower risk of asthenia, dizziness, and postural hypotension. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Finasteride improves long-term urinary symptoms versus placebo, but is less effective than doxazosin. Long-term combination therapy with alpha blockers (doxazosin, terazosin) improves symptoms significantly better than finasteride monotherapy. Finasteride + doxazosin improves symptoms equally - and clinically - to doxazosin alone. In comparison to doxazosin, finasteride + doxazosin appears to improve urinary symptoms only in men with medium (25 to < 40 mL) or large prostates (≥ 40 mL), but not in men with small prostates (25 mL).Comparing short to long-term therapy, finasteride does not improve symptoms significantly better than placebo at the short term, but in the long term it does, although the magnitude of differences was very small (from < 1.0 point to 2.2 points). Doxazosin improves symptoms better than finasteride both short and long term, with the magnitude of differences ∼2.0 points and 1.0 point, respectively. Finasteride + doxazosin improves scores versus finasteride alone at both short and long term, with mean differences ∼2.0 points for both time points. Finasteride + doxazosin versus doxazosin improves scores equally for short and long term.Drug-related adverse effects for finasteride are rare; nevertheless, men taking finasteride are at increased risk for impotence, erectile dysfunction, decreased libido, and ejaculation disorder, versus placebo. Versus doxazosin, which has higher rates of dizziness, postural hypotension, and asthenia, men taking finasteride are at increased risk for impotence, erectile dysfunction, decreased libido, and ejaculation disorder. Finasteride significantly reduces asthenia, postural hypotension, and dizziness versus terazosin. Finasteride significantly lowers the risk of asthenia, dizziness, ejaculation disorder, and postural hypotension, versus finasteride + terazosin.

Cost-effectiveness of bone densitometry followed by treatment of osteoporosis in older men.

CONTEXT: Osteoporotic fractures are common among elderly men. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate among older men the cost-effectiveness of bone densitometry followed by 5 years of oral bisphosphonate therapy to prevent fractures for those found to have osteoporosis (femoral neck T score < or =-2.5), compared with no intervention. DESIGN, SETTING, AND POPULATION: Computer Markov microsimulation model using a societal perspective and a lifetime horizon. Simulations were performed for hypothetical cohorts of white men aged 65, 70, 75, 80, or 85 years, with or without prior clinical fracture. Data sources for model parameters included the Rochester Epidemiology Project for fracture costs and population-based age-specific fracture rates; the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) study and published meta-analyses for the associations among prior fractures, bone density, and incident fractures; and published studies of fracture disutility. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Costs per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained for the densitometry and follow-up treatment strategy compared with no intervention, calculated from lifetime costs and accumulated QALYs for each strategy. RESULTS: Lifetime costs per QALY gained for the densitometry and follow-up treatment strategy were less than $50,000 for men aged 65 years or older with a prior clinical fracture and for men aged 80 years or older without a prior fracture. These results were most sensitive to oral bisphosphonate cost and fracture reduction efficacy, the strength of association between bone mineral density and fractures, fracture rates and disutility, and medication adherence. CONCLUSIONS: Bone densitometry followed by bisphosphonate therapy for those with osteoporosis may be cost-effective for men aged 65 years or older with a self-reported prior clinical fracture and for men aged 80 to 85 years with no prior fracture. This strategy may also be cost-effective for men as young as 70 years without a prior clinical fracture if oral bisphosphonate costs are less than $500 per year or if the societal willingness to pay per QALY gained is $100,000.

Health-related quality of life predicts future health care utilization and mortality in veterans with self-reported physician-diagnosed arthritis: the veterans arthritis quality of life study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether health-related quality of life (HRQOL) measures predict health care utilization and mortality in a cohort of veterans with self-reported physician-diagnosed arthritis. METHODS: A cohort of veterans from the Upper Midwest Veterans Integrated Service Network (VISN) was mailed a self-administered questionnaire that was composed of the SF-36V (modified from SF-36 for use in veterans) and questions regarding demographics, current smoking status, limitation of activities of daily living (ADLs), and preexisting physician-diagnosed medical conditions, including arthritis. Within subjects reporting physician-diagnosed arthritis, we analyzed the associations between the SF-36V component summary scales (physical and mental component summary, PCS and MCS, respectively) and the occurrence of any hospitalization, number of hospitalizations, number of outpatient visits, and mortality, for the year after survey administration, using multivariable regression analyses. RESULTS: Of 34,440 survey responders who answered a question regarding arthritis, 18,464 (58%) subjects reported physician-diagnosed arthritis. Arthritic patients in the lowest tertile of PCS scores had significantly higher odds of any hospitalization (Odds ratio (OR) 1.49, 95% confidence interval (CI) [1.25-1.76]) and mortality (OR 1.69, 95% CI [1.18-2.42]), and a significantly higher number of hospitalizations/year (Rate ratio (RR) 1.09, 95% CI [1.05-1.13]) and outpatient visits/year (RR 1.07, 95% CI [1.03-1.11]). Arthritic patients in the lowest tertile of MCS scores had significantly higher odds of any hospitalization (OR 1.20, 95% CI [1.02-1.41]), mortality (OR 2.14, 95% CI [1.56-2.94]), and a significantly higher number of hospitalizations/year (RR 1.05, 95% CI [1.02-1.09]) and outpatient visits/year (RR 1.07, 95% CI [1.03-1.11]). CONCLUSIONS: HRQOL, as assessed by the SF-36V, predicts future inpatient and outpatient health care utilization and mortality in veterans with self-report of physician-diagnosed arthritis.