Cost, market, and policy constraints on mitigating climate change through afforestation in China.

Afforestation is a promising nature-based climate solution for mitigating climate change, but it is subject to a complex web of biophysical, cost-benefit, market, and policy processes. Although its biophysical feasibility has been established, the cost, market, and policy constraints that affect climate change mitigation through afforestation are still unclear. Here, we estimate such cost, market, and policy constraints on the basis of biophysical feasibility. Our findings reveal that implementation costs are a more relevant constraint than opportunity costs on mitigating climate change through afforestation. The China Certified Emission Reduction market currently provides only a 0.308 % incentive for climate change mitigation through afforestation, due to market access constraints. The current market prices of China Certified Emission Reduction, China Carbon Emissions Trading Exchange, and Nature Based Carbon Offset in Voluntary Carbon Market constrain 88.15 %, 87.95 %, and 85.75 % of CO2 removal actions through afforestation, compared to the carbon price scenario (US$62.97 tCO2-1) of the EU Emissions Trading System. Moreover, land policy under the scenarios of prohibiting conversion of cultivated land to forest and forest restoration in degraded areas exhibit 8.87-29.59 % and 65.16-74.10 % constraints, respectively, on mitigating climate change through afforestation compared to land-use freedom conversion scenarios from 2020 to 2060. Thus, enhancing the incentive price of CO2 removal, addressing the market access barrier, strengthening cooperation between global carbon markets, and exploring carbon-neutral and food multi-oriented land policies can be valuable sources of mitigation efforts over the next 40 years.

Social, economic and environmental vulnerability: The case of wheat farmers in Northeast Iran.

This research used a qualitative and quantitative approach to classify factors influencing wheat farmers' social, economic, and environmental vulnerability in Khorasan Razavi province, Iran, from the perspective of elite wheat farmers and agricultural specialists, and then to establish some recommendations based on the results. To achieve the study objectives, in the qualitative part, in-depth interviews were held with 20 agricultural specialists in the field of wheat cultivation, and 9 elite wheat farmers were selected using a purposive sampling method. Using stratified random sampling, 391 wheat farmers participated in the quantitative part. From the agricultural specialists' viewpoint, the prime factor affecting vulnerability was the social factor "farm management". The second factor was the environmental vulnerability factor "Sunn pest and heat", and the final factor was the economic vulnerability factor "the costs of fertilizer, equipment, and machines and their maintenance". In contrast, from the viewpoint of elite wheat farmers, the dominant factor affecting vulnerability was the economic factor "the costs of equipment, fertilizer, and machines and their maintenance". Regarding social vulnerability, "Governmental support" was stressed and the most important environmental vulnerability factor was "Sunn pest and cold". The results of confirmatory factor analysis were more in line with the views of agricultural specialists. According to the results, it is suggested that the agricultural extension system provides timely training to farmers in order to properly manage farms in times of crisis. The government should also compensate part of the costs of social and economic damage to farmers by providing free or low-interest loans.

Participatory assessment of soil erosion severity and performance of mitigation measures using stakeholder workshops in Koga catchment, Ethiopia.

Farmers possess a wealth of knowledge regarding soil erosion and soil and water conservation (SWC), and there is a great demand to access it. However, there has been little effort to systematically document farmers' experiences and perceptions of SWC measures. Sustainable Land Management (SLM) has largely evolved through local traditional practices rather than adoption based on scientific evidence. This research aimed to assess soil erosion and performance of different SWC measures from the farmers' perspective by documenting their perceptions and experiences in Koga catchment, Ethiopia. To this aim, workshops were organised in three sub-catchments differing in slopes and SWC measures. Workshops included group discussions and field monitoring of erosion indicators and systematically describing the status of soil erosion, soil fertility and yield to assess the performance of SWC measures. Results show that farmers are aware of the harmful effects of ongoing soil erosion and of the impacts of mitigation measures on their farms. Sheet erosion was found to be the most widespread form of erosion while rill damage was critical on plots cultivated to cereals on steep slopes. The average rill erosion rates were 24.2 and 47.3 t/ha/y in treated and untreated farmlands, respectively. SWC reduced rill erosion on average by more than 48%. However, the impacts of SWC measures varied significantly between sub-watersheds, and farmers believed that SWC measures did not prevent erosion completely. Comparatively, graded stone-faced soil bunds revealed maximum desired impacts and were most appreciated by farmers, whereas level bunds caused water logging. Most traditional ditches were highly graded and begun incising and affected production of cereals. Despite the semi-quantitative nature of the methodology, using farmers' perceptions and experiences to document land degradation and the impacts of SWC measures is crucial as they are the daily users of the land and therefore directly affecting the success or failure of SWC measures.

Targeting the impact of agri-environmental policy - Future scenarios in two less favoured areas in Portugal.

Targeting agri-environmental measures (AEM) improves their effectiveness in the delivery of public goods, provided the necessary coordination with other incentives. In less favoured areas (LFA) measures focusing on the conservation of extensive farming contribute to sustainable land management in these areas. In this paper we investigate the implementation of a possible AEM supporting the improvement of permanent pastures coordinated with the extensive livestock and single farm payments actually in place. Through applying a spatially-explicit mixed integer optimisation model we simulate future land use scenarios for two less favoured areas in Portugal (Centro and Alentejo) considering two policy scenarios: a 'targeted AEM', and a 'non-targeted AEM'. We then compare the results with a 'basic policy' option (reflecting a situation without AEM). This is done with regard to landscape-scale effects on the reduction of fire hazard and erosion risk, as well as effects on farm income. The results show that an AEM for permanent pastures would be more cost-effective for erosion and fire hazard mitigation if implemented within a spatially targeted framework. However when cost-effectiveness is assessed with other indicators (e.g. net farm income and share of grazing livestock) 'non-targeted AEM' implementation delivers the best outcome in Alentejo. In Centro the implementation of an AEM involves important losses of income compared to the 'basic policy'. 'Targeted AEM' tends to favour farms in very marginal conditions, i.e. targeting is demonstrated to perform best in landscapes where spatial heterogeneity is higher. The results also show the risk of farm abandonment in the two studied less favoured areas: in all three scenarios more than 30% of arable land is deemed to be abandoned.

Olive production systems on sloping land: prospects and scenarios.

The ultimate objective of the EU Olivero project was to improve the quality of life of the rural population and to assure the sustainable use of the natural resources of land and water in the sloping and mountainous olive production systems (SMOPS) areas in Southern Europe. One specific objective was to develop, with end-users, alternative future scenarios for olive orchards in the five Olivero target areas. This paper discusses the development of these scenarios, and their socio-economic and environmental effects. After presenting the different production systems (SMOPS) and their strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats, a general overview is given of the medium- and long-term prospects. These have been validated by experts from the olive sector and foresee changes towards abandonment, intensification and organic production. On balance, the changes could lead to lower production of some target areas in future. An analysis of major external factors affecting the future development of SMOPS indicates there will be labour shortages and increased wage rates, reduced subsidies and constant or rising olive oil prices. On the basis of these assumptions, four future scenarios are developed for the five target areas, with the help of a Linear Programming simulation model. The results are presented for two target areas. For the Trás-os-Montes target area in Portugal, three of the four tested scenarios point to a high level of abandonment, while in the most positive scenario the areas under semi-intensive low input and organic SMOPS increase. In the Granada and Jaen target area in Spain, all scenarios hint at intensification, and only the orchards on the steepest slopes are likely to be abandoned. The direction and extent of environmental effects (erosion, fire risk, pollution, water use and biodiversity) differ per scenario, as do the extent of cross-compliance and agri-environmental measures.

Traditional olive orchards on sloping land: sustainability or abandonment?

Traditional olive orchards account for a large share of the area under olives in the EU, particularly in marginal areas, like those analysed in the OLIVERO project. In general, traditional olive growing can be described as a low-intensity production system, associated with old (sometimes very old) trees, grown at a low density, giving small yields and receiving low inputs of labour and materials. Though such systems are environmentally sustainable, their economic viability has become an issue, since EU policies favour more intensive and competitive systems. Orchards that have not been intensified seem to be threatened by the recent reform of the EU olive and olive oil policy, as income support has been decoupled from production. The main purpose of this paper is to identify the present constraints to traditional olive growing, and to recommend some private and public interventions to prevent its abandonment. During the OLIVERO project, traditional olive production systems were identified and described in five target areas (Trás-os-Montes--Portugal, Cordoba and Granada/Jaen--Spain, Basilicata/Salerno--Italy, and West Crete--Greece). The causes and consequences of abandonment are discussed, based on the analysis of the costs and returns, which revealed that these systems are barely economically sustainable. Their viability is only assured if reduced opportunity costs for family labour are accepted, and the olive growing is part-time. Based on these results, recommendations are made to prevent the abandonment of traditional olive growing and to preserve its environmental benefits.