Predicted effects of the introduction of long-acting injectable cabotegravir pre-exposure prophylaxis in sub-Saharan Africa: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Long-acting injectable cabotegravir pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is recommended by WHO as an additional option for HIV prevention in sub-Saharan Africa, but there is concern that its introduction could lead to an increase in integrase-inhibitor resistance undermining treatment programmes that rely on dolutegravir. We aimed to project the health benefits and risks of cabotegravir-PrEP introduction in settings in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: With HIV Synthesis, an individual-based HIV model, we simulated 1000 setting-scenarios reflecting both variability and uncertainty about HIV epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa and compared outcomes for each with and without cabotegravir-PrEP introduction. PrEP use is assumed to be risk-informed and to be used only in 3-month periods (the time step for the model) when having condomless sex. We consider three groups at risk of integrase-inhibitor resistance emergence: people who start cabotegravir-PrEP after (unknowingly) being infected with HIV, those who seroconvert while on PrEP, and those with HIV who have residual cabotegravir drugs concentrations during the early tail period after recently stopping PrEP. We projected the outcomes of policies of cabotegravir-PrEP introduction and of no introduction in 2022 across 50 years. In 50% of setting-scenarios we considered that more sensitive nucleic-acid-based HIV diagnostic testing (NAT), rather than regular antibody-based HIV rapid testing, might be used to reduce resistance risk. For cost-effectiveness analysis we assumed in our base case a cost of cabotegravir-PrEP drug to be similar to oral PrEP, resulting in a total annual cost of USD$144 per year ($114 per year and $264 per year considered in sensitivity analyses), a cost-effectiveness threshold of $500 per disability-adjusted life years averted, and a discount rate of 3% per year. FINDINGS: Reflecting our assumptions on the appeal of cabotegravir-PrEP, its introduction is predicted to lead to a substantial increase in PrEP use with approximately 2·6% of the adult population (and 46% of those with a current indication for PrEP) receiving PrEP compared with 1·5% (28%) without cabotegravir-PrEP introduction across 20 years. As a result, HIV incidence is expected to be lower by 29% (90% range across setting-scenarios 6-52%) across the same period compared with no introduction of cabotegravir-PrEP. In people initiating antiretroviral therapy, the proportion with integrase-inhibitor resistance after 20 years is projected to be 1·7% (0-6·4%) without cabotegravir-PrEP introduction but 13·1% (4·1-30·9%) with. Cabotegravir-PrEP introduction is predicted to lower the proportion of all people on antiretroviral therapy with viral loads less than 1000 copies per mL by 0·9% (-2·5% to 0·3%) at 20 years. For an adult population of 10 million an overall decrease in number of AIDS deaths of about 4540 per year (-13 000 to -300) across 50 years is predicted, with little discernible benefit with NAT when compared with standard antibody-based rapid testing. AIDS deaths are predicted to be averted with cabotegravir-PrEP introduction in 99% of setting-scenarios. Across the 50-year time horizon, overall HIV programme costs are predicted to be similar regardless of whether cabotegravir-PrEP is introduced (total mean discounted annual HIV programme costs per year across 50 years is $151·3 million vs $150·7 million), assuming the use of standard antibody testing. With antibody-based rapid HIV testing, the introduction of cabotegravir-PrEP is predicted to be cost-effective under an assumed threshold of $500 per disability-adjusted life year averted in 82% of setting-scenarios at the cost of $144 per year, in 52% at $264, and in 87% at $114. INTERPRETATION: Despite leading to increases in integrase-inhibitor drug resistance, cabotegravir-PrEP introduction is likely to reduce AIDS deaths in addition to HIV incidence. Long-acting cabotegravir-PrEP is predicted to be cost-effective if delivered at similar cost to oral PrEP with antibody-based rapid HIV testing. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases of the National Institutes of Health.

The LEAP Process: Streamlining the Development of Long-Acting Products and Formulations for Infectious Diseases.

Developing long-acting products and formulations for infectious diseases is a nontrivial undertaking that is frequently classified as high risk and low reward by the pharmaceutical industry. The Long-Acting/Extended Release Antiretroviral Research Resource Program (LEAP) was founded in 2015 with the support of the National Institutes of Health to encourage, promote, and accelerate the development of such products. Assessment methodology for any new proposal brought to this group is part of a framework-the LEAP Process-that includes a landscape analysis of what is currently available in the public domain. This is followed by in silico modeling and simulation offered as a service to the relevant scientific community. A variety of preclinical and clinical outcome metrics are applied to each new agent as part of a continuous feedback loop to improve product characteristics. This allows us to catalog knowledge gaps and barriers that can be addressed by engaged stakeholders. Results are communicated in scientific articles, reviews, and position papers. This undertaking serves to de-risk discovery, development, and implementation by bridging the gaps between academic, regulatory, and industrial investigators, and by engaging those in the community who will be the eventual users of these medicines. The LEAP Process has supported formulations now approved for human immunodeficiency virus, as well as products in clinical and preclinical development for tuberculosis and hepatitis viruses B and C.

The potential role of long-acting injectable cabotegravir-rilpivirine in the treatment of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa: a modelling analysis.

BACKGROUND: The use of a combination of the integrase inhibitor, cabotegravir, and the non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor, rilpivirine, in a long-acting injectable form is being considered as an antiretroviral treatment option for people with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. We aimed to model the effects of injectable cabotegravir-rilpivirine to help to inform its potential effectiveness and cost-effectiveness under different possible policies for its introduction. METHODS: We used an existing individual-based model of HIV to predict the effects of introducing monthly injections of cabotegravir-rilpivirine for people with HIV in low-income settings in sub-Saharan Africa. We evaluated policies in the context of 1000 setting scenarios that reflected characteristics of HIV epidemics and programmes in sub-Saharan Africa. We compared three policies for introduction of injectable cabotegravir-rilpivirine with continued use of dolutegravir-based oral regimens for: all individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART); individuals with a recently measured viral load of more than 1000 copies per mL (signifying poor adherence to oral drugs, and often associated with drug resistance); and individuals with a recently measured viral load of less than 1000 copies per mL (a group with a lower prevalence of pre-existing drug resistance). We also did cost-effectiveness analysis, taking a health system perspective over a 10 year period, with 3% discounting of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and costs. A cost-effectiveness threshold of US$500 per DALY averted was used to establish if a policy was cost-effective. FINDINGS: In our model, all policies involving the introduction of injectable cabotegravir-rilpivirine were predicted to lead to an increased proportion of people with HIV on ART, increased viral load suppression, and decreased AIDS-related mortality, with lesser benefits in people with a recently measured viral load of less than 1000 copies per mL. Its introduction is also predicted to lead to increases in resistance to integrase inhibitors and non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors if introduced in all people with HIV on ART or in those with a recently measured viral load of less than 1000 copies per mL, but to a lesser extent if introduced in people with more than 1000 copies per mL due to concentration of its use in people less adherent to oral therapy. Consistent with the effect on AIDS-related mortality, all approaches to the introduction of injectable cabotegravir-rilpivirine are predicted to avert DALYs. Assuming a cost of $120 per person per year, use of this regimen in people with a recently measured viral load of more than 1000 copies per mL was borderline cost-effective (median cost per DALY averted across setting scenarios $404). The other approaches considered for its use are unlikely to be cost-effective unless the cost per year of injectable cabotegravir-rilpivirine is considerably reduced. INTERPRETATION: Our modelling suggests that injectable cabotegravir-rilpivirine offers potential benefits; however, to be a cost-effective option, its introduction might need to be carefully targeted to individuals with HIV who might otherwise have suboptimal adherence to ART. As data accumulate from trials and implementation studies, such findings can be incorporated into the model to better inform on the full consequences of policy alternatives. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, including through the HIV Modelling Consortium (OPP1191655).

The transition to dolutegravir and other new antiretrovirals in low-income and middle-income countries: what are the issues?

: There are currently approximately 16 million people taking NNRTI-based first-line treatment in low-income and middle-income countries. Most of these patients are using the combination of tenofovir (TDF), lamivudine (3TC) and efavirenz (EFV). The integrase inhibitor dolutegravir (DTG) has shown an improved safety profile compared with EFV in randomized studies. DTG also has a high barrier to development of drug resistance. New co-formulated tablets with TDF/3TC/DTG are being introduced into LMICs, for a median price of $75 per person-year. The prodrug of TDF, tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) is cheaper to manufacture than TDF. A combined pill with TAF/3TC/DTG is also being launched in LMICs, at a similar low price. However, the clinical development programmes for DTG and TAF did not include extensive analysis of several key populations: pregnant women, people with HIV-tuberculosis (TB) coinfection taking rifampicin-based treatment, and treatment-naive or pretreated patients with NRTI drug resistance. An observational study in Botswana has shown an increased risk of neural tube defects when dolutegravir is used in early pregnancy. In LMICs, only 50% of patients have access to regular viral load testing, and genotypic resistance testing is rarely performed. There is currently no clinical data to support switching patients from TDF/3TC/EFV directly to TDF/3TC/DTG if their viral load is either detectable or unknown. New clinical trials and observational studies will be needed to better understand the consequences of this switch of treatment in LMICs. Clinical trials of new antiretrovirals in key populations should be conducted earlier in their development. This will ensure that new treatments can be introduced into LMICs soon after their launch in high-income countries.

Simplification of antiretroviral therapy: a necessary step in the public health response to HIV/AIDS in resource-limited settings.

The global scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) over the past decade represents one of the great public health and human rights achievements of recent times. Moving from an individualized treatment approach to a simplified and standardized public health approach has been critical to ART scale-up, simplifying both prescribing practices and supply chain management. In terms of the latter, the risk of stock-outs can be reduced and simplified prescribing practices support task shifting of care to nursing and other non-physician clinicians; this strategy is critical to increase access to ART care in settings where physicians are limited in number. In order to support such simplification, successive World Health Organization guidelines for ART in resource-limited settings have aimed to reduce the number of recommended options for first-line ART in such settings. Future drug and regimen choices for resource-limited settings will likely be guided by the same principles that have led to the recommendation of a single preferred regimen and will favour drugs that have the following characteristics: minimal risk of failure, efficacy and tolerability, robustness and forgiveness, no overlapping resistance in treatment sequencing, convenience, affordability, and compatibility with anti-TB and anti-hepatitis treatments.

Optimising the manufacture, formulation, and dose of antiretroviral drugs for more cost-efficient delivery in resource-limited settings: a consensus statement.

It is expected that funding limitations for worldwide HIV treatment and prevention in resource-limited settings will continue, and, because the need for treatment scale-up is urgent, the emphasis on value for money has become an increasing priority. The Conference on Antiretroviral Drug Optimization--a collaborative project between the Clinton Health Access Initiative, the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation--brought together process chemists, clinical pharmacologists, pharmaceutical scientists, physicians, pharmacists, and regulatory specialists to explore strategies for the reduction of antiretroviral drug costs. The antiretroviral drugs discussed were prioritised for consideration on the basis of their market impact, and the objectives of the conference were framed as discussion questions generated to guide scientific assessment of potential strategies. These strategies included modifications to the synthesis of the active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) and use of cheaper sources of raw materials in synthesis of these ingredients. Innovations in product formulation could improve bioavailability thus needing less API. For several antiretroviral drugs, studies show efficacy is maintained at doses below the approved dose (eg, efavirenz, lopinavir plus ritonavir, atazanavir, and darunavir). Optimising pharmacoenhancement and extending shelf life are additional strategies. The conference highlighted a range of interventions; optimum cost savings could be achieved through combining approaches.