Correction: A macroeconomic assessment of the impact of medical research expenditure: A case study of NIHR Biomedical Research Centres.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0214361.].

A macroeconomic assessment of the impact of medical research expenditure: A case study of NIHR Biomedical Research Centres.

Quantifying the value of investment in medical research can inform decision-making on the prioritisation of research programmes. Existing methodologies to estimate the rate of return of medical research are inappropriate for early-phase translational research due to censoring of health benefits and time lags. A strategy to improve the process of translational research for patient benefit has been initiated as part of the UK National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) investment in Biomedical Research Centres (BRCs) in England. By providing a platform for partnership between universities, NHS trusts and industry, successful BRCs should reduce time lags within translational research whilst also providing an impetus for local economic growth through industry collaboration. We present a novel contribution in the assessment of early-phase biomedical research by estimating the impact of the Oxford Biomedical Research Centre (OxBRC) on income and job creation following the initial NIHR investment. We adopt a macroeconomic assessment approach using Input-Output Analysis to estimate the value of medical research in terms of income and job creation during the early pathway towards translational biomedical research. Inter-industry linkages are assessed by building a model economy for the South East England region to estimate the return on investment of the OxBRC. The results from the input-output model estimate that the return on investment in biomedical research within the OxBRC is 46%. Each £1 invested in the OxBRC generates an additional £0.46 through income and job creation alone. Multiplicative employment effects following a marginal investment in the OxBRC of £98m during the period 2007-2017 result in an estimated additional 196 full time equivalent positions being created within the local economy on top of direct employment within OxBRC. Results from input-output analyses can be used to inform the prioritisation of biomedical research programmes when compared against national minimum thresholds of investment.

Increased Hospital-Based Physical Rehabilitation and Information Provision After Intensive Care Unit Discharge: The RECOVER Randomized Clinical Trial.

IMPORTANCE: Critical illness results in disability and reduced health-related quality of life (HRQOL), but the optimum timing and components of rehabilitation are uncertain. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effect of increasing physical and nutritional rehabilitation plus information delivered during the post-intensive care unit (ICU) acute hospital stay by dedicated rehabilitation assistants on subsequent mobility, HRQOL, and prevalent disabilities. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A parallel group, randomized clinical trial with blinded outcome assessment at 2 hospitals in Edinburgh, Scotland, of 240 patients discharged from the ICU between December 1, 2010, and January 31, 2013, who required at least 48 hours of mechanical ventilation. Analysis for the primary outcome and other 3-month outcomes was performed between June and August 2013; for the 6- and 12-month outcomes and the health economic evaluation, between March and April 2014. INTERVENTIONS: During the post-ICU hospital stay, both groups received physiotherapy and dietetic, occupational, and speech/language therapy, but patients in the intervention group received rehabilitation that typically increased the frequency of mobility and exercise therapies 2- to 3-fold, increased dietetic assessment and treatment, used individualized goal setting, and provided greater illness-specific information. Intervention group therapy was coordinated and delivered by a dedicated rehabilitation practitioner. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The Rivermead Mobility Index (RMI) (range 0-15) at 3 months; higher scores indicate greater mobility. Secondary outcomes included HRQOL, psychological outcomes, self-reported symptoms, patient experience, and cost-effectiveness during a 12-month follow-up (completed in February 2014). RESULTS: Median RMI at randomization was 3 (interquartile range [IQR], 1-6) and at 3 months was 13 (IQR, 10-14) for the intervention and usual care groups (mean difference, -0.2 [95% CI, -1.3 to 0.9; P = .71]). The HRQOL scores were unchanged by the intervention (mean difference in the Physical Component Summary score, -0.1 [95% CI, -3.3 to 3.1; P = .96]; and in the Mental Component Summary score, 0.2 [95% CI, -3.4 to 3.8; P = .91]). No differences were found for self-reported symptoms of fatigue, pain, appetite, joint stiffness, or breathlessness. Levels of anxiety, depression, and posttraumatic stress were similar, as were hand grip strength and the timed Up & Go test. No differences were found at the 6- or 12-month follow-up for any outcome measures. However, patients in the intervention group reported greater satisfaction with physiotherapy, nutritional support, coordination of care, and information provision. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Post-ICU hospital-based rehabilitation, including increased physical and nutritional therapy plus information provision, did not improve physical recovery or HRQOL, but improved patient satisfaction with many aspects of recovery. TRIAL REGISTRATION: isrctn.com Identifier: ISRCTN09412438.

Role of multidetector computed tomography in the diagnosis and management of patients attending the rapid access chest pain clinic, The Scottish computed tomography of the heart (SCOT-HEART) trial: study protocol for randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Rapid access chest pain clinics have facilitated the early diagnosis and treatment of patients with coronary heart disease and angina. Despite this important service provision, coronary heart disease continues to be under-diagnosed and many patients are left untreated and at risk. Recent advances in imaging technology have now led to the widespread use of noninvasive computed tomography, which can be used to measure coronary artery calcium scores and perform coronary angiography in one examination. However, this technology has not been robustly evaluated in its application to the clinic. METHODS/DESIGN: The SCOT-HEART study is an open parallel group prospective multicentre randomized controlled trial of 4,138 patients attending the rapid access chest pain clinic for evaluation of suspected cardiac chest pain. Following clinical consultation, participants will be approached and randomized 1:1 to receive standard care or standard care plus ≥64-multidetector computed tomography coronary angiography and coronary calcium score. Randomization will be conducted using a web-based system to ensure allocation concealment and will incorporate minimization. The primary endpoint of the study will be the proportion of patients diagnosed with angina pectoris secondary to coronary heart disease at 6 weeks. Secondary endpoints will include the assessment of subsequent symptoms, diagnosis, investigation and treatment. In addition, long-term health outcomes, safety endpoints, such as radiation dose, and health economic endpoints will be assessed. Assuming a clinic rate of 27.0% for the diagnosis of angina pectoris due to coronary heart disease, we will need to recruit 2,069 patients per group to detect an absolute increase of 4.0% in the rate of diagnosis at 80% power and a two-sided P value of 0.05. The SCOT-HEART study is currently recruiting participants and expects to report in 2014. DISCUSSION: This is the first study to look at the implementation of computed tomography in the patient care pathway that is outcome focused. This study will have major implications for the management of patients with cardiovascular disease. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01149590.

Prognostic value of a combined estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, Ki-67, and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 immunohistochemical score and comparison with the Genomic Health recurrence score in early breast cancer.

PURPOSE: We recently reported that the mRNA-based, 21-gene Genomic Health recurrence score (GHI-RS) provided additional prognostic information regarding distant recurrence beyond that obtained from classical clinicopathologic factors (age, nodal status, tumor size, grade, endocrine treatment) in women with early breast cancer, confirming earlier reports. The aim of this article is to determine how much of this information is contained in standard immunohistochemical (IHC) markers. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The primary cohort comprised 1,125 estrogen receptor-positive (ER-positive) patients from the Arimidex, Tamoxifen, Alone or in Combination (ATAC) trial who did not receive adjuvant chemotherapy, had the GHI-RS computed, and had adequate tissue for the four IHC measurements: ER, progesterone receptor (PgR), human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2), and Ki-67. Distant recurrence was the primary end point, and proportional hazards models were used with sample splitting to control for overfitting. A prognostic model that used classical variables and the four IHC markers (IHC4 score) was created and assessed in a separate cohort of 786 patients. RESULTS: All four IHC markers provided independent prognostic information in the presence of classical variables. In sample-splitting analyses, the information in the IHC4 score was found to be similar to that in the GHI-RS, and little additional prognostic value was seen in the combined use of both scores. The prognostic value of the IHC4 score was further validated in the second separate cohort. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that the amount of prognostic information contained in four widely performed IHC assays is similar to that in the GHI-RS. Additional studies are needed to determine the general applicability of the IHC4 score.

Assessment of letrozole and tamoxifen alone and in sequence for postmenopausal women with steroid hormone receptor-positive breast cancer: the BIG 1-98 randomised clinical trial at 8·1 years median follow-up.

BACKGROUND: Postmenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive early breast cancer have persistent, long-term risk of breast-cancer recurrence and death. Therefore, trials assessing endocrine therapies for this patient population need extended follow-up. We present an update of efficacy outcomes in the Breast International Group (BIG) 1-98 study at 8·1 years median follow-up. METHODS: BIG 1-98 is a randomised, phase 3, double-blind trial of postmenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive early breast cancer that compares 5 years of tamoxifen or letrozole monotherapy, or sequential treatment with 2 years of one of these drugs followed by 3 years of the other. Randomisation was done with permuted blocks, and stratified according to the two-arm or four-arm randomisation option, participating institution, and chemotherapy use. Patients, investigators, data managers, and medical reviewers were masked. The primary efficacy endpoint was disease-free survival (events were invasive breast cancer relapse, second primaries [contralateral breast and non-breast], or death without previous cancer event). Secondary endpoints were overall survival, distant recurrence-free interval (DRFI), and breast cancer-free interval (BCFI). The monotherapy comparison included patients randomly assigned to tamoxifen or letrozole for 5 years. In 2005, after a significant disease-free survival benefit was reported for letrozole as compared with tamoxifen, a protocol amendment facilitated the crossover to letrozole of patients who were still receiving tamoxifen alone; Cox models and Kaplan-Meier estimates with inverse probability of censoring weighting (IPCW) are used to account for selective crossover to letrozole of patients (n=619) in the tamoxifen arm. Comparison of sequential treatments to letrozole monotherapy included patients enrolled and randomly assigned to letrozole for 5 years, letrozole for 2 years followed by tamoxifen for 3 years, or tamoxifen for 2 years followed by letrozole for 3 years. Treatment has ended for all patients and detailed safety results for adverse events that occurred during the 5 years of treatment have been reported elsewhere. Follow-up is continuing for those enrolled in the four-arm option. BIG 1-98 is registered at clinicaltrials.govNCT00004205. FINDINGS: 8010 patients were included in the trial, with a median follow-up of 8·1 years (range 0-12·4). 2459 were randomly assigned to monotherapy with tamoxifen for 5 years and 2463 to monotherapy with letrozole for 5 years. In the four-arm option of the trial, 1546 were randomly assigned to letrozole for 5 years, 1548 to tamoxifen for 5 years, 1540 to letrozole for 2 years followed by tamoxifen for 3 years, and 1548 to tamoxifen for 2 years followed by letrozole for 3 years. At a median follow-up of 8·7 years from randomisation (range 0-12·4), letrozole monotherapy was significantly better than tamoxifen, whether by IPCW or intention-to-treat analysis (IPCW disease-free survival HR 0·82 [95% CI 0·74-0·92], overall survival HR 0·79 [0·69-0·90], DRFI HR 0·79 [0·68-0·92], BCFI HR 0·80 [0·70-0·92]; intention-to-treat disease-free survival HR 0·86 [0·78-0·96], overall survival HR 0·87 [0·77-0·999], DRFI HR 0·86 [0·74-0·998], BCFI HR 0·86 [0·76-0·98]). At a median follow-up of 8·0 years from randomisation (range 0-11·2) for the comparison of the sequential groups with letrozole monotherapy, there were no statistically significant differences in any of the four endpoints for either sequence. 8-year intention-to-treat estimates (each with SE ≤1·1%) for letrozole monotherapy, letrozole followed by tamoxifen, and tamoxifen followed by letrozole were 78·6%, 77·8%, 77·3% for disease-free survival; 87·5%, 87·7%, 85·9% for overall survival; 89·9%, 88·7%, 88·1% for DRFI; and 86·1%, 85·3%, 84·3% for BCFI. INTERPRETATION: For postmenopausal women with endocrine-responsive early breast cancer, a reduction in breast cancer recurrence and mortality is obtained by letrozole monotherapy when compared with tamoxifen montherapy. Sequential treatments involving tamoxifen and letrozole do not improve outcome compared with letrozole monotherapy, but might be useful strategies when considering an individual patient's risk of recurrence and treatment tolerability. FUNDING: Novartis, United States National Cancer Institute, International Breast Cancer Study Group.

Bypass versus Angioplasty in Severe Ischaemia of the Leg (BASIL) trial: Health-related quality of life outcomes, resource utilization, and cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: The Bypass versus Angioplasty in Severe Ischaemia of the Leg (BASIL) trial showed that survival in patients with severe lower limb ischemia (rest pain, tissue loss) who survived postintervention for >2 years after initial randomization to bypass surgery (BSX) vs balloon angioplasty (BAP) was associated with an improvement in subsequent amputation-free and overall survival of about 6 and 7 months, respectively. We now compare the effect on hospital costs and health-related quality of life (HRQOL) of the BSX-first and BAP-first revascularization strategies using a within-trial cost-effectiveness analysis. METHODS: We measured HRQOL using the Vascular Quality of Life Questionnaire (VascuQol), the Short Form 36 (SF-36), and the EuroQol (EQ-5D) health outcome measure up to 3 years from randomization. Hospital use was measured and valued using United Kingdom National Health Service hospital costs over 3 years. Analysis was by intention-to-treat. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were estimated for cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Uncertainty was assessed using nonparametric bootstrapping of incremental costs and incremental effects. RESULTS: No significant differences in HRQOL emerged when the two treatment strategies were compared. During the first year from randomization, the mean cost of inpatient hospital treatment in patients allocated to BSX ($34,378) was estimated to be about $8469 (95% confidence interval, $2,417-$14,522) greater than that of patients allocated to BAP ($25,909). Owing to increased costs subsequently incurred by the BAP patients, this difference decreased at the end of follow-up to $5521 ($45,322 for BSX vs $39,801 for BAP) and was no longer significant. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of a BSX-first strategy was $184,492 per QALY gained. The probability that BSX was more cost-effective than BAP was relatively low given the similar distributions in HRQOL, survival, and hospital costs. CONCLUSIONS: Adopting a BSX-first strategy for patients with severe limb ischemia does result in a modest increase in hospital costs, with a small positive but insignificant gain in disease-specific and generic HRQOL. However, the real-world choice between BSX-first and BAP-first revascularization strategies for severe limb ischemia due to infrainguinal disease cannot depend on costs alone and will require a more comprehensive consideration of individual patient preferences conditioned by expectations of survival and other health outcomes.

Reproducibility of visual assessment on mammographic density.

BACKGROUND: High mammographic density was an independent risk factor for breast cancer and has a higher associated risk than most other known risk factors. The reproducibility remains a major issue in assessment of breast parenchymal patterns. Misclassification of mammographic pattern can lead to significant underestimation of risk estimates. The purpose of this study was to assess the inter-rater and intra-rater reliability based on visual subjective mammographic density measurements. METHOD: Three density measures, Wolfe parenchymal pattern, Boyd classification scale, and a percentage of densities in total breast, were investigated. The study included 101 women who were participants of the International Breast Cancer Intervention Study I (IBIS I) for up to 7 years. Seven sets of mammograms were collected for each woman. Left breast mediolateral oblique films were digitized, and the scanned images were independently reviewed by two readers. These images were reassessed by one reader after a year. The agreements of measures were evaluated by Kappa statistics (Wolfe and Boyd scale) and intraclass correlation coefficient (percentage densities). RESULTS: For the inter-rater agreement, Weighted Kappa for Wolfe scale was 0.89 (P < 0.0001) and for Boyd scale was 0.84 (P < 0.0001). The intraclass correlation coefficient was 0.94 for percentage densities. For the intra-rater agreement, Weighted Kappa for Wolfe scale was 0.87 (P < 0.0001) and for Boyd scale was 0.86 (P < 0.0001). The intraclass correlation coefficient was 0.96 for percentage densities. CONCLUSION: The study concludes that both visual qualitative and quantitative measurements on mammographic density are highly reproducible in the breast cancer research studies if appropriate training is provided. The method is appropriate for risk assessment in a prevention trial.

Critical assessment of new risk factors for breast cancer: considerations for development of an improved risk prediction model.

The majority of candidates for breast cancer prevention have not accepted tamoxifen because of the perception of an unfavorable risk/benefit ratio and the acceptance of raloxifene remains to be determined. One means of improving this ratio is to identify women at very high risk of breast cancer. Family history, age, atypia in a benign biopsy, and reproductive factors are the main parameters currently used to determine risk. The most powerful risk factor, mammographic density, is not presently employed routinely. Other potentially important factors are plasma estrogen and androgen levels, bone density, weight gain, age of menopause, and fracture history, which are also not currently used in a comprehensive risk prediction model because of lack of prospective validation. The Breast Cancer Prevention Collaborative Group (BCPCG) met to critically examine and prioritize risk factors that might be selected for further testing by multivariate analysis using existing clinical material. The BCPCG reached a consensus that quantitative breast density, state of the art plasma estrogen and androgen measurements, history of fracture and height loss, BMI, and waist-hip ratio had sufficient priority for further testing. As a practical approach, these parameters could be added to the existing Tyrer-Cuzick model which encompasses factors included in both the Claus and Gail models. The BCPCG analyzed potentially available clinical material from previous prospective studies and determined that a large case/control study to evaluate these new factors might be feasible at this time.