Making cardiac surgery feasible in African countries: Experience from Namibia, Uganda, and Zambia.

OBJECTIVES: Few African countries have the resources to provide optimal cardiac surgery care. We explored needs at cardiac surgery centers in Namibia, Zambia, and Uganda. Our objectives were (1) to determine the key variables to be included in a cardiac surgery needs assessment tool and (2) to highlight the current initiatives, challenges and opportunities, and future goals for cardiac surgery in these 3 countries. METHODS: We conducted in-depth interviews with stakeholders in each country as well as surveys of surgical facilities. We synthesized our findings using a health systems conceptual framework. Each program's current capacity was compared with a standardized definition of "adequate" surgical capacity. On the basis of these findings, we developed a formal needs assessment questionnaire for use in resource-constrained countries. RESULTS: Although each of these countries has adequate facilities and surgical expertise, they still lack key support staff and material resources. Training and mentorship programs are being built, and the sites participate in cardiovascular research. Yet a comprehensive, multidisciplinary approach-including palliative care and rehabilitation-is lacking, and patients in remote areas are not being served. These observations allowed us to define the variables in our needs assessment tool. CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrates the great potential that exists to expand cardiac surgery in Africa and highlights some of the major resource bottlenecks that may hinder the scale-up of surgical programs. Our needs assessment questionnaire will assist ministries of health in building sustainable cardiac surgery programs using innovative Afro-centric solutions.

Development and Application of a Risk Prediction Model for In-Hospital Stroke After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement: A Report From The Society of Thoracic Surgeons/American College of Cardiology Transcatheter Valve Therapy Registry.

BACKGROUND: Stroke is a serious complication after transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR), yet predictive models are not available. A new risk model for in-hospital stroke after TAVR was developed and used to estimate site-specific performance. METHODS: We included 97,600 TAVR procedures from 521 sites in The Society of Thoracic Surgeons/American College of Cardiology Transcatheter Valve Therapy Registry from July 2014 to June 2017. Association between baseline covariates and in-hospital stroke was estimated by logistic regression. Discrimination was evaluated by C-statistic. Calibration was tested internally via cross-validation. Hierarchical modeling was used to estimate risk-adjusted site-specific performance. RESULTS: Median age was 82 years, 44,926 (46.0%) were women, and 1,839 (1.9%) had in-hospital stroke. Covariates associated with stroke (odds ratio) included transapical access (1.44), access excluding transapical and transfemoral (1.77), prior stroke (1.57), prior transient ischemic attack (1.50), preprocedural shock, inotropes or mechanical assist device (1.48), smoking (1.28), porcelain aorta (1.23), peripheral arterial disease (1.21), age per 5 years (1.11), glomerular filtration rate per 5 mL/min (0.97), body surface area per m2 (0.55 male; 0.43 female), and prior aortic valve (0.78) and nonaortic valvular (0.42) procedures. The C-statistic was 0.622. Calibration curves demonstrated agreement between observed and expected stroke rates. Hierarchical modeling showed 10 (1.9%) centers with significantly higher odds ratios for in-hospital stroke than their peers. CONCLUSIONS: A risk model for in-hospital stroke after TAVR was developed from The Society of Thoracic Surgeons/American College of Cardiology Transcatheter Valve Therapy Registry and used to estimate site-specific stroke performance. This model can serve as a valuable resource for quality improvement, clinical decision making, and patient counseling.

Assessment of Commonly Used Frailty Markers for High- and Extreme-Risk Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement.

BACKGROUND: The effect of frailty on outcomes after transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) remains incompletely understood. The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of four commonly used frailty markers as predictors of early and late outcomes among patients undergoing TAVR. METHODS: A review was performed of 361 high- and extreme-risk patients undergoing TAVR from 2011 to 2015. Four frailty variables were assessed: serum albumin (g/dL), 5-m walk (seconds), grip strength (kg), and Katz index of independence in activities of daily living. Logistic regression was used to examine the association between the frailty indicators and 30-day composite of mortality, stroke, new heart block requiring permanent pacemaker, major or life-threatening bleeding, acute renal failure, major vascular complication, and 30-day readmission rate. Minimum distance to the perfect point (0, 1) was performed to delineate a cutoff point for each frailty indicator, and risk models were compared using receiver-operating characteristics curves. RESULTS: The composite of outcomes occurred in 28% of patients. Serum albumin, activities of daily living, and 5-m walk were independent predictors for 30-day composite outcomes, but only albumin was predictive of 30-day mortality. A new frailty model (four frailty indicators, age, and sex) to predict 30-day mortality was created and compared with The Society of Thoracic Surgeons predicted risk of mortality. Better discrimination was found with the new frailty model (area under the curve 0.74 versus 0.58). New individual frailty variable cutoff values were found to predict our composite of events. CONCLUSIONS: Among high- and extreme-risk patients undergoing TAVR, our new frailty model was more discriminative of 30-day mortality than The Society of Thoracic Surgeons predicted risk of mortality. New cutoff values for frailty indicators were identified and will require further validation.