Expanding Access to High KDPI Kidney Transplant for Recipients Aged 60 y and Older: Cost Utility and Survival.

Background: Modern organ allocation systems are tasked with equitably maximizing the utility of transplanted organs. Increasing the use of deceased donor organs at risk of discard may be a cost-effective strategy to improve overall transplant benefit. We determined the survival implications and cost utility of increasing the use of marginal kidneys in an older adult Canadian population of patients with end-stage kidney disease. Methods: We constructed a cost-utility model with microsimulation from the perspective of the Canadian single-payer health system for incident transplant waitlisted patients aged 60 y and older. A kidney donor profile index score of ≥86 was considered a marginal kidney. Donor- and recipient-level characteristics encompassed in the kidney donor profile index and estimated posttransplant survival scores were used to derive survival posttransplant. Patients were followed up for 10 y from the date of waitlist initiation. Our analysis compared the routine use of marginal kidneys (marginal kidney scenario) with the current practice of limited use (status quo scenario). Results: The 10-y mean cost and quality-adjusted life-years per patient in the marginal kidney scenario were estimated at $379 485.33 (SD: $156 872.49) and 4.77 (SD: 1.87). In the status quo scenario, the mean cost and quality-adjusted life-years per patient were $402 937.68 (SD: $168 508.85) and 4.37 (SD: 1.87); thus, the intervention was considered dominant. At 10 y, 62.8% and 57.0% of the respective cohorts in the marginal kidney and status quo scenarios remained alive. Conclusions: Increasing the use of marginal kidneys in patients with end-stage kidney disease aged 60 y and older may offer cost savings, improved quality of life, and greater patient survival in comparison with usual care.

Exploring the impact of military conflict on sex work in Ukraine: Women's experiences of economic burden.

Little is known about the impact of military conflict on sex work from the perspective of sex workers. We attempt to explore the meaning of conflict on sex work by asking women about the changes that they have experienced in their lives and work since the beginning of the 2014 military conflict in eastern Ukraine. The findings in this article are based on qualitative interviews with 43 cisgender women living and practicing sex work in Dnipro, eastern Ukraine. Our analysis highlights the meanings that sex workers have linked to the conflict, with financial concerns emerging as a dominant theme. The conflict therefore functions as a way of understanding changing economic circumstances with both individual and broader impacts. By better understanding the meaning of conflict as expressed by sex workers, we can begin to adapt our response to address emerging, and unmet, needs of the community.

Managing mental health: why we need to redress the balance between healthcare spending and social spending.

BACKGROUND: Mental health outcomes vary widely among high-income countries, although mental health problems represent an increasing proportion of the burden of disease for all countries. This has led to increased demand for healthcare services, but mental health outcomes may also be particularly sensitive to the availability of social services. This paper examines the variation in the absolute and relative amounts that high-income countries spend on healthcare and social services to determine whether increased expenditure on social services relative to healthcare expenditure might be associated with better mental health outcomes. METHODS: This paper estimates the association between patterns of government spending and population mental health, as measured by the death rate resulting from mental and behavioural disorders, across member countries of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). We use country-level repeated measures multivariable modelling for the period from 1995 to 2016 with region and time effects, adjusted for total spending and demographic and economic characteristics. Healthcare spending includes all curative services, long-term care, ancillary services, medical goods, preventative care and administration whilst social spending consists of all transfer payments made to individuals and families as part of the welfare state. RESULTS: We find that a higher ratio of social to healthcare expenditure is associated with significantly better mental health outcomes for OECD populations, as measured by the death rate resulting from mental and behavioural disorders. We also find that there is no statistically significant association between healthcare spending and population mental health when we do not control for social spending. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that OECD countries can have a significant impact on population mental health by investing a greater proportion of total expenditure in social services.

Health-related quality of life and economic burden to smoking behaviour among Canadians.

OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this study were to: (1) examine whether the smoking status of the Canadian population is associated with a reduction in health-related quality of life (HRQoL); (2) calculate the overall economic burden of loss in HRQoL using a commonly accepted $100,000 willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold to gain one quality-adjusted life year (QALY); and (3) calculate the loss of HRQoL over a lifetime. METHODS: We used the 2015 Canadian Community Health Survey. The variations in HRQoL were estimated using a multivariable generalized linear model. Total expected lifetime QALYs lost due to smoking were calculated by compounding the annual adjusted health utility loss associated with smoking across a respondent's remaining years of life expectancy stratified by age. A discount rate of 1.5% was applied to the analysis based on recent analysis of the costs of borrowing in Canada. RESULTS: Smoking is significantly associated with HRQoL loss. This study demonstrated that smoking is associated with a 0.05 and 0.01 reduction in Health Utilities Index Mark 3 (HUI3) score for current and former smokers, which also corresponds to a loss of 0.66 quality-adjusted life years in average, and also is associated with substantial individual and societal economic cost. The total lifetime economic burden of HUI3 loss per smoker was $65,935, yielding in the aggregate a societal burden of $1068.88 billion in the study population. CONCLUSION: Tobacco control, prevention and intervention not only will improve HRQoL but also will generate social returns on investment.

The effects of cigarette price and the amount of pocket money on youth smoking initiation and intensity in Canada.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the price and income elasticities of adolescent smoking initiation and intensity to determine the extent to which increased pocket money leads to greater smoking among youth, and whether higher taxes can mitigate this effect. METHODS: We used the 2012/2013 Canadian Youth Smoking Survey including students in grades 7-12. The multivariable logistic regression was used to examine the probability of smoking initiation, and a linear regression to examine the smoking intensity determined by province-level prices of cigarettes, pocket money, and a vector of individual characteristics, including age, sex, race, and school-related and psychosocial factors. RESULTS: Of respondents, 28.8% have tried cigarette smoking. More than 90% of these initiated smoking between age 9 and 17. Male smokers consumed a higher average number of whole cigarettes daily than did females. The price elasticity of smoking initiation and intensity for youth in the full sample were - 1.13 and - 1.02, respectively, which means that a 10% increase in price leads to an 11.3% reduction in initiation and a 10.2% reduction in intensity. The income elasticity of smoking initiation and intensity for youth in the full sample were 0.07 and 0.06, respectively, which means that a 10% increase in income leads to a 0.7% increase in initiation and a 0.6% increase in intensity. CONCLUSION: Economic measures such as taxation that raise the price of cigarettes may be a useful policy tool to limit smoking initiation and intensity.

Cost-effectiveness of alternate strategies for childhood immunization against meningococcal disease with monovalent and quadrivalent conjugate vaccines in Canada.

BACKGROUND: Public health programs to prevent invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) with monovalent serogroup C meningococcal conjugate vaccine (MCV-C) and quadrivalent meningococcal conjugate vaccines (MCV-4) in infancy and adolescence vary across Canadian provinces. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of various vaccination strategies against IMD using current and anticipated future pricing and recent epidemiology. METHODS: A cohort model was developed to estimate the clinical burden and costs (CAN$2014) of IMD in the Canadian population over a 100-year time horizon for three strategies: (1) MCV-C in infants and adolescents (MCV-C/C); (2) MCV-C in infants and MCV-4 in adolescents (MCV-C/4); and (3) MCV-4 in infants (2 doses) and adolescents (MCV-4/4). The source for IMD incidence was Canadian surveillance data. The effectiveness of MCV-C was based on published literature. The effectiveness of MCV-4 against all vaccination regimens was assumed to be the same as for MCV-C regimens against serogroup C. Herd effects were estimated by calibration to estimates reported in prior analyses. Costs were from published sources. Vaccines prices were projected to decline over time reflecting historical procurement trends. RESULTS: Over the modeling horizon there are a projected 11,438 IMD cases and 1,195 IMD deaths with MCV-C/C; expected total costs are $597.5 million. MCV-C/4 is projected to reduce cases of IMD by 1,826 (16%) and IMD deaths by 161 (13%). Vaccination costs are increased by $32 million but direct and indirect IMD costs are projected to be reduced by $46 million. MCV-C/4 is therefore dominant vs. MCV-C/C in the base case. Cost-effectiveness of MCV-4/4 was $111,286 per QALY gained versus MCV-C/4 (2575/206 IMD cases/deaths prevented; incremental costs $68 million). CONCLUSIONS: If historical trends in Canadian vaccines prices continue, use of MCV-4 instead of MCV-C in adolescents may be cost-effective. From an economic perspective, switching to MCV-4 as the adolescent booster should be considered.

Comparison of the accuracy of classification models to estimate healthcare use and costs associated with COPD exacerbations in Saskatchewan, Canada: A retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: COPD is a high-cost disease and results in frequent contacts with the healthcare system. The study objective was to compare the accuracy of classification models with different covariates for classifying COPD patients into cost groups. METHODS: Linked health administrative databases from Saskatchewan, Canada, were used to identify a cohort of newly diagnosed COPD patients (April 1, 2007 to March 31, 2011) and their episodes of healthcare encounters for disease exacerbations. Total costs of the first and follow-up episodes were computed and patients were categorized as persistently high cost, occasionally high cost, and persistently low cost based on cumulative cost distribution ranking using the 75th percentile cutoff for high-cost status. Classification accuracy was compared for seven multinomial logistic regression models containing socio-demographic characteristics (i.e., base model), and socio-demographic and prior healthcare use characteristics (i.e., comparator models). RESULTS: Of the 1182 patients identified, 8.5% were classified as persistently high cost, 26.1% as occasionally high cost, and the remainder as persistently low cost. The persistently high-cost and occasionally high-cost patients incurred 10 times ($12 449 vs $1263) and seven times ($9334 vs $1263) more costs in their first exacerbation episode than persistently low-cost patients, respectively. Classification accuracy was 0.67 for the base model, whereas the comparator model containing socio-demographic and number of prior hospital admissions had the highest accuracy (0.72). CONCLUSIONS: Costs associated with COPD exacerbation episodes are substantial. Adding prior hospitalization to socio-demographic characteristics produced the highest improvements in classification accuracy. Accurate classification models are important for identifying potential healthcare cost management strategies.

Identifying Distinct Healthcare Pathways During Episodes of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Exacerbations.

Healthcare pathways are important to measure because they are expected to affect outcomes. However, they are challenging to define because patients exhibit heterogeneity in their use of healthcare services. The objective of this study was to identify and describe healthcare pathways during episodes of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations. Linked administrative databases from Saskatchewan, Canada were used to identify a cohort of newly diagnosed COPD patients and their episodes of healthcare use for disease exacerbations. Latent class analysis (LCA) was used to classify the cohort into homogeneous pathways using indicators of respiratory-related hospitalizations, emergency department (ED) visits, general and specialist physician visits, and outpatient prescription drug dispensations. Multinomial logistic regression models tested patients' demographic and disease characteristics associated with pathway group membership. The most frequent healthcare contact sequences in each pathway were described. Tests of mean costs across groups were conducted using a model-based approach with χ² statistics. LCA identified 3 distinct pathways for patients with hospital- (n = 963) and ED-initiated (n = 364) episodes. For the former, pathway group 1 members followed complex pathways in which multiple healthcare services were repeatedly used and incurred substantially higher costs than patients in the other pathway groups. For patients with an ED-initiated episode, pathway group 1 members also had higher costs than other groups. Pathway groups differed with respect to patient demographic and disease characteristics. A minority of patients were discharged from ED or hospital, but did not have any follow-up care during the remainder of their episode.Patients who followed complex pathways could benefit from case management interventions to streamline their journeys through the healthcare system. The minority of patients whose pathways were not consistent with recommended follow-up care should be further investigated to fully align COPD treatment in the province with recommended care practices.

Surge capacity: analysis of census fluctuations to estimate the number of intensive care unit beds needed.

OBJECTIVE: To compare methods of characterizing intensive care unit (ICU) bed use and estimate the number of beds needed. STUDY SETTING: Three geographic regions in the Canadian province of Manitoba. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of population-based data from April 1, 2000, to March 31, 2007. METHODS: We compared three methods to estimate ICU bed requirements. Method 1 analyzed yearly patient-days. Methods 2 and 3 analyzed day-to-day fluctuations in patient census; these differed by whether each hospital needed to independently fulfill its own demand or this resource was shared across hospitals. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Three main findings were as follows: (1) estimates based on yearly average usage generally underestimated the number of beds needed compared to analysis of fluctuations in census, especially in the smaller regions where underestimation ranged 25-58 percent; (2) 4-29 percent fewer beds were needed if it was acceptable for demand to exceed supply 18 days/year, versus 4 days/year; and (3) 13-36 percent fewer beds were needed if hospitals within a region could effectively share ICU beds. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to using yearly averages, analyzing day-to-day fluctuations in patient census gives a more accurate picture of ICU bed use. Failing to provide adequate "surge capacity" can lead to demand that frequently and severely exceeds supply.

Is herpes zoster vaccination likely to be cost-effective in Canada?

OBJECTIVES: To synthesize the current literature detailing the cost-effectiveness of the herpes zoster (HZ) vaccine, and to provide Canadian policy-makers with cost-effectiveness measurements in a Canadian context. METHODS: This article builds on an existing systematic review of the HZ vaccine that offers a quality assessment of 11 recent articles. We first replicated this study, and then two assessors reviewed the articles and extracted information on vaccine effectiveness, cost of HZ, other modelling assumptions and QALY estimates. Then we transformed the results into a format useful for Canadian policy decisions. Results expressed in different currencies from different years were converted into 2012 Canadian dollars using Bank of Canada exchange rates and a Consumer Price Index deflator. Modelling assumptions that varied between studies were synthesized. We tabled the results for comparability. SYNTHESIS: The Szucs systematic review presented a thorough methodological assessment of the relevant literature. However, the various studies presented results in a variety of currencies, and based their analyses on disparate methodological assumptions. Most of the current literature uses Markov chain models to estimate HZ prevalence. Cost assumptions, discount rate assumptions, assumptions about vaccine efficacy and waning and epidemiological assumptions drove variation in the outcomes. This article transforms the results into a table easily understood by policy-makers. CONCLUSION: The majority of the current literature shows that HZ vaccination is cost-effective at the price of $100,000 per QALY. Few studies showed that vaccination cost-effectiveness was higher than this threshold, and only under conservative assumptions. Cost-effectiveness was sensitive to vaccine price and discount rate.

Smoking during pregnancy: findings from the 2009-2010 Canadian Community Health Survey.

OBJECTIVES: Smoking during pregnancy may cause many health problems for pregnant women and their newborns. However, there is a paucity of research that has examined the predictors of smoking during pregnancy in Canada. This study used data from the 2009-2010 Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) to estimate the prevalence of smoking during pregnancy and examine the demographic, socioeconomic, health-related and behavioral determinants of this behavior. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The data were obtained from the 2009-2010 CCHS master data file. Weighted estimates of the prevalence were calculated. Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine demographic, socioeconomic, health related and behavioral characteristics associated with smoking behavior during pregnancy. Women living in the Northern Territories had a high rate of smoking during pregnancy (59.3%). The prevalence of smoking during pregnancy was also high among women under 25 years old, of low socioeconomic status, who reported not having a regular medical doctor, being fair to poor in self-perceived health, having at least one chronic disease, having at least one mental illness, being heavy smokers, and being regular alcohol drinkers. Results from multivariable logistic regression revealed that the odds of smoking during pregnancy were decreased with increasing age (odds ratio [OR], 0.95; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.91-0.99), having a regular family doctor [OR, 0.24; 95% CI, 0.11-0.52], having highest level of family income [OR, 0.09; 95% CI, 0.03-0.29]. Mothers who reported poor or fair self-perceived health [OR, 2.13; 95% CI, 0.96-4.71] and those who had at least one mental illness [OR, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.00-3.28] had greater odds of smoking during pregnancy. CONCLUSIONS: There are a number of demographic, socio-economic, health-related and behavioral characteristics that should be considered in developing and implementing effective population health promotional strategies to prevent smoking during pregnancy, promoting health and well-being of pregnant women and their newborns.

Economic evaluation of Manitoba Health Lines in the management of congestive heart failure.

OBJECTIVE: This one-year study investigated whether the Manitoba Provincial Health Contact program for congestive heart failure (CHF) is a cost-effective intervention relative to the standard treatment. DESIGN: Individual patient-level, randomized clinical trial of cost-effective model using data from the Health Research Data Repository at the Manitoba Centre for Health Policy, University of Manitoba. METHODS: A total of 179 patients aged 40 and over with a diagnosis of CHF levels II to IV were recruited from Winnipeg and Central Manitoba and randomized into three treatment groups: one receiving standard care, a second receiving Health Lines (HL) intervention and a third receiving Health Lines intervention plus in-house monitoring (HLM). A cost-effectiveness study was conducted in which outcomes were measured in terms of QALYs derived from the SF-36 and costs using 2005 Canadian dollars. Costs included intervention and healthcare utilization. Bootstrap-resampled incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were computed to take into account the uncertainty related to small sample size. RESULTS: The total per-patient mean costs (including intervention cost) were not significantly different between study groups. Both interventions (HL and HLM) cost less and are more effective than standard care, with HL able to produce an additional QALY relative to HLM for $2,975. The sensitivity analysis revealed that there is an 85.8% probability that HL is cost-effective if decision-makers are willing to pay $50,000. CONCLUSION: Findings demonstrate that the HL intervention from the Manitoba Provincial Health Contact program for CHF is an optimal intervention strategy for CHF management compared to standard care and HLM.

New questions, new data, old interventions: the health effects of a guaranteed annual income.

OBJECTIVES: This study investigates whether administration data from universal health insurance can yield new insight from an old intervention. Specifically, did a guaranteed annual income experiment from the 1970s, designed to investigate labor market outcomes, reduce hospitalization rates? METHOD: The study re-examined the saturation site of a guaranteed annual income experiment in Dauphin, Manitoba (CANADA) conducted between 1974 and 1979 (MINCOME). We used health administration data generated by the universal government health insurance plan to identify subjects (approximately 12,500 residents of Dauphin and its rural municipality). We used propensity-score matching to select 3 controls for each subject from this database, matched on geography of residence, age, sex, family size and type. Outcome measures were hospital separations and physician claims. RESULTS: Hospital separations declined 8.5% among subjects relative to controls during the experimental period. Accident and injury codes and mental health codes were most responsible for the decline. CONCLUSIONS: Even though MINCOME was designed to measure the impact of a GAI on the number of hours worked, one can re-visit old experiments with new data to determine the health impact of population interventions designed for other purposes. We determined that hospitalization rates declined significantly after the introduction of a guaranteed income.

Have investments in on-reserve health services and initiatives promoting community control improved First Nations' health in Manitoba?

The objective of this study was to document the relationship between First Nation's community characteristics and the rates of hospitalization for Ambulatory Care Sensitive Conditions (ACSC) in the province of Manitoba, Canada. A population-based time trend analysis of selected ACSC was conducted using the de-identified administrative data housed at the Manitoba Centre for Health Policy, including vital statistics and health information. The study population included all Manitoba residents eligible under the universal Manitoba Health Services Insurance Plan and living on First Nation reserves between 1984/85 and 2004/05. Twenty-nine ACSC defined using 3, 4 and 5 digit ICD-9-CM and ICD-10-CM codes permitted cross-sectional and longitudinal comparison of hospitalization rates. The analysis used Generalized Estimated Equation (GEE) modeling. Two variables were significant in our model: level of access to primary health care on-reserve; and level of local autonomy. Communities with local access to a broader complement of primary health care services showed a lower rate of hospitalization for ACSC. We also examined whether there was a significant trend in the rates of hospitalization for ACSC over time following the signature of an agreement increasing local autonomy over resource allocation. We found the rates of hospitalization for ACSC decreased with each year following the signature of such an agreement. This article demonstrates that communities with better local access to primary health care consistently show lower rates of ACSC. Secondly, the longer community health services have been under community control, the lower its ACSC rate.

Variations in Lifetime Healthcare Costs across a Population.

The mean costs of providing healthcare increase with age, but within every age/sex cohort there is substantial variation. Moreover, this variation does not disappear over the users' lifetime. This study applies Markov modelling to administrative data to examine the variability of healthcare costs currently covered under the Canada Health Act across a population and over the lifespan. Policy initiatives that ignore individual variability across the lifespan yield inequitable results. For example, age-specific policies that exempt seniors from costs charged to the rest of the population will transfer healthcare resources to healthy low-cost seniors from younger individuals with higher needs.

Enzyme replacement therapy in orphan and ultra-orphan diseases: the limitations of standard economic metrics as exemplified by Fabry-Anderson disease.

BACKGROUND: Fabry-Anderson disease is an x-linked deficiency of lysosomal alpha-galactosidase A (GALA), resulting in chronic renal failure, cardiac arrhythmia, hypertrophy, valvular disease, pain (acro-paraesthesiae) and stroke, together with premature mortality. The disease has a significant impact on quality of life (QOL), as illustrated by studies using the EQ-5D. A specific treatment is available for Fabry-Anderson disease consisting of intravenous enzyme replacement therapy (ERT) of the deficient enzyme. The variable clinical efficacy and cost of ERT has resulted in reluctance by some health providers to approve it. METHODS: We use the limited QOL data available in the Fabry-Anderson disease literature on ERT to derive standard economic metrics. These were derived by bootstrap estimates of the incremental net benefit (INB) statistics together with a cost-effectiveness acceptability curve relating the willingness to pay to the probability that the INB was >0. The estimates were further developed by adoption of a supplementary Bayesian approach utilising a sceptical and enthusiastic prior of the INB of ERT in Fabry-Anderson disease. RESULTS: ERT for Fabry-Anderson disease is not economically viable by standard health programme evaluation metrics. Based on current ERT costs (year 2005 values), derivation of the INB distribution, and a Bayesian analysis using an enthusiastic and sceptical prior of the INB, an upper (350,000 dollars over 1 year) and lower (175,000 dollars over 1 year) economic cost, respectively, of ERT was derived. CONCLUSION: The cost of ERT will always result in a net deficit to society under current costing and ERT efficacy as determined by the QALY metric. The rules of fair cooperation should govern decision making both for ERT in Fabry-Anderson disease and for funding therapeutic advances in other rare diseases belonging to the orphan and ultra-orphan categories.

Why equity in financing first nations on-reserve health services matters: findings from the 2005 national evaluation of the health transfer policy.

BACKGROUND: This paper reports on selected findings from the 2005 National Evaluation of the Health Transfer Policy. Three hypotheses were tested, namely: (1) that inequalities in per capita financing exist between First Nations organizations, (2) that variations in per capita funding among communities cannot be explained by variations in the program responsibilities each assumed and (3) that First Nations organizations that transferred in the early 1990s now have access to fewer resources on a per capita basis than those that transferred more recently. METHODS: We compared (1) the per capita funding for 30 medium-sized communities (population = 401-3,000) that have Health Centres and the 13 similarly sized communities that have Health Stations, (2) program responsibilities and per capita funding for the same 30 communities and (3) the relationship between 2001-2002 per capita funding and the year of transfer for the same communities. We used data provided to us by the First Nations and Inuit Health Branch of Health Canada from 1989 to 2002. RESULTS: The results show that differences in per capita funding exist among and within regions. These differences cannot be explained by the responsibilities each community chose to assume. Differences are also related to the year First Nations entered into a transfer agreement. CONCLUSIONS: We recommend that formula-based financing be adopted to reduce inequalities. Such a formula should reflect needs, population growth and changes in costs of service delivery.

Medical savings accounts in a universal system: wishful thinking meets evidence.

Medical savings accounts (MSAs) and similar approaches based on flowing reimbursements through individuals/consumers rather than providers are unsuited for systems with universal coverage. Data from Manitoba, Canada reveal that, because expenditures for physician and hospital services are highly skewed in all age groups, MSAs would substantially increase both public expenditures and out-of-pocket costs for the most ill. The empirical distribution of health expenditures limits the potential impact of many current 'demand-based' approaches to cost control. Because most of the population is relatively healthy and uses few hospital and physician services, inducing the general population to spend less will not yield substantial savings.

Does universal comprehensive insurance encourage unnecessary use? Evidence from Manitoba says "no".

BACKGROUND: Many argue that "free" medical care leads to unnecessary use of health resources. Evidence suggests that user fees do discourage physician use, at least by those of low socioeconomic status. In this study, we compare health care utilization and health among socioeconomic groups to determine whether people of low socioeconomic status see physicians more than would be expected given their health status. METHODS: We examined the use of health care services (physicians and hospitals) by residents of Winnipeg, Manitoba, in 1999. The cost of physician services was drawn directly from the claims filed, and the cost of hospital services was estimated using the Case Mix Group and Day Procedure Group methods linked to resource intensity weights and Manitoba hospital costs. We used neighbourhood indicators of socioeconomic status from the 1996 census and measured health status by examining rates of premature mortality, acute myocardial infarction, hip fracture (1995-1999) and diabetes (1999). Using these measures, we compared health status and health care use of residents living in areas with low average household incomes with those living in areas with high average household incomes. All rates were age- and sex-adjusted across the groups. RESULTS: The province spent 44% more providing hospital and physician services to residents of Winnipeg neighbourhoods with the lowest household incomes (820 dollars/person annually v. 596 dollars/person for residents of the neighbourhoods with highest household incomes). However, expenditures were strongly related to health status. The 70% of the population on which the province spends 10% of its health care dollars scored well on all health indicators, and the 10% of the population on which 74% of the dollars are spent scored poorly. In each expenditure group, those with lower socioeconomic status had poorer health. In the highest expenditure group, those with lowest socioeconomic status had 82% higher premature mortality rates (23.0 v. 12.6 per 100,000 population) and 53% higher hip fracture rates (5.5 v. 3.6 per 100,000 population) than those with the highest socioeconomic status. Despite their poorer health, in each expenditure group, residents of the neighbourhoods with the lowest household incomes incurred physician expenditures that were similar to those of residents of wealthier neighbourhoods. INTERPRETATION: Most people use little health care; high-cost users are a small group of very sick people drawn from all neighbourhoods and all income groups. People living in areas with low average household incomes use fewer physician services than might be expected, despite their poor health status.

Medical Savings Accounts: will they reduce costs?

BACKGROUND: Medical Savings Accounts are an attempt to reduce health care costs by transferring responsibility for expenditures to patients, while providing them with state-supported base amounts to cover some of the costs. We wondered whether such a system would actually be effective, given the fact that medical care expenditures (and illness) are unequally distributed across the population. METHODS: We used the Manitoba Population Health Research Data Respository to assess costs incurred by individual residents of Manitoba for all physician visits and admissions to hospital between 1997 and 1999, and we calculated an average expenditure per person per year over the 3 years. RESULTS: During fiscal years 1997-1999, physician and hospital costs that could be attributed to individual Manitoba residents averaged $730 each year. Most users accounted for very little expenditure. About 40% of the entire population of Manitoba used less than $100 each, and 80% used less than $600. The highest-using 1% of the Manitoba population accounted for 26% of all spending on hospital and physician care, whereas the lowest-using 50% accounted for 4%. When examined by age category, the results were similar. Even in the highest age category, most of the population falls into the low-usage category. If the entitlement under a Medical Savings Account scheme was set at the current average cost of $730 per year, then total spending by government on health care for this healthy group would increase (by $505 million) rather than decrease. If the "catastrophic threshold," above which the insurer would pay costs, was set at $1,000 per year, then the sickest 20% of Manitoba residents would become personally responsible for just over $60 million of current health care costs. The net result is a 54% increase in spending on hospital and physician costs that can be allocated to individuals. INTERPRETATION: Medical Savings Accounts will not save money but will instead, under most formulations, lead to an increase in spending on the healthiest members of the population.