Global Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases and Risk Factors, 1990-2019: Update From the GBD 2019 Study.

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), principally ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, are the leading cause of global mortality and a major contributor to disability. This paper reviews the magnitude of total CVD burden, including 13 underlying causes of cardiovascular death and 9 related risk factors, using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. GBD, an ongoing multinational collaboration to provide comparable and consistent estimates of population health over time, used all available population-level data sources on incidence, prevalence, case fatality, mortality, and health risks to produce estimates for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Prevalent cases of total CVD nearly doubled from 271 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 257 to 285 million) in 1990 to 523 million (95% UI: 497 to 550 million) in 2019, and the number of CVD deaths steadily increased from 12.1 million (95% UI:11.4 to 12.6 million) in 1990, reaching 18.6 million (95% UI: 17.1 to 19.7 million) in 2019. The global trends for disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and years of life lost also increased significantly, and years lived with disability doubled from 17.7 million (95% UI: 12.9 to 22.5 million) to 34.4 million (95% UI:24.9 to 43.6 million) over that period. The total number of DALYs due to IHD has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 182 million (95% UI: 170 to 194 million) DALYs, 9.14 million (95% UI: 8.40 to 9.74 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 197 million (95% UI: 178 to 220 million) prevalent cases of IHD in 2019. The total number of DALYs due to stroke has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 143 million (95% UI: 133 to 153 million) DALYs, 6.55 million (95% UI: 6.00 to 7.02 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 101 million (95% UI: 93.2 to 111 million) prevalent cases of stroke in 2019. Cardiovascular diseases remain the leading cause of disease burden in the world. CVD burden continues its decades-long rise for almost all countries outside high-income countries, and alarmingly, the age-standardized rate of CVD has begun to rise in some locations where it was previously declining in high-income countries. There is an urgent need to focus on implementing existing cost-effective policies and interventions if the world is to meet the targets for Sustainable Development Goal 3 and achieve a 30% reduction in premature mortality due to noncommunicable diseases.

Epidemiology of peripheral artery disease in Europe: VAS Educational Paper.

This paper reviews the current epidemiological data on peripheral artery disease (PAD) in Europe. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden is presented and PAD prevalence is discussed, as compared to coronary (CAD) and cerebrovascular (CeVD) diseases, in European Union (EU) countries and European continent countries. The article reviews PAD clinical manifestations, PAD diagnosis, risk factors for PAD incidence and progression, PAD prognosis and financial implications. CVD mortality is higher in women than in men and in European continent countries, as compared to EU countries. While CAD and CeVD have a lower prevalence in EU countries, as compared to the whole continent, PAD and other CVDs still have a higher prevalence in EU countries. PAD prevalence vary widely between countries, increases sharply with aging and has a relation with ethnicity. CVD comorbidities are high in PAD subjects and particularly high in those with critical limb ischemia. PAD prognosis is related to CAD and CeVD mortality, that are particularly high in critical limb ischemia. This review promotes the need for global awareness on PAD burden, stimulates PAD screening and emphasizes the importance of early diagnosis and treatment of PAD and associated cardiovascular comorbidities.

Surgery for small asymptomatic abdominal aortic aneurysms.

BACKGROUND: An abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is an abnormal ballooning of the major abdominal artery. Some AAAs present as emergencies and require surgery; others remain asymptomatic. Treatment of asymptomatic AAAs depends on many factors, including size: risk of rupture increases with aneurysm size. Large asymptomatic AAAs (> 5.5 cm in diameter) are usually operated on; very small AAAs (< 4.0 cm diameter) are monitored with ultrasonography. The optimal timing of surgery would benefit from further evidence. OBJECTIVES: This review compared long-term survival in patients with AAAs of diameter 4.0 to 5.5 cm who received immediate surgical repair versus routine ultrasound surveillance. SEARCH STRATEGY: Trials were identified through searching the Cochrane Peripheral Vascular Diseases Group Specialised Register and reference lists of relevant articles, supplemented by handsearches of recent conference proceedings and information from experts in the field. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials in which men and women with asymptomatic AAAs of diameter 4.0 to 5.5 cm were randomly allocated to immediate surgery or imaging-based surveillance at least every 12 months. Outcomes had to include mortality or survival. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: One author (GF) abstracted the data which were cross-checked by the other authors (DJB, FGRF, JTP). Due to the small number of trials, formal tests of heterogeneity and sensitivity analyses were not conducted. MAIN RESULTS: Two trials, the UK Small Aneurysm Trial (UKSAT) and the Aneurysm Detection and Management (ADAM) trial, fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Both showed an early survival benefit in the surveillance group (due to 30-day operative mortality with surgery) but no significant differences in long-term survival (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.88, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.75 to 1.02, mean follow up 10 years) (UKSAT); HR 1.21, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.54, mean follow up 4.9 years) (ADAM). The meta-analysis of mortality at six years revealed a non-significant association (Peto odds ratio 1.11, 95% CI 0.91 to 1.34). Neither trial independently had sufficient power for subgroup analyses (for example, by age or aneurysm size). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The results from the two trials to date suggest no overall advantage to early surgery for small AAA (4.0 to 5.5 cm) but provide no additional guidelines for 'best-care' management of subgroups of patients. An individual patient-level data meta-analysis using the combined data from these studies will have sufficient power to conduct subgroup analyses, which are expected to elucidate risks and benefits of each treatment option for subgroups based on age, fitness and aneurysm size.

A cross-sectional study of vascular risk factors in a rural South African population: data from the Southern African Stroke Prevention Initiative (SASPI).

BACKGROUND: Rural sub-Saharan Africa is at an early stage of economic and health transition. It is predicted that the 21st century will see a serious added economic burden from non-communicable disease including vascular disease in low-income countries as they progress through the transition. The stage of vascular disease in a population is thought to result from the prevalence of vascular risk factors. Already hypertension and stroke are common in adults in sub-Saharan Africa. Using a multidisciplinary approach we aimed to assess the prevalence of several vascular risk factors in Agincourt, a rural demographic surveillance site in South Africa. METHODS: We performed a cross sectional random sample survey of adults aged over 35 in Agincourt (population approximately 70 000). Participants were visited at home by a trained nurse who administered a questionnaire, carried out clinical measurements and took a blood sample. From this we assessed participants' history of vascular risk, blood pressure using an OMRON 705 CP monitor, waist circumference, body mass index (BMI), ankle brachial index (ABI), and total and HDL cholesterol. RESULTS: 402 people (24% men) participated. There was a high prevalence of smoking in men, but the number of cigarettes smoked was small. There was a striking difference in mean BMI between men and women (22.8 kg/m2 versus 27.2 kg/m2), but levels of blood pressure were very similar. 43% of participants had a blood pressure greater than 140/90 or were on anti-hypertensive treatment and 37% of participants identified with measured high blood pressure were on pharmacological treatment. 12% of participants had an ABI of < 0.9, sugesting the presence of sub-clinical atheroma. 25.6% of participants had a total cholesterol level > 5 mmol/l. CONCLUSION: We found a high prevalence of hypertension, obesity in women, and a suggestion of subclinical atheroma despite relatively favourable cholesterol levels in a rural South African population. South Africa is facing the challenge of an emerging epidemic of vascular disease. Research to establish the social determinates of these risk factors and interventions to reduce both individual and population risk are required.

Modelling the long term cost effectiveness of clopidogrel for the secondary prevention of occlusive vascular events in the UK.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the long term cost effectiveness of clopidogrel monotherapy compared with acetylsalicylic acid (aspirin; ASA) monotherapy in patients at risk of secondary occlusive vascular events (OVEs) in the UK. DESIGN: Cost utility analysis based on clinical data from CAPRIE (a multicentre randomised controlled trial, involving 19185 patients); long-term effects were extrapolated beyond the trial period using a Markov model populated with data from UK observational studies. Health economic evaluation carried out from the perspective of the UK National Health Service. PARTICIPANTS: A representative cohort of 1000 UK patients aged 60 years (approximate mean age of the CAPRIE population), with the qualifying diagnoses of myocardial infarction, ischaemic stroke and peripheral arterial disease, who are at risk of secondary OVEs (non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke or vascular death). INTERVENTIONS: Patients were assumed to receive treatment with either clopidogrel (75 mg/day) for 2 years followed by ASA (325 mg/day, average) for their remaining lifetime, or ASA alone (325 mg/day, average) for life. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incremental cost per life year gained and incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. RESULTS: In the base case, the incremental cost effectiveness of clopidogrel versus ASA in this population is estimated at 18888 pounds per life year gained and 21 489 pounds per QALY gained. Multiple deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses suggest the model is robust to variations in a wide range of input parameters. CONCLUSION: Two years of treatment with clopidogrel can be considered a cost effective intervention in patients at risk of secondary OVEs in the UK.