Questionnaire PLD-complaint-specific assessment identifies need for therapy in polycystic liver disease: A multi-centric prospective study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Polycystic liver disease (PLD) can lead to extensive hepatomegaly. Symptom relief is the primary goal of the treatment. The role of the recently developed disease-specific questionnaires for identification of the thresholds and the assessment of therapy needs further investigation. METHODS: A five-year prospective multi-centric observational study in 21 hospitals in Belgium gathered a study population of 198 symptomatic PLD-patients of whom the disease-specific symptom questionnaire PLD-complaint-specific assessment (POLCA) scores were calculated. The thresholds of the POLCA score for the need for volume reduction therapy were analyzed. RESULTS: The study group consisted of mostly (82.8%) women with baseline mean age of 54.4 years ±11.2, median liver volume expressed as height-adjusted total liver volume(htLV) of 1994 mL (interquartile range [IQR] 1275; 3150) and median growth of the liver of +74 mL/year (IQR +3; +230). Volume reduction therapy was needed in 71 patients (35.9%). A POLCA severity score (SPI) ≥ 14 predicted the need for therapy both in the derivation (n = 63) and the validation cohort (n = 126). The thresholds to start somatostatin analogues (n = 55) or to consider liver transplantation (n = 18) were SPI scores of ≥14 and ≥ 18 and the corresponding mean htLVs were 2902 mL (IQR 1908; 3964) and 3607 mL (IQR 2901; 4337), respectively. Somatostatin analogues treatment resulted in a decrease in the SPI score -6.0 versus + 4.5 in patients without somatostatin analogues (p < 0.01). Changes in the SPI score were significantly different between the liver transplantation group and no liver transplantation group, +4.3 ± 7.1 versus -1.6 ± 4.9, respectively, (p < 0.01). CONCLUSION: A polycystic liver disease-specific questionnaire can be used as a guide on when to start a volume reduction therapy and to assess the effect of treatment.

Assessment of portal hypertension severity using machine learning models in patients with compensated cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: In individuals with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD), the severity of portal hypertension (PH) determines the risk of decompensation. Invasive measurement of the hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) is the diagnostic gold standard for PH. We evaluated the utility of machine learning models (MLMs) based on standard laboratory parameters to predict the severity of PH in individuals with cACLD. METHODS: A detailed laboratory workup of individuals with cACLD recruited from the Vienna cohort (NCT03267615) was utilised to predict clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH, i.e., HVPG ≥10 mmHg) and severe PH (i.e., HVPG ≥16 mmHg). The MLMs were then evaluated in individual external datasets and optimised in the merged cohort. RESULTS: Among 1,232 participants with cACLD, the prevalence of CSPH/severe PH was similar in the Vienna (n = 163, 67.4%/35.0%) and validation (n = 1,069, 70.3%/34.7%) cohorts. The MLMs were based on 3 (3P: platelet count, bilirubin, international normalised ratio) or 5 (5P: +cholinesterase, +gamma-glutamyl transferase, +activated partial thromboplastin time replacing international normalised ratio) laboratory parameters. The MLMs performed robustly in the Vienna cohort. 5P-MLM had the best AUCs for CSPH (0.813) and severe PH (0.887) and compared favourably to liver stiffness measurement (AUC: 0.808). Their performance in external validation datasets was heterogeneous (AUCs: 0.589-0.887). Training on the merged cohort optimised model performance for CSPH (AUCs for 3P and 5P: 0.775 and 0.789, respectively) and severe PH (0.737 and 0.828, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Internally trained MLMs reliably predicted PH severity in the Vienna cACLD cohort but exhibited heterogeneous results on external validation. The proposed 3P/5P online tool can reliably identify individuals with CSPH or severe PH, who are thus at risk of hepatic decompensation. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: We used machine learning models based on widely available laboratory parameters to develop a non-invasive model to predict the severity of portal hypertension in individuals with compensated cirrhosis, who currently require invasive measurement of hepatic venous pressure gradient. We validated our findings in a large multicentre cohort of individuals with advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) of any cause. Finally, we provide a readily available online calculator, based on 3 (platelet count, bilirubin, international normalised ratio) or 5 (platelet count, bilirubin, activated partial thromboplastin time, gamma-glutamyltransferase, choline-esterase) widely available laboratory parameters, that clinicians can use to predict the likelihood of their patients with cACLD having clinically significant or severe portal hypertension.

Assessment of biopsy-proven liver fibrosis by two-dimensional shear wave elastography: An individual patient data-based meta-analysis.

Two-dimensional shear wave elastography (2D-SWE) has proven to be efficient for the evaluation of liver fibrosis in small to moderate-sized clinical trials. We aimed at running a larger-scale meta-analysis of individual data. Centers which have worked with Aixplorer ultrasound equipment were contacted to share their data. Retrospective statistical analysis used direct and paired receiver operating characteristic and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) analyses, accounting for random effects. Data on both 2D-SWE and liver biopsy were available for 1,134 patients from 13 sites, as well as on successful transient elastography in 665 patients. Most patients had chronic hepatitis C (n = 379), hepatitis B (n = 400), or nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (n = 156). AUROCs of 2D-SWE in patients with hepatitis C, hepatitis B, and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease were 86.3%, 90.6%, and 85.5% for diagnosing significant fibrosis and 92.9%, 95.5%, and 91.7% for diagnosing cirrhosis, respectively. The AUROC of 2D-SWE was 0.022-0.084 (95% confidence interval) larger than the AUROC of transient elastography for diagnosing significant fibrosis (P = 0.001) and 0.003-0.034 for diagnosing cirrhosis (P = 0.022) in all patients. This difference was strongest in hepatitis B patients. CONCLUSION: 2D-SWE has good to excellent performance for the noninvasive staging of liver fibrosis in patients with hepatitis B; further prospective studies are needed for head-to-head comparison between 2D-SWE and other imaging modalities to establish disease-specific appropriate cutoff points for assessment of fibrosis stage. (Hepatology 2018;67:260-272).

Noninvasive assessment of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in obese or overweight patients.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Reliable noninvasive tools are needed for staging nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Published scoring systems have not been validated in prospective assessments of unselected patients. We aimed to identify factors that predicted development of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) in a large group of overweight or obese patients and compared these with established factors. METHODS: We performed a prospective analysis of factors associated with the development and severity of NAFLD in patients at a single obesity center. We evaluated liver involvement in 542 patients by a large set of routine and non-routine parameters, including ultrasound and genetic testing. Those suspected of having NAFLD underwent liver biopsy (57.7%). Patients were divided into design cohort (n = 200) and validation cohort (n = 113) to identify factors associated with the presence and severity of NAFLD and NASH. RESULTS: Factors independently associated with development of NASH included increased levels of alanine aminotransferase (ALT), fasting levels of C-peptide, and ultrasound steatosis scores (USSs), with area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) values of 0.854 in the design cohort and 0.823 in the validation cohort. NASH activity scores also correlated with level of ALT, USS, and fasting level of C-peptide (R(2) = 0.491). Independent predictors of advanced fibrosis included waist circumference and level of aspartate aminotransferase (AUROC values of 0.839 and 0.846 for design and validation cohorts, respectively; negative predictive values of 98% and 97%, respectively, for a cutoff of -2.14). Previously published scoring systems had significantly lower AUROC values. Levels of CK18 and PNPLA3 polymorphisms correlated with development of NASH but did not add value. CONCLUSIONS: Parameters routinely analyzed in assessing obese patients can be used to determine the presence of NASH and advanced fibrosis. Non-routine tests do not increase diagnostic accuracy. Previously published scores are significantly less accurate.