THE INTERGENERATIONAL MORTALITY TRADE-OFF OF COVID-19 LOCKDOWN POLICIES.

In lower-income countries, the economic contractions that accompany lockdowns to contain COVID-19 transmission can increase child mortality, counteracting the mortality reductions achieved by the lockdown. To formalize and quantify this effect, we build a macrosusceptible-infected-recovered model that features heterogeneous agents and a country-group-specific relationship between economic downturns and child mortality and calibrate it to data for 85 countries across all income levels. We find that in some low-income countries, a lockdown can produce net increases in mortality. The optimal lockdown that maximizes the present value of aggregate social welfare is shorter and milder in poorer countries than in rich ones.

How many infants may have died in low-income and middle-income countries in 2020 due to the economic contraction accompanying the COVID-19 pandemic? Mortality projections based on forecasted declines in economic growth.

OBJECTIVES: While COVID-19 has a relatively small direct impact on infant mortality, the pandemic is expected to indirectly increase mortality of this vulnerable group in low-income and middle-income countries through its effects on the economy and health system performance. Previous studies projected indirect mortality by modelling how hypothesised disruptions in health services will affect health outcomes. We provide alternative projections, relying on modelling the relationship between aggregate income shocks and mortality. DESIGN: We construct a sample of 5.2 million births by pooling retrospective birth histories reported by women in Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in 83 low-income and middle-income countries between 1985 and 2018. We employ regression models with country-specific fixed-effects and flexible time trends to estimate the impact of gross domestic product per capita on infant mortality rate. We then use growth projections by the International Monetary Fund to predict the effect of the economic downturn in 2020 on infant mortality. RESULTS: We estimate 267 208 (95% CI 112 000 to 422 415) excess infant deaths in 128 countries, corresponding to a 6.8% (95% CI 2.8% to 10.7%) increase in the total number of infant deaths expected in 2020. CONCLUSIONS: The findings underscore the vulnerability of infants to the negative income shocks such as those imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic. While efforts towards prevention and treatment of COVID-19 remain paramount, the global community should also strengthen social safety nets and assure continuity of essential health services.

Assessing the performance of the Caregiver Reported Early Development Instruments (CREDI) in rural India.

Although many education and health programs aim to improve early childhood development, it is challenging to assess developmental levels of infants and small children through large household surveys. The Caregiver Reported Early Development Instruments (CREDI) has been proposed as an adaptable, practical, and low-cost instrument for measuring the developmental status of children under 3 years of age at scale, as it is relatively short and collected by caregiver report. This study employed the CREDI to measure the development of a sample of 994 children ages 22-35 months in rural India and compared the results to those obtained using the Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development (Bayley-III), a reliable and widely used instrument, albeit one not always suited to large-scale data collection efforts given its length, cost, and complexity of administration. The CREDI validation exercise showed that caregivers can provide assessments in keeping with the more interactive (hence more time-consuming and training-intensive) Bayley-III instrument. Noteworthy, there was no indication that concordance of the instruments differed by education of the caregiver. This is important as it points to alternate feasible tools to measure child development outcomes through large-scale surveys.

Using supervised learning to select audit targets in performance-based financing in health: An example from Zambia.

Independent verification is a critical component of performance-based financing (PBF) in health care, in which facilities are offered incentives to increase the volume of specific services but the same incentives may lead them to over-report. We examine alternative strategies for targeted sampling of health clinics for independent verification. Specifically, we empirically compare several methods of random sampling and predictive modeling on data from a Zambian PBF pilot that contains reported and verified performance for quantity indicators of 140 clinics. Our results indicate that machine learning methods, particularly Random Forest, outperform other approaches and can increase the cost-effectiveness of verification activities.

Cost-effectiveness of results-based financing, Zambia: a cluster randomized trial.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of results-based financing and input-based financing to increase use and quality of maternal and child health services in rural areas of Zambia. METHODS: In a cluster-randomized trial from April 2012 to June 2014, 30 districts were allocated to three groups: results-based financing (increased funding tied to performance on pre-agreed indicators), input-based financing (increased funding not tied to performance) or control (no additional funding), serving populations of 1.33, 1.26 and 1.40 million people, respectively. We assessed incremental financial costs for programme implementation and verification, consumables and supervision. We evaluated coverage and quality effectiveness of maternal and child health services before and after the trial, using data from household and facility surveys, and converted these to quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained. FINDINGS: Coverage and quality of care increased significantly more in results-based financing than control districts: difference in differences for coverage were 12.8% for institutional deliveries, 8.2% postnatal care, 19.5% injectable contraceptives, 3.0% intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy and 6.1% to 29.4% vaccinations. In input-based financing districts, coverage increased significantly more versus the control for institutional deliveries (17.5%) and postnatal care (13.2%). Compared with control districts, 641 more lives were saved (lower-upper bounds: 580-700) in results-based financing districts and 362 lives (lower-upper bounds: 293-430) in input-based financing districts. The corresponding incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were 809 United States dollars (US$) and US$ 413 per QALY gained, respectively. CONCLUSION: Compared with the control, both results-based financing and input-based financing were cost-effective in Zambia.

Incentives to change: effects of performance-based financing on health workers in Zambia.

BACKGROUND: Performance-based financing (PBF) has been implemented in a number of countries with the aim of transforming health systems and improving maternal and child health. This paper examines the effect of PBF on health workers' job satisfaction, motivation, and attrition in Zambia. It uses a randomized intervention/control design to evaluate before-after changes for three groups: intervention (PBF) group, control 1 (C1; enhanced financing) group, and control 2 (C2; pure control) group. METHODS: Mixed methods are employed. The quantitative portion comprises of a baseline and an endline survey. The survey and sampling scheme were designed to allow for a rigorous impact evaluation of PBF or C1 on several key performance indicators. The qualitative portion seeks to explain the pathways underlying the observed differences through interviews conducted at the beginning and at the three-year mark of the PBF program. RESULTS: Econometric analysis shows that PBF led to increased job satisfaction and decreased attrition on a subset of measures, with little effect on motivation. The C1 group also experienced some positive effects on job satisfaction. The null results of the quantitative assessment of motivation cohere with those of the qualitative assessment, which revealed that workers remain motivated by their dedication to the profession and to provide health care to the community rather than by financial incentives. The qualitative evidence also provides two explanations for higher overall job satisfaction in the C1 than in the PBF group: better working conditions and more effective supervision from the District Medical Office. The PBF group had higher satisfaction with compensation than both control groups because they have higher compensation and financial autonomy, which was intended to be part of the PBF intervention. While PBF could not address all the reasons for attrition, it did lower turnover because those health centers were staffed with qualified personnel and the personnel had role clarity. CONCLUSIONS: In Zambia, the implementation of PBF schemes brought about a significant increase in job satisfaction and a decrease in attrition, but had no significant effect on motivation. Enhanced health financing also increased stated job satisfaction.

A Conditional Cash Transfer Program in the Philippines Reduces Severe Stunting.

BACKGROUND: Pantawid, a conditional cash transfer (CCT) program in the Philippines, provided grants conditioned on health-related behaviors for children aged 0-5 y and schooling for those aged 10-14 y. OBJECTIVE: We investigated whether Pantawid improved anthropometric measurements in children aged 6-36 mo. METHODS: We estimated cross-sectional intention-to-treat effects using a 2011 cluster-randomized trial across 130 villages-65 treated and 65 control-with data collected after 31 mo of implementation. Anthropometry characteristics were measured for 241 children in treated areas and 244 children in control areas. Health service use for children aged 6-36 mo and dietary intake for those aged 6-60 mo also were measured. Outcome variables were height-for-age z scores (HAZs) and weight-for-age z scores (WAZs), stunting, severe stunting, underweight, and severely underweight. Impact also was assessed on perinatal care, institutional delivery, presence of skilled birth attendant, breastfeeding practices, immunization, growth monitoring and deworming, care-seeking, and children's intake of protein-rich foods. RESULTS: Pantawid was associated with a significant reduction in severe stunting [<-3 SD from WHO standards for healthy children; ß = -10.2 percentage points (95% CI -18.8, -1.6 percentage points); P = 0.020] as well as a marginally significant increase in HAZs [ß = 0.284 SDs (95% CI -0.033, 0.602 SDs); P = 0.08]. WAZs, stunting, underweight, and severely underweight status did not change. Concomitantly, several measures of health-seeking behavior increased significantly. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, Pantawid is one of few CCT programs worldwide that significantly reduced severe stunting in children aged 6-36 mo; changes in key parenting practices, including children's intake of protein-rich foods and care-seeking behavior, were concurrent.

Strengthening malaria service delivery through supportive supervision and community mobilization in an endemic Indian setting: an evaluation of nested delivery models.

BACKGROUND: Malaria continues to be a prominent global public health challenge. This study tested the effectiveness of two service delivery models for reducing the malaria burden, e.g. supportive supervision of community health workers (CHW) and community mobilization in promoting appropriate health-seeking behaviour for febrile illnesses in Odisha, India. METHODS: The study population comprised 120 villages from two purposively chosen malaria-endemic districts, with 40 villages randomly assigned to each of the two treatment arms, one with both supportive supervision and community mobilization and one with community mobilization alone, as well as an observational control arm. Outcome measures included changes in the utilization of bed nets and timely care-seeking for fever from a trained provider compared to the control group. Analysis was by intention-to-treat. RESULTS: Significant improvements were observed in the reported utilization of bed nets in both intervention arms (84.5% in arm A and 82.4% in arm B versus 78.6% in the control arm; p < 0.001). While overall rates of treatment-seeking were equal across study arms, treatment-seeking from a CHW was higher in both intervention arms (28%; p = 0.005 and 27.6%; p = 0.007) than in the control arm (19.2%). Fever cases were significantly more likely to visit a CHW and receive a timely diagnosis of fever in the combined interventions arm than in the control arm (82.1% vs. 67.1%; p = 0.025). Care-seeking from trained providers also increased with a substitution away from untrained providers. Further, fever cases from the combined interventions arm (60.6%; p = 0.004) and the community mobilization arm (59.3%; p = 0.012) were more likely to have received treatment from a skilled provider within 24 hours than fever cases from the control arm (50.1%). In particular, women from the combined interventions arm were more likely to have received timely treatment from a skilled provider (61.6% vs. 47.2%; p = 0.028). CONCLUSION: A community-based intervention combining the supportive supervision of community health workers with intensive community mobilization and can be effective in improving care-seeking and preventive behaviour and may be used to strengthen the national malaria control programme.

Health sector demand-side financial incentives in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review on demand- and supply-side effects.

Demand-side financial incentive (DSF) is an emerging strategy to improve health seeking behavior and health status in many low- and middle-income countries. This narrative synthesis assessed the demand- and supply-side effects of DSF. Forty one electronic data bases were searched to screen relevant experimental and quasi-experimental study designs. Out of the 64 selected papers, 28 were eligible for this review and they described 19 DSF initiatives across Asia, Africa and Latin America. There were three categories of initiatives, namely long-run multi-sectoral programs or LMPs (governmental); long-run health-exclusive programs (governmental); and short-run health-exclusive initiatives (both governmental and non-governmental). Irrespective of the nature of incentives and initiatives, all DSF programs could achieve their expected behavioral outcomes on healthcare seeking and utilization substantially. However, there existed a few negative and perverse outcomes on health seeking behavior and DSF's impact on continuous health seeking choices (e.g. bed net use and routine adult health check-ups) was mixed. Their effects on maternal health status, diarrhea, malaria and out-of-pocket expenditure were under-explored; while chronic non-communicable diseases were not directly covered by any DSF programs. DSF could reduce HIV prevalence and child deaths, and enhance nutritional and growth status of children. The direction and magnitude of their effects on health status was elastic to the evaluation design employed. On health system benefits, despite prioritizing on vulnerable groups, DSF's substantial effect on the poorest of the poor was mixed compared to that on the relatively richer groups. Though DSF initiatives intended to improve service delivery status, many could not optimally do so, especially to meet the additionally generated demand for care. Causal pathways of DSF's effects should be explored in-depth for mid-course corrections and cross-country learning on their design, implementation and evaluation. More policy-specific analyses on LMPs are needed to assess how 'multi-sectoral' approaches can be cost-effective and sustainable in the long run compared to 'health exclusive' incentives.

How many infants likely died in Africa as a result of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis?

The human consequences of the recent global financial crisis for the developing world are presumed to be severe, but few studies have quantified them. This letter estimates the human cost of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis in one critical dimension-infant mortality-for countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The analysis pools birth-level data, as reported in female adult retrospective birth histories from all Demographic and Health Surveys collected in sub-Saharan Africa. This results in a data set of 639,000 births to 264,000 women in 30 countries. We use regression models with flexible controls for temporal trends to assess an infant's likelihood of death as a function of fluctuations in national income. We then calculate the expected number of excess deaths by combining these estimates with growth shortfalls as a result of the crisis. The results suggest 28,000-50,000 excess infant deaths in sub-Saharan Africa in the crisis-affected year of 2009. Notably, most of these additional deaths were concentrated among girls. Policies that protect the income of poor households and that maintain critical health services during times of economic contraction may reduce the expected increase in mortality. Interventions targeted at female infants and young girls can be particularly beneficial.

Psychological Health Before, During, and After an Economic Crisis: Results from Indonesia, 1993 - 2000.

The 1997 Indonesian financial crisis resulted in severe economic dislocation and political upheaval, and the detrimental consequences for economic welfare, physical health, and child education have been established in several studies. The crisis also adversely impacted the psychological well-being of the Indonesian population. Comparing responses of the same individuals interviewed before and after the crisis, we document substantial increases in several different dimensions of psychological distress among male and female adults across the entire age distribution. In addition, the imprint of the crisis can be seen in the differential impacts of the crisis on low education groups, the rural landless, and residents in those provinces that were most affected by the crisis. Elevated levels of psychological distress persist even after indicators of economic well-being such as household consumption had returned to pre-crisis levels, suggesting the deleterious effects of the crisis on the psychological well-being of the Indonesian population may be longer lasting than the impacts on economic well-being.

Household income and expenditure surveys: a tool for accelerating the development of evidence-based fortification programs.

BACKGROUND: One-third of the world's population suffers from micronutrient deficiencies due primarily to inadequate dietary intake. Food fortification is often touted as the most promising short- to medium-term strategy for combating these deficiencies. Despite its appealing characteristics, progress in fortification has been slow. OBJECTIVE: To assess the potential of household food-purchase data to fill the food-consumption information gap, which has been an important factor contributing to the slow growth of fortification programs. METHODS: Household income and expenditure survey (HIES) data about: (a) a population's distribution of apparent household consumption, which are essential to setting safe fortification levels, (b) the proportion of households purchasing "fortifiable" food, and (c) the quantity of food being purchased were used to proxy food-consumption data and develop suggested fortification levels. RESULTS: The usefulness of the approach in addressing several common fortification program design issues is demonstrated. HIES-based suggested fortification levels are juxtaposed with ones developed using the most common current approach, which relies upon Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Food Balance Sheets. CONCLUSIONS: Despite its limitations, the use of HIES data constitutes a generally unexploited opportunity to address the food-consumption information gap by using survey data that nearly every country of the world is already routinely collecting. HIES data enable the design of fortification programs to become more based on country-specific data and less on general rules of thumb. The more routine use of HIES data constitutes a first step in improving the precision of fortification feasibility analyses and improving estimates of the coverage, costs, and impact of fortification programs.

Mental health and poverty in developing countries: revisiting the relationship.

The relationship between poverty and mental health has received considerable attention in the recent literature. However, the associations presented in existing studies typically rely on limited samples of individuals and on proxy indicators for poverty such as education, the lack of tap water, or being unemployed. We revisit the relationship between poverty and mental health using data from nationally representative household surveys in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Indonesia and Mexico, along with special surveys from India and Tonga. As in previous studies, we find that individuals who are older, female, widowed, and in poor health are more likely to report worse mental health outcomes. Individuals living with others with poor mental health are significantly more likely to report worse mental health themselves. The size of the coefficients and their significance are comparable across the five countries. In contrast to previous studies, the relationship between higher education and better mental health is weak or non-existent. Furthermore, there is no consistent association between consumption poverty and mental health - in two countries mental health measures are marginally worse for the poor; in two countries there is no association; and in one country mental health measures are better for the poor compared to the non-poor. Moreover, the sizes of the coefficients for both education and consumption poverty are small compared to other factors considered here. While the lack of an association between consumption poverty and mental health implies that poor mental health is not a "disease of affluence", neither is it a disease of poverty. Changes in life circumstances brought on, for instance, by illness may have a greater impact on mental health than levels of poverty. Effective public health policy for mental health should focus on protecting individuals and households from adverse events and on targeted interventions following such adverse changes.