Sociopolitical Diagnostic Tools to Understand National and Local Response Capabilities and Vulnerabilities to Epidemics and Guide Research into How to Improve the Global Response to Pathogens.

The AIDS and COVID-19 pandemics demonstrated that nations at similar economic development levels varied widely in their capacity to protect the health of their residents. For AIDS, Britain and Australia brought gay representatives into official counsels and adopted harm reduction far more rapidly than the United States or Spain, and East African countries responded more effectively than South Africa or the Democratic Republic of the Congo. National responses to COVID-19 varied widely, with New Zealand, China, and Vietnam more effective than Italy, Brazil, or the United States. Further, as phylogenetic research has demonstrated, these pandemics spread from one country to another, with those that responded poorly acting as sources for mutations and potentially sources of transmission to countries with more effective responses. Many observers expressed surprise at the poor responses of the United States to COVID-19, but in retrospect the cutbacks in public health funding at state and national levels made it clear that this was a predictable weakness even in addition to the political vacillations that crippled the US and Brazilian responses. In a time of global sociopolitical and climate instability, it is important to measure and conduct research into spatial and time variations in 1. public health and medical funding, 2. social influence networks, social cohesion and trust, and stigmatization, 3. income inequality, 4. social conflict, and 5. other factors that affect responsiveness to pandemics.

Trajectories of and disparities in HIV prevalence among Black, white, and Hispanic/Latino men who have sex with men in 86 large U.S. metropolitan statistical areas, 1992-2013.

PURPOSE: The challenges of producing adequate estimates of HIV prevalence among men who have sex with men (MSM) are well known. No one, to our knowledge, has published annual estimates of HIV prevalence among MSM over an extended period and across a wide range of geographic areas. METHODS: This article applies multilevel modeling to data integrated from numerous sources to estimate and validate trajectories of HIV prevalence among MSM from 1992 to 2013 for 86 of the largest metropolitan statistical areas in the United States. RESULTS: Our estimates indicate that HIV prevalence among MSM increased, from an across-metropolitan statistical area mean of 11% in 1992 to 20% in 2013 (S.D. = 3.5%). Our estimates by racial/ethnic subgroups of MSM suggest higher mean HIV prevalence among black and Hispanic/Latino MSM than among white MSM across all years and geographic regions. CONCLUSIONS: The increases found in HIV prevalence among all MSM are likely primarily attributable to decreases in mortality and perhaps also to increasing HIV incidence among racial/ethnic minority MSM. Future research is needed to confirm this. If true, health care initiatives should focus on targeted HIV prevention efforts among racial/ethnic minority MSM and on training providers to address cross-cutting health challenges of increased longevity among HIV-positive MSM.

Comparison of effectiveness and cost for different HIV screening strategies implemented at large urban medical centre in the United States.

INTRODUCTION: Incident HIV infections persist in the United States (U.S.) among marginalized populations. Targeted and cost-efficient testing strategies can help in reaching HIV elimination. This analysis compares the effectiveness and cost of three HIV testing strategies in a high HIV burden area in the U.S. in identifying new HIV infections. METHODS: We performed a cost analysis comparing three HIV testing strategies in Chicago: (1) routine screening (RS) in an inpatient and outpatient setting, (2) modified partner services (MPS) among networks of the recently HIV infected and diagnosed, and (3) a respondent drive sampling (RDS)-based social network (SN) approach targeting young African-American men who have sex with men. All occurred at the same academic medical centre during the following times: routine testing, 2011 to 2016; MPS, 2013 to 2016; SN: 2013 to 2014. Costs were in 2016 dollars and included personnel, HIV testing, training, materials, overhead. Outcomes included cost per test, HIV-positive test and new diagnosis. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the impact of population demographics. RESULTS: The RS programme completed 57,308 HIV tests resulting in 360 (0.6%) HIV-positive tests and 165 new HIV diagnoses (0.28%). The MPS completed 146 HIV tests, resulting in 79 (54%) HIV-positive tests and eight new HIV diagnoses (5%). The SN strategy completed 508 HIV tests, resulting in 210 (41%) HIV-positive tests and 37 new HIV diagnoses (7.2%). Labour accounted for the majority of costs in all strategies. The estimated cost per new HIV diagnosis was $16,773 for the RS programme, $61,418 for the MPS programme and $15,683 for the SN testing programme. These costs were reduced for the RS and MPS strategies in sensitivity analyses limiting testing efficacy to the highest prevalence patient populations ($2,841 and $33,233 respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The SN strategy yielded the highest proportion of new diagnoses, followed closely by the MPS programme. Both the SN strategy and RS programme were comparable in the cost per new diagnosis. A simultaneous approach that consists of RS in combination with SN testing may be most effective for identifying new HIV infections in settings with heterogeneous epidemics with both high rates of HIV prevalence and HIV testing.

Trends in State Policy Support for Sexual Minorities and HIV-Related Outcomes Among Men Who Have Sex With Men in the United States, 2008-2014.

BACKGROUND: To examine trends in state-level policy support for sexual minorities and HIV outcomes among men who have sex with men (MSM). METHODS: This longitudinal analysis linked state-level policy support for sexual minorities [N = 94 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in 38 states] to 7 years of data (2008-2014) from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on HIV outcomes among MSM. Using latent growth mixture modeling, we combined 11 state-level policies (eg, nondiscrimination laws including sexual orientation as a protected class) from 1999 to 2014, deriving the following 3 latent groups: consistently low policy support, consistently high policy support, and increasing trajectory of policy support. Outcomes were HIV diagnoses per 10,000 MSM, late diagnoses (number of deaths within 12 months of HIV diagnosis and AIDS diagnoses within 3 months of HIV diagnosis) per 10,000 MSM, AIDS diagnoses per 10,000 MSM with HIV, and AIDS-related mortality per 10,000 MSM with AIDS. RESULTS: Compared with MSAs in states with low policy support and increasing policy support for sexual minorities, MSAs in states with the highest level of policy support had lower risks of HIV diagnoses [risk difference (RD) = -37.9, 95% confidence interval (CI): -54.7 to -21.0], late diagnoses (RD = -12.5, 95% CI: -20.4 to -4.7), and AIDS-related mortality (RD = -33.7, 95% CI: -61.2 to -6.2), controlling for time and 7 MSA-level covariates. In low policy support states, 27% of HIV diagnoses, 21% of late diagnoses, and 10% of AIDS deaths among MSM were attributable to the policy climate. CONCLUSION: The state-level policy climate related to sexual minorities was associated with HIV health outcomes among MSM and could be a potential public health tool for HIV prevention and care.

Predictors of historical change in drug treatment coverage among people who inject drugs in 90 large metropolitan areas in the USA, 1993-2007.

BACKGROUND: Adequate access to effective treatment and medication assisted therapies for opioid dependence has led to improved antiretroviral therapy adherence and decreases in morbidity among people who inject drugs (PWID), and can also address a broad range of social and public health problems. However, even with the success of syringe service programs and opioid substitution programs in European countries (and others) the US remains historically low in terms of coverage and access with regard to these programs. This manuscript investigates predictors of historical change in drug treatment coverage for PWID in 90 US metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) during 1993-2007, a period in which, overall coverage did not change. METHODS: Drug treatment coverage was measured as the number of PWID in drug treatment, as calculated by treatment entry and census data, divided by numbers of PWID in each MSA. Variables suggested by the Theory of Community Action (i.e., need, resource availability, institutional opposition, organized support, and service symbiosis) were analyzed using mixed-effects multivariate models within dependent variables lagged in time to study predictors of later change in coverage. RESULTS: Mean coverage was low in 1993 (6.7%; SD 3.7), and did not increase by 2007 (6.4%; SD 4.5). Multivariate results indicate that increases in baseline unemployment rate (ß = 0.312; pseudo-p < 0.0002) predict significantly higher treatment coverage; baseline poverty rate (ß = - 0.486; pseudo-p < 0.0001), and baseline size of public health and social work workforce (ß = 0.425; pseudo-p < 0.0001) were predictors of later mean coverage levels, and baseline HIV prevalence among PWID predicted variation in treatment coverage trajectories over time (baseline HIV * Time: ß = 0.039; pseudo-p < 0.001). Finally, increases in black/white poverty disparity from baseline predicted significantly higher treatment coverage in MSAs (ß = 1.269; pseudo-p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: While harm reduction programs have historically been contested and difficult to implement in many US communities, and despite efforts to increase treatment coverage for PWID, coverage has not increased. Contrary to our hypothesis, epidemiologic need, seems not to be associated with change in treatment coverage over time. Resource availability and institutional opposition are important predictors of change over time in coverage. These findings suggest that new ways have to be found to increase drug treatment coverage in spite of economic changes and belt-tightening policy changes that will make this difficult.

Mortgage Discrimination and Racial/Ethnic Concentration Are Associated with Same-Race/Ethnicity Partnering among People Who Inject Drugs in 19 US Cities.

Racial/ethnic homophily in sexual partnerships (partners share the same race/ethnicity) has been associated with racial/ethnic disparities in HIV. Structural racism may partly determine racial/ethnic homophily in sexual partnerships. This study estimated associations of racial/ethnic concentration and mortgage discrimination against Black and Latino residents with racial/ethnic homophily in sexual partnerships among 7847 people who inject drugs (PWID) recruited from 19 US cities to participate in CDC's National HIV Behavioral Surveillance. Racial/ethnic concentration was defined by two measures that respectively compared ZIP code-level concentrations of Black residents to White residents and Latino residents to White residents, using the Index of Concentration at the Extremes. Mortgage discrimination was defined by two measures that respectively compared county-level mortgage loan denial among Black applicants to White applicants and mortgage loan denial among Latino applicants to White applicants, with similar characteristics (e.g., income, loan amount). Multilevel logistic regression models were used to estimate associations. Interactions of race/ethnicity with measures of racial/ethnic concentration and mortgage discrimination were added to the final multivariable model and decomposed into race/ethnicity-specific estimates. In the final multivariable model, among Black PWID, living in ZIP codes with higher concentrations of Black vs. White residents and counties with higher mortgage discrimination against Black residents was associated with higher odds of homophily. Living in counties with higher mortgage discrimination against Latino residents was associated with lower odds of homophily among Black PWID. Among Latino PWID, living in ZIP codes with higher concentrations of Latino vs. White residents and counties with higher mortgage discrimination against Latino residents was associated with higher odds of homophily. Living in counties with higher mortgage discrimination against Black residents was associated with lower odds of homophily among Latino PWID. Among White PWID, living in ZIP codes with higher concentrations of Black or Latino residents vs. White residents was associated with lower odds of homophily, but living in counties with higher mortgage discrimination against Black residents was associated with higher odds of homophily. Racial/ethnic segregation may partly drive same race/ethnicity sexual partnering among PWID. Future empirical evidence linking these associations directly or indirectly (via place-level mediators) to HIV/STI transmission will determine how eliminating discriminatory housing policies impact HIV/STI transmission.

Social network approaches to locating people recently infected with HIV in Odessa, Ukraine.

INTRODUCTION: This paper examines the extent to which an intervention succeeded in locating people who had recently become infected with HIV in the context of the large-scale Ukrainian epidemic. Locating and intervening with people who recently became infected with HIV (people with recent infection, or PwRI) can reduce forward HIV transmission and help PwRI remain healthy. METHODS: The Transmission Reduction Intervention Project (TRIP) recruited recently-infected and longer-term infected seeds in Odessa, Ukraine, in 2013 to 2016, and asked them to help recruit their extended risk network members. The proportions of network members who were PwRI were compared between TRIP arms (i.e. networks of recently-infected seeds vs. networks of longer-term infected seeds) and to the proportion of participants who were PwRI in an RDS-based Integrated Biobehavioral Surveillance of people who inject drugs in 2013. RESULTS: The networks of PwRI seeds and those of longer-term infected seeds had similar (2%) proportions who were themselves PwRI. This was higher than the 0.25% proportion in IBBS (OR = 7.80; p = 0.016). The odds ratio among the subset of participants who injected drugs was 11.17 (p = 0.003). Cost comparison analyses using simplified ingredients-based methods found that TRIP spent no more than US $4513 per PwRI located whereas IBBS spent $11,924. CONCLUSIONS: Further research is needed to confirm these results and improve TRIP further, but our findings suggest that interventions that trace the networks of people who test HIV-positive are a cost-effective way to locate PwRI and reduce HIV transmission and should therefore be implemented.

Identifying Which Place Characteristics are Associated with the Odds of Recent HIV Testing in a Large Sample of People Who Inject Drugs in 19 US Metropolitan Areas.

This exploratory analysis investigates relationships of place characteristics to HIV testing among people who inject drugs (PWID). We used CDC's 2012 National HIV Behavioral Surveillance (NHBS) data among PWID from 19 US metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs); we restricted the analytic sample to PWID self-reporting being HIV negative (N = 7477). Administrative data were analyzed to describe the 1. Sociodemographic Composition; 2. Economic disadvantage; 3. Healthcare Service/Law enforcement; and 4. HIV burden of the ZIP codes, counties, and MSAs where PWID lived. Multilevel models tested associations of place characteristics with HIV testing. Fifty-eight percent of PWID reported past-year testing. MSA-level per capita correctional expenditures were positively associated with recent HIV testing among black PWID, but not white PWID. Higher MSA-level household income and imbalanced sex ratios (more women than men) in the MSA were associated with higher odds of testing. HIV screening for PWID is suboptimal (58%) and needs improvement. Identifying place characteristics associated with testing among PWID can strengthen service allocation and interventions in areas of need to increase access to HIV testing.

Change and variability in drug treatment coverage among people who inject drugs in 90 large metropolitan areas in the USA, 1993-2007.

BACKGROUND: Our previous research has found low and stable mean drug treatment coverage among people who inject drugs (PWID) across 90 large US metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) during 1993-2002. This manuscript updates previous estimates of change in drug treatment coverage for PWID in 90 MSAs during 1993-2007. METHODS: Our drug treatment sample for calculating treatment coverage includes clients enrolled in residential or ambulatory inpatient/outpatient care, detoxification services, and methadone maintenance therapy at publicly- and privately-funded substance abuse agencies receiving public funds. Coverage was measured as the number of PWID in drug treatment, calculated by using data from the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Service Administration, divided by numbers of PWID in each MSA. We modeled change in drug treatment coverage rates using a negative binomial mixed-effects model. Fixed-effects included an intercept and a main effect for time. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) were calculated for both average change from 1993 to 2007 and MSA-specific estimates of change in coverage rates. RESULTS: On average over all MSAs, coverage was low in 1993 (6.1%) and showed no improvement from 1993 to 2007 (IRR = 0.99; 95% CI, 0.86, 1.2). There was modest variability across MSAs in coverage in 1993 (log incidence rate SD = 0.36) as well as in coverage change from 1993 to 2007 (log IRR SD = 0.32). In addition, results indicate significant variability among MSAs in coverage. CONCLUSIONS: Inadequate treatment coverage for PWID may produce a high cost to society in terms of the spread of overdose mortality and injection-related infectious diseases. A greater investment in treatment will likely be needed to have a substantial and more consistent impact on injection drug use-related harms. Future research should examine MSA-level predictors associated with variability in drug treatment coverage.

Income inequality, drug-related arrests, and the health of people who inject drugs: Reflections on seventeen years of research.

This paper reviews and then discusses selected findings from a seventeen year study about the population prevalence of people who inject drugs (PWID) and of HIV prevalence and mortality among PWID in 96 large US metropolitan areas. Unlike most research, this study was conducted with the metropolitan area as the level of analysis. It found that metropolitan area measures of income inequality and of structural racism predicted all of these outcomes, and that rates of arrest for heroin and/or cocaine predicted HIV prevalence and mortality but did not predict changes in PWID population prevalence. Income inequality and measures of structural racism were associated with hard drug arrests or other properties of policing. These findings, whose limitations and implications for further research are discussed, suggest that efforts to respond to HIV and to drug injection should include supra-individual efforts to reduce both income inequality and racism. At a time when major social movements in many countries are trying to reduce inequality, racism and oppression (including reforming drug laws), these macro-social issues in public health should be both addressable and a priority in both research and action.

Contextual Predictors of Injection Drug Use Among Black Adolescents and Adults in US Metropolitan Areas, 1993-2007.

OBJECTIVES: We sought to determine whether contextual factors shape injection drug use among Black adolescents and adults. METHODS: For this longitudinal study of 95 US metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), we drew annual MSA-specific estimates of the prevalence of injection drug use (IDU) among Black adolescents and adults in 1993 through 2007 from 3 surveillance databases. We used existing administrative data to measure MSA-level socioeconomic status; criminal justice activities; expenditures on social welfare, health, and policing; and histories of Black uprisings (1960-1969) and urban renewal funding (1949-1974). We regressed Black IDU prevalence on these predictors by using hierarchical linear models. RESULTS: Black IDU prevalence was lower in MSAs with declining Black high-school dropout rates, a history of Black uprisings, higher percentages of Black residents, and, in MSAs where 1992 White income was high, higher 1992 Black income. Incarceration rates were unrelated. CONCLUSIONS: Contextual factors shape patterns of drug use among Black individuals. Structural interventions, especially those that improve Black socioeconomic security and political strength, may help reduce IDU among Black adolescents and adults.

Racialized risk environments in a large sample of people who inject drugs in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Substantial racial/ethnic disparities exist in HIV infection among people who inject drugs (PWID) in many countries. To strengthen efforts to understand the causes of disparities in HIV-related outcomes and eliminate them, we expand the "Risk Environment Model" to encompass the construct "racialized risk environments," and investigate whether PWID risk environments in the United States are racialized. Specifically, we investigate whether black and Latino PWID are more likely than white PWID to live in places that create vulnerability to adverse HIV-related outcomes. METHODS: As part of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National HIV Behavioral Surveillance, 9170 PWID were sampled from 19 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in 2009. Self-reported data were used to ascertain PWID race/ethnicity. Using Census data and other administrative sources, we characterized features of PWID risk environments at four geographic scales (i.e., ZIP codes, counties, MSAs, and states). Means for each feature of the risk environment were computed for each racial/ethnic group of PWID, and were compared across racial/ethnic groups. RESULTS: Almost universally across measures, black PWID were more likely than white PWID to live in environments associated with vulnerability to adverse HIV-related outcomes. Compared to white PWID, black PWID lived in ZIP codes with higher poverty rates and worse spatial access to substance abuse treatment and in counties with higher violent crime rates. Black PWID were less likely to live in states with laws facilitating sterile syringe access (e.g., laws permitting over-the-counter syringe sales). Latino/white differences in risk environments emerged at the MSA level (e.g., Latino PWID lived in MSAs with higher drug-related arrest rates). CONCLUSION: PWID risk environments in the US are racialized. Future research should explore the implications of this racialization for racial/ethnic disparities in HIV-related outcomes, using appropriate methods.

National income inequality and declining GDP growth rates are associated with increases in HIV diagnoses among people who inject drugs in Europe: a panel data analysis.

BACKGROUND: There is sparse evidence that demonstrates the association between macro-environmental processes and drug-related HIV epidemics. The present study explores the relationship between economic, socio-economic, policy and structural indicators, and increases in reported HIV infections among people who inject drugs (PWID) in the European Economic Area (EEA). METHODS: We used panel data (2003-2012) for 30 EEA countries. Statistical analyses included logistic regression models. The dependent variable was taking value 1 if there was an outbreak (significant increase in the national rate of HIV diagnoses in PWID) and 0 otherwise. Explanatory variables included the growth rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the share of the population that is at risk for poverty, the unemployment rate, the Eurostat S80/S20 ratio, the Gini coefficient, the per capita government expenditure on health and social protection, and variables on drug control policy and drug-using population sizes. Lags of one to three years were investigated. FINDINGS: In multivariable analyses, using two-year lagged values, we found that a 1% increase of GDP was associated with approximately 30% reduction in the odds of an HIV outbreak. In GDP-adjusted analyses with three-year lagged values, the effect of the national income inequality on the likelihood of an HIV outbreak was significant [S80/S20 Odds Ratio (OR) = 3.89; 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.15 to 13.13]. Generally, the multivariable analyses produced similar results across three time lags tested. INTERPRETATION: Given the limitations of ecological research, we found that declining economic growth and increasing national income inequality were associated with an elevated probability of a large increase in the number of HIV diagnoses among PWID in EEA countries during the last decade. HIV prevention may be more effective if developed within national and European-level policy contexts that promote income equality, especially among vulnerable groups.

Economic recession and emergence of an HIV-1 outbreak among drug injectors in Athens metropolitan area: a longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: During 2011, a dramatic increase (1600%) of reported HIV-1 infections among injecting drug users (IDUs) was noted in Athens, Greece. We herein assess the potential causal pathways associated with this outbreak. METHODS: Our study employed high resolution HIV-1 phylogenetic and phylogeographic analyses. We examined also longitudinal data of ecological variables such as the annual growth of gross domestic product (GDP) of Greece in association with HIV-1 and HCV sentinel prevalence in IDUs, unemployment and homelessness rates and HIV transmission networks in Athens IDUs before and during economic recession (2008-2012). RESULTS: IDU isolates sampled in 2011 and 2012 suggested transmission networks in 94.6% and 92.7% of the cases in striking contrast with the sporadic networking (5%) during 1998-2009. The geographic origin of most HIV-1 isolates was consistent with the recently documented migratory waves in Greece. The decline in GDP was inversely correlated with annual prevalence rates of HIV and HCV and with unemployment and homelessness rates in IDUs (all p<0.001). The slope of anti-HCV prevalence in the sentinel populations of IDUs and in "new" drug injectors was found 120 and 1.9-fold (p = 0.007, p = 0.08 respectively) higher in 2008-2012 (economic recession) compared with 2002-2006. The median (25th, 75th) size of transmission networks were 34 (12, 58) and 2 (2, 2) (p = 0.057) in 2008-2012 and 1998-2007, respectively. The coverage of harm reduction services was low throughout the study period. CONCLUSIONS: Scaling-up harm reduction services and addressing social and structural factors related to the current economic crisis should be urgently considered in environments where HIV-1 outbreaks may occur.

Theory, measurement and hard times: some issues for HIV/AIDS research.

Economic and political instability and related "big events" are widespread throughout the globe. Although they sometimes lead to epidemic HIV outbreaks, sometimes they do not-and we do not understand why. Current behavioural theories do not adequately address these processes, and thus cannot provide optimal guidance for effective intervention. Based in part on a critique of our prior "pathways" model of big events, we suggest that cultural-historical activity theory (CHAT) may provide a useful framework for HIV research in this area. Using CHAT concepts, we also suggest a number of areas in which new measures should be developed to make such research possible.

Resilience among IDUs: planning strategies to help injection drug users to protect themselves and others from HIV/HCV infections.

Many long-term injection drug users (IDUs) engage in planning strategies. In this pilot study, we examine the relation of one planning strategy to IDUs' engaging in safer injection practices. Sixty-eight IDUs were recruited in 2010 from a New York City (NYC) needle exchange program and referrals to participate in an innovative Staying Safe Intervention that teaches strategies to stay HIV/HCV uninfected. Responses to a baseline 185-item survey were analyzed using correlations and odds ratios. Planning ahead to have steady access to clean equipment was correlated with both individually based and networks-based safety behaviors including storing clean needles; avoiding sharing needles, cookers, and filters with other injectors; and providing clean needles to sex partners. Implications related to resilience in IDUs are discussed and the study's limitations have been noted.

Spatial access to sterile syringes and the odds of injecting with an unsterile syringe among injectors: a longitudinal multilevel study.

Despite the 2010 repeal of the ban on spending federal monies to fund syringe exchange programs (SEPs) in the U.S.A., these interventions--and specifically SEP site locations--remain controversial. To further inform discussions about the location of SEP sites, this longitudinal multilevel study investigates the relationship between spatial access to sterile syringes distributed by SEPs in New York City (NYC) United Hospital Fund (UHF) districts and injecting with an unsterile syringe among injectors over time (1995-2006). Annual measures of spatial access to syringes in each UHF district (N = 42) were created using data on SEP site locations and site-specific syringe distribution data. Individual-level data on unsterile injecting among injectors (N = 4,067) living in these districts, and on individual-level covariates, were drawn from the Risk Factors study, an ongoing cross-sectional study of NYC drug users. We used multilevel models to explore the relationship of district-level access to syringes to the odds of injecting with an unsterile syringe in >75% of injection events in the past 6 months, and to test whether this relationship varied by district-level arrest rates (per 1,000 residents) for drug and drug paraphernalia possession. The relationship between district-level access to syringes and the odds of injecting with an unsterile syringe depended on district-level arrest rates. In districts with low baseline arrest rates, better syringe access was associated with a decline in the odds of frequently injecting with an unsterile syringe (AOR, 0.95). In districts with no baseline syringe access, higher arrest rates were associated with increased odds of frequently injecting with an unsterile syringe (AOR, 1.02) When both interventions were present, arrest rates eroded the protective effects of spatial access to syringes. Spatial access to syringes in small geographic areas appears to reduce the odds of injecting with an unsterile syringe among local injectors, and arrest rates elevate these odds. Policies and practices that curtail syringe flow in geographic areas (e.g., restrictions on SEP locations or syringe distribution) or that make it difficult for injectors to use the sterile syringes they have acquired may damage local injectors' efforts to reduce HIV transmission and other injection-related harms.

Statewide estimation of racial/ethnic populations of men who have sex with men in the U.S.

OBJECTIVES: Men who have sex with men (MSM) bear the greatest burden of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in every state in the U.S., but their populations are poorly defined. We estimated and compared populations of MSM in 2007 by region, state, and race/ethnicity. METHODS: We averaged findings from two statistical models we had previously developed to estimate the total state-specific percentage and number of males who were MSM. The models were based, respectively, on state-specific rural/ suburban/urban characteristics and an index using state-specific household census data on same-sex male unmarried partners. A third model, based on racial/ethnic ratios from a nationally representative behavioral survey, partitioned these statewide numbers by race/ethnicity. RESULTS: Of an estimated 7.1 million MSM residing in the U.S. in 2007, 71.4% (5.1 million) were white, 15.9% (1.1 million) were Hispanic, 8.9% (635,000) were black, 2.7% (191,000) were Asian, 0.4% (26,000) were American Indian/Alaska Native, 0.1% (6,000) were Native Hawaiian/other Pacific Islander, and 0.6% (41,000) were of multiple/unknown race/ethnicity. The overall U.S. percentage of males who were MSM (6.4%) varied from 3.3% in South Dakota to 13.2% in the District of Columbia, which we treated as a state. Estimated numbers of MSM ranged from 9,612 in Wyoming to 1,104,805 in California. CONCLUSIONS: Plausible estimates of MSM populations by state and race/ethnicity can inform and guide HIV/AIDS surveillance, allocation of resources, and advocacy. They can help in the planning, implementation, and evaluation of HIV prevention programs and other services. Using MSM numbers as denominators, estimates of population-based MSM HIV incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates could help clarify national and state-level epidemic dynamics. Until corroborated by other modeling and/or empirical research, these estimates should be used with caution.