Probabilistic modelling techniques in dietary exposure assessment: application on the risk assessment of cadmium for Austrian adults.

Probabilistic exposure and risk assessment of chemical hazards in the diet have increasingly gained ground in recent years as a pragmatic approach for the approximation of reality. This work presents the outcomes of a project which aimed at applying probabilistic techniques for basic modelling of chronic dietary exposure to food contaminants following EFSA guidance. These techniques, based on Monte Carlo Risk Assessment (MCRA) software and on the programming language R, were employed for the risk assessment of cadmium for Austrian adults, enabling the validation and the critical comparison of the two approaches. Harmonisation and optimisation of procedures, refinement of exposure assessment skills and confidence in the results were the main benefits. Data amount and validity were identified as critical parameters, influencing the precision of the results. Cadmium was selected as a case study due to its toxicological properties, its ubiquitous presence in food and the availability of Austrian occurrence data. Similar exposure and risk estimates were generated through MCRA and R in alternative optimistic and pessimistic exposure scenarios, suggesting low levels of concern, except for vegetarians, whose upper tail exposures are close to the established Tolerable Weekly Intake. However, as occurrence data gaps have been identified as the major element of uncertainty, the estimated exposure and risk levels are characterised as underestimated. Grains and grain-based products, potatoes and leafy vegetables are the main contributors to the intake. The results will contribute to risk management and to a future refinement of the assessment.

Toxicological approaches for the quantitative inhalation risk assessment of toxic metals from tobacco smoke: application on the deterministic and probabilistic inhalation risk assessment of cadmium for Austrian smokers.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was the assessment of risks from inhalation exposure of Austrian smokers to cadmium through established toxicological approaches with emphasis on the exposure assessment component, which is challenging regarding the actual amount of metal that is inhaled and the simulation of the smoking pattern. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Exposure assessment comprised an estimation of the proportion of cadmium inhaled through smoking and actual occurrence data in tobacco products and survey smoking habits, which were integrated in alternative scenarios through a deterministic and a probabilistic Monte Carlo simulation method. Risks were characterized through the comparison of the exposure with health-based guidance values, as well as through the assessment of the excess lifetime cancer risk (ELCR), the non-cancer hazard quotient (NCHQ), and the margin of exposure (MOE). The strengths, the uncertainties, and the limitations of the different methodologies were discussed. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Upper exposures are close or exceed the Permitted Daily Exposure. Respiratory ELCRs are unacceptable compared to the benchmark range of 1.0E-06 to 1.0E-04. Renal and respiratory NCHQs exceed the target value of 1.0 by 3- to 17-fold. MOEs are not protective enough for cancer and non-cancer effects. The amount of cadmium that reaches the lung is a key source of uncertainty. CONCLUSION: Probabilistic estimates provide a refined capture of the actual inhalation exposure. Risk estimates and gender and age profiles are alarming, especially for young smokers. Application of toxicological approaches, combined with realistic assessment of the inhalation exposure levels, can support risk communication and management.

Probabilistic risk assessment of nitrates for Austrian adults and estimation of the magnitude of their conversion into nitrites.

Nitrates occur in food naturally, as contaminants or additives. The health implications attributed to ingested nitrates result primarily from their conversion into nitrites and subsequent methemoglobinemia, carcinogenicity induced by N-nitroso-compounds and cardiovascular, endocrine, metabolic, reproductive and developmental effects. The present study comprises a probabilistic tiered risk assessment of nitrates for Austrian adults through the diet with the application of the Monte Carlo simulation method in alternative optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. Risk estimates are of concern regarding the upper exposures, which exceed the Acceptable Daily Intake (ADI) in almost all scenarios and population groups. Exposure is elevated when all dietary sources are considered and the ADI is exceeded by already the mean intake for vegetarians. Leafy vegetables are major contributors to the intake. Contribution of cured meat is very low. Estimates of the conversion of nitrates into nitrites were used to assess the combined exposure to both species. When the average intake of nitrates and nitrites is considered, the mean exposure to nitrites is lower or close to the ADI for individuals with average conversion capacity. However, upper tail combined intake can lead to a multifold exceedance of the ADI of nitrites for individuals with both high and average conversion capacity.

Risk assessment of nitrites for the Austrian adult population with probabilistic modelling of the dietary exposure.

Nitrites are present in the food chain as naturally occurring species or contaminants. Additionally, sodium and potassium nitrites are authorised food additives. Nitrites exert acute toxicity through methemoglobinemia or cardiovascular effects, chronic toxicity associated with endocrine, reproductive and developmental effects and have been classified as probable gastric carcinogens. Ingestion of food and water are the main sources of human exposure. This study comprises a tiered risk assessment of nitrites for the Austrian adult population, along with the identification of the food categories most contributing to their intake. The dietary exposure, based on Austrian occurrence and consumption data, was modelled with the Monte Carlo simulation method. In an additional scenario, data gaps were addressed with the usage of occurrence data published by the European Food Safety Authority and from the available literature to account for the exposure from all sources. Risk estimates regarding only the exposure to nitrite additives and to contaminated water indicate low level of concern. However, when exposure from all sources is considered, the estimated exposure is elevated and exceeds the Acceptable Daily Intake for high consumers. Mean exposure attributed to the use of nitrites as additives accounts for only a very small proportion of the total intake.

A spatial assessment of Culicoides spp. distribution and bluetongue disease risk areas in Austria.

Bluetongue disease (BT) was introduced into Central Europe in the summer of 2006 and has since affected most European countries. In this study we analysed the distribution of the biting midge vector Culicoides spp. in Austria and modelled Bluetongue disease risk zones. Culicoides spp. abundance data was collected from weekly catches of 14 months from 54 trapping locations. The corresponding weather data mean temperature (p < 0.001), wind (p < 0.001), relative humidity (p = 0.019) and altitude (p = 0.059) were identified as predictors on Culicoides spp. distribution in a regression model (R 2.8.0). The majority of catches were detected at temperatures above 10 degrees C and at relative humidities between 65-80%. The point data of these parameters originating from 186 meteorological stations were interpolated using the Geostatistical Analyst Kriging tool (ESRI ArcGIS 9.3). To create seasonal risk maps we overlaid regions with optimal temperature and humidity conditions with domestic ruminants density data. Our results show that the summer season holds the greatest risk of a BT epidemic with 25.9% of the analysed area providing optimal conditions for vector abundance and 12.4% showing contact risk with ruminant hosts. This project (1) provides fundamental data on the Culicoides spp. distribution in Austria, (2) determines limiting climatic parameters on vector abundance and (3) identifies risk areas by including areas of possible host-parasite-interactions. These high-risk areas can subsequently be given special attention for precautionary monitoring and surveillance measures.

The potential of measuring serum amyloid A in individual ewe milk and in farm bulk milk for monitoring udder health on sheep dairy farms.

The aim of the study was to determine the diagnostic value of measuring serum amyloid A (SAA) concentrations in milk of individual ewes and in farm bulk milk for monitoring udder health. Udder health was calculated by examining a randomly selected group of seven flocks at each farm visit by means of California mastitis test and bacteriological examination of 5749 milk samples. SAA was determined additionally in 267 randomly selected milk samples from six flocks. Thirty-one bulk milk samples from these farms were tested for SCC and SAA levels. Subclinical infections were detected in 29.5% of samples whereas no clinical infections were observed. Intramammary infected udder halves showed significantly elevated SAA concentrations (121.3+/-25.3 microg/ml) in milk compared to the levels of healthy udder halves (8.0+/-1.9 microg/ml; p<0.001). SAA was significantly elevated in sheep with elevated CMT scores and positive bacteriological results. Bulk milk SAA levels ranged from 18.6+/-6.7 to 37.4+/-14.1 microg/ml and showed a positive correlation with bSCC (r=0.38, p=0.018) but not with percent infected glands (r=0.022, p=0.453). This study demonstrated that SAA levels in milk can be used to detect subclinical mastitis in individual ewes whereas further investigations are needed to determine the value of measuring SAA in bulk milk for monitoring flock udder health.

Concepts for risk-based surveillance in the field of veterinary medicine and veterinary public health: review of current approaches.

BACKGROUND: Emerging animal and zoonotic diseases and increasing international trade have resulted in an increased demand for veterinary surveillance systems. However, human and financial resources available to support government veterinary services are becoming more and more limited in many countries world-wide. Intuitively, issues that present higher risks merit higher priority for surveillance resources as investments will yield higher benefit-cost ratios. The rapid rate of acceptance of this core concept of risk-based surveillance has outpaced the development of its theoretical and practical bases. DISCUSSION: The principal objectives of risk-based veterinary surveillance are to identify surveillance needs to protect the health of livestock and consumers, to set priorities, and to allocate resources effectively and efficiently. An important goal is to achieve a higher benefit-cost ratio with existing or reduced resources. We propose to define risk-based surveillance systems as those that apply risk assessment methods in different steps of traditional surveillance design for early detection and management of diseases or hazards. In risk-based designs, public health, economic and trade consequences of diseases play an important role in selection of diseases or hazards. Furthermore, certain strata of the population of interest have a higher probability to be sampled for detection of diseases or hazards. Evaluation of risk-based surveillance systems shall prove that the efficacy of risk-based systems is equal or higher than traditional systems; however, the efficiency (benefit-cost ratio) shall be higher in risk-based surveillance systems. SUMMARY: Risk-based surveillance considerations are useful to support both strategic and operational decision making. This article highlights applications of risk-based surveillance systems in the veterinary field including food safety. Examples are provided for risk-based hazard selection, risk-based selection of sampling strata as well as sample size calculation based on risk considerations.