Retrospective cohort study to examine the association between serum amylase and the incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus, Toranomon Hospital Health Management Center Study 23 (TOPICS 23).

INTRODUCTION: Low serum amylase values are cross-sectionally associated with the prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) but have not been shown to be longitudinally associated with its incidence. This retrospective cohort (ie, historical cohort) study aimed to examine the association of previously lowered levels of serum amylase with incident T2DM. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Examined were 8316 individuals who had annual health examinations for 6 years (ie, 7 times) at the Toranomon Hospital Health Management Center. The trajectory of serum amylase as the study exposure was classified into two elements: (1) serum amylase level at entry and (2) change in serum amylase, which was expressed as the annual change rate. The annual change rate was calculated by dividing the change in the amylase values according to follow-up periods. Regression analyses were performed to examine the association between low and decreased levels of serum amylase and the incidence of T2DM. RESULTS: Analyzed were 6917 individuals who had not developed T2DM within 1 year after cohort entry. T2DM thereafter occurred in 1021 patients. Cox regression indicated that the adjusted HR (95% CI) for incident T2DM for amylase ≤57 IU/L (quintile (Q) 1) was 0.97 (0.84 to 1.13) compared with amylase ≥58 IU/L (Q2-Q5). Logistic regression indicated that the adjusted OR (95% CI) for an annual change rate of amylase ≤-2.0% (Q1) vs ≥-1.9% (Q2-Q5) was 3.53 (3.00 to 4.16). The adjusted ORs were consistently significant throughout sensitivity analyses according to baseline amylase and the combination of age, body mass index, and hemoglobin A1c. CONCLUSIONS: Results showed that not low but previously decreased serum amylase was a risk factor for T2DM, suggesting the significance of periodic examinations of serum amylase values to detect individuals at high risk of T2DM.

Developing a health economic model for Asians with type 2 diabetes based on the Japan Diabetes Complications Study and the Japanese Elderly Diabetes Intervention Trial.

INTRODUCTION: Cost-effectiveness analyses are becoming increasingly important in Japan following the introduction of a health technology assessment scheme. The study objective was to develop an economic model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of two interventions for type 2 diabetes in a Japanese population. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The Japan Diabetes Complications Study/Japanese Elderly Diabetes Intervention Trial risk engine (JJRE) Cost-Effectiveness Model (JJCEM) was developed, incorporating validated risk equations in Japanese patients with type 2 diabetes from the JJRE. Weibull regression models were developed for progression of the model outcomes, and a targeted literature review was performed to inform default values for utilities and costs. To illustrate outcomes, two simulated analyses were performed in younger (aged 40 years) and older (aged 80 years) Japanese populations, comparing a hypothetical treatment with placebo. RESULTS: The model considers a population based on user-defined values for 11 baseline characteristic parameters and simulates rates of diabetic complications over a defined time horizon. Costs, quality-adjusted life years, and an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio are estimated. The model provides disaggregated results for two competing interventions, allowing visualization of the key drivers of cost and utility. A scatterplot of simulations and cost-effectiveness acceptability curve are generated for each analysis. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first cost-effectiveness model for East Asian patients with type 2 diabetes, developed using Japan-specific risk equations. This population constitutes the largest share of the global population with diabetes, making this model highly relevant. The model can be used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of anti-diabetic interventions in patients with type 2 diabetes in Japan and other East Asian populations.

Impact of individual components and their combinations within a family history of hypertension on the incidence of hypertension: Toranomon hospital health management center study 22.

Although a family history (FH) of hypertension is a risk factor for the development of hypertension, only a few studies have investigated in detail the impact of individual components of an FH on incident hypertension. We investigated the impact of individual components and their combinations on the presence or development of hypertension considering obesity, smoking habits, physical activity, and other metabolic parameters.Studied were 12,222 Japanese individuals without hypertension (n = 9,766) and with hypertension (n = 2,456) at the baseline examination. The presence or incidence of hypertension during 5 years after a baseline examination was assessed by the presence of systolic blood pressure ≥140 mmHg and/or diastolic blood pressure ≥90 mmHg or a self-reported history of clinician-diagnosed hypertension. In this prospective study, the odds ratio for incident hypertension was 1.39 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.22, 1.59) for individuals with any FH of hypertension compared with those without such an FH. Individuals with an FH of hypertension in both parents and one or more grandparents had an odds ratio of 3.05 (95% CI 1.74, 5.36) for hypertension compared with those without an FH of hypertension. FH was associated with incident hypertension independently of other modifiable risk factors such as obesity, smoking, physical inactivity, hyperglycemia, hyperuricemia, and hypertriglyceridemia.A parental history of hypertension was an essential component within an FH for incident hypertension. FH of hypertension over two generations with both parents affected was the most important risk factor for incident hypertension. Although an FH is not a modifiable risk factor, modifying other risk factors could contribute to reducing the risk of hypertension even among individuals with a family history of hypertension.

Utility of nonblood-based risk assessment for predicting type 2 diabetes mellitus: A meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Nonblood-based risk assessment for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) that depends on data based on a questionnaire and anthropometry is expected to avoid unnecessary diagnostic testing and overdiagnosis due to blood testing. This meta-analysis aims to assess the predictive ability of nonblood-based risk assessment for future incident T2DM. METHODS: Electronic literature search was conducted using EMBASE and MEDLINE (from January 1, 1997 to October 1, 2014). Included studies had to use at least 3 predictors for T2DM risk assessment and allow reproduction of 2×2 contingency table data (i.e., true positive, true negative, false positive, false negative) to be pooled with a bivariate random-effects model and hierarchical summary receiver-operating characteristic model. Considering the importance of excluding individuals with a low likelihood of T2DM from diagnostic blood testing, we especially focused on specificity and LR-. RESULTS: Eighteen eligible studies consisting of 184,011 participants and 7038 cases were identified. The pooled estimates (95% confidence interval) were as follows: sensitivity=0.73 (0.66-0.79), specificity=0.66 (0.59-0.73), LR+=2.13 (1.81-2.50), and LR-=0.41 (0.34-0.50). CONCLUSIONS: Nonblood-based assessment of risk of T2DM could produce acceptable results although the feasibility of such a screener needs to be determined in future studies.