Catastrophic health expenditure during the COVID-19 pandemic in five countries: a time-series analysis.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted health systems in 2020, but it is unclear how financial hardship due to out-of-pocket (OOP) health-care costs was affected. We analysed catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) in 2020 in five countries with available household expenditure data: Belarus, Mexico, Peru, Russia, and Viet Nam. In Mexico and Peru, we also conducted an analysis of drivers of change in CHE in 2020 using publicly available data. METHODS: In this time-series analysis, we defined CHE as when OOP health-care spending exceeds 10% of consumption expenditure. Data for 2004-20 were obtained from individual and household level survey microdata (available for Mexico and Peru only), and tabulated data from the National Statistical Committee of Belarus and the World Bank Health Equity and Financial Protection Indicator database (for Viet Nam and Russia). We compared 2020 CHE with the CHE predicted from historical trends using an ensemble model. This method was also used to assess drivers of CHE: insurance coverage, OOP expenditure, and consumption expenditure. Interrupted time-series analysis was used to investigate the role of stay-at-home orders in March, 2020 in changes in health-care use and sector (ie, private vs public). FINDINGS: In Mexico, CHE increased to 5·6% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 5·1-6·2) in 2020, higher than predicted (3·2%, 2·5-4·0). In Belarus, CHE was 13·5% (11·8-15·2) in 2020, also higher than predicted (9·7%, 7·7-11·3). CHE was not different than predicted by past trends in Russia, Peru, and Viet Nam. Between March and April, 2020, health-care visits dropped by 4·6 (2·6-6·5) percentage points in Mexico and by 48·3 (40·6-56·0) percentage points in Peru, and the private share of health-care visits increased by 7·3 (4·3-10·3) percentage points in Mexico and by 20·7 (17·3-24·0) percentage points in Peru. INTERPRETATION: In three of the five countries studied, health systems either did not protect people from the financial risks of health care or did not maintain health-care access in 2020, an indication of health systems failing to maintain basic functions. If the 2020 response to the COVID-19 pandemic accelerated shifts to private health-care use, policies to cover costs in that sector or motivate patients to return to the public sector are needed to maintain financial risk protection. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Health System Redesign to Shift to Hospital Delivery for Maternal and Newborn Survival: Feasibility Assessment in Kakamega County, Kenya.

Maternal and newborn health (MNH) service delivery redesign aims to improve maternal and newborn survival by shifting deliveries from poorly equipped primary care facilities to adequately prepared designated delivery hospitals. We assess the feasibility of such a model in Kakamega County, Kenya, by determining the capacity of hospitals to provide services under the redesigned model and the acceptability of the concept to providers and users. We find many existing system assets to implement redesign, including political will to improve MNH outcomes, a strong base of support among providers and users, and a good geographic spread of facilities to support implementation. There are nonetheless health workforce gaps, infrastructure deficits, and transportation challenges that would need to be addressed ahead of policy rollout. Implementing MNH redesign would require careful planning to limit unintended consequences and rigorous evaluation to assess impact and inform scale-up.

Variation in HIV care and treatment outcomes by facility in South Africa, 2011-2015: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Despite widespread availability of HIV treatment, patient outcomes differ across facilities. We propose and evaluate an approach to measure quality of HIV care at health facilities in South Africa's national HIV program using routine laboratory data. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Data were extracted from South Africa's National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) Corporate Data Warehouse. All CD4 counts, viral loads (VLs), and other laboratory tests used in HIV monitoring were linked, creating a validated patient identifier. We constructed longitudinal HIV care cascades for all patients in the national HIV program, excluding data from the Western Cape and very small facilities. We then estimated for each facility in each year (2011 to 2015) the following cascade measures identified a priori as reflecting quality of HIV care: median CD4 count among new patients; retention 12 months after presentation; 12-month retention among patients established in care; viral suppression; CD4 recovery; monitoring after an elevated VL. We used factor analysis to identify an underlying measure of quality of care, and we assessed the persistence of this quality measure over time. We then assessed spatiotemporal variation and facility and population predictors in a multivariable regression context. We analyzed data on 3,265 facilities with a median (IQR) annual size of 441 (189 to 988) lab-monitored HIV patients. Retention 12 months after presentation increased from 42% to 47% during the study period, and viral suppression increased from 66% to 79%, although there was substantial variability across facilities. We identified an underlying measure of quality of HIV care that correlated with all cascade measures except median CD4 count at presentation. Averaging across the 5 years of data, this quality score attained a reliability of 0.84. Quality was higher for clinics (versus hospitals), in rural (versus urban) areas, and for larger facilities. Quality was lower in high-poverty areas but was not independently associated with percent Black. Quality increased by 0.49 (95% CI 0.46 to 0.53) standard deviations from 2011 to 2015, and there was evidence of geospatial autocorrelation (p < 0.001). The study's limitations include an inability to fully adjust for underlying patient risk, reliance on laboratory data which do not capture all relevant domains of quality, potential for errors in record linkage, and the omission of Western Cape. CONCLUSIONS: We observed persistent differences in HIV care and treatment outcomes across South African facilities. Targeting low-performing facilities for additional support could reduce overall burden of disease.

The price of quality care: cross-sectional associations between out-of-pocket payments and quality of care in six low-income countries.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the relationship between out-of-pocket (OOP) payments and primary health care quality in six low-income countries: Afghanistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Haiti, Nepal, Senegal and Tanzania. METHODS: We examined the association between OOP payments and quality of care during antenatal care and sick child care visits using Service Provision Assessments data. We defined four process quality outcomes from observations of clinical care: visit duration, history-taking items asked, exam items performed, and counselling items delivered. The outcome is the total amount paid for services. We used multilevel models to test the relationship between OOP payments and each quality measure in public, private non-profit and private for-profit facilities controlling for patient, provider, and facility characteristics. RESULTS: Across the six countries, an average of 42% of the 29 677 observed clients paid for their visit. In the adjusted models, OOP payments were positively associated with the visit duration during sick child visits, with history-taking and exam items during antenatal care visits, and with counselling in private for-profit facilities for both visit types. These associations were strong particularly in Afghanistan, the DRC and Haiti; for example, a high-quality antenatal care visit in the DRC would cost approximately USD 1.12 more than a visit with median quality. CONCLUSION: Provider effort was associated with higher OOP payments for sick child and antenatal care services in the six countries studied. While many families are already spending high amounts on care, they must often spend even more to receive higher quality care.

The effects of performance-based financing on neonatal health outcomes in Burundi, Lesotho, Senegal, Zambia and Zimbabwe.

Maternal and newborn care has been a primary focus of performance-based financing (PBF) projects, which have been piloted or implemented in 21 countries in sub-Saharan Africa since 2007. Several evaluations of PBF have demonstrated improvements to facility delivery or quality of care. However, no studies have measured the impact of PBF programmes directly on neonatal health outcomes in Africa, nor compared PBF programmes against another. We assess the impact of PBF on early neonatal health outcomes and associated health care utilization and quality in Burundi, Lesotho, Senegal, Zambia and Zimbabwe. We pooled Demographic and Health Surveys and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys and apply difference-in-differences analysis to estimate the effect of PBF projects supported by the World Bank on early neonatal mortality and low birthweight. We also assessed the effect of PBF on intermediate outputs that are frequently explicitly incentivized in PBF projects, including facility delivery and antenatal care utilization and quality, and caesarean section. Finally, we examined the impact among births to poor or high-risk women. We found no statistically significant impact of PBF on neonatal health outcomes, health care utilization or quality in a pooled sample. PBF was also not associated with better health outcomes in each country individually, though in some countries and among poor women PBF improved facility delivery, antenatal care utilization or antenatal care quality. There was no improvement on the health outcomes among poor or high-risk women in the five countries. PBF had no impact on early neonatal health outcomes in the five African countries studied and had limited and variable effects on the utilization and quality of neonatal health care. These findings suggest that there is a need for both a deeper assessment of PBF and for other strategies to make meaningful improvements to neonatal health outcomes.

Assessment of health facility quality improvements, United Republic of Tanzania.

OBJECTIVE: To identify contextual factors associated with quality improvements in primary health-care facilities in the United Republic of Tanzania between two star rating assessments, focusing on local district administration and proximity to other facilities. METHODS: Facilities underwent star rating assessments in 2015 and between 2017 and 2018; quality was rated from zero to five stars. The consolidated framework for implementation research, adapted to a low-income context, was used to identify variables associated with star rating improvements between assessments. Facility data were obtained from several secondary sources. The proportion of the variance in facility improvement observed at facility and district levels and the influence of nearby facilities and district administration were estimated using multilevel regression models and a hierarchical spatial autoregressive model, respectively. FINDINGS: Star ratings improved at 4028 of 5595 (72%) primary care facilities. Factors associated with improvement included: (i) star rating in 2015; (ii) facility type (e.g. hospital) and ownership (e.g. public); (iii) participation in, or eligibility for, a results-based financing programme; (iv) local population density; and (v) distance from a major road. Overall, 20% of the variance in facility improvement was associated with district administration. Geographical clustering indicated that improvement at a facility was also associated with improvements at nearby facilities. CONCLUSION: Although the majority of facilities improved their star rating, there were substantial variations between facilities. Both district administration and proximity to high-performing facilities influenced improvements. Quality improvement interventions should take advantage of factors operating above the facility level, such as peer learning and peer pressure.

Predicted effect of regionalised delivery care on neonatal mortality, utilisation, financial risk, and patient utility in Malawi: an agent-based modelling analysis.

BACKGROUND: Health-care regionalisation, in which selected services are concentrated in higher-level facilities, has successfully improved the quality of complex medical care. However, the effectiveness of this strategy in routine maternal care is unknown. Malawi has established a national goal of halving its neonatal mortality by 2030. In this study, we aimed to assess the effect of obstetric service regionalisation in pregnant women and their newborn babies in Malawi. METHODS: In this analysis, we assessed regionalisation through the use of an agent-based simulation model. We used a previously estimated utilisation function, incorporating both patient-specific and health-facility-specific characteristics, to inform patient choice. The model was validated against known utilisation patterns in Malawi. Four regionalisation scenarios were compared with the status quo: scenario 1 restricted deliveries to facilities currently capable of providing caesarean sections; scenario 2 had the same restrictions as scenario 1, but with selected facilities upgraded to provide caesarean sections; scenario 3 restricted delivery to facilities that provided five or more basic emergency obstetric and neonatal care services in the preceding 3 months; and scenario 4 had the same restrictions as scenario 3, but with selected facilities upgraded to provide at least five basic emergency obstetric and neonatal care services. We assessed neonatal mortality, utilisation, travel distance, median out-of-pocket expenditure, and proportion of women facing catastrophic expenditure. The effects of upgrading the obstetric readiness of all facilities, of removing all user fees, and of upgrading without restriction were considered in scenario analyses. Heterogeneity and parameter uncertainty were incorporated to create 95% posterior credible intervals (PCIs). FINDINGS: Scenarios restricting women to give birth in facilities with caesarean section capabilities reduced neonatal mortality by 11·4 deaths per 1000 livebirths (scenario 1; 95% PCI 9·8-13·1) and 11·6 deaths per 1000 livebirths (scenario 2; 10·2-13·1), whereas scenarios restricting women to facilities that provided five or more basic emergency obstetric and neonatal care services did not affect neonatal mortality. Similarly, the caesarean section rate in Malawi, which is 4·6% under the status quo, was predicted to rise significantly in scenario 1 (14·7%, 95% PCI 14·5-14·9; p<0·0001) and scenario 2 (10·4%, 10·2-10·6; p<0·0001), but not in scenarios 3 and 4. Women were required to travel longer distances in scenario 1 (increase of 7·2 km, 95% PCI 4·5-9·9) and in scenario 2 (4·4 km, 1·5-7·2) than in the status quo (p<0·0001). Out-of-pocket costs tripled (p<0·0001; status quo vs scenario 1 and scenario 2), and the risk of catastrophic expenditure significantly increased from a baseline of 6·4% (95% PCI 6·1-6·6) to 14·7% (14·5-14·9) in scenario 1 and 11·3% (11·0-11·5) in scenario 2. This increase was especially pronounced among the poor (p<0·0001; status quo vs scenario 1 and scenario 2). INTERPRETATION: Policies restricting women to give birth in facilities with caesarean section capabilities is likely to result in significant decreases in neonatal mortality and might allow Malawi to meet its goal of halving its neonatal mortality by 2030. However, this improvement comes at the cost of increased distances to care and worsening financial risks among women. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Damon Runyon Cancer Research Foundation.

Latent class analysis of the social determinants of health-seeking behaviour for delivery among pregnant women in Malawi.

INTRODUCTION: In the era of Sustainable Development Goals, reducing maternal and neonatal mortality is a priority. With one of the highest maternal mortality ratios in the world, Malawi has a significant opportunity for improvement. One effort to improve maternal outcomes involves increasing access to high-quality health facilities for delivery. This study aimed to determine the role that quality plays in women's choice of delivery facility. METHODS: A revealed-preference latent class analysis was performed with data from 6625 facility births among women in Malawi from 2013 to 2014. Responses were weighted for national representativeness, and model structure and class number were selected using the Bayesian information criterion. RESULTS: Two classes of preferences exist for pregnant women in Malawi. Most of the population 65.85% (95% CI 65.847% to 65.853%) prefer closer facilities that do not charge fees. The remaining third (34.15%, 95% CI 34.147% to 34.153%) prefers central hospitals, facilities with higher basic obstetric readiness scores and locations further from home. Women in this class are more likely to be older, literate, educated and wealthier than the majority of women. CONCLUSION: For only one-third of pregnant Malawian women, structural quality of care, as measured by basic obstetric readiness score, factored into their choice of facility for delivery. Most women instead prioritise closer care and care without fees. Interventions designed to increase access to high-quality care in Malawi will need to take education, distance, fees and facility type into account, as structural quality alone is not predictive of facility type selection in this population.

Assessment of quality of primary care with facility surveys: a descriptive analysis in ten low-income and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Primary care has the potential to address a large proportion of people's health needs, promote equity, and contain costs, but only if it provides high-quality health services that people want to use. 40 years after the Declaration of Alma-Ata, little is known about the quality of primary care in low-income and middle-income countries. We assessed whether existing facility surveys capture relevant aspects of primary care performance and summarised the quality of primary care in ten low-income and middle-income countries. METHODS: We used Service Provision Assessment surveys, the most comprehensive nationally representative surveys of health systems, to select indicators corresponding to three of the process quality domains (competent systems, evidence-based care, and user experience) identified by the Lancet Global Health Commission on High Quality Health Systems in the Sustainable Development Goals Era. We calculated composite and domain quality scores for first-level primary care facilities across and within ten countries with available facility assessment data (Ethiopia, Haiti, Kenya, Malawi, Namibia, Nepal, Rwanda, Senegal, Tanzania, and Uganda). FINDINGS: Data were available for 7049 facilities and 63 869 care visits. There were gaps in measurement of important outcomes such as user experience, health outcomes, and confidence, and processes such as timely action, choice of provider, affordability, ease of use, dignity, privacy, non-discrimination, autonomy, and confidentiality. No information about care competence was available outside maternal and child health. Overall, scores for primary care quality were low (mean 0·41 on a scale of 0 to 1). At a domain level, scores were lowest for user experience, followed by evidence-based care, and then competent systems. At the subdomain level, scores for patient focus, prevention and detection, technical quality of sick-child care, and population-health management were lower than those for other subdomains. INTERPRETATION: Facility surveys do not capture key elements of primary care quality. The available measures suggest major gaps in primary care quality. If not addressed, these gaps will limit the contribution of primary care to reaching the ambitious Sustainable Development Goals. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Mortality due to low-quality health systems in the universal health coverage era: a systematic analysis of amenable deaths in 137 countries.

BACKGROUND: Universal health coverage has been proposed as a strategy to improve health in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, this is contingent on the provision of good-quality health care. We estimate the excess mortality for conditions targeted in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) that are amenable to health care and the portion of this excess mortality due to poor-quality care in 137 LMICs, in which excess mortality refers to deaths that could have been averted in settings with strong health systems. METHODS: Using data from the 2016 Global Burden of Disease study, we calculated mortality amenable to personal health care for 61 SDG conditions by comparing case fatality between each LMIC with corresponding numbers from 23 high-income reference countries with strong health systems. We used data on health-care utilisation from population surveys to separately estimate the portion of amenable mortality attributable to non-utilisation of health care versus that attributable to receipt of poor-quality care. FINDINGS: 15·6 million excess deaths from 61 conditions occurred in LMICs in 2016. After excluding deaths that could be prevented through public health measures, 8·6 million excess deaths were amenable to health care of which 5·0 million were estimated to be due to receipt of poor-quality care and 3·6 million were due to non-utilisation of health care. Poor quality of health care was a major driver of excess mortality across conditions, from cardiovascular disease and injuries to neonatal and communicable disorders. INTERPRETATION: Universal health coverage for SDG conditions could avert 8·6 million deaths per year but only if expansion of service coverage is accompanied by investments into high-quality health systems. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Training And Supervision Did Not Meaningfully Improve Quality Of Care For Pregnant Women Or Sick Children In Sub-Saharan Africa.

In-service training courses and supportive supervision of health workers are among the most common interventions to improve the quality of health care in low- and middle-income countries. Despite extensive investment from donors, evaluations of the long-term effect of these two interventions are scarce. We used nationally representative surveys of health systems in seven countries in sub-Saharan Africa to examine the association of in-service training and supervision with provider quality in antenatal and sick child care. The results of our analysis showed that observed quality of care was poor, with fewer than half of evidence-based actions completed by health workers, on average. In-service training and supervision were associated with quality of sick child care; they were associated with quality of antenatal care only when provided jointly. All associations were modest-at most, improvements related to interventions were equivalent to 2 additional provider actions out of the 18-40 actions expected per visit. In-service training and supportive supervision as delivered were not sufficient to meaningfully improve the quality of care in these countries. Greater attention to the quality of health professional education and national health system performance will be required to provide the standard of health care that patients deserve.

PEPFAR Investments In Governance And Health Systems Were One-Fifth Of Countries' Budgeted Funds, 2004-14.

Launched in 2003, the US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) is the largest disease-focused assistance program in the world. We analyzed PEPFAR budgets for governance and systems for the period 2004-14 to ascertain whether PEPFAR's stated emphasis on strengthening health systems has been manifested financially. The main outcome variable in our analysis, the first of its kind using these data, was the share of PEPFAR's total annual budget for a country that was designated for governance and systems. The share of planned PEPFAR funding for governance and systems increased from 14.9 percent, on average, in 2004 to 27.5 percent in 2013, but it declined in 2014 to 20.8 percent. This study shows that the size of a country's PEPFAR budget was negatively associated with the share allocated for governance and systems (compared with other budget program areas); it also shows that there was no significant relationship between budgets for governance and systems and HIV prevalence. It is crucial for the global health policy community to better understand how such investments are allocated and used for health systems strengthening.