Several explorations on how to construct an early warning system for local government debt risk in China.

This paper aims to explore several ways to construct a scientific and comprehensive early warning system (EWS) for local government debt risk in China. In order to achieve this goal, this paper studies the local government debt risk from multiple perspectives, i.e., individual risk, contagion risk, static risk and dynamic risk. Firstly, taking China's 30 provinces over the period of 2010~ 2018 as a sample, this paper establishes early warning indicators for individual risk of local government debt, and uses the network model to establish early warning indicators for contagion risk of local government debt. Then, this paper applies the criteria importance though intercrieria correlation (CRITIC) method and coefficient of variation method to obtain the proxy variable Ⅰ, which combines the above two risks. Secondly, based on the proxy variable Ⅰ, both the Markov-switching autoregressive (MS-AR) model and coefficient of variation method are used to obtain the proxy variable Ⅱ, which comprehensively considers the individual risk, contagion risk, static risk and dynamic risk of local government debt. Finally, machine learning algorithms are adopted to generalize the EWS designed in this paper. The results show that: (1) From different perspectives of local government debt risk, the list of provinces that require early warning is different; (2) The support vector machines can well generalize our EWS.

Pathway of Green Development of Yangtze River Economics Belt from the Perspective of Green Technological Innovation and Environmental Regulation.

The eco-efficiency of the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2005 to 2019 has been evaluated by the super-efficiency SBM window model, the results of which are taken as the measurement standard for green development. Next, more attempts have been done to figure out the impacts of green technological innovation on the green development in urban clusters of the Yangtze River Economic Belt by a systematic GMM model, further confirming the moderation effect of dual environmental regulations on the relationship between green technological innovation and green development and the heterogeneity in different urban clusters of the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Finally, it is a fact that a cascade has been pointed out in green development of the Yangtze River Economic Zone. With an empirical analysis, it has been found that green technological innovation has a positive moderating effect on green development in the downstream regions, and the relationship between green technological innovation and green development is positively affected by the formal environmental regulations in the overall Yangtze River Economic Zone and the midstream region. Meanwhile, informal environmental regulations play a positive role in moderating the links between green technological innovation and green development in the overall Yangtze River Economic Zone, as well as the upstream, midstream and downstream regions. Based on the conclusions of the research, some policy suggestions of a multi-environmental regulation governance system and regional differentiated environmental regulation are given at last.

A Spatial Panel Data Analysis of Economic Growth, Urbanization, and NOx Emissions in China.

Abstract: Is nitrogen oxides emissions spatially correlated in a Chinese context? What is the relationship between nitrogen oxides emission levels and fast-growing economy/urbanization? More importantly, what environmental preservation and economic developing policies should China's central and local governments take to mitigate the overall nitrogen oxides emissions and prevent severe air pollution at the provincial level in specific locations and their neighboring areas? The present study aims to tackle these issues. This is the first research that simultaneously studies the nexus between nitrogen oxides emissions and economic development/urbanization, with the application of a spatial panel data technique. Our empirical findings suggest that spatial dependence of nitrogen oxides emissions distribution exists at the provincial level. Through the investigation of the existence of an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) embedded within the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) framework, we conclude something interesting: an inverse N-shaped EKC describes both the income-nitrogen oxides nexus and the urbanization-nitrogen oxides nexus. Some well-directed policy advice is provided to reduce nitrogen oxides in the future. Moreover, these results contribute to the literature on development and pollution.