Present-day and future PM2.5 and O3-related global and regional premature mortality in the EVAv6.0 health impact assessment model.

We used the EVAv6.0 system to estimate the present (2015) and future (2015-2050) global PM2.5 and O3-related premature mortalities, using simulated surface concentrations from the GISS-E2.1-G Earth system model. The PM2.5-related global premature mortality is estimated to be 4.3 and 4.4 million by the non-linear and linear models, respectively. Ischemic heart diseases are found to be the leading cause of PM2.5-related premature deaths, contributing by 35% globally. Both long-term and short-term O3-related premature deaths are estimated to be around 1 million, globally. Overall, PM2.5 and O3-related premature mortality leads to 5.3-5.4 million premature deaths, globally. The global burden of premature deaths is mainly driven by the Asian region, which in 2015 contributes by 75% of the total global premature deaths. An increase from 6.2% to 8% in the PM2.5 relative risk as recommended by the WHO leads to an increase of PM2.5-related premature mortality by 28%, to 5.7 million. Finally, bias correcting the simulated PM2.5 concentrations in 2015 leads to an increase of up to 73% in the global PM2.5-related premature mortality, leading to a total number of global premature deaths of up to 7.7 million, implying the necessity of bias correction to get more robust health burden estimates. PM2.5 and O3-related premature mortality in 2050 decreases by up to 57% and 18%, respectively, due to emission reductions alone. However, the projected increase and aging of the population leads to increases of premature mortality by up to a factor of 2, showing that the population exposed to air pollution is more important than the level of air pollutants, highlighting that the population dynamics should be considered when setting up health assessment systems.

Air pollution at the residence of Danish adults, by socio-demographic characteristics, morbidity, and address level characteristics.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to outdoor air pollution is associated with adverse health effects. Previous studies have indicated higher levels of air pollution in socially deprived areas. AIM: To investigate associations between air pollution and socio-demographic variables, comorbidity, stress, and green space at the residence in Denmark. METHODS: We included 2,237,346 persons living in Denmark, aged 35 years or older in 2017. We used the high resolution, multi-scale DEHM/UBM/AirGIS air pollution modelling system to calculate mean concentrations of air pollution with PM2.5, elemental carbon, ultrafine particles and NO2 at residences held the preceding five years. We used nationwide registries to retrieve information about socio-demographic indicators at the individual and neighborhood levels. We used general linear regression models to analyze associations between socio-demographic indicators and air pollution at the residence. RESULTS: Individuals with high SES (income, higher white-collar worker and high educational level) and of non-Danish origin were exposed to higher levels of air pollution than individuals of low SES and of Danish origin, respectively. We found comparable levels of air pollution according to sex, stress events and morbidity. For neighborhood level SES indicators, we found high air pollution levels in neighborhoods with low SES measured as proportion of social housing, sole providers, low income and unemployment. In contrast, we found higher air pollution levels in neighborhoods with higher educational level and a low proportion of manual labor. People living in an apartment and/or with little green space had higher air pollution levels. CONCLUSION: In Denmark, high levels of residential air pollution were associated with higher individual SES and non-Danish origin. For neighborhood-level indicators of SES, no consistent pattern was observed. These results highlight the need for analyzing many different socio-demographic indicators to understand the complex associations between SES and exposure to air pollution.

Assessment and economic valuation of air pollution impacts on human health over Europe and the United States as calculated by a multi-model ensemble in the framework of AQMEII3.

The impact of air pollution on human health and the associated external costs in Europe and the United States (US) for the year 2010 are modeled by a multi-model ensemble of regional models in the frame of the third phase of the Air Quality Modelling Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII3). The modeled surface concentrations of O3, CO, SO2 and PM2.5 are used as input to the Economic Valuation of Air Pollution (EVA) system to calculate the resulting health impacts and the associated external costs from each individual model. Along with a base case simulation, additional runs were performed introducing 20 % anthropogenic emission reductions both globally and regionally in Europe, North America and east Asia, as defined by the second phase of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP2). Health impacts estimated by using concentration inputs from different chemistry-transport models (CTMs) to the EVA system can vary up to a factor of 3 in Europe (12 models) and the United States (3 models). In Europe, the multi-model mean total number of premature deaths (acute and chronic) is calculated to be 414 000, while in the US, it is estimated to be 160 000, in agreement with previous global and regional studies. The economic valuation of these health impacts is calculated to be EUR 300 billion and 145 billion in Europe and the US, respectively. A subset of models that produce the smallest error compared to the surface observations at each time step against an all-model mean ensemble results in increase of health impacts by up to 30 % in Europe, while in the US, the optimal ensemble mean led to a decrease in the calculated health impacts by ~ 11 %. A total of 54 000 and 27 500 premature deaths can be avoided by a 20 % reduction of global anthropogenic emissions in Europe and the US, respectively. A 20 % reduction of North American anthropogenic emissions avoids a total of ~ 1000 premature deaths in Europe and 25 000 total premature deaths in the US. A 20 % decrease of anthropogenic emissions within the European source region avoids a total of 47 000 premature deaths in Europe. Reducing the east Asian anthropogenic emissions by 20 % avoids ~ 2000 total premature deaths in the US. These results show that the domestic anthropogenic emissions make the largest impacts on premature deaths on a continental scale, while foreign sources make a minor contribution to adverse impacts of air pollution.