Total daily energy expenditure has declined over the past three decades due to declining basal expenditure, not reduced activity expenditure.

Obesity is caused by a prolonged positive energy balance1,2. Whether reduced energy expenditure stemming from reduced activity levels contributes is debated3,4. Here we show that in both sexes, total energy expenditure (TEE) adjusted for body composition and age declined since the late 1980s, while adjusted activity energy expenditure increased over time. We use the International Atomic Energy Agency Doubly Labelled Water database on energy expenditure of adults in the United States and Europe (n = 4,799) to explore patterns in total (TEE: n = 4,799), basal (BEE: n = 1,432) and physical activity energy expenditure (n = 1,432) over time. In males, adjusted BEE decreased significantly, but in females this did not reach significance. A larger dataset of basal metabolic rate (equivalent to BEE) measurements of 9,912 adults across 163 studies spanning 100 years replicates the decline in BEE in both sexes. We conclude that increasing obesity in the United States/Europe has probably not been fuelled by reduced physical activity leading to lowered TEE. We identify here a decline in adjusted BEE as a previously unrecognized factor.

Modeling of Cadmium Bioaccumulation Dynamics in Channa punctata (Bloch, 1793) of Dankuni Wetland Ecosystem and Assessment of Risk to Human Health.

Contamination of freshwater wetlands with toxic heavy metals and metalloids is a significant public health concern. Cadmium (Cd) is one of the most common heavy metals affecting water bodies and fish. In the Dankuni wetland (DW) ecosystem in India, variations in Cd concentration from the aquatic system to different fish tissues have been investigated. Channa punctata is an easily accessible fish with a high nutritional value, and offers a good economic return for the fishermen of West Bengal. A dynamic model was constructed considering the importance of the Cd concentration in the water of the wetland system and different fish tissues. A sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the valuable contribution of different parameters that determine the dynamics of Cd concentration in a wetland aquatic environment. The observed data is used to verify the model simulation performance. To predict the effects of Cd on humans, a survey of fish consumers was conducted around DW. Individuals living near DW, on low income (<5,000 INR) and over the age of fifty, were at high risk of Cd contamination. Their average daily intake rate was quite high (2.48×10-5 mg kg-1 day-1) and the hazard quotient calculated for these individuals was also high (0.024). People over age of 50 years had renal, cardiovascular, and osteological diseases with disease percentages of 56%, 46%, and 45%, respectively. Data on Cd-related health problems were collected from Cd-associated and non-Cd-associated individuals residing in the periphery of DW. The system-sensitive parameter was the rate of Cd entry into the water system (C Inp rt). If the Cd level is checked at the entrance of the reservoir by management policy; the risk of Cd contamination to human may be minimized in this area.

Sequential Organ Failure Assessment Score As a Predictor of Outcome in Sepsis in Pediatric Intensive Care Unit.

Sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score is used as a predictor of outcome of sepsis in the pediatric intensive care unit. The aim of the study is to determine the application of SOFA scores as a predictor of outcome in children admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit with a diagnosis of sepsis. The design involved is prospective observational study. The study took place at the multidisciplinary pediatric intensive care unit (PICU), tertiary care hospital, South India. The patients included are children, aged 1 month to 18 years admitted with a diagnosis of sepsis (suspected/proven) to a single center PICU in India from November 2017 to November 2019. Data collected included the demographic, clinical, laboratory, and outcome-related variables. Severity of illness scores was calculated to include SOFA score day 1 (SF1) and day 3 (SF3) using a pediatric version (pediatric SOFA score or pSOFA) with age-adjusted cutoff variables for organ dysfunction, pediatric risk of mortality III (PRISM III; within 24 hours of admission), and pediatric logistic organ dysfunction-2 or PELOD-2 (days 1, 3, and 5). A total of 240 patients were admitted to the PICU with septic shock during the study period. The overall mortality rate was 42 of 240 patients (17.5%). The majority (59%) required mechanical ventilation, while only 19% required renal replacement therapy. The PRISM III, PELOD-2, and pSOFA scores correlated well with mortality. All three severity of illness scores were higher among nonsurvivors as compared with survivors ( p < 0.001). pSOFA scores on both day 1 (area under the curve or AUC 0.84) and day 3 (AUC 0.87) demonstrated significantly higher discriminative power for in-hospital mortality as compared with PRISM III (AUC, 0.7), and PELOD-2 (day 1, [AUC, 0.73]), and PELOD-2 (day 3, [AUC, 0.81]). Utilizing a cutoff SOFA score of >8, the relative risk of prolonged duration of mechanical ventilation, requirement for vasoactive infusions (vasoactive infusion score), and PICU length of stay were all significantly increased ( p < 0.05), on both days 1 and 3. On multiple logistic regression, adjusted odds ratio of mortality was elevated at 8.65 (95% CI: 3.48-21.52) on day 1 and 16.77 (95% confidence interval or CI: 4.7-59.89) on day 3 ( p < 0.001) utilizing the same SOFA score cutoff of 8. A positive association was found between the delta SOFA ([Δ] SOFA) from day 1 to day 3 (SF1-SF3) and in-hospital mortality (chi-square for linear trend, p < 0.001). Subjects with a ΔSOFA of ≥2 points had an exponential mortality rate to 50%. Similar association was-observed between ΔSOFA of ≥2 and-longer duration of inotropic support ( p = 0.0006) with correlation co-efficient 0.2 (95% CI: 0.15-0.35; p = 0.01). Among children admitted to the PICU with septic shock, SOFA scores on both days 1 and 3, have a greater discriminative power for predicting in-hospital mortality than either PRISM III score (within 24 hours of admission) or PELOD-2 score (days 1 and 3). An increase in ΔSOFA of >2 adds additional prognostic accuracy in determining not only mortality risk but also duration of inotropic support as well.

Electrocardiometry for Hemodynamic Categorization and Assessment of Fluid Responsiveness in Pediatric Septic Shock: A Pilot Observational Study.

AIM: To evaluate the utility of noninvasive electrocardiometry (ICON®) for hemodynamic categorization and assessment of fluid responsiveness in pediatric septic shock. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Pilot prospective observational study in a 12-bedded tertiary pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) in children aged between 2 months and 16 years with unresolved septic shock after a 20 mL/kg fluid bolus. Those with cardiac index (CI) <3.3 L/min/m2 and systemic vascular resistance index (SVRI) >1600 dyn sec/cm5/m2 were classified as vasoconstrictive shock-electrocardiometry (VCEC) and those with CI >5.5 L/min/m2 and SVRI <1000 dyn sec/cm5/m2 as vasodilated shock-electrocardiometry (VDEC). Fluid responsiveness was defined as a 10% increase in CI with a 20 mL/kg fluid bolus. Sepsis-induced myocardial dysfunction (SMD) was diagnosed on echocardiography. Outcomes studied included clinical shock resolution, length of PICU stay, and mortality. RESULTS: Thirty children were enrolled over 6 months with a median (interquartile range) age and pediatric risk of mortality (PRISM) III score of 87(21,108) months and 6.75(1.5,8.25), respectively; 14(46.6%) were boys and 4(13.3%) died. Clinically, 19(63.3%) children had cold shock and 11(36.7%) had warm shock; however, 16(53.3%) children had VDEC (including five with clinical cold shock) and 14(46.7%) had VCEC using electrocardiometry. Fluid responsiveness was seen in 16(53.3%) children, 10 in the VCEC group and 6 in the VDEC group. In the VCEC group, the responders had a significant rise in CI and a fall in SVRI, while the responders in the VDEC group had a significant rise in CI and SVRI. Fluid responders, compared to nonresponders, had a significantly higher stroke volume variation (SVV) before fluid bolus (24.1 ± 5.2% vs. 18.2 ± 3.5%, p < 0.001) and a higher reduction in SVV after fluid bolus (10.0 ± 2.8% vs. 6.0 ± 4.5%, p = 0.006), higher lactate clearance (p = 0.03) and lower vasoactive-inotropic score (p = 0.04) at 6 hours, higher percentage of clinical shock resolution at 6 (p = 0.01) and 12 hours (p = 0.01), and lesser mortality (p = 0.002). Five (16.6%) children with VCEC had SMD and were less fluid responsive (p = 0.04) with higher mortality (p = 0.01) compared to those without SMD. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE: Continuous, noninvasive hemodynamic monitoring using electrocardiometry permits hemodynamic categorization and assessment of fluid responsiveness in pediatric septic shock. This may provide real-time guidance for optimal interventions, and thus, improve the outcomes. HOW TO CITE THIS ARTICLE: Rao SS, Reddy M, Lalitha AV, Ghosh S. Electrocardiometry for Hemodynamic Categorization and Assessment of Fluid Responsiveness in Pediatric Septic Shock: A Pilot Observational Study. Indian J Crit Care Med 2021;25(2):185-192.

Bayesian approach for assessing non-inferiority in a three-arm trial with pre-specified margin.

Non-inferiority trials are becoming increasingly popular for comparative effectiveness research. However, inclusion of the placebo arm, whenever possible, gives rise to a three-arm trial which has lesser burdensome assumptions than a standard two-arm non-inferiority trial. Most of the past developments in a three-arm trial consider defining a pre-specified fraction of unknown effect size of reference drug, that is, without directly specifying a fixed non-inferiority margin. However, in some recent developments, a more direct approach is being considered with pre-specified fixed margin albeit in the frequentist setup. Bayesian paradigm provides a natural path to integrate historical and current trials' information via sequential learning. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian approach for simultaneous testing of non-inferiority and assay sensitivity in a three-arm trial with normal responses. For the experimental arm, in absence of historical information, non-informative priors are assumed under two situations, namely when (i) variance is known and (ii) variance is unknown. A Bayesian decision criteria is derived and compared with the frequentist method using simulation studies. Finally, several published clinical trial examples are reanalyzed to demonstrate the benefit of the proposed procedure.

Ambient Air Pollution Exposure Estimation for the Global Burden of Disease 2013.

Exposure to ambient air pollution is a major risk factor for global disease. Assessment of the impacts of air pollution on population health and evaluation of trends relative to other major risk factors requires regularly updated, accurate, spatially resolved exposure estimates. We combined satellite-based estimates, chemical transport model simulations, and ground measurements from 79 different countries to produce global estimates of annual average fine particle (PM2.5) and ozone concentrations at 0.1° × 0.1° spatial resolution for five-year intervals from 1990 to 2010 and the year 2013. These estimates were applied to assess population-weighted mean concentrations for 1990-2013 for each of 188 countries. In 2013, 87% of the world's population lived in areas exceeding the World Health Organization Air Quality Guideline of 10 µg/m(3) PM2.5 (annual average). Between 1990 and 2013, global population-weighted PM2.5 increased by 20.4% driven by trends in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and China. Decreases in population-weighted mean concentrations of PM2.5 were evident in most high income countries. Population-weighted mean concentrations of ozone increased globally by 8.9% from 1990-2013 with increases in most countries-except for modest decreases in North America, parts of Europe, and several countries in Southeast Asia.

Establishing integrated rural-urban cohorts to assess air pollution-related health effects in pregnant women, children and adults in Southern India: an overview of objectives, design and methods in the Tamil Nadu Air Pollution and Health Effects (TAPHE) study.

INTRODUCTION: In rapidly developing countries such as India, the ubiquity of air pollution sources in urban and rural communities often results in ambient and household exposures significantly in excess of health-based air quality guidelines. Few efforts, however, have been directed at establishing quantitative exposure-response relationships in such settings. We describe study protocols for The Tamil Nadu Air Pollution and Health Effects (TAPHE) study, which aims to examine the association between fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposures and select maternal, child and adult health outcomes in integrated rural-urban cohorts. METHODS AND ANALYSES: The TAPHE study is organised into five component studies with participants drawn from a pregnant mother-child cohort and an adult cohort (n=1200 participants in each cohort). Exposures are assessed through serial measurements of 24-48 h PM2.5 area concentrations in household microenvironments together with ambient measurements and time-activity recalls, allowing exposure reconstructions. Generalised additive models will be developed to examine the association between PM2.5 exposures, maternal (birth weight), child (acute respiratory infections) and adult (chronic respiratory symptoms and lung function) health outcomes while adjusting for multiple covariates. In addition, exposure models are being developed to predict PM2.5 exposures in relation to household and community level variables as well as to explore inter-relationships between household concentrations of PM2.5 and air toxics. Finally, a bio-repository of peripheral and cord blood samples is being created to explore the role of gene-environment interactions in follow-up studies. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study protocols have been approved by the Institutional Ethics Committee of Sri Ramachandra University, the host institution for the investigators in this study. Study results will be widely disseminated through peer-reviewed publications and scientific presentations. In addition, policy-relevant recommendations are also being planned to inform ongoing national air quality action plans concerning ambient and household air pollution.

Can currently available advanced combustion biomass cook-stoves provide health relevant exposure reductions? Results from initial assessment of select commercial models in India.

Household air pollution from use of solid fuels is a major contributor to the national burden of disease in India. Currently available models of advanced combustion biomass cook-stoves (ACS) report significantly higher efficiencies and lower emissions in the laboratory when compared to traditional cook-stoves, but relatively little is known about household level exposure reductions, achieved under routine conditions of use. We report results from initial field assessments of six commercial ACS models from the states of Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh in India. We monitored 72 households (divided into six arms to each receive an ACS model) for 24-h kitchen area concentrations of PM2.5 and CO before and (1-6 months) after installation of the new stove together with detailed information on fixed and time-varying household characteristics. Detailed surveys collected information on user perceptions regarding acceptability for routine use. While the median percent reductions in 24-h PM2.5 and CO concentrations ranged from 2 to 71% and 10-66%, respectively, concentrations consistently exceeded WHO air quality guideline values across all models raising questions regarding the health relevance of such reductions. Most models were perceived to be sub-optimally designed for routine use often resulting in inappropriate and inadequate levels of use. Household concentration reductions also run the risk of being compromised by high ambient backgrounds from community level solid-fuel use and contributions from surrounding fossil fuel sources. Results indicate that achieving health relevant exposure reductions in solid-fuel using households will require integration of emissions reductions with ease of use and adoption at community scale, in cook-stove technologies. Imminent efforts are also needed to accelerate the progress towards cleaner fuels.

State and national household concentrations of PM2.5 from solid cookfuel use: results from measurements and modeling in India for estimation of the global burden of disease.

BACKGROUND: Previous global burden of disease (GBD) estimates for household air pollution (HAP) from solid cookfuel use were based on categorical indicators of exposure. Recent progress in GBD methodologies that use integrated-exposure-response (IER) curves for combustion particles required the development of models to quantitatively estimate average HAP levels experienced by large populations. Such models can also serve to inform public health intervention efforts. Thus, we developed a model to estimate national household concentrations of PM2.5 from solid cookfuel use in India, together with estimates for 29 states. METHODS: We monitored 24-hr household concentrations of PM2.5, in 617 rural households from 4 states in India on a cross-sectional basis between November 2004 and March 2005. We then, developed log-linear regression models that predict household concentrations as a function of multiple, independent household level variables available in national household surveys and generated national / state estimates using The Indian National Family and Health Survey (NFHS 2005). RESULTS: The measured mean 24-hr concentration of PM2.5 in solid cookfuel using households ranged from 163 µg/m3 (95% CI: 143,183; median 106; IQR: 191) in the living area to 609 µg/m3 (95% CI: 547,671; median: 472; IQR: 734) in the kitchen area. Fuel type, kitchen type, ventilation, geographical location and cooking duration were found to be significant predictors of PM2.5 concentrations in the household model. k-fold cross validation showed a fair degree of correlation (r = 0.56) between modeled and measured values. Extrapolation of the household results by state to all solid cookfuel-using households in India, covered by NFHS 2005, resulted in a modeled estimate of 450 µg/m3 (95% CI: 318,640) and 113 µg/m3 (95% CI: 102,127) , for national average 24-hr PM2.5 concentrations in the kitchen and living areas respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The model affords substantial improvement over commonly used exposure indicators such as "percent solid cookfuel use" in HAP disease burden assessments, by providing some of the first estimates of national average HAP levels experienced in India. Model estimates also add considerable strength of evidence for framing and implementation of intervention efforts at the state and national levels.

Prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in rural women of Tamilnadu: implications for refining disease burden assessments attributable to household biomass combustion.

BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is the 13th leading cause of burden of disease worldwide and is expected to become 5th by 2020. Biomass fuel combustion significantly contributes to COPD, although smoking is recognized as the most important risk factor. Rural women in developing countries bear the largest share of this burden resulting from chronic exposures to biomass fuel smoke. Although there is considerable strength of evidence for the association between COPD and biomass smoke exposure, limited information is available on the background prevalence of COPD in these populations. OBJECTIVE: This study was conducted to estimate the prevalence of COPD and its associated factors among non-smoking rural women in Tiruvallur district of Tamilnadu in Southern India. DESIGN: This cross-sectional study was conducted among 900 non-smoking women aged above 30 years, from 45 rural villages of Tiruvallur district of Tamilnadu in Southern India in the period between January and May 2007. COPD assessments were done using a combination of clinical examination and spirometry. Logistic regression analysis was performed to examine the association between COPD and use of biomass for cooking. R software was used for statistical analysis. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of COPD in this study was found to be 2.44% (95% CI: 1.43-3.45). COPD prevalence was higher in biomass fuel users than the clean fuel users 2.5 vs. 2%, (OR: 1.24; 95% CI: 0.36-6.64) and it was two times higher (3%) in women who spend >2 hours/day in the kitchen involved in cooking. Use of solid fuel was associated with higher risk for COPD, although no statistically significant results were obtained in this study. CONCLUSION: The estimates generated in this study will contribute significantly to the growing database of available information on COPD prevalence in rural women. Moreover, with concomitant indoor air pollution measurements, it may be possible to increase the resolution of the association between biomass use and COPD prevalence and refine available attributable burden of disease estimates.