Ending AIDS as a public health threat by 2030: Time to reset targets for 2025.

Paul De Lay and co-authors introduce a Collection on the design of targets for ending the AIDS epidemic.

Correction: What Is Required to End the AIDS Epidemic as a Public Health Threat by 2030? The Cost and Impact of the Fast-Track Approach.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0154893.].

Frontloading HIV financing maximizes the achievable impact of HIV prevention.

INTRODUCTION: Due to the nature of funding, national planners and international donors typically balance budgets over short time periods when designing HIV programmes (˜5-year funding cycles). We aim to explicitly quantify the cost of short-term funding arrangements on the success of future HIV prevention programmes. METHODS: Using mathematical models of HIV transmission in Kenya, we compare the impact of optimized combination prevention strategies under different constraints on investment over time. Each scenario has the same total budget for the 30-year intervention period but the pattern of spending over time is allowed to vary. We look at the impact of programmes with decreasing, increasing or constant spending across 5-year funding cycles for a 30-year period. Interventions are optimized within each funding cycle such that strategies take a short-term view of the epidemic. We compare these with two strategies with no spending pattern constraints: one with static intervention choices and another flexible strategy with interventions changed in year ten. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: For the same total 30-year budget, greatest impact is achieved if larger initial prevention spending is offset by later treatment savings which leads to accumulating benefits in reduced infections. The impact under funding cycle constraints is determined by the extent to which greater initial spending is permitted. Short-term funding constraints and funds held back to later years may reduce impact by up to 18% relative to the flexible long-term strategy. CONCLUSIONS: Ensuring that funding arrangements are in place to support long-term prevention strategies will make spending most impactful. Greater prevention spending now will bring considerable returns through reductions in new infections, greater population health and reductions in the burden on health services in the future.

HIV prevention where it is needed most: comparison of strategies for the geographical allocation of interventions.

INTRODUCTION: A strategic approach to the application of HIV prevention interventions is a core component of the UNAIDS Fast Track strategy to end the HIV epidemic by 2030. Central to these plans is a focus on high-prevalence geographies, in a bid to target resources to those in greatest need and maximize the reduction in new infections. Whilst this idea of geographical prioritization has the potential to improve efficiency, it is unclear how it should be implemented in practice. There are a range of prevention interventions which can be applied differentially across risk groups and locations, making allocation decisions complex. Here, we use mathematical modelling to compare the impact (infections averted) of a number of different approaches to the implementation of geographical prioritization of prevention interventions, similar to those emerging in policy and practice, across a range of prevention budgets. METHODS: We use geographically specific mathematical models of the epidemic and response in 48 counties and major cities of Kenya to project the impact of the different geographical prioritization approaches. We compare the geographical allocation strategies with a nationally uniform approach under which the same interventions must be applied across all modelled locations. RESULTS: We find that the most extreme geographical prioritization strategy, which focuses resources exclusively to high-prevalence locations, may substantially restrict impact (41% fewer infections averted) compared to a nationally uniform approach, as opportunities for highly effective interventions for high-risk populations in lower-prevalence areas are missed. Other geographical allocation approaches, which intensify efforts in higher-prevalence areas whilst maintaining a minimum package of cost-effective interventions everywhere, consistently improve impact at all budget levels. Such strategies balance the need for greater investment in locations with the largest epidemics whilst ensuring higher-risk groups in lower-priority locations are provided with cost-effective interventions. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings serve as a warning to not be too selective in the application of prevention strategies. Further research is needed to understand how decision-makers can find the right balance between the choice of interventions, focus on high-risk populations, and geographical targeting to ensure the greatest impact of HIV prevention.

Producing HIV estimates: from global advocacy to country planning and impact measurement.

BACKGROUND: The development of global HIV estimates has been critical for understanding, advocating for and funding the HIV response. The process of generating HIV estimates has been cited as the gold standard for public health estimates. OBJECTIVE: This paper provides important lessons from an international scientific collaboration and provides a useful model for those producing public health estimates in other fields. DESIGN: Through the compilation and review of published journal articles, United Nations reports, other documents and personal experience we compiled historical information about the estimates and identified potential lessons for other public health estimation efforts. RESULTS: Through the development of core partnerships with country teams, implementers, demographers, mathematicians, epidemiologists and international organizations, UNAIDS has led a process to develop the capacity of country teams to produce internationally comparable HIV estimates. The guidance provided by these experts has led to refinements in the estimated numbers of people living with HIV, new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths over the past 20 years. A number of important updates to the methods since 1997 resulted in fluctuations in the estimated levels, trends and impact of HIV. The largest correction occurred between the 2005 and 2007 rounds with the additions of household survey data into the models. In 2001 the UNAIDS models at that time estimated there were 40 million people living with HIV. In 2016, improved models estimate there were 30 million (27.6-32.7 million) people living with HIV in 2001. CONCLUSIONS: Country ownership of the estimation tools has allowed for additional uses of the results than had the results been produced by researchers or a team in Geneva. Guidance from a reference group and input from country teams have led to critical improvements in the models over time. Those changes have improved countries' and stakeholders' understanding of the HIV epidemic.

Correction: What Is Required to End the AIDS Epidemic as a Public Health Threat by 2030? The Cost and Impact of the Fast-Track Approach.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0154893.].

What Is Required to End the AIDS Epidemic as a Public Health Threat by 2030? The Cost and Impact of the Fast-Track Approach.

In 2011 a new Investment Framework was proposed that described how the scale-up of key HIV interventions could dramatically reduce new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths in low and middle income countries by 2015. This framework included ambitious coverage goals for prevention and treatment services for 2015, resulting in a reduction of new HIV infections by more than half, in line with the goals of the declaration of the UN High Level Meeting in June 2011. However, the approach suggested a leveling in the number of new infections at about 1 million annually-far from the UNAIDS goal of ending AIDS by 2030. In response, UNAIDS has developed the Fast-Track approach that is intended to provide a roadmap to the actions required to achieve this goal. The Fast-Track approach is predicated on a rapid scale-up of focused, effective prevention and treatment services over the next 5 years and then maintaining a high level of programme implementation until 2030. Fast-Track aims to reduce new infections and AIDS-related deaths by 90% from 2010 to 2030 and proposes a set of biomedical, behavioral and enabling intervention targets for 2020 and 2030 to achieve that goal, including the rapid scale-up initiative for antiretroviral treatment known as 90-90-90. Compared to a counterfactual scenario of constant coverage for all services at early-2015 levels, the Fast-Track approach would avert 18 million HIV infections and 11 million deaths from 2016 to 2030 globally. This paper describes the analysis that produced these targets and the estimated resources needed to achieve them in low- and middle-income countries. It indicates that it is possible to achieve these goals with a significant push to achieve rapid scale-up of key interventions between now and 2020. The annual resources required from all sources would rise to US$7.4Bn in low-income countries, US$8.2Bn in lower middle-income countries and US$10.5Bn in upper-middle-income-countries by 2020 before declining approximately 9% by 2030.

How can we get close to zero? The potential contribution of biomedical prevention and the investment framework towards an effective response to HIV.

BACKGROUND: In 2011 an Investment Framework was proposed that described how the scale-up of key HIV interventions could dramatically reduce new HIV infections and deaths in low and middle income countries by 2015. This framework included ambitious coverage goals for prevention and treatment services resulting in a reduction of new HIV infections by more than half. However, it also estimated a leveling in the number of new infections at about 1 million annually after 2015. METHODS: We modeled how the response to AIDS can be further expanded by scaling up antiretroviral treatment (ART) within the framework provided by the 2013 WHO treatment guidelines. We further explored the potential contributions of new prevention technologies: 'Test and Treat', pre-exposure prophylaxis and an HIV vaccine. FINDINGS: Immediate aggressive scale up of existing approaches including the 2013 WHO guidelines could reduce new infections by 80%. A 'Test and Treat' approach could further reduce new infections. This could be further enhanced by a future highly effective pre-exposure prophylaxis and an HIV vaccine, so that a combination of all four approaches could reduce new infections to as low as 80,000 per year by 2050 and annual AIDS deaths to 260,000. INTERPRETATION: In a set of ambitious scenarios, we find that immediate implementation of the 2013 WHO antiretroviral therapy guidelines could reduce new HIV infections by 80%. Further reductions may be achieved by moving to a 'Test and Treat' approach, and eventually by adding a highly effective pre-exposure prophylaxis and an HIV vaccine, if they become available.

The impact and cost of the 2013 WHO recommendations on eligibility for antiretroviral therapy.

OBJECTIVES: The present study presents estimates of the number of people who would become newly eligible for antiretroviral therapy if all countries adopted the 2013 WHO treatment guidelines. It also shows the cost and impact that would result if coverage expanded to 80% of those eligible. METHODS: The AIDS Impact Model (AIM) and the Goals model within the Spectrum modelling system were used for these estimates. Projections of costs and AIDS deaths are based on estimates for 116 low-income and middle-income countries. Projections of impact on HIV incidence are based on simulation modelling for 24 high burden countries, with the results scaled up to represent all low-income and middle-income countries. RESULTS: If the 2013 guidelines were adopted universally, the number eligible for treatment would rise to 28.6 million in 2013. Achieving 80% coverage would mean 28 million on antiretroviral therapy by 2025, and would avert 2.9 million deaths and 3.9 million new infections from 2013 to 2025 compared with the 2010 guidelines. CONCLUSION: The 2013 guidelines significantly expand the number eligible for treatment. Reaching those newly eligible will require additional resources, but is likely to produce significant benefits.

Knowing your HIV/AIDS epidemic and tailoring an effective response: how did India do it?

Tremendous global efforts have been made to collect data on the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Yet, significant challenges remain for generating and analysing evidence to allocate resources efficiently and implement an effective AIDS response. India offers important lessons and a model for intelligent and integrated use of data on HIV/AIDS for an evidence-based response. Over the past 15 years, the number of data sources has expanded and the geographical unit of data generation, analysis and use for planning has shifted from the national to the state, district and now subdistrict level. The authors describe and critically analyse the evolution of data sets in India and how they have been utilised to better understand the epidemic, advance policy, and plan and implement an increasingly effective, well-targeted and decentralised national response to HIV and AIDS. The authors argue that India is an example of how 'know your epidemic, know your response' message can effectively be implemented at scale and presents important lessons to help other countries design their evidence generation systems.

Towards an improved investment approach for an effective response to HIV/AIDS.

Substantial changes are needed to achieve a more targeted and strategic approach to investment in the response to the HIV/AIDS epidemic that will yield long-term dividends. Until now, advocacy for resources has been done on the basis of a commodity approach that encouraged scaling up of numerous strategies in parallel, irrespective of their relative effects. We propose a strategic investment framework that is intended to support better management of national and international HIV/AIDS responses than exists with the present system. Our framework incorporates major efficiency gains through community mobilisation, synergies between programme elements, and benefits of the extension of antiretroviral therapy for prevention of HIV transmission. It proposes three categories of investment, consisting of six basic programmatic activities, interventions that create an enabling environment to achieve maximum effectiveness, and programmatic efforts in other health and development sectors related to HIV/AIDS. The yearly cost of achievement of universal access to HIV prevention, treatment, care, and support by 2015 is estimated at no less than US$22 billion. Implementation of the new investment framework would avert 12·2 million new HIV infections and 7·4 million deaths from AIDS between 2011 and 2020 compared with continuation of present approaches, and result in 29·4 million life-years gained. The framework is cost effective at $1060 per life-year gained, and the additional investment proposed would be largely offset from savings in treatment costs alone.

Estimation of antiretroviral therapy coverage: methodology and trends.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: To present the methodology used to calculate coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and review global and regional trends in ART coverage. RECENT FINDINGS: There has been a steady increase in ART coverage over the last decade with a more rapid increase in recent years. Current estimates of ART coverage are 43% for adults and 38% for children (ages 0-14 years). Methods for calculating coverage rely on good-quality patient monitoring systems in countries, and well informed models are needed to estimate the number of people in need of treatment. SUMMARY: The estimated coverage rates show that ART programs have improved over the past 8 years; however, approximately 58% (53-60%) of those people in need of ART are still not on treatment. High quality data are needed to accurately measure changes in ART coverage.

The global impact of scaling up HIV/AIDS prevention programs in low- and middle-income countries.

A strong, global commitment to expanded prevention programs targeted at sexual transmission and transmission among injecting drug users, started now, could avert 28 million new HIV infections between 2005 and 2015. This figure is more than half of the new infections that might otherwise occur during that period in 125 low- and middle-income countries. Although preventing these new infections would require investing about U.S.$122 billion over this period, it would reduce future needs for treatment and care. Our analysis suggests that it will cost about U.S.$3900 to prevent each new infection, but that this will produce a savings of U.S.$4700 in forgone treatment and care costs. Thus, greater spending on prevention now would not only prevent more than half the new infections that would occur from 2005 to 2015 but would actually produce a net financial saving as future costs for treatment and care are averted.

Assessment of the validity of and adherence to sexually transmitted infection algorithms at a female sex worker clinic in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire.

BACKGROUND: Algorithms for sexually transmitted infection (STI) case management were designed in a female sex worker (FSW) clinic in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire, in 1993. GOAL: The goal was to evaluate the long-term validity of the algorithms for returning clients of the clinic and to assess the adherence of the health workers to their application. STUDY DESIGN: A cross-sectional study was conducted from 1999 to 2000 among FSWs attending as returning clients. RESULTS: The prevalences of genital infections were as follows: Neisseria gonorrhoeae and/or Chlamydia trachomatis, 8.2%; Trichomonas vaginalis, 16.7%; bacterial vaginosis, 62.3%; and Candida albicans, 6.2%. The sensitivity of the algorithms was 20% and the positive predictive value was 14% for cervical infection. The proportion of cases for which all steps of the algorithm were correctly applied was 30%. CONCLUSION: Algorithms for the treatment of STIs in FSWs should be periodically reevaluated and adapted to the changing population. To maintain healthcare workers' adherence to the algorithms, supervision should be ongoing and reinforced.