Which medicare advantage enrollees are at highest one-year mortality risk?

BACKGROUND: While a number of tools exist to predict mortality among older adults, less research has described the characteristics of Medicare Advantage (MA) enrollees at higher risk for 1 year mortality. OBJECTIVES: To describe the characteristics of MA enrollees at higher mortality risk using patient survey data. RESEARCH DESIGN: Retrospective cohort. SUBJECTS: MA enrollees completing the 2019 MA Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems (CAHPS) Survey. MEASURES: Linked demographic, health, and mortality data from a sample of MA enrollees were used to predict 1-year mortality risk and describe enrollee characteristics across levels of predicted mortality risk. RESULTS: The mortality model had a 0.80 c-statistic. Mortality risks were skewed: 6 % of enrollees had a ≥ 10 % 1-year mortality risk, while 45 % of enrollees had 1 % to < 5 % 1-year mortality risk. Among the high-risk (≥10 %) group, 47 % were age 85+ versus 12 % among those with mortality risk <5 %. 79 % were in fair or poor self-rated health versus 29 % among those with mortality risk of <5 %. 71 % reported needing urgent care in the prior 6 months versus 40 % among those with a mortality risk of 1 to<5 %. CONCLUSIONS: Relatively few older adults enrolled in MA are at high 1-year mortality risk. Nonetheless, MA enrollees over age 85, in fair or poor health, or with recent urgent care needs are far more likely to be in a high mortality risk group.

Assessing the accuracy of race-and-ethnicity data in the Outcome and Assessment Information Set.

BACKGROUND: Limitations in the quality of race-and-ethnicity information in Medicare's data systems constrain efforts to assess disparities in care among older Americans. Using demographic information from standardized patient assessments may be an efficient way to enhance the accuracy and completeness of race-and-ethnicity information in Medicare's data systems, but it is critical to first establish the accuracy of these data as they may be prone to inaccurate observer-reported or third-party-based information. This study evaluates the accuracy of patient-level race-and-ethnicity information included in the Outcome and Assessment Information Set (OASIS) submitted by home health agencies. METHODS: We compared 2017-2022 OASIS-D race-and-ethnicity data to gold-standard self-reported information from the Medicare Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems® survey in a matched sample of 304,804 people with Medicare coverage. We also compared OASIS data to indirect estimates of race-and-ethnicity generated using the Medicare Bayesian Improved Surname and Geocoding (MBISG) 2.1.1 method and to existing Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) administrative records. RESULTS: Compared with existing CMS administrative data, OASIS data are far more accurate for Hispanic, Asian American and Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander, and White race-and-ethnicity; slightly less accurate for American Indian or Alaska Native race-and-ethnicity; and similarly accurate for Black race-and-ethnicity. However, MBISG 2.1.1 accuracy exceeds that of both OASIS and CMS administrative data for every racial-and-ethnic category. Patterns of inconsistent reporting of racial-and-ethnic information among people for whom there were multiple observations in the OASIS and Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems (CAHPS) datasets suggest that some of the inaccuracies in OASIS data may result from observation-based reporting that lessens correspondence with self-reported data. CONCLUSIONS: When health record data on race-and-ethnicity includes observer-reported information, it can be less accurate than both true self-report and a high-performing imputation approach. Efforts are needed to encourage collection of true self-reported data and explicit record-level data on the source of race-and-ethnicity information.

The Contribution of First-name Information to the Accuracy of Racial-and-Ethnic Imputations Varies by Sex and Race-and-Ethnicity Among Medicare Beneficiaries.

BACKGROUND: Data on race-and-ethnicity that are needed to measure health equity are often limited or missing. The importance of first name and sex in predicting race-and-ethnicity is not well understood. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to compare the contribution of first-name information to the accuracy of basic and more complex racial-and-ethnic imputations that incorporate surname information. RESEARCH DESIGN: We imputed race-and-ethnicity in a sample of Medicare beneficiaries under 2 scenarios: (1) with only sparse predictors (name, address, sex) and (2) with a rich set (adding limited administrative race-and-ethnicity, demographics, and insurance). SUBJECTS: A total of 284,627 Medicare beneficiaries who completed the 2014 Medicare Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems survey and reported race-and-ethnicity were included. RESULTS: Hispanic, non-Hispanic Asian/Pacific Islander, and non-Hispanic White racial-and-ethnic imputations are more accurate for males than females under both sparse-predictor and rich-predictor scenarios; adding first-name information increases accuracy more for females than males. In contrast, imputations of non-Hispanic Black race-and-ethnicity are similarly accurate for females and males, and first names increase accuracy equally for each sex in both sparse-predictor and rich-predictor scenarios. For all 4 racial-and-ethnic groups, incorporating first-name information improves prediction accuracy more under the sparse-predictor scenario than under the rich-predictor scenario. CONCLUSION: First-name information contributes more to the accuracy of racial-and-ethnic imputations in a sparse-predictor scenario than in a rich-predictor scenario and generally narrows sex gaps in accuracy of imputations.

The Effect of Hospice on End-of-Life Costs for Terminal Medicare Patients With HIV.

One-quarter of annual Medicare expenses in the traditional program (non-Medicare Advantage) are expended for 5% of Medicare enrollees, with much of this expenditure occurring in the last year of life. Hospice use may reduce end-of-life costs. However, evidence has been inconclusive due to sample selection and differences in insurance coverage for hospice. Claims data for HIV-positive Californians enrolled in Medicare who died in the period 2008 to 2010 were used to examine the relationship between hospice use and costs in the last 6 months of life. Logit estimates related hospice use to sickness levels and demographics. Inpatient and outpatient costs were analyzed separately. Logit regressions examined hospitalization probability. Robust regressions were used to examine the determinants of conditional inpatient costs and non-inpatient costs. Bootstrapped post-estimates were then used to determine the marginal probability of costs for the sample by hospice use. Hospice users have greater disease burden and are less likely to be African American. Controlling for disease burden, hospice users would have non-inpatient costs that were $14 771 greater than hospice non-users, but inpatient costs that were $20 522 lower. Thus, hospice reduces costs on net. Hospice is chosen by patients with more comorbidities. Controlling for these comorbidities, hospice use is associated with lower inpatient costs, greater non-inpatient costs and reduced end-of-life costs.

Association between Federally Qualified Health Center usage and emergency department utilization among California's HIV-infected Medicaid beneficiaries, 2009.

Federally Qualified Health Centers (FQHCs) have long been important sources of care for publicly insured people living with HIV. FQHC users have historically used emergency departments (EDs) at a higher-than-average rate. This paper examines whether this greater use relates to access difficulties in FQHCs or to characteristics of FQHC users. Zero-inflated Poisson models were used to estimate how FQHC use related to the odds of being an ED user and annual number of ED visits, using claims data on 6,284 HIV-infected California Medicaid beneficiaries in 2008-2009. FQHC users averaged significantly greater numbers of annual ED visits than non-FQHC users and those with no outpatient usage (1.89, 1.59, and 1.70, respectively; P = 0.043). FQHC users had higher odds of being ED users (OR = 1.14; 95%CI 1.02-1.27). In multivariable analyses, FQHC clients had higher odds of ED usage controlling for demographic and service characteristics (OR = 1.15; 95%CI 1.02-1.30) but not when medical characteristics were included (OR = 1.08; 95%CI 0.95-1.24). Among ED users, FQHC use was not significantly associated with the number of ED visits in our models (rate ratio (RR) = 1.00; 95%CI 0.87-1.15). The overall difference in mean annual ED visits observed between FQHC and non-FQHC groups was reduced to insignificance (1.75; 95% CI 1.59-1.92 vs 1.70; 95%CI 1.54-1.85) after adjusting for demographic, service, and medical characteristics. Overall, FQHC users had higher ED utilization than non-FQHC users, but the disparity was largely driven by differences in underlying medical characteristics.

Sexually Transmitted Infection Testing of HIV-Positive Medicare and Medicaid Enrollees Falls Short of Guidelines.

BACKGROUND: Men who have sex with men with HIV have high sexually transmitted infection (STI) incidence. Thus, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommends at least yearly STI screening of HIV-infected individuals. METHODS: We calculated testing rates for syphilis, chlamydia, and gonorrhea among HIV-positive Californians with Medicare or Medicaid insurance in 2010. Logistic regressions estimated how testing for each bacterial STI relates to demographic and provider factors. RESULTS: Fewer than two-thirds of HIV-positive Medicare and fewer than three-quarters of Medicaid enrollees received a syphilis test in 2010. Screenings for chlamydia or gonorrhea were less frequent: approximately 30% of Medicare enrollees were tested for chlamydia or gonorrhea in 2010, but higher proportions of Medicaid enrollees were tested (45%-46%). Only 34% of HIV-positive Medicare enrollees who were tested for syphilis were also screened for chlamydia or gonorrhea on the same day. Nearly half of Medicaid enrollees were tested for all 3 STIs on the same day. Patients whose providers had more HIV experience had higher STI testing rates. CONCLUSIONS: Testing rates for chlamydia and gonorrhea infection are low, despite the increase in these infections among people living with HIV and their close association with HIV transmission. Interventions to increase STI testing include the following: prompts in the medical record to routinely conduct syphilis testing on blood drawn for viral load monitoring, opt-out consent for STI testing, and provider education about the clinical importance of STIs among HIV-positive patients. Last, it is crucial to change financial incentives that discourage nucleic acid amplification testing for rectal chlamydia and gonorrhea infections.

The cost of comorbidities in treatment for HIV/AIDS in California.

BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral therapy has increased longevity for people living with HIV (PLWH). As a result, PLWH increasingly experience the common diseases of aging and the resources needed to manage these comorbidities are increasing. This paper characterizes the number and types of comorbidities diagnosed among PLWH covered by Medicare and examines how non-HIV comorbidities relate to outpatient, inpatient, and pharmaceutical expenditures. METHODS: The study examined Medicare expenditures for 9767 HIV-positive Californians enrolled in Medicare in 2010 (7208 persons dually covered by Medicare and Medicaid and 2559 with Medicare only). Costs included both out of pocket costs and those paid by Medicare and Medicaid. Comorbidities were determined by examining diagnosis codes. FINDINGS: Medicare expenditures for Californians with HIV averaged $47,036 in 2010, with drugs accounting for about 2/3 of the total and outpatient costs 19% of the total. Inpatient costs accounted for 18% of the total. About 64% of the sample had at least one comorbidity in addition to HIV. Cross-validation showed that adding information on comorbidities to the quantile regression improved the accuracy of predicted individual expenditures. Non-HIV comorbidities relating to health habits-diabetes, hypertension, liver disease (hepatitis C), renal insufficiency-are common among PLWH. Cancer was relatively rare, but added significantly to cost. Comorbidities had little effect on pharmaceutical costs, which were dominated by the cost of antiretroviral therapy, but had a major effect on hospital admission. CONCLUSIONS: Comorbidities are prevalent among PLWH and add substantially to treatment costs for PLWH. Many of these comorbidities relate to health habits that could be addressed with additional prevention in ambulatory care, thereby improving health outcomes and ultimately reducing costs.

Transitioning From Medicaid Disability Coverage to Long-Term Medicare Coverage: The Case of People Living With HIV/AIDS in California.

Medicaid can serve as a bridge to Medicare coverage for the long-term disabled with sufficient covered work experience. We perform multinomial logistic regression on 2007-2010 Medicare and Medicaid claims data to examine transitions to Medicare for people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) in California who had Medicaid coverage in 2007. We find only 16% had obtained Medicare coverage by 2010. African-Americans, women, individuals with schizophrenia diagnoses, alcohol or substance abuse disorders, and any physical comorbidity were significantly less likely than others to obtain Medicare (p < 0.001). This study contributes new information on the impact of eligibility requirements for Medicare long-term disability insurance for PLWHA. About one-third of PLWHA under age 65 are covered by Medicaid. Many PLWHA get stuck in Medicaid because their disability prevents them from obtaining the additional employment experience needed to qualify for Medicare.

Quality of Care for HIV/AIDS and for Primary Prevention by HIV Specialists and Nonspecialists.

The role of HIV specialists in providing primary care to persons living with HIV/AIDS is evolving, given their increased incidence of comorbidities. Multivariate logit analysis compared compliance with sentinel preventive screening tests and interventions among publicly insured Californians with and without access to HIV specialists in 2010. Quality-of-care indicators [visit frequency, CD4 and viral load (VL) assessments, influenza vaccine, tuberculosis (TB) testing, lipid profile, glucose blood test, and Pap smears for women] were related to patient characteristics and provider HIV caseload. There were 9377 adult Medicare enrollees (71% also had Medicaid coverage) and 2076 enrollees with only Medicaid coverage. Adjusted for patient characteristics, patients seeing providers with greater HIV caseloads (>50 HIV patients) were more likely to meet visit frequency guidelines in both Medicare [98%; confidence interval (CI 97.5-98.2) and Medicaid (97%; CI 96.2-98.0), compared to 60% (CI 57.1-62.3) and 45% (CI 38.3-50.4), respectively, seeing providers without large HIV caseloads (p < 0.001). Patients seeing providers with larger caseloads were significantly more likely to have CD4 (p < 0.001), VL (p < 0.001), and TB testing (p < 0.05). A larger percentage of patients seeing large-volume Medicare providers received influenza vaccinations. Provider caseload was unrelated to lipid or glucose assessments or Pap Smears for women. Patients with access to large-volume providers were more likely to meet clinical guidelines for visits, CD4, VL, tuberculosis testing, and influenza vaccinations, and were not less likely to receive primary preventive care. Substantial insufficiencies remain in both monitoring to assess viral suppression and in preventive care.