Intra-urban risk assessment of occupational injuries and illnesses associated with current and projected climate: Evidence from three largest Australian cities.

BACKGROUND: Increased risk of occupational injuries and illnesses (OI) is associated with ambient temperature. However, most studies have reported the average impacts within cities, states, or provinces at broader scales. METHODS: We assessed the intra-urban risk of OI associated with ambient temperature in three Australian cities at statistical area level 3 (SA3). We collected daily workers' compensation claims data and gridded meteorological data from July 1, 2005, to June 30, 2018. Heat index was used as the primary temperature metric. We performed a two-stage time series analysis: we generated location-specific estimates using Distributed Lag Non-Linear Models (DLNM) and estimated the cumulative effects with multivariate meta-analysis. The risk was estimated at moderate heat (90th percentile) and extreme heat (99th percentile). Subgroup analyses were conducted to identify vulnerable groups of workers. Further, the OI risk in the future was estimated for two projected periods: 2016-2045 and 2036-2065. RESULTS: The cumulative risk of OI was 3.4% in Greater Brisbane, 9.5% in Greater Melbourne, and 8.9% in Greater Sydney at extreme heat. The western inland regions in Greater Brisbane (17.4%) and Greater Sydney (32.3%) had higher risk of OI for younger workers, workers in outdoor and indoor industries, and workers reporting injury claims. The urbanized SA3 regions posed a higher risk (19.3%) for workers in Greater Melbourne. The regions were generally at high risk for young workers and illness-related claims. The projected risk of OI increased with time in climate change scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a comprehensive spatial profile of OI risk associated with hot weather conditions across three cities in Australia. Risk assessment at the intra-urban level revealed strong spatial patterns in OI risk distribution due to heat exposure. These findings provide much-needed scientific evidence for work, health, and safety regulators, industries, unions, and workers to design and implement location-specific preventative measures.

Lifetime costs of invasive meningococcal disease: A Markov model approach.

INTRODUCTION: Invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) is an uncommon but life-threatening infectious disease associated with high sequelae rates in young children and an increased risk of mortality in adolescents and young adults. Funding decisions to reject inclusion of new meningococcal serogroup B vaccines on national immunisation schedules have been criticised by IMD patients, their families, paediatricians and charity organisations. We aim to estimate the lifetime costs of IMD with the best available evidence to inform cost-effectiveness analyses. METHODS: A Markov model was developed taking healthcare system and societal perspectives. A range of data including age-specific mortality rates, and probabilities of IMD-related sequelae were derived from a systematic review and meta-analysis. All currencies were inflated to year 2017 prices by using consumer price indexes in local countries and converted to US dollars by applying purchasing power parities conversion rates. Expert panels were used to inform the model development process including key structural choices and model validations. RESULTS: The estimated lifetime societal cost is US$319,896.74 per IMD case including the direct healthcare cost of US$65,035.49. Using a discount rate of 5%, the costs are US$54,278.51 and US$13,968.40 respectively. Chronic renal failure and limb amputation result in the highest direct healthcare costs per patient. Patients aged < 5 years incur the higher healthcare expenditure compared with other age groups. The costing results are sensitive to the discount rate, disease incidence, acute admission costs, and sequelae rates and costs of brain injuries and epilepsy. CONCLUSIONS: IMD can result in substantial costs to the healthcare system and society. Understanding the costs of care can assist decision-making bodies in evaluating cost-effectiveness of new vaccine programs.

Increasing trends in hospitalisations due to atrial fibrillation in Australia from 1993 to 2013.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to characterise hospitalisations due to atrial fibrillation (AF) compared with two other common cardiovascular conditions, myocardial infarction (MI) and heart failure (HF), in addition to the associated economic burden of these hospitalisations and contribution of AF-related procedures. METHODS: The primary outcome measure was the rate of increase of AF, MI and HF hospitalisations from 1993 to 2013. The rate of increase of AF-related procedures including cardioversion and ablation were also collected, in addition to direct costs associated with hospitalisations for each of these three conditions. RESULTS: AF hospitalisations increased 295% over the 21-year period to a total of 61 424 in 2013. In comparison, MI and HF hospitalisations increased by only 73% and 39%, respectively, over the same period. Considering population changes, there was an annual increase in AF hospitalisations of 5.2% (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.052; 95% CI 1.046 to 1.059; p<0.001). In contrast, there was a 2.2% increase per annum for MI (IRR 1.022; 95% CI 1.017 to 1.027; p<0.001) and negligible annual change for HF hospitalisations (IRR 1.000; 95% CI 0.997 to 1.002; p=0.78). Cardioversion and AF ablation increased by 10% and 26% annually, respectively. AF hospitalisation costs rose by 479% over the 21-year period, an increase that was more than double that of MI and HF. CONCLUSIONS: The burden of AF hospitalisations continues to rise unabated. AF has now surpassed both MI and HF hospitalisations and represents a growing cost burden. New models of healthcare delivery are required to stem this growing healthcare burden.

Costs of Invasive Meningococcal Disease: A Global Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: Invasive meningococcal disease remains a public health concern because of its rapid onset and significant risk of death and long-term disability. New meningococcal serogroup B and combination serogroup ACWY vaccines are being considered for publicly funded immunization programs in many countries. Contemporary costing data associated with invasive meningococcal disease are required to inform cost-effectiveness analyses. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to estimate costs and resource utilization associated with acute infection and the long-term care of invasive meningococcal disease. DATA SOURCES AND METHODS: PubMed, EMBASE, The Cochrane Library, health economic databases, and electronically available conference abstracts were searched. Studies reporting any costs associated with acute infection and long-term sequelae of invasive meningococcal disease in English were included. All costs were converted into purchasing power parity-adjusted estimates [international dollars (I$)] using the Campbell and Cochrane Economics Methods Group and the Evidence for Policy and Practice Information and Coordinating Centre cost converter. RESULTS: Fourteen studies met our eligibility criteria and were included. The mean costs of acute admission ranged from I$1629 to I$50,796, with an incremental cost of I$16,378. The mean length of hospital stay was reported to be 6-18 days in multiple studies. The average costs reported for readmissions ranged from I$7905 to I$15,908. Key variables such as the presence of sequelae were associated with higher hospitalization costs and longer inpatient stay. No studies estimated direct non-healthcare costs and productivity loss. Ten studies reported only unadjusted mean values without using appropriate statistical methods for adjustment. CONCLUSIONS: Invasive meningococcal disease can result in substantial costs to healthcare systems. However, costing data on long-term follow-up and indirect costs used to populate health economic models are lacking.

Adolescent values for immunisation programs in Australia: A discrete choice experiment.

OBJECTIVES: The importance of adolescent engagement in health decisions and public health programs such as immunisation is becoming increasingly recognised. Understanding adolescent preferences and further identifying barriers and facilitators for immunisation acceptance is critical to the success of adolescent immunisation programs. This study applied a discrete choice experiment (DCE) to assess vaccination preferences in adolescents. METHODS: This study was conducted as a cross-sectional, national online survey in Australian adolescents. The DCE survey evaluated adolescent vaccination preferences. Six attributes were assessed including disease severity, target for protection, price, location of vaccination provision, potential side effects and vaccine delivery method. A mixed logit model was used to analyse DCE data. RESULTS: This survey was conducted between December 2014 and January 2015. Of 800 adolescents aged 15 to 19 years, stronger preferences were observed overall for: vaccination in the case of a life threatening illness (p<0.001), lower price vaccinations (p<0.001), mild but common side effects (p = 0.004), delivery via a skin patch (p<0.001) and being administered by a family practitioner (p<0.001). Participants suggested that they and their families would be willing to pay AU$394.28 (95%CI: AU$348.40 to AU$446.92) more for a vaccine targeting a life threatening illness than a mild-moderate illness, AU$37.94 (95%CI: AU$19.22 to AU$57.39) more for being vaccinated at a family practitioner clinic than a council immunisation clinic, AU$23.01 (95%CI: AU$7.12 to AU$39.24) more for common but mild and resolving side effects compared to rare but serious side effects, and AU$51.80 (95%CI: AU$30.42 to AU$73.70) more for delivery via a skin patch than injection. CONCLUSIONS: Consideration of adolescent preferences may result in improved acceptance of, engagement in and uptake of immunisation programs targeted for this age group.

Falls in hospitalized patients: can nursing information systems data predict falls?

Falls among inpatients are the most frequently reported critical incidents in hospitals and can have tragic consequences that affect morbidity and mortality. The present study aimed to determine whether certain nursing units of care identified on patient care plans can be used to predict falls among hospitalized inpatients. A retrospective analysis of 7167 inpatient admissions in the 2002 calendar year was conducted. Faller status was ascertained from the hospital's accident and incident monitoring system, and nursing units of care activated in the hospital's nursing information system were identified. Twelve nursing units of care predicted falls. Logistic regression analyses showed that nursing units of care related to patient safety, confusion, incontinence, medication, mobility, and sleep were significant risk factors for falls among inpatients. The number of nursing units of care activated also predicted falls. Data collected from nursing information systems can be used to identify patients at high risk of falls.

Effect of social networks on 10 year survival in very old Australians: the Australian longitudinal study of aging.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: To examine if social networks with children, relatives, friends, and confidants predict survival in older Australians over 10 years after controlling for a range of demographic, health, and lifestyle variables. DESIGN: Prospective longitudinal cohort study (the Australian longitudinal study of aging) SETTING: Adelaide, South Australia. PARTICIPANTS: 1477 persons aged 70 years or more living in the community and residential care facilities. MAIN RESULTS: After controlling for a range of demographic, health, and lifestyle variables, greater networks with friends were protective against mortality in the 10 year follow up period. The hazard ratio for participants in the highest tertile of friends networks compared with participants in the lowest group was 0.78 (95%CI 0.65 to 0.92). A smaller effect of greater networks with confidants (hazard ratio = 0.84; 95%CI = 0.71 to 0.98) was seen. The effects of social networks with children and relatives were not significant with respect to survival over the following decade. CONCLUSIONS: Survival time may be enhanced by strong social networks. Among older Australians, these may be important in lengthening survival.

An outreach geriatric medication advisory service in residential aged care: a randomised controlled trial of case conferencing.

BACKGROUND: efficient strategies are needed to provide specialist advice in nursing homes to ensure quality medical care. We describe a case conference intervention involving a multidisciplinary team of health professionals. OBJECTIVES: to evaluate the impact of multidisciplinary case conferences on the appropriateness of medications and on patient behaviours in high-level residential aged care facilities. DESIGN: cluster-randomised controlled trial. SETTING: ten high-level aged care facilities. PARTICIPANTS: 154 residents with medication problems and/or challenging behaviours were selected for case conference by residential care staff. INTERVENTION: two multidisciplinary case conferences involving the resident's general practitioner, a geriatrician, a pharmacist and residential care staff were held at the nursing home for each resident. MEASUREMENTS: outcomes were assessed at baseline and 3 months. The primary outcome was the Medication Appropriateness Index (MAI). The behaviour of each resident was assessed via the Nursing Home Behaviour Problem Scale. RESULTS: 45 residents died before follow-up. Medication appropriateness improved in the intervention group [MAI mean change 4.1, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.1-6.1] compared with the control group (MAI mean change 0.4, 95% CI -0.4-1.2; P < 0.001). There was a significant reduction in the MAI for benzodiazepines (mean change control -0.38, 95% CI -1.02-0.27 versus intervention 0.73, 95% CI 0.16-1.30; P = 0.017). Resident behaviours were unchanged after the intervention and the improved medication appropriateness did not extend to other residents in the facility. CONCLUSION: multidisciplinary case conferences in nursing homes can improve care. Outreach specialist services can be delivered without direct patient contact and achieve improvements in prescribing.

Does the addition of a pharmacist transition coordinator improve evidence-based medication management and health outcomes in older adults moving from the hospital to a long-term care facility? Results of a randomized, controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Poorly executed transfers of older patients from hospitals to long-term care facilities carry the risk of fragmentation of care, poor clinical outcomes, inappropriate use of emergency department services, and hospital readmission. OBJECTIVE: This study was conducted to assess the impact of adding a pharmacist transition coordinator on evidence-based medication management and health outcomes in older adults undergoing first-time transfer from a hospital to a long-term care facility. METHODS: This randomized, single-blind, controlled trial enrolled hospitalized older adults awaiting transfer to a long-term residential care facility for the first time. Patients were randomized either to receive the services of the pharmacist transition coordinator (intervention group) or to undergo the usual hospital discharge process (control group). The intervention included medication-management transfer summaries from hospitals, timely coordinated medication reviews by accredited community pharmacists, and case conferences with physicians and pharmacists. The primary outcome was the quality of prescribing, measured using the Medication Appropriateness Index (MAI). Secondary outcomes were emergency department visits, hospital readmissions, adverse drug events, falls, worsening mobility, worsening behaviors, increased confusion, and worsening pain. RESULTS: One hundred ten older adults (67 women, 43 men; mean [SD] age, 82.7 [6.4] years) were recruited from 3 metropolitan hospitals and assigned to 85 metropolitan long-term care facilities. Fifty-six patients were randomized to the intervention group and 54 to the control group; 44 patients in each group were evaluable at 8-week follow-up. There were no significant differences in baseline characteristics between treatment groups, with the exception of the number of medications discontinued during hospitalization: a mean of 1.1 more drugs was discontinued in the control group compared with the intervention group (P = 0.011). The majority of patients (35 [62.5%] in the intervention group, 41 [76.0%] in the control group) changed physicians as part of the transition to a long-term care facility. At 8-week follow-up, there was no change in MAI from baseline in the intervention group, whereas it had worsened in the control group (mean [95% CI], 2.5 [1.4-3.7] vs 6.5 [3.9-9.1], respectively; P = 0.007). Patients who received the intervention and were alive at follow-up exhibited a significant protective effect of the intervention against worsening pain (relative risk ratio [95% CI], 0.55 [0.32-0.94]; P = 0.023) and hospital usage (i.e., the combination of emergency department visits and hospital readmissions) (0.38 [0.15-0.99]; P = 0.035), but did not differ from control patients in terms of adverse drug events (1.05 [0.66-1.68]), falls (1.19 [0.71-1.99]), worsening mobility (0.39 [0.13-1.15]), worsening behaviors (0.52 [0.25-1.10]), or increased confusion (0.59 [0.28-1.22]). When data for patients who had died were included, the intervention had no effect on hospital usage in all patients (0.58 [0.28-1.21]). CONCLUSIONS: Older people transferring from hospital to a long-term care facility are vulnerable to fragmentation of care and adverse events. In this study, use of a pharmacist transition coordinator improved aspects of inappropriate use of medicines across health sectors.

Disability in older Australians: projections for 2006-2031.

OBJECTIVES: To provide detailed projections for the prevalence of disability and associated common health conditions for older Australians for the period 2006-2031. DESIGN: Secondary analyses of datasets (national 1998 Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers; and projections of Australia's population from 2006-2031) collected by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. OUTCOME MEASURES: (i) The projected number of people with differing levels of disability (core activity restrictions in self-care, mobility or communication) up to 2031; (ii) The projected number of people with the main health conditions associated with disability in 2006 and 2031. RESULTS: Projections indicate a 70% increase in the number of older people with profound disability over the next 30 years. The main conditions associated with profound or severe core activity restriction in older Australians are musculoskeletal, nervous system, circulatory and respiratory conditions and stroke. CONCLUSIONS: In the future, there will be many more older Australians requiring assistance because of disability. This will present a challenge to families, friends, volunteers and paid service providers. The Australian planning ratio for residential aged-care services and community aged care services should be changed to take account of the shift to an older population with greater need of support.

Social networks among older Australians: a validation of Glass's model.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of the study was to validate a set of measures of social networks that will be useful in epidemiological studies of the health of older persons. METHODS: Confirmatory factor analysis was used to test a multi-dimensional model of social networks. Data were drawn from The Australian Longitudinal Study of Ageing, conducted in the greater metropolitan area of Adelaide, South Australia. Participants were 1477 persons aged > or = 70 years who lived in the community or an institution and took part in the Australian Longitudinal Study of Ageing. Social networks with children, other relatives, friends and confidants were considered. Demographic indicators of gender, age group, income, education, marital status and place of residence were also measured, and social networks were compared for categories of these variables. RESULTS: Networks with children, relatives, friends and confidants were substantiated in these analyses. Differences in networks between categories of the demographic variables were evident. DISCUSSION: Adoption of the proposed measures will allow greater comparability between studies of older persons. This could lead to a better understanding of the effect of specific social networks upon health.