Liver cirrhosis mortality at national and provincial levels in Iran between 1990 and 2015: A meta regression analysis.

BACKGROUND: Liver cirrhosis mortality number has increased over the last decades. We aimed to estimate the liver cirrhosis mortality rate and its trends for the first time by sex, age, geographical distribution, and cause in Iran. METHOD: Iranian Death Registration System, along with demographic (Complete and Summary Birth History, Maternal Age Cohort and Period methods) and statistical methods (Spatio-temporal and Gaussian process regression models) were used to address the incompleteness and misclassification and uncertainty of death registration system to estimate annual cirrhosis mortality rate. Percentages of deaths were proportionally redistributed into cirrhosis due to hepatitis B, C and alcohol use based on the data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2010 study. RESULTS: Liver cirrhosis mortality in elder patients was 12 times higher than that in younger patients at national level in 2015. Over the 26 years, liver cirrhosis mortality in males has increased more than that in females. Plus, the percentage of change in age adjusted mortality rate at provincial levels varied between decreases of 64.53% to nearly 17% increase. Mortality rate has increased until 2002 and then decreased until 2015.The province with highest mortality rate in 2015 has nearly two times greater rate compare to the lowest. More than 60% of liver cirrhosis mortality cases at national level are caused by hepatitis B and C infection. The rate of hepatitis B mortality is four times more than that from hepatitis C. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrated an increasing and then decreasing pattern in cirrhosis mortality that could be due to national vaccination of hepatitis B program. However monitoring, early detection and treatment of risk factors of cirrhosis, mainly in high risk age groups and regions are essential. Cirrhosis mortality could be diminished by using new non-invasive methods of cirrhosis screening, hepatitis B vaccination, definite treatment of hepatitis C.

Equity Chasm in Megacities: Five Leading Causes of Death in Tehran.

BACKGROUND: Inequity in megacities is a real concern in public health perspective. Tehran is a megacity with more than 8 million population that is divided into 22 regions (counties) with considerable diversity in socioeconomic status. On the other hand, spatial cluster detection is an important tool in disease surveillance to identify areas of elevated risk and to generate hypotheses about disease or mortality etiology. The present research aims to identify high or low-risk clusters for five non-communicable leading causes of death in 22 regions of Tehran province. METHODS: Cause-specific mortality rates were extracted from Behesht-e-Zahra registry system for Tehran province in 2011. Spatial scan statistic as a most common method in spatial cluster detection was chosen to detect clusters with elevated risk of death. Given the observed and expected number death in each region, a log likelihood ratio (LLR) criterion was used to test whether a cluster is significant. RESULT: Two high-risk and two low-risk clusters were detected for each cause of death. All these clusters were statistically significant with P value less than 0.05. Mapping these clusters shows substantial differences between regions in Tehran. For mortality due to ischemic heart diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, hypertensive diseases, respiratory diseases, and stomach cancer, the high-risk clusters concentrated in southern half of Tehran and low-risk clusters were in northern half of Tehran. In the most situations, regions 2, 3 and 5 seemed to have lower rate of death comparing with other regions. On the other hand, regions, 16, 19 and 20 were in the high rate clusters. CONCLUSION: There was substantial disparity between regions of Tehran for five non-communicable causes of death studied in this article. Identifying factors affecting the observed differences is useful to set effective preventive interventions and can be investigated in future researches.