Impact of the 2008 economic crisis on the burden of hepatitis B and C diseases in Southern European countries.

BACKGROUND: The economic crisis that began in 2008 has severely affected Southern (Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain) Western European (SWE) countries of Western Europe (WE) and may have affected ongoing efforts to eliminate viral hepatitis. This study was conducted to investigate the impact of the economic crisis on the burden of HBV and HCV disease. METHODS: Global Burden of Diseases 2019 data were used to analyse the rates of epidemiological metrics of HBV and HCV acute and chronic infections in SWE and WE. Time series modelling was performed to quantify the impact of healthcare expenditure on the time trend of HBV and HCV disease burden in 2000-2019. RESULTS: Declining trends in incidence and prevalence rates of acute HBV (aHBV) and chronic HBV were observed in SWE and WE, with the pace of decline being slower in the post-austerity period (2010-2019) and mortality due to HBV stabilised in SWE. Acute HCV (aHCV) metrics and chronic HCV incidence and mortality showed a stable trend in SWE and WE, whereas the prevalence of chronic HCV showed an oscillating trend, decreasing in WE in 2010-2019 (p < 0.001). Liver cancer due to both hepatitis infections showed a stagnant burden over time. An inverse association was observed between health expenditure and metrics of both acute and chronic HBV and HCV. CONCLUSIONS: Epidemiological metrics for HBV and HCV showed a slower pace of decline in the post-austerity period with better improvement for HBV, a stabilisation of mortality and a stagnant burden for liver cancer due to both hepatitis infections. The economic crisis of 2008 had a negative impact on the burden of hepatitis B and C. Elimination of HBV and HCV by 2030 will be a major challenge in the SWE countries.

Regional and sex inequalities of avoidable mortality in Italy: A time trend analysis.

Objectives: This study provides a comprehensive analysis of avoidable mortality (AM), treatable mortality (TM), and preventable mortality (PM) across Italy, focusing on region- and gender-specific inequalities over a 14-year period. Study design: Time-trend analysis (2006-2019). Methods: The study was conducted using mortality data from the Italian Institute of Statistics to evaluate the extent and patterns of AM, TM, and PM in Italy. Biennial age-standardized mortality rates were calculated by gender and region using the joint OECD/Eurostat list. Results: The overall AM rates showed a large reduction from 2006/7 (221.0 per 100,000) to 2018/9 (166.4 per 100,000). Notably, females consistently displayed lower AM rates than males. Furthermore, both gender differences and the North-South gap of AM decreased during the period studied. The regions with the highest AM rates fluctuated throughout the study period. The highest percentage decrease in AM from 2006/7 to 2018/9, for both males (-41.3 %) and females (-34.2 %), was registered in the autonomous province of Trento, while the lowest reduction was observed in Molise for males (-17.4 %) and in Marche for females (-10.0 %). Conclusions: Remarkable gender and regional differences in AM between 2006 and 2019 have been recorded in Italy, although they have decreased over years. Continuous monitoring of AM and the implementation of region- and gender-specific interventions is essential to provide valuable insights for both policy and public health practice. This study contributes to the efforts to improve health equity between Italian regions.

Time-Trends in Air Pollution Impact on Health in Italy, 1990-2019: An Analysis From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Objectives: We explored temporal variations in disease burden of ambient particulate matter 2.5 µm or less in diameter (PM2.5) and ozone in Italy using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Methods: We compared temporal changes and percent variations (95% Uncertainty Intervals [95% UI]) in rates of disability adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost, years lived with disability and mortality from 1990 to 2019, and variations in pollutant-attributable burden with those in the overall burden of each PM2.5- and ozone-related disease. Results: In 2019, 467,000 DALYs (95% UI: 371,000, 570,000) were attributable to PM2.5 and 39,600 (95% UI: 18,300, 61,500) to ozone. The crude DALY rate attributable to PM2.5 decreased by 47.9% (95% UI: 10.3, 65.4) from 1990 to 2019. For ozone, it declined by 37.0% (95% UI: 28.9, 44.5) during 1990-2010, but it increased by 44.8% (95% UI: 35.5, 56.3) during 2010-2019. Age-standardized rates declined more than crude ones. Conclusion: In Italy, the burden of ambient PM2.5 (but not of ozone) significantly decreased, even in concurrence with population ageing. Results suggest a positive impact of air quality regulations, fostering further regulatory efforts.

Changes in private health service utilisation and access to the Italian National Health Service between 2006 and 2019: a cross-sectional comparative study.

OBJECTIVES: Previous research highlighted that in the early 2000s a significant share of the Italian population used and paid out of pocket for private healthcare services even when they could potentially have received the same treatments from the National Health Service (NHS). The decrease in public investments in healthcare and the increase in health needs due to the population ageing may have modified the use of private health services and equity of access to the Italian NHS. This study aims to investigate the change in the prevalence of individuals who have fully paid out of pocket for accessing healthcare services in Italy between 2006 and 2019 and the main reasons behind this choice. DESIGN: Cross-sectional comparative study. PARTICIPANTS AND COMPARISON: Two representative samples of the Italian population were collected in 2006 and 2019. OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence of access to fully paid out-of-pocket private health services; type of service of the last fully paid out-of-pocket access; main reasons for the last fully paid out-of-pocket access. RESULTS: We found an increase in the prevalence of people who declared having fully paid out of pocket at least one access to health services during their lifetime from 79.0% in 2006 to 91.9% in 2019 (adjusted OR 2.66; 95% CI 1.98 to 3.58). 'To avoid waiting times' was the main reason and it was significantly more frequent in 2019 compared with 2006 (adjusted OR 1.75; 95% CI 1.45 to 2.11). CONCLUSIONS: This comparative study, conducted the year before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighted an increase in the prevalence of Italian residents who have fully paid out of pocket for access to health services to overcome long waiting times. Our findings may indicate a reduced access and possible worsening of the equity of access to the public and universalistic Italian NHS between 2006 and 2019.

The Role of Cost-Effectiveness Analysis in Patient-Centered Cancer Care in the Era of Precision Medicine.

Over the last few decades, changes in diagnostic and treatment paradigms have greatly advanced cancer care and improved outcomes [...].

Cost Determinants of Continuum-Care Episodes for Hip Fracture.

Many factors affect the healthcare costs and outcomes in patients with hip fracture (HF). Through the construction of a Continuum-Care Episode (CCE), we investigated the costs of CCEs for HF and their determinants. We used data extracted from administrative databases of 5094 consecutive elderly patients hospitalized in 2017 in Emilia Romagna, Italy, to evaluate the overall costs of the CCE. We calculated the acute and post-acute costs from the date of the hospital admission to the end of the CCE. The determinants of costs by type of surgical intervention (total hip replacement, partial hip replacement, open reduction, and internal fixation) were investigated using generalized linear regression models. Regardless of the type of surgical intervention, hospital bed-based rehabilitation in public or private healthcare facilities either followed by rehabilitation in a community hospital/temporary nursing home beds or not were the strongest determinants of costs, while rehabilitation in intermediate care facilities alone was associated with lower costs. CCE's cost and its variability is mainly related to the rehabilitation setting. Cost-wise, intermediate care resulted to be an appropriate setting for providing post-acute rehabilitation for HF, representing the one associated with lower overall costs. Intermediate care organizational setting should be privileged when planning integrated care HF pathways.

Association between Economic Growth, Mortality, and Healthcare Spending in 31 High-Income Countries.

This study aims to investigate the association between gross domestic product (GDP), mortality rate (MR) and current healthcare expenditure (CHE) in 31 high-income countries. We used panel data from 2000 to 2017 collected from WHO and OECD databases. The association between CHE, GDP and MR was investigated through a random-effects model. To control for reverse causality, we adopted a test of Granger causality. The model shows that the MR has a statistically significant and negative effect on CHE and that an increase in GDP is associated with an increase of CHE (p < 0.001). The Granger causality analysis shows that all the variables exhibit a bidirectional causality. We found a two-way relationship between GDP and CHE. Our analysis highlights the economic multiplier effect of CHE. In the debate on the optimal allocation of resources, this evidence should be taken into due consideration.

What services should be guaranteed in universal health-care systems?

COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the importance of public, universal and equal access health-care, and reminded us that challenges are always incumbent for health-care systems. Because accessible and universal health-care systems will be critical into the future, it will be crucial to earmark adequate resources, fostering the financing of sectors that for many years have been neglected such as primary care and public health, and investments in new models of care and in health-related workforce.

Real and predicted mortality under health spending constraints in Italy: a time trend analysis through artificial neural networks.

BACKGROUND: After 2008 global economic crisis, Italian governments progressively reduced public healthcare financing. Describing the time trend of health outcomes and health expenditure may be helpful for policy makers during the resources' allocation decision making process. The aim of this paper is to analyze the trend of mortality and health spending in Italy and to investigate their correlation in consideration of the funding constraints experienced by the Italian national health system (SSN). METHODS: We conducted a 20-year time-series study. Secondary data has been extracted from a national, institution based and publicly accessible retrospective database periodically released by the Italian Institute of Statistics. Age standardized all-cause mortality rate (MR) and health spending (Directly Provided Services - DPS, Agreed-Upon Services - TAUS, and private expenditure) were reviewed. Time trend analysis (1995-2014) through OLS and Multilayer Feed-forward Neural Networks (MFNN) models to forecast mortality and spending trend was performed. The association between healthcare expenditure and MR was analyzed through a fixed effect regression model. We then repeated MFNN time trend forecasting analyses on mortality by adding the spending item resulted significantly related with MR in the fixed effect analyses. RESULTS: DPS and TAUS decreased since 2011. There was a mismatch in mortality rates between real and predicted values. DPS resulted significantly associated to mortality (p < 0.05). In repeated mortality forecasting analysis, predicted MR was found to be lower when considering the pre-constraints health spending trend. CONCLUSIONS: Between 2011 and 2014, Italian public health spending items showed a reduction when compared to prior years. Spending on services directly provided free of charge appears to be the financial driving force of the Italian public health system. The overall mortality was found to be higher than the predicted trend and this scenario may be partially attributable to the healthcare funding constraints experienced by the SSN.

Health Expenditure and All-Cause Mortality in the 'Galaxy' of Italian Regional Healthcare Systems: A 15-Year Panel Data Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The sustainability of healthcare systems is a topic of major interest. During periods of economic instability, policy makers typically reallocate resources and execute linear cuts in different areas of public spending, including healthcare. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this paper was to examine whether and how per capita public healthcare expenditure (PHE) in the Italian regions was related to the all-cause mortality rate (MR) between 1999 and 2013 and to determine which expenditure item most affected mortality in the short and very short term. METHODS: We conducted a pooled cross-sectional time series study. Secondary data were extracted from 'Health for All', a database released periodically by the Italian National Institute of Statistics. PHE is subdivided into directly provided services (DPS), pharmaceutical care, general practitioner care, specialist medical care, privately delivered hospital care, other privately delivered medical services, and psychiatric support and rehabilitation. We used a fixed-effects regression to assess the effects of PHE items on the MR after controlling for a number of socioeconomic and supply variables. RESULTS: Higher spending on DPS was associated with a lower MR. Other expenditure variables were not significantly associated with the MR. CONCLUSIONS: The results highlight the importance of medical services and goods provided directly by public services (i.e. hospital-based general and specialized wards and offices, emergency departments, etc.). DPS represents the driving force of the system and should be considered a determinant of the health of the Italian population. Our results suggest that the context and financing methods of a healthcare system should be carefully analysed before linear cuts are made or resources are reallocated.