Impacts of the Egyptian national screening and treatment programme for viral hepatitis C: A cost-effectiveness model.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Egypt used to have one of the highest prevalences of HCV infection worldwide. The Egyptian Ministry of Health launched a national campaign for the detection and management of HCV to reduce its burden. This study aims to carry out a cost-effectiveness analysis to evaluate the costs and benefits of the Egyptian national screening and treatment programme. METHODS: A disease burden and economic impact model was populated with the Egyptian national screening and treatment programme data to assess direct medical costs, health effects measured in disability-adjusted life years and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. The scenario was compared to a historical base case, which assumed that no programme had been conducted. RESULTS: Total number of viremic cases is expected to decrease in 2030 by 86% under the national screening and treatment programme, versus by 41% under the historical base case. Annual discounted direct medical costs are expected to decrease from $178 million in 2018 to $81 million by 2030 under the historical base case, while annual direct medical costs are estimated to have peaked in 2019 at $312 million before declining to $55 million by 2030 under the national screening and treatment programme. Under the programme, annual disability-adjusted life years are expected to decline to 127 647 by 2030, leading to 883 333 cumulative disability-adjusted life years averted over 2018-2030. CONCLUSIONS: The national screening and treatment programme is highly cost-effective by the year 2021, cost-saving by 2029 and expected to save about $35 million in direct costs and $4705 million in indirect costs by 2030.

Hepatitis C infection in Egypt: prevalence, impact and management strategies.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a major public health burden in Egypt, where it bears the highest prevalence rate in the world. Estimates for prevalence are based upon data reported from the 2008 and 2015 Egypt Demographic Health Surveys. In this review, we demonstrate the prevalence results of both surveys and analyze the difference in the results. The overall HCV prevalence is estimated to be declining. However, the clinical impact of chronic HCV infection is expected to grow considerably. A mathematical model shows that by increasing the rate of treatment, the expected number of patients will decline significantly in 2030. The current and expected future burden of chronic HCV infection to the Egyptian economy, including direct and indirect costs due to disability and loss of lives, has been estimated and discussed in this review. The economic burden will continue to grow, but a model shows that the introduction of highly effective therapies will result in a significant reduction in the cumulative total economic burden of HCV by 2030. In recognition of the HCV tremendous health and economic burden, the Egyptian government established the National Committee for Control of Viral Hepatitis to implement an integrated nationwide strategy to provide patient care and ensure global treatment access. This review illustrates the epidemiological and disease burden aspects of HCV in Egypt in addition to introducing the national plan and program for managing HCV, which has been successful so far in treating a large number of patients, with the aim of achieving disease control and eventual elimination in Egypt.

Utility and cost-effectiveness of screening for hepatocellular carcinoma in a resource-limited setting.

The utility, efficacy and cost-effectiveness of establishing a prospective screening program for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in a low-cost setting as Egypt has not been previously studied. Eligible patients in this observational study were screened by ultrasound and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) every 6 months. A focal lesion on ultrasound or AFP >200 ng/ml or significant increase in 6 months indicated a recall. Characteristics of cases detected on screening were compared to patients diagnosed outside the screening program. Of 1,920 eligible patients, 1,286 patients participated and 102 patients (7.9 %) developed HCC, with an annual incidence of 5.3 %. Ninety-one (89.2 %) were BCLC stage 0 or A and 11 (10.8 %) stage D. Ultrasound detected a hepatic focal lesion in 99 patients, of which 74 were confirmed to be HCC, and AFP added another 28 HCC cases. The annual cost of detecting a treatable HCC case by ultrasound was 3,980 EGP ( 400) and by both ultrasound and AFP 4,645 EGP ( 500). Adding the cost of treatment, the cost/quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained was 7,907 EGP ( 800)/QALY for screening with ultrasound only, and 8,430 EGP ( 850)/QALY for using both ultrasound and AFP, which in both cases is <50 % of the per capita GDP and <20 % of the accepted cost/QALY for Egypt. Screening for HCC is feasible and is highly cost-effective in a resource-limited setting. Adding AFP to ultrasound increased detection with a trivial addition to cost/QALY.