Artificial Intelligence for chemical risk assessment.

As the basis for managing the risks of chemical exposure, the Chemical Risk Assessment (CRA) process can impact a substantial part of the economy, the health of hundreds of millions of people, and the condition of the environment. However, the number of properly assessed chemicals falls short of societal needs due to a lack of experts for evaluation, interference of third party interests, and the sheer volume of potentially relevant information on the chemicals from disparate sources. In order to explore ways in which computational methods may help overcome this discrepancy between the number of chemical risk assessments required on the one hand and the number and adequateness of assessments actually being conducted on the other, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre organised a workshop on Artificial Intelligence for Chemical Risk Assessment (AI4CRA). The workshop identified a number of areas where Artificial Intelligence could potentially increase the number and quality of regulatory risk management decisions based on CRA, involving process simulation, supporting evaluation, identifying problems, facilitating collaboration, finding experts, evidence gathering, systematic review, knowledge discovery, and building cognitive models. Although these are interconnected, they are organised and discussed under two main themes: scientific-technical process and social aspects and the decision making process.

Potential of ToxCast Data in the Safety Assessment of Food Chemicals.

Tox21 and ToxCast are high-throughput in vitro screening programs coordinated by the U.S. National Toxicology Program and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, respectively, with the goal of forecasting biological effects in vivo based on bioactivity profiling. The present study investigated whether mechanistic insights in the biological targets of food-relevant chemicals can be obtained from ToxCast results when the chemicals are grouped according to structural similarity. Starting from the 556 direct additives that have been identified in the ToxCast database by Karmaus et al. [Karmaus, A. L., Trautman, T. D., Krishan, M., Filer, D. L., and Fix, L. A. (2017). Curation of food-relevant chemicals in ToxCast. Food Chem. Toxicol. 103, 174-182.], the results showed that, despite the limited number of assays in which the chemical groups have been tested, sufficient results are available within so-called "DNA binding" and "nuclear receptor" target families to profile the biological activities of the defined chemical groups for these targets. The most obvious activity identified was the estrogen receptor-mediated actions of the chemical group containing parabens and structurally related gallates, as well the chemical group containing genistein and daidzein (the latter 2 being particularly active toward estrogen receptor ß as a potential health benefit). These group effects, as well as the biological activities of other chemical groups, were evaluated in a series of case studies. Overall, the results of the present study suggest that high-throughput screening data could add to the evidence considered for regulatory risk assessment of food chemicals and to the evaluation of desirable effects of nutrients and phytonutrients. The data will be particularly useful for providing mechanistic information and to fill data gaps with read-across.

Quantifying experts' uncertainty about the future cost of exotic diseases.

Since the foot-and-mouth disease outbreak of 2001 in the United Kingdom, there has been debate about the sharing, between government and industry, both the costs of livestock disease outbreaks and responsibility for the decisions that give rise to them. As part of a consultation into the formation of a new body to manage livestock diseases, government veterinarians and economists produced estimates of the average annual costs for a number of exotic infectious diseases. In this article, we demonstrate how the government experts were helped to quantify their uncertainties about the cost estimates using formal expert elicitation techniques. This has enabled the decisionmakers to have a greater appreciation of government experts' uncertainty in this policy area.