Risk compensation after HIV-1 vaccination may accelerate viral adaptation and reduce cost-effectiveness: a modeling study.

Pathogen populations can evolve in response to selective pressure from vaccine-induced immune responses. For HIV, models predict that viral adaptation, either via strain replacement or selection on de novo mutation, may rapidly reduce the effectiveness of an HIV vaccine. We hypothesized that behavioral risk compensation after vaccination may accelerate the transmission of vaccine resistant strains, increasing the rate of viral adaptation and leading to a more rapid decline in vaccine effectiveness. To test our hypothesis, we modeled: (a) the impact of risk compensation on rates of HIV adaptation via strain replacement in response to a partially effective vaccine; and (b) the combined impact of risk compensation and viral adaptation on vaccine-mediated epidemic control. We used an agent-based epidemic model that was calibrated to HIV-1 trends in South Africa, and includes demographics, sexual network structure and behavior, and within-host disease dynamics. Our model predicts that risk compensation can increase the rate of HIV viral adaptation in response to a vaccine. In combination, risk compensation and viral adaptation can, under certain scenarios, reverse initial declines in prevalence due to vaccination, and result in HIV prevalence at 15 years equal to or greater than prevalence without a vaccine.

Prevalence, predictors, and management of advanced HIV disease among individuals initiating ART in Senegal, West Africa.

BACKGROUND: The WHO guidelines for the management of advanced HIV disease recommend a package of care consisting of rapid initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART), enhanced screening and diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB) and cryptococcal meningitis, co-trimoxazole prophylaxis, isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT), fluconazole pre-emptive therapy, and adherence support. The goals of this study were to determine the prevalence of advanced HIV disease among individuals initiating ART in Senegal, to identify predictors of advanced disease, and to evaluate adherence to the WHO guidelines. METHODS: This study was conducted among HIV-positive individuals initiating ART in Dakar and Ziguinchor, Senegal. Clinical evaluations, laboratory analyses, questionnaires and chart review were conducted. Logistic regression was used to identify predictors of advanced disease. RESULTS: A total of 198 subjects were enrolled; 70% were female. The majority of subjects (71%) had advanced HIV disease, defined by the WHO as a CD4 count < 200 cells/mm3 or clinical stage 3 or 4. The median CD4 count was 185 cells/mm3. The strongest predictors of advanced disease were age ≥ 35 (OR 5.80, 95%CI 2.35-14.30) and having sought care from a traditional healer (OR 3.86, 95%CI 1.17-12.78). Approximately one third of subjects initiated ART within 7 days of diagnosis. Co-trimoxazole prophylaxis was provided to 65% of subjects with CD4 counts ≤350 cells/mm3 or stage 3 or 4 disease. TB symptom screening was available for 166 subjects; 54% reported TB symptoms. Among those with TB symptoms, 39% underwent diagnostic evaluation. Among those eligible for IPT, one subject received isoniazid. No subjects underwent CrAg screening or received fluconazole to prevent cryptococcal meningitis. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to report an association between seeking care from a traditional healer and presentation with WHO defined advanced disease in sub-Saharan Africa. Given the widespread use of traditional healers in sub-Saharan Africa, future studies to further explore this finding are indicated. Although the majority of individuals in this study presented with advanced disease and warranted management according to WHO guidelines, there were numerous missed opportunities to prevent HIV-associated morbidity and mortality. Programmatic evaluation is needed to identify barriers to implementation of the WHO guidelines and enhanced funding for operational research is indicated.

HIV shedding in the oral cavity: an assessment of HIV type, immunovirologic, demographic and oral factors.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the prevalence and burden of HIV type 2 (HIV-2) and HIV-1 RNA in the oral cavity of antiretroviral therapy-naive HIV-infected Senegalese individuals and to identify correlates of oral HIV viral loads. DESIGN: A cross-sectional study of 163 HIV-1 and 27 HIV-2-infected antiretroviral therapy-naive Senegalese adults. METHODS: Participants received clinical and oral exams and provided blood and oral wash samples for viral load and plasma CD4 count ascertainment. Logistic and interval regression models were used to identify univariate and multivariable associations between presence and level of oral HIV RNA and various immunovirologic, local and demographic factors. RESULTS: Presence of detectable oral HIV RNA was less common in HIV-2-infected compared with HIV-1-infected study participants (33% vs 67%, OR 0.25, 95% CI 0.11 to 0.59). HIV type was no longer associated with oral shedding of HIV when plasma viral load was considered. Detection of oral HIV RNA was associated with increased plasma viral load in both HIV-1-infected and HIV-2-infected individuals (HIV-1, OR 1.89, 95% CI 1.24 to 2.61; HIV-2, OR 1.93, 95% CI 1.1 to 3.39). Oral HIV-1 detection was also associated with periodontal disease (OR 3.02, 95% CI 1.16 to 7.87). CONCLUSIONS: Oral shedding of HIV-2 RNA is less common than HIV-1 RNA, a likely consequence of lower overall viral burden. Both systemic and local factors may contribute to shedding of HIV in the oral cavity.

Lower levels of HIV-2 than HIV-1 in the female genital tract: correlates and longitudinal assessment of viral shedding.

BACKGROUND: The differing magnitude of the HIV-1 and HIV-2 epidemics is likely a consequence of differing transmission rates between the two viruses. Similar to other sexually transmitted pathogens, risk of HIV-1 and HIV-2 transmission is likely associated with the presence and amount of HIV in the genital tract. Thus, understanding patterns of, and risk factors for HIV genital tract shedding is critical to effective control of HIV transmission. METHODS: We evaluated HIV DNA and RNA detection in cervicovaginal specimens among 168 HIV-1 and 50 HIV-2-infected women in Senegal, West Africa. In a subset of 31 women (20 with HIV-1, 11 with HIV-2), we conducted a prospective study in which cervicovaginal specimens were taken at 3-day intervals over a 6-week period. RESULTS: We found significantly lower rates and levels of HIV-2 RNA (58% shedding; 13% with >1000 copies/ml) in the female genital tract than HIV-1 RNA (78% shedding; 40% with >1000 copies/ml) (P = 0.005 and 0.005, respectively), and shedding correlated with plasma viral load irrespective of virus type (odds ratio = 1.9, 95% confidence interval = 1.3-2.8 for each log10 increase in HIV viral RNA). Plasma viral load, not HIV type, was the strongest predictor of genital viral load. Over 80% of closely monitored women, regardless of HIV type, had at least intermittent HIV RNA detection during every 3-day sampling over a 6-week time period. CONCLUSION: These data help in explaining the different transmission rates between HIV-1 and HIV-2 and may provide new insights regarding prevention.