Immediate Operative Trauma Assessment Score: A Simple and Reliable Predictor of Mortality in Trauma Patients Undergoing Urgent/Emergent Surgery.

Objective: Many current trauma mortality prediction tools are either too intricate or rely on data not readily available during a trauma patient's initial evaluation. Moreover, none are tailored to those necessitating urgent or emergent surgery. Our objective was to design a practical, user-friendly scoring tool using immediately available variables, and then compare its efficacy to the widely-known Revised Trauma Score (RTS). Methods: The adult 2017-2021 Trauma Quality Improvement Program (TQIP) database was queried to identify patients ≥18 years old undergoing any urgent/emergent operation (direct from Emergency Department to operating room). Patients were divided into derivation and validation groups. A three-step methodology was used. First, multiple logistic regression models were created to determine risk of death using only variables available upon arrival. Second, the weighted average and relative impact of each independent predictor was used to derive an easily calculated Immediate Operative Trauma Assessment Score (IOTAS). We then validated IOTAS using AUROC and compared it to RTS. Results: From 249 208 patients in the derivation-set, 14 635 (5.9%) died. Age ≥65, Glasgow Coma Scale score <9, hypotension (SBP <90 mmHg), and tachycardia (>120/min) on arrival were identified as independent predictors for mortality. Using these, the IOTAS was structured, offering scores between 0-8. The AUROC for this was .88. A clear escalation in mortality was observed across scores: from 4.4% at score 1 to 60.5% at score 8. For the validation set (250 182 patients; mortality rate 5.8%), the AUROC remained consistent at .87, surpassing RTS's AUROC of .83. Conclusion: IOTAS is a novel, accurate, and now validated tool that is intuitive and efficient in predicting mortality for trauma patients requiring urgent or emergent surgeries. It outperforms RTS, and thereby may help guide clinicians when determining the best course of action in patient management as well as counseling patients and their families.

Comparison of National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Surgical Risk Calculator and Trauma and Injury Severity Score Risk Assessment Tools in Predicting Outcomes in High-Risk Operative Trauma Patients.

BACKGROUND: The Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) uses anatomic/physiologic variables to predict outcomes. The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Surgical Risk Calculator (NSQIP-SRC) includes functional status and comorbidities. It is unclear which of these tools is superior for high-risk trauma patients (American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status (ASA-PS) class IV or V). This study compares risk prediction of TRISS and NSQIP-SRC for mortality, length of stay (LOS), and complications for high-risk operative trauma patients. METHODS: This is a prospective study of high-risk (ASA-PS IV or V) trauma patients (≥18 years-old) undergoing surgery at 4 trauma centers. We compared TRISS vs NSQIP-SRC vs NSQIP-SRC + TRISS for ability to predict mortality, LOS, and complications using linear, logistic, and negative binomial regression. RESULTS: Of 284 patients, 48 (16.9%) died. The median LOS was 16 days and number of complications was 1. TRISS + NSQIP-SRC best predicted mortality (AUROC: .877 vs .723 vs .843, P = .0018) and number of complications (pseudo-R2/median error (ME) 5.26%/1.15 vs 3.39%/1.33 vs 2.07%/1.41, P < .001) compared to NSQIP-SRC or TRISS, but there was no difference between TRISS + NSQIP-SRC and NSQIP-SRC with LOS prediction (P = .43). DISCUSSION: For high-risk operative trauma patients, TRISS + NSQIP-SRC performed better at predicting mortality and number of complications compared to NSQIP-SRC or TRISS alone but similar to NSQIP-SRC alone for LOS. Thus, future risk prediction and comparisons across trauma centers for high-risk operative trauma patients should include a combination of anatomic/physiologic data, comorbidities, and functional status.

Race, Age, and Lack of Insurance Increase Risk of Suicide Attempt in Trauma Patients.

OBJECTIVE: The overall rate of suicide between 1999 and 2017 increased by 33% in the United States. We sought to examine suicide attempts in the trauma patient population, hypothesizing that in adult trauma patients race and lack of insurance status would be predictors of suicide attempt. METHOD: The Trauma Quality Improvement Program (2010-2016) was queried for trauma patients ≥18 years old. The primary outcome was suicide attempt. A multivariable logistic regression model was performed including covariates that influence risk of suicide attempt. RESULTS: From 1,403,466 adult trauma admissions, 16,263 (1.2%) patients attempted suicide. Death after suicide attempt occurred in 30.2% of patients. Independent predictors of suicide attempt were age < 40 years old (odds ratio [OR] = 1.46, 95% confidence interval [CI] [1.41, 1.51], p < .001) and no insurance (OR = 1.92, 95% CI [1.85, 2.00], p < .001). Black (vs. White) race was associated with decreased risk of suicide attempt (OR = 0.63, 95% CI [0.60, 0.67], p < .001). Hispanic (versus non-Hispanic) patients demonstrated lower associated risk of suicide attempt by gun (OR = 0.50, 95% CI [0.45, 0.54], p < .001), while Asian (vs. White) patients exhibited higher risk of suicide attempt overall (OR = 1.25, 95% CI [1.12, 1.39], p < .001) and more specifically by knife (OR = 2.55, 95% CI [2.16, 3.00], p < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Age younger than 40 years and lack of insurance were associated with higher risk of suicide attempt in adult trauma patients. Asian race was associated with the highest risk of suicide, with >2.5 times increased risk of attempt by knife. Awareness of these demographic-specific risk factors for suicide attempt, and in particular violent mechanisms of suicide attempt, is critical to implementation of effective suicide prevention efforts.HighlightsAge younger than 40 and no insurance were associated with risk of suicide attempt.Black (vs. White) race was associated with decreased risk of suicide attempt.Asian race was associated with an increased risk of suicide attempt with a knife.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) stay-at-home order's unequal effects on trauma volume by insurance status in Southern California.

BACKGROUND: The rapid spread of coronavirus disease 2019 in the United States led to a variety of mandates intended to decrease population movement and "flatten the curve." However, there is evidence some are not able to stay-at-home due to certain disadvantages, thus remaining exposed to both coronavirus disease 2019 and trauma. We therefore sought to identify any unequal effects of the California stay-at-home orders between races and insurance statuses in a multicenter study utilizing trauma volume data. METHODS: A posthoc multicenter retrospective analysis of trauma patients presenting to 11 centers in Southern California between the dates of January 1, 2020, and June 30, 2020, and January 1, 2019, and June 30, 2019, was performed. The number of trauma patients of each race/insurance status was tabulated per day. We then calculated the changes in trauma volume related to stay-at-home orders for each race/insurance status and compared the magnitude of these changes using statistical resampling. RESULTS: Compared to baseline, there was a 40.1% drop in total trauma volume, which occurred 20 days after stay-at-home orders. During stay-at-home orders, the average daily trauma volume of patients with Medicaid increased by 13.7 ± 5.3%, whereas the volume of those with Medicare, private insurance, and no insurance decreased. The average daily trauma volume decreased for White, Black, Asian, and Latino patients with the volume of Black and Latino patients dropping to a similar degree compared to White patients. CONCLUSION: This retrospective multicenter study demonstrated that patients with Medicaid had a paradoxical increase in trauma volume during stay-at-home orders, suggesting that the most impoverished groups remain disproportionately exposed to trauma during a pandemic, further exacerbating existing health disparities.

A national analysis of pediatric firearm violence and the effects of race and insurance status on risk of mortality.

OBJECTIVES: To perform a national analysis of pediatric firearm violence (PFV), hypothesizing that black and uninsured patients would have higher risk of mortality. METHODS: The Trauma Quality Improvement Program (2014-2016) was queried for PFV patients ≤16 years-old. Multivariable logistic regression models on all patients and a subset excluding severe brain injuries were performed. RESULTS: The PFV mortality rate was 11.2%. 66.5% of PFV patients were black (p < 0.001). Deceased patients were more likely to be uninsured (14.5% vs. 5.3%, p < 0.001). Black race was an associated risk factor for mortality in patients without severe brain injury (OR 5.26, CI 1.00-27.47, p = 0.049) but not for the overall population (OR 1.32, CI 0.68-2.56, p = 0.39). CONCLUSION: Nearly two-thirds of PFV patients were black. Contrary to previous studies, black and uninsured pediatric patients did not have an increased risk of mortality overall. However, in a subset of patients without severe brain injury, black race was associated with increased mortality risk. SUMMARY: Between 2014 and 2016 the mortality rate for pediatric firearm violence (PFV) in children 16 years and younger was 11.2%. Although two-thirds of PFV patients were black, black race and lack of insurance were not risk factors of mortality for the overall population. Once patients with severe brain injury were excluded, black race and became associated with an increased risk of mortality.

Racial and Sex Disparities in Trauma Outcomes Based on Geographical Region.

OBJECTIVES: Disparities in outcomes among trauma patients have been shown to be associated with race and sex. The purpose of this study was to analyze racial and sex mortality disparities in different regions of the United States, hypothesizing that the risk of mortality among black and Asian trauma patients, compared to white trauma patients, will be similar within all regions in the United States. METHODS: The Trauma Quality Improvement Program (2010-2016) was queried for adult trauma patients, separating by U.S. Census regions. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed for each region, controlling for known predictors of morbidity and mortality in trauma. RESULTS: Most trauma patients were treated in the South (n = 522 388, 40.7%). After risk adjustment, black trauma patients had a higher associated risk of death in all regions, except the Northeast, compared to white trauma patients. The highest associated risk of death for blacks (vs. whites) was in the Midwest (odds ratio [OR] 1.30, P < .001). Asian trauma patients only had a higher associated risk of death in the West (OR 1.39, P < .001). Male trauma patients, compared to women, had an increased associated risk of mortality in all four regions. DISCUSSION: This study found major differences in outcomes among different races within different regions of the United States. There was also both an increased rate and associated risk of mortality for male patients in all regions. Future prospective studies are needed to identify what regional differences in trauma systems including population density, transport times, hospital access, and other trauma resources explain these findings.

New York State and the Nation: Trends in Firearm Purchases and Firearm Violence During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The impacts of social stressors on violence during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic are unknown. We hypothesized that firearm purchases and violence would increase surrounding the pandemic. This study determined the impact of COVID-19 and shelter-in-place (SIP) orders on firearm purchases and incidents in the United States (US) and New York State (NYS). METHODS: Scatterplots reflected trends in firearm purchases, incidents, and deaths over a 16-month period (January 2019 to April 2020). Bivariate comparisons of SIP and non-SIP jurisdictions before and after SIP (February 2020 vs. April 2020) and April 2020 vs. April 2019 were performed with the Mann-Whitney U test. RESULTS: The incidence of COVID-19 in the US increased between February and April 2020 from 24 to 1 067 660 and in NYS from 0 to 304 372. When comparing February to March to April in the US, firearm purchases increased 33.6% then decreased 22.0%, whereas firearm incidents increased 12.2% then again increased by 3.6% and firearm deaths increased 23.8% then decreased in April by 3.8%. In NYS, comparing February to March to April 2020, firearm purchases increased 87.6% then decreased 54.8%, firearm incidents increased 110.1% then decreased 30.8%, and firearm deaths increased 57.1% then again increased by 6.1%. In both SIP and non-SIP jurisdictions, April 2020 firearm purchases, incidents, deaths, and injuries were similar to April 2019 and February 2020 (all P = NS). DISCUSSION: Coronavirus disease 2019-related stressors may have triggered an increase in firearm purchases nationally and within NYS in March 2020. Firearm incidents also increased in NYS. SIP orders had no effect on firearm purchases and firearm violence.

Obese trauma patients have increased need for dialysis.

PURPOSE: Obesity is a risk factor for the development of acute kidney injury but its effect on the need for dialysis in trauma has not been elucidated. Additionally, the contribution that obesity has towards risk of mortality in trauma is unclear. We hypothesized that patients with a higher body mass index (BMI) will have a higher risk for need of dialysis and mortality after trauma. METHODS: This is a retrospective analysis using the National Trauma Data Bank. All patients ≥ 8 years old were grouped based on BMI: normal (18.5-24.99 kg/m2), obese (30-34.99 kg/m2), severely obese (35-39.99 kg/m2) and morbidly obese (≥ 40 kg/m2). The primary outcome was hemodialysis initiation. The secondary outcome was mortality during the index hospitalization. RESULTS: From 988,988 trauma patients, 571,507 (57.8%) had a normal BMI, 233,340 (23.6%) were obese, 94,708 (9.6%) were severely obese, and 89,433 (9.0%) were morbidly obese. The overall rate of hemodialysis was 0.3%. After adjusting for covariates, we found that obese (OR 1.36, CI 1.22-1.52, p < 0.001), severely obese (OR 1.89, CI 1.66-2.15, p < 0.001) and morbidly obese (OR 2.04, CI 1.82-2.29, p < 0.001) patients had a stepwise increased need for hemodialysis after trauma. Obese patients had decreased (OR 0.92, CI 0.88-0.95, p < 0.001), severely obese had similar (OR 1.02, CI 0.97-1.08, p = 0.50) and morbidly obese patients had increased (OR 1.06, CI 1.01-1.12, p = 0.011) risk of mortality after trauma. CONCLUSIONS: Obesity was associated with an increased risk for dialysis after trauma. Mortality risk was reduced in obese, similar in severely obese, and increased in morbidly obese trauma patients suggesting an inflection threshold BMI for risk of mortality in trauma.

Racial Disparities in Limb Amputations After Traumatic Vascular Injury.

OBJECTIVES: The influence of race or ethnicity on limb loss after traumatic vascular injury is unclear. We sought to determine whether there were racial differences in rates of amputation between American Indians, blacks, Asians, and Hispanics compared to white patients following arterial axillosubclavian vessel injury (ASVI), femoral artery injury (FAI), or popliteal artery injury (PAI). As black race has been identified as an independent prognostic factor for postsurgical complication in trauma-associated lower extremity amputation, we further hypothesized that black race would be associated with a higher risk for limb loss after arterial ASVI, FAI, and PAI injury in a large national database. METHODS: The National Trauma Data Bank was queried for patients ≥16-years-old with arterial ASVI, FAI, or PAI to determine the risk of arm, above knee amputation (AKA), and below knee amputation (BKA), respectively. Covariates were included in separate multivariable logistic regression models for analysis. The reference group included white trauma patients. RESULTS: From 5,683,057 patients, 21,843 were identified with arterial ASVI, FAI, or PAI (<0.4%). For arterial ASVI, American Indian race was associated with higher risk for upper-extremity amputation as compared to white race (OR = 5.10, CI = 1.62-16.06, p < 0.05). For FAI, black race was associated with (OR = 0.66, CI = 0.49-0.89, p < 0.05) a lower risk of AKA, compared to white race. For PAI, race was not associated with risk for BKA. CONCLUSION: Black race is associated with a lower risk of AKA after FAI, compared to whites. Race was not associated with a risk for limb loss after PAI. Future prospective studies examining socioeconomic factors and access to healthcare within this patient population is warranted to identify barriers and areas of improvement.

International surgical residency electives: a collaborative effort from trainees to surgeons working in low- and middle-income countries.

In today's ever-globalizing climate, the academic sector bears a certain responsibility to incorporate global health opportunities into residency training programs. The worldwide unmet surgical need has been growing; it has been estimated by the World Health Organization that by 2030, surgical diseases will contribute significantly to the burden of global health. International electives (IE) offered during training may partially address this growing need. In addition, it can help trainees develop a heightened awareness of the social determinants of health in resource-limited areas, as well as gain insight into different cultures, health beliefs, and pathologic conditions. General surgery residency programs that offer IE may also stand to benefit by attracting a broader applicant pool, as well as by having the ability to train residents to rely less upon expensive tests and equipment, while further developing residents' physical examination and communications skills. The challenges that IE pose for trainees include the required adaptation to an environment devoid of an advanced and modern medical system, and a difficulty in learning a new language, culture, and local customs. However, IE may also be hazardous for home institutions as they may drain local resources and take limited educational experiences away from local providers. Despite the active promotion of international volunteerism by the American Board of Surgery, few surgery residency programs offer IE as part of the curriculum, with cost and supervision being the major obstacles to overcome. Consequently, it may be difficult to generate American surgical leaders in international health. In this article, we outline the steps needed to bring IE to an institution and how general surgery residency programs can help bridge the gap between surgeons in high-income countries and the growing surgical needs of the international community.