Leveraging genetic correlations and multiple populations to improve genetic risk prediction for non-European populations.

The disparity in genetic risk prediction accuracy between European and non-European individuals highlights a critical challenge in health inequality. To bridge this gap, we introduce JointPRS, a novel method that models multiple populations jointly to improve genetic risk predictions for non-European individuals. JointPRS has three key features. First, it encompasses all diverse populations to improve prediction accuracy, rather than relying solely on the target population with a singular auxiliary European group. Second, it autonomously estimates and leverages chromosome-wise cross-population genetic correlations to infer the effect sizes of genetic variants. Lastly, it provides an auto version that has comparable performance to the tuning version to accommodate the situation with no validation dataset. Through extensive simulations and real data applications to 22 quantitative traits and four binary traits in East Asian populations, nine quantitative traits and one binary trait in African populations, and four quantitative traits in South Asian populations, we demonstrate that JointPRS outperforms state-of-art methods, improving the prediction accuracy for both quantitative and binary traits in non-European populations.

Leveraging genetic correlations and multiple populations to improve genetic risk prediction for non-European populations.

The disparity in genetic risk prediction accuracy between European and non-European individuals highlights a critical challenge in health inequality. To bridge this gap, we introduce JointPRS, a novel method that models multiple populations jointly to improve genetic risk predictions for non-European individuals. JointPRS has three key features. First, it encompasses all diverse populations to improve prediction accuracy, rather than relying solely on the target population with a singular auxiliary European group. Second, it autonomously estimates and leverages chromosome-wise cross-population genetic correlations to infer the effect sizes of genetic variants. Lastly, it provides an auto version that has comparable performance to the tuning version to accommodate the situation with no validation dataset. Through extensive simulations and real data applications to 22 quantitative traits and four binary traits in East Asian populations, nine quantitative traits and one binary trait in African populations, and four quantitative traits in South Asian populations, we demonstrate that JointPRS outperforms state-of-art methods, improving the prediction accuracy for both quantitative and binary traits in non-European populations.

Big data modeling to predict platelet usage and minimize wastage in a tertiary care system.

Maintaining a robust blood product supply is an essential requirement to guarantee optimal patient care in modern health care systems. However, daily blood product use is difficult to anticipate. Platelet products are the most variable in daily usage, have short shelf lives, and are also the most expensive to produce, test, and store. Due to the combination of absolute need, uncertain daily demand, and short shelf life, platelet products are frequently wasted due to expiration. Our aim is to build and validate a statistical model to forecast future platelet demand and thereby reduce wastage. We have investigated platelet usage patterns at our institution, and specifically interrogated the relationship between platelet usage and aggregated hospital-wide patient data over a recent consecutive 29-mo period. Using a convex statistical formulation, we have found that platelet usage is highly dependent on weekday/weekend pattern, number of patients with various abnormal complete blood count measurements, and location-specific hospital census data. We incorporated these relationships in a mathematical model to guide collection and ordering strategy. This model minimizes waste due to expiration while avoiding shortages; the number of remaining platelet units at the end of any day stays above 10 in our model during the same period. Compared with historical expiration rates during the same period, our model reduces the expiration rate from 10.5 to 3.2%. Extrapolating our results to the ∼2 million units of platelets transfused annually within the United States, if implemented successfully, our model can potentially save ∼80 million dollars in health care costs.