Lifetime Health and Economic Outcomes of Biparametric Magnetic Resonance Imaging as First-Line Screening for Prostate Cancer : A Decision Model Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Contemporary prostate cancer (PCa) screening uses first-line prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing, possibly followed by multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) for men with elevated PSA levels. First-line biparametric MRI (bpMRI) screening has been proposed as an alternative. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the comparative effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of first-line bpMRI versus PSA-based screening. DESIGN: Decision analysis using a microsimulation model. DATA SOURCES: Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database; randomized trials. TARGET POPULATION: U.S. men aged 55 years with no prior screening or PCa diagnosis. TIME HORIZON: Lifetime. PERSPECTIVE: U.S. health care system. INTERVENTION: Biennial screening to age 69 years using first-line PSA testing (test-positive threshold, 4 µg/L) with or without second-line mpMRI or first-line bpMRI (test-positive threshold, PI-RADS [Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System] 3 to 5 or 4 to 5), followed by biopsy guided by MRI or MRI plus transrectal ultrasonography. OUTCOME MEASURES: Screening tests, biopsies, diagnoses, overdiagnoses, treatments, PCa deaths, quality-adjusted and unadjusted life-years saved, and costs. RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS: For 1000 men, first-line bpMRI versus first-line PSA testing prevented 2 to 3 PCa deaths and added 10 to 30 life-years (4 to 11 days per person) but increased the number of biopsies by 1506 to 4174 and the number of overdiagnoses by 38 to 124 depending on the biopsy imaging scheme. At conventional cost-effectiveness thresholds, first-line PSA testing with mpMRI followed by either biopsy approach for PI-RADS 4 to 5 produced the greatest net monetary benefits. RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: First-line PSA testing remained more cost-effective even if bpMRI was free, all men with low-risk PCa underwent surveillance, or screening was quadrennial. LIMITATION: Performance of first-line bpMRI was based on second-line mpMRI data. CONCLUSION: Decision analysis suggests that comparative effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of PCa screening are driven by false-positive results and overdiagnoses, favoring first-line PSA testing with mpMRI over first-line bpMRI. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Cancer Institute.

Assessment of TROP2, CEACAM5 and DLL3 in metastatic prostate cancer: Expression landscape and molecular correlates.

Therapeutic approaches targeting proteins on the surface of cancer cells have emerged as an important strategy for precision oncology. To capitalize on the potential impact of drugs targeting surface proteins, detailed knowledge about the expression patterns of the target proteins in tumor tissues is required. In castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC), agents targeting prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA) have demonstrated clinical activity. However, PSMA expression is lost in a significant number of CRPC tumors. The identification of additional cell surface targets is necessary to develop new therapeutic approaches. Here, we performed a comprehensive analysis of the expression heterogeneity and co-expression patterns of trophoblast cell-surface antigen 2 (TROP2), delta-like ligand 3 (DLL3), and carcinoembryonic antigen-related cell adhesion molecule 5 (CEACAM5) in CRPC samples from a rapid autopsy cohort. We show that DLL3 and CEACAM5 exhibit the highest expression in neuroendocrine prostate cancer (NEPC), while TROP2 is expressed across different CRPC molecular subtypes, except for NEPC. We further demonstrated that AR alterations were associated with higher expression of PSMA and TROP2. Conversely, PSMA and TROP2 expression was lower in RB1-altered tumors. In addition to genomic alterations, we show a tight correlation between epigenetic states, particularly histone H3 lysine 27 methylation (H3K27me3) at the transcriptional start site and gene body of TACSTD2 (encoding TROP2), DLL3, and CEACAM5, and their respective protein expression in CRPC patient-derived xenografts. Collectively, these findings provide insights into patterns and determinants of expression of TROP2, DLL3, and CEACAM5 with implications for the clinical development of cell surface targeting agents in CRPC.

Racial disparities in prostate cancer mortality: a model-based decomposition of contributing factors.

To investigate the relative contributions of natural history and clinical interventions to racial disparities in prostate cancer mortality in the United States, we extended a model that was previously calibrated to Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) incidence rates for the general population and for Black men. The extended model integrated SEER data on curative treatment frequencies and cancer-specific survival. Starting with the model for all men, we replaced up to 9 components with corresponding components for Black men, projecting age-standardized mortality rates for ages 40-84 years at each step. Based on projections in 2019, the increased frequency of developing disease, more aggressive tumor features, and worse cancer-specific survival in Black men diagnosed at local-regional and distant stages explained 38%, 34%, 22%, and 8% of the modeled disparity in mortality. Our results point to intensified screening and improved care in Black men as priority areas to achieve greater equity.

ASSESSMENT OF CELL SURFACE TARGETS IN METASTATIC PROSTATE CANCER: EXPRESSION LANDSCAPE AND MOLECULAR CORRELATES.

Therapeutic approaches targeting proteins on the surface of cancer cells have emerged as an important strategy for precision oncology. To fully capitalize on the potential impact of drugs targeting surface proteins, detailed knowledge about the expression patterns of the target proteins in tumor tissues is required. In castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC), agents targeting prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA) have demonstrated clinical activity. However, PSMA expression is lost in a significant number of CRPC tumors, and the identification of additional cell surface targets is necessary in order to develop new therapeutic approaches. Here, we performed a comprehensive analysis of the expression and co-expression patterns of trophoblast cell-surface antigen 2 (TROP2), delta-like ligand 3 (DLL3), and carcinoembryonic antigen-related cell adhesion molecule 5 (CEACAM5) in CRPC samples from a rapid autopsy cohort. We show that DLL3 and CEACAM5 exhibit the highest expression in neuroendocrine prostate cancer (NEPC), while TROP2 is expressed across different CRPC molecular subtypes, except for NEPC. We observed variable intra-tumoral and inter-tumoral heterogeneity and no dominant metastatic site predilections for TROP2, DLL3, and CEACAM5. We further show that AR amplifications were associated with higher expression of PSMA and TROP2 but lower DLL3 and CEACAM5 levels. Conversely, PSMA and TROP2 expression was lower in RB1-altered tumors. In addition to genomic alterations, we demonstrate a tight correlation between epigenetic states, particularly histone H3 lysine 27 methylation (H3K27me3) at the transcriptional start site and gene body of TACSTD2 (encoding TROP2), DLL3, and CEACAM5, and their respective protein expression in CRPC patient-derived xenografts. Collectively, these findings provide novel insights into the patterns and determinants of expression of TROP2, DLL3, and CEACAM5 with important implications for the clinical development of cell surface targeting agents in CRPC.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Prostate Cancer Screening in the UK: A Decision Model Analysis Based on the CAP Trial.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Most guidelines in the UK, Europe and North America do not recommend organised population-wide screening for prostate cancer. Prostate-specific antigen-based screening can reduce prostate cancer-specific mortality, but there are concerns about overdiagnosis, overtreatment and economic value. The aim was therefore to assess the cost effectiveness of eight potential screening strategies in the UK. METHODS: We used a cost-utility analysis with an individual-based simulation model. The model was calibrated to data from the 10-year follow-up of the Cluster Randomised Trial of PSA Testing for Prostate Cancer (CAP). Treatment effects were modelled using data from the Prostate Testing for Cancer and Treatment (ProtecT) trial. The participants were a hypothetical population of 10 million men in the UK followed from age 30 years to death. The strategies were: no screening; five age-based screening strategies; adaptive screening, where men with an initial prostate-specific antigen level of < 1.5 ng/mL are screened every 6 years and those above this level are screened every 4 years; and two polygenic risk-stratified screening strategies. We assumed the use of pre-biopsy multi-parametric magnetic resonance imaging for men with prostate-specific antigen ≥ 3 ng/mL and combined transrectal ultrasound-guided and targeted biopsies. The main outcome measures were projected lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life-years from a National Health Service perspective. RESULTS: All screening strategies increased costs compared with no screening, with the majority also increasing quality-adjusted life-years. At willingness-to-pay thresholds of £20,000 or £30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, a once-off screening at age 50 years was optimal, although this was sensitive to the utility estimates used. Although the polygenic risk-stratified screening strategies were not on the cost-effectiveness frontier, there was evidence to suggest that they were less cost ineffective than the alternative age-based strategies. CONCLUSIONS: Of the prostate-specific antigen-based strategies compared, only a once-off screening at age 50 years was potentially cost effective at current UK willingness-to-pay thresholds. An additional follow-up of CAP to 15 years may reduce uncertainty about the cost effectiveness of the screening strategies.

Efficacy of systemic therapies in men with metastatic castration resistant prostate cancer harboring germline ATM versus BRCA2 mutations.

BACKGROUND: Among men with metastatic prostate cancer, about 10% have germline alterations in DNA damage response genes. Most studies have examined BRCA2 alone or an aggregate of BRCA1/2 and ATM. Emerging data suggest that ATM mutations may have distinct biology and warrant individual evaluation. The objective of this study is to determine whether response to prostate cancer systemic therapies differs between men with germline mutations in ATM (gATM) and BRCA2 (gBRCA2). METHODS: This is an international multicenter retrospective matched cohort study of men with prostate cancer harboring gATM or gBRCA2. PSA50 response (≥50% decline in prostate-specific antigen) was compared using Fisher's exact test. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: The study included 45 gATM and 45 gBRCA2 patients, matched on stage and year of germline testing. Patients with gATM and gBRCA2 had similar age, Gleason grade, and PSA at diagnosis. We did not observe differences in PSA50 responses to abiraterone, enzalutamide, or docetaxel in metastatic castration resistant prostate cancer between the two groups; however, 0/7 with gATM and 12/14 with gBRCA2 achieved PSA50 response to PARPi (p < .001). Median (95% confidence interval) overall survival from diagnosis to death was 10.9 years (9.5-not reached) versus 9.9 years (7.1-not reached, p = .07) for the gATM and gBRCA2 cohorts, respectively. Limitations include the retrospective design and lack of mutation zygosity data. CONCLUSIONS: Conventional therapies can be effective in gATM carriers and should be considered before PARPi, which shows limited efficacy in this group. Men with gATM mutations warrant prioritization for novel treatment strategies.

Economic Evaluation of Urine-Based or Magnetic Resonance Imaging Reflex Tests in Men With Intermediate Prostate-Specific Antigen Levels in the United States.

OBJECTIVES: For men with intermediate prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels (4-10 ng/mL), urine-based biomarkers and multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) are increasingly used as reflex tests before prostate biopsy. We assessed the cost effectiveness of these reflex tests in the United States. METHODS: We used an existing microsimulation model of prostate cancer (PCa) progression and survival to predict lifetime outcomes for a hypothetical cohort of 55-year-old men with intermediate PSA levels. Urine-based biomarkers-PCa antigen (PCA3), TMPRSS2:ERG gene fusion (T2:ERG), and the MyProstateScore (MPS) for any PCa and for high-grade (Gleason score ≥7) PCa (MPShg)-were generated using biomarker data from 1112 men presenting for biopsy at 10 United States institutions. MRI results were based on published sensitivity and specificity for high-grade PCa. Costs and utilities were sourced from literature and Medicare reimbursement schedules. Outcome measures included life years, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and lifetime medical costs per patient. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were empirically calculated on the basis of simulated life histories under different reflex testing strategies. RESULTS: Biopsying all men provided the most life years and QALYs, followed by reflex testing using MPShg, MPS, MRI, T2:ERG, PCA3, and biopsying no men (QALY range across strategies 15.98-16.09). Accounting for costs, MRI and MPShg were dominated by other strategies. PCA3, T2:ERG, and MPS were likely to be the most cost-effective strategy at willingness-to-pay thresholds of $100 000/QALY, $125 000/QALY, and $150 000/QALY, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Using PCA3, T2:ERG, or MPS as reflex tests has greater economic value than MRI, biopsying all men, or biopsying no men with intermediate PSA levels.

Clarifying the Trade-Offs of Risk-Stratified Screening for Prostate Cancer: A Cost-Effectiveness Study.

Cancer risk prediction is necessary for precision early detection, which matches screening intensity to risk. However, practical steps for translating risk predictions to risk-stratified screening policies are not well established. We used a validated population prostate-cancer model to simulate the outcomes of strategies that increase intensity for men at high risk and reduce intensity for men at low risk. We defined risk by the Prompt Prostate Genetic Score (PGS) (Stratify Genomics, San Diego, California), a germline genetic test. We first recalibrated the model to reflect the disease incidence observed within risk strata using data from a large prevention trial where some participants were tested with Prompt PGS. We then simulated risk-stratified strategies in a population with the same risk distribution as the trial and evaluated the cost-effectiveness of risk-stratified screening versus universal (risk-agnostic) screening. Prompt PGS risk-adapted screening was more cost-effective when universal screening was conservative. Risk-stratified strategies improved outcomes at a cost of less than $100,000 per quality-adjusted life year compared with biennial screening starting at age 55 years, but risk stratification was not cost-effective compared with biennial screening starting at age 45. Heterogeneity of risk and fraction of the population within each stratum were also important determinants of cost-effectiveness.

Clinical determinants for successful circulating tumor DNA analysis in prostate cancer.

BACKGROUND: Plasma-based cell-free DNA is an attractive biospecimen for assessing somatic mutations due to minimally-invasive real-time sampling. However, next generation sequencing (NGS) of cell-free DNA (cfDNA) may not be appropriate for all patients with advanced prostate cancer (PC). METHODS: Blood was obtained from advanced PC patients for plasma-based sequencing. UW-OncoPlex, a ∼2 Mb multi-gene NGS panel performed in the CLIA/CAP environment, was optimized for detecting cfDNA mutations. Tumor tissue and germline samples were sequenced for comparative analyses. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to determine the clinical characteristic associated with the successful detection of somatic cfDNA alterations (ie detection of at least one clearly somatic PC mutation). RESULTS: Plasma for cfDNA sequencing was obtained from 93 PC patients along with tumor tissue (N = 67) and germline (N = 93) controls. We included data from 76 patients (72 prostate adenocarcinoma; 4 variant histology PC) in the analysis. Somatic DNA aberrations were detected in 34 cfDNA samples from patients with prostate adenocarcinoma. High PSA level, high tumor volume, and castration-resistance were significantly associated with successful detection of somatic cfDNA alterations. Among samples with somatic mutations detected, the cfDNA assay detected 93/102 (91%) alterations found in tumor tissue, yielding a clustering-corrected sensitivity of 92% (95% confidence interval 88-97%). All germline pathogenic variants present in lymphocyte DNA were also detected in cfDNA (N = 12). Somatic mutations from cfDNA were detected in 30/33 (93%) instances when PSA was >10 ng/mL. CONCLUSIONS: Disease burden, including a PSA >10 ng/mL, is strongly associated with detecting somatic mutations from cfDNA specimens.

Racial disparities in prostate cancer survival in a screened population: Reality versus artifact.

BACKGROUND: Racial disparities in prostate cancer survival (PCS) narrowed during the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) era, suggesting that screening may induce more equitable outcomes. However, the effects of lead time and overdiagnosis can inflate survival even without real screening benefit. METHODS: A simulation model of PCS in the early PSA era (1991-2000) was created. The modeled survival started with baseline survival in the pre-PSA era (1975-1990) and added lead times and overdiagnosis using estimates from published studies. The authors quantified 1) discrepancies between modeled and observed PCS in the PSA era and 2) residual period effects on PCS given specified values for screening benefit. RESULTS: Lead time and overdiagnosis explained more of the improvement in PCS for older ages at diagnosis (46% [95% confidence interval (CI), 44%-50%] for blacks and 51% [95% CI, 50%-52%] for all races ages 50-54 years vs 98% [95% CI, 97%-99%] for blacks and 100% for all races ages 75-79 years). They also explained more of the narrowing in PCS disparities for older ages (33% [95% CI, 31%-43%] for men ages 50-54 years vs 74% [95% CI, 71%-81%] for men ages 75-79 years). The period effects amounted to reductions of 27% to 40% among blacks and 26% to 38% among all races in the risk of prostate cancer death, depending on the screening benefit. CONCLUSIONS: Real improvements in survival disparities in the PSA era are smaller than those observed and reflect similar reductions in the risk of prostate cancer death among blacks and all races. Understanding screening artifacts is necessary for valid interpretation of observed survival trends. Cancer 2018;124:1752-9. © 2018 American Cancer Society.

Economic Analysis of Prostate-Specific Antigen Screening and Selective Treatment Strategies.

IMPORTANCE: Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening for prostate cancer is controversial. Experts have suggested more personalized or more conservative strategies to improve benefit-risk tradeoffs, but the value of these strategies-particularly when combined with increased conservative management for low-risk cases-is uncertain. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the potential cost-effectiveness of plausible PSA screening strategies and to assess the value added by increased use of conservative management among low-risk, screen-detected cases. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A microsimulation model of prostate cancer incidence and mortality was created. A simulated contemporary cohort of US men beginning at 40 years of age underwent 18 strategies for PSA screening. Treatment strategies included (1) contemporary treatment practices based on age and cancer stage and grade observed in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program in 2010 or (2) selective treatment practices whereby cases with a Gleason score lower than 7 and clinical T2a stage cancer or lower are treated only after clinical progression, and all other cases undergo contemporary treatment practices. National and trial data on PSA growth, screening and biopsy patterns, incidence of prostate cancer, treatment distributions, treatment efficacy, mortality, health-related quality of life, and direct medical expenditure were analyzed. Data were collected from March 18, 2009, to August 15, 2014, and analyzed from November 20, 2012, to December 11, 2015. INTERVENTIONS: Eighteen screening strategies that vary by start and stop age, screening interval, and criteria for biopsy referral and contemporary or selective treatment practices. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Life-years (LYs), quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), direct medical expenditure, and cost per LY and QALY gained. RESULTS: All 18 screening strategies were associated with increased LYs (range, 0.03-0.06) and costs ($263-$1371) compared with no screening, with the cost ranging from $7335 to $21 649 per LY. With contemporary treatment, only strategies with biopsy referral for PSA levels higher than 10.0 ng/mL or age-dependent thresholds were associated with increased QALYs (0.002-0.004), and only quadrennial screening of patients aged 55 to 69 years was potentially cost-effective in terms of cost per QALY (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, $92 446). With selective treatment, all strategies were associated with increased QALYs (0.002-0.004), and several strategies were potentially cost-effective in terms of cost per QALY (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, $70 831-$136 332). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: For PSA screening to be cost-effective, it needs to be used conservatively and ideally in combination with a conservative management approach for low-risk disease.

Is prostate cancer screening cost-effective? A microsimulation model of prostate-specific antigen-based screening for British Columbia, Canada.

Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening for prostate cancer may reduce mortality, but it incurs considerable risk of over diagnosis and potential harm to quality of life. Our objective was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of PSA screening, with and without adjustment for quality of life, for the British Columbia (BC) population. We adapted an existing natural history model using BC incidence, treatment, cost and mortality patterns. The modeled mortality benefit of screening derives from a stage-shift mechanism, assuming mortality reduction consistent with the European Study of Randomized Screening for Prostate Cancer. The model projected outcomes for 40-year-old men under 14 combinations of screening ages and frequencies. Cost and utility estimates were explored with deterministic sensitivity analysis. The incremental cost-effectiveness of regular screening ranged from $36,300/LYG, for screening every four years from ages 55 to 69 years, to $588,300/LYG, for screening every two years from ages 40 to 74 years. The marginal benefits of increasing screening frequency to 2 years or starting screening at age 40 years were small and came at significant cost. After utility adjustment, all screening strategies resulted in a loss of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs); however, this result was very sensitive to utility estimates. Plausible outcomes under a range of screening strategies inform discussion of prostate cancer screening policy in BC and similar jurisdictions. Screening may be cost-effective, but the sensitivity of results to utility values suggests individual preferences for quality versus quantity of life should be a key consideration.

Long-term projections of the harm-benefit trade-off in prostate cancer screening are more favorable than previous short-term estimates.

OBJECTIVE: To project long-term estimates of the number needed to screen (NNS) and the additional number needed to treat (NNT) to prevent one prostate cancer death with prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening in Europe and in the United States. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: A mathematical model of disease-specific deaths in screened and unscreened men given information on overdiagnosis, disease-specific survival in the absence of screening, screening efficacy, and other-cause mortality is presented. A simulation framework is used to incorporate competing causes of death. RESULTS: Assuming overdiagnosis and screening efficacy consistent with European Randomized study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) results, we project that, after 25 years, 262 men need to be screened and nine additional men need to be screen detected to prevent one prostate cancer death. Corresponding estimates of the NNS and the additional NNT under a range of overdiagnosis rates that are consistent with U.S. incidence are 186-220 and 2-5. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term estimates of the NNS and the additional NNT are an order of magnitude lower than the short-term estimates published with the results of the ERSPC trial and may be consistent with cost-effective PSA screening in the general U.S. population.