Persistence of severe global inequalities in the burden of blindness and vision loss from 1990 to 2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

AIMS: To assess the global burden and economic inequalities in the distribution of blindness and vision loss between 1990 and 2019. METHODS: A secondary analysis of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. Data for disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to blindness and vision loss were extracted from the GBD 2019. Data for gross domestic product per capita were extracted from the World Bank database. Slope index of inequality (SII) and concentration index were computed to assess absolute and relative cross-national health inequality, respectively. RESULTS: Countries with high, high-middle, middle, low-middle and low Socio-demographic Index (SDI) had decline of age-standardised DALY rate of 4.3%, 5.2%, 16.0%, 21.4% and 11.30% from 1990 to 2019, respectively. The poorest 50% of world citizens bore 59.0% and 66.2% of the burden of blindness and vision loss in 1990 and 2019, respectively. The absolute cross-national inequality (SII) fell from -303.5 (95% CI -370.8 to -236.2) in 1990 to -256.0 (95% CI -288.1 to -223.8) in 2019. The relative inequality (concentration index) for global blindness and vision loss remained essentially constant between 1991 (-0.197, 95% CI -0.234 to -0.160) and 2019 (-0.193, 95% CI -0.216 to -0.169). CONCLUSION: Though countries with middle and low-middle SDI were the most successful in decreasing burden of blindness and vision loss, a high level of cross-national health inequality persisted over the past three decades. More attention must be paid to the elimination of avoidable blindness and vision loss in low-income and middle-income countries.

Global, regional, and national burden of multiple sclerosis from 1990 to 2019: Findings of global burden of disease study 2019.

Background: The global rising prevalence and incidence of multiple sclerosis (MS) has been reported during the past decades. However, details regarding the evolution of MS burden have not been fully studied. This study aimed to investigate the global, regional, and national burden and temporal trends in MS incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2019 using the age-period-cohort analysis. Methods: We performed a secondary comprehensive analysis of incidence, deaths, and DALYs of MS by calculating the estimated annual percentage change from 1990 to 2019 obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study. The independent age, period, and birth cohort effects were evaluated by an age-period-cohort model. Results: In 2019, there were 59,345 incident MS cases and 22,439 MS deaths worldwide. The global number of incidences, deaths, and DALYs of MS followed an upward trend, whereas the age-standardized rates (ASR) slightly declined from 1990 to 2019. High socio-demographic index (SDI) regions had the highest ASR of incidences, deaths, and DALYs in 2019, while the rate of deaths and DALYs in medium SDI regions are the lowest. Six regions which include high-income North America, Western Europe, Australasia, Central Europe, and Eastern Europe had higher ASR of incidences, deaths, and DALYs than other regions in 2019. The age effect showed that the relative risks (RRs) of incidence and DALYs reached the peak at ages 30-39 and 50-59, respectively. The period effect showed that the RRs of deaths and DALYs increased with the period. The cohort effect showed that the later cohort has lower RRs of deaths and DALYs than the early cohort. Conclusion: The global cases of incidence, deaths, and DALYs of MS have all increased, whereas ASR has declined, with different trends in different regions. High SDI regions such as European countries have a substantial burden of MS. There are significant age effects for incidence, deaths, and DALYs of MS globally, and period effects and cohort effects for deaths and DALYs.

The ASK-SEAT: a competency-based assessment scale for students majoring in clinical medicine.

BACKGROUND: To validate a competency-based assessment scale for students majoring in clinical medicine, ASK-SEAT. Students' competency growth across grade years was also examined for trends and gaps. METHODS: Questionnaires were distributed online from May through August in 2018 to Year-2 to Year-6 students who majored in clinical medicine at the Shantou University Medical College (China). Cronbach alpha values were calculated for reliability of the scale, and exploratory factor analysis employed for structural validity. Predictive validity was explored by correlating Year-4 students' self-assessed competency ratings with their licensing examination scores (based on Kendall's tau-b values). All students' competency development over time was examined using the Mann-Whitney U test. RESULTS: A total of 760 questionnaires meeting the inclusion criteria were analyzed. The overall Cronbach's alpha value was 0.964, and the item-total correlations were all greater than 0.520. The overall KMO measure was 0.966 and the KMO measure for each item was greater than 0.930 (P < 0.001). The eigenvalues of the top 3 components extracted were all greater than 1, explaining 55.351, 7.382, and 5.316% of data variance respectively, and 68.048% cumulatively. These components were aligned with the competency dimensions of skills (S), knowledge (K), and attitude (A). Significant and positive correlations (0.135 < Kendall's tau-b < 0.276, p < 0.05) were found between Year-4 students' self-rated competency levels and their scores for the licensing examination. Steady competency growth was associated with almost all indicators, with the most pronounced growth in the domain of skills. A lack of steady growth was seen in the indicators of "applying the English language" and "conducting scientific research & innovating". CONCLUSIONS: The ASK-SEAT, a competency-based assessment scale developed to measure medical students' competency development shows good reliability and structural validity. For predictive validity, weak-to-moderate correlations are found between Year-4 students' self-assessment and their performance at the national licensing examination (Year-4 students start their clinical clerkship during the 2nd semester of their 4th year of study). Year-2 to Year-6 students demonstrate steady improvement in the great majority of clinical competency indicators, except in the indicators of "applying the English language" and "conducting scientific research & innovating".

A KSA system for competency-based assessment of clinicians' professional development in China and quality gap analysis.

BACKGROUND: We aim to create a holistic competency-based assessment system to measure competency evolution over time - one of the first such systems in China. METHOD: Two rounds of self-reported surveys were fielded among the graduates from the Shantou University Medical College: June through December 2017, and May through August 2018. Responses from three cohorts of graduates specializing in clinical medicine - new graduates, resident physicians, and senior physicians - were analyzed. Gaps between respondents' expected and existing levels of competencies were examined using a modified service quality model, SERVQUAL. RESULTS: A total of 605 questionnaires were collected in 2017 for the construction of competency indicators and a 5-level proficiency rating scale, and 407 in 2018, for confirmatory factor and competency gap analysis. Reliability coefficients of all competency indicators (36) were greater than 0.9. Three competency domains were identified through exploratory factor analysis: knowledge (K), skills (S), and attitude (A). The confirmatory factor analysis confirmed the fit of the scale (CMIN/DF < 4; CFI > 0.9; IFI > 0.9; RMSEA ≤ 0.08). Within the cohorts of resident and senior physicians, the largest competency gap was seen in the domain of knowledge (K): -1.84 and -1.41, respectively. Among new graduates, the largest gap was found in the domain of skills (S) (-1.92), with the gap in knowledge (-1.91) trailing closely behind. CONCLUSIONS: A competency-based assessment system is proposed to evaluate clinician's competency development in three domains: knowledge (K), skills (S), and attitude (A). The system consists of 36 competency indicators, a rating scale of 5 proficiency levels, and a gap analysis to measure competency evolution through 3 key milestones in clinician's professional career: new graduate, resident physician, and senior physician. The competency gaps identified can provide evidence-based guide to clinicians' own continuous development as well as future medical curriculum improvements.

Health economics modeling of antiretroviral interventions amongst HIV serodiscordant couples.

Antiretroviral treatment (ART) and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV-serodiscordant couples, effectively reduce mortality, transmission events and influence quality of life at the expense of increased costs. We aimed to evaluate health economics of antiretroviral-based strategies for HIV-serodiscordant couples in the China context. A deterministic model of HIV evolution and transmission within a cohort of serodiscordant couples was parameterized using the real-world database of Zhoukou city and published literature. We evaluated the mid-ART (a historical strategy, initiating ART with CD4 < 500 cells/mm3), early-ART (the current strategy, offering ART regardless of CD4 cell counts) and a hypothetical strategy (early-ART combined short-term daily PrEP) versus the late-ART (the baseline strategy, initiating ART with CD4 < 350 cells/mm3) offered by 2008 national guidelines. We estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) and incremental cost-utility ratios (ICUR) from a societal perspective, derived by clinical benefits and HIV-caused life quality respectively, and portrayed their changes over a 0-30 year's timeframe. The model projections indicated that the antiretroviral-based interventions were more likely to obtain clinical benefits but difficult to improve quality of life, and cumulative ICER and ICUR were generally decreasing without achieving cost-saving. Scale-up access to ART for the HIV-positive among serodiscordant couples was easily fallen within the range of paying for incremental life-years and quality adjusted life years by the societal willingness. The hypothetical strategy had the potential to prevent most seroconversion events within marriages but required enormous upfront costs, thus it took a long time to reach established thresholds. The current strategy of early-ART is the most cost-effective. Clarifying the obstacles of high cost of PrEP and improving life quality for HIV-serodiscordant couples have emerged as an urgent requisition.

Global patterns and trends in ovarian cancer incidence: age, period and birth cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: Ovarian cancer (OC) is the seventh most common malignancy worldwide and the most lethal gynaecological malignancy. We aimed to explore global geographical patterns and temporal trends from 1973 to 2015 for 41 countries in OC incidence and especially to analyse the birth cohort effect to gain further insight into the underlying causal factors of OC and identify countries with increasing risk of OC. METHODS: OC data were drawn from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents databases and online databases published by governments. The joinpoint regression model was applied to detect changes in OC trends. The age-period-cohort model was applied to explore age and birth cohort effects. RESULTS: The age-standardized rate of OC incidence ranged from 3.0 to 11.4 per 100,000 women worldwide in 2012. The highest age-standardized rate was observed in Central and Eastern Europe, with 11.4 per 100,000 women in 2012. For the most recent 10-year period, the increasing trends were mainly observed in Central and South America, Asia and Central and Eastern Europe. The largest significant increase was observed in Brazil, with an average annual percentage change of 4.4%. For recent birth cohorts, cohort-specific increases in risk were pronounced in Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Lithuania, the United Kingdom, Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, Malta, Slovenia, Bulgaria, Russia, Australia, New Zealand, Brazil, Costa Rica, Ecuador, India, Japan, the Philippines and Thailand. CONCLUSIONS: Disparities in the incidence and risk of OC persist worldwide. The increased risk of birth cohort in OC incidence was observed for most countries in Asia, Central and Eastern Europe, and Central and South America. The reason for the increasing OC risk for recent birth cohorts in these countries should be investigated with further epidemiology studies.

Ambient Air Pollution and Risk for Ischemic Stroke: A Short-Term Exposure Assessment in South China.

Data on the association between air pollution and risk of ischemic stroke in China are still limited. This study aimed to investigate the association between short-term exposure to ambient air pollution and risk of ischemic strokes in Guangzhou, the most densely-populated city in south China, using a large-scale multicenter database of stroke hospital admissions. Daily counts of ischemic stroke admissions over the study years 2013-2015 were obtained from the Guangzhou Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Disease Event Surveillance System. Daily particulate matter <2.5 µm in diameter (PM2.5), sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ozone (O3), and meteorological data were collected. The associations between air pollutants and hospital admissions for stroke were examined using relative risks (RRs) and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) based on time-series Poisson regression models, adjusting for temperature, public holiday, day of week, and temporal trends in stroke. Ischemic stroke admissions increased from 27,532 to 35,279 through 2013 to 2015, increasing by 28.14%. Parameter estimates for NO2 exposure were robust regardless of the model used. The association between same-day NO2 (RR = 1.0509, 95% CI: 1.0353-1.0668) exposure and stroke risk was significant when accounting for other air pollutants, day of the week, public holidays, temperature, and temporal trends in stroke events. Overall, we observed a borderline significant association between NO2 exposure modeled as an averaged lag effect and ischemic stroke risk. This study provides data on air pollution exposures and stroke risk, and contributes to better planning of clinical services and emergency contingency response for stroke.

The relationship between job satisfaction, work stress, work-family conflict, and turnover intention among physicians in Guangdong, China: a cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relationship between job satisfaction, work stress, work-family conflict and turnover intention, and explore factors associated with turnover intention, among physicians in Guangdong Province, China. METHODS: From August to October 2013, physicians completed questionnaires and scales with regard to their job satisfaction, work stress, work-family conflict, and turnover intention. Binary logistic regression and structural equation modelling (SEM) were used in data analysis. RESULTS: A total of 3963 physicians were approached, with 3563 completing the questionnaire. The mean score of the overall perception of turnover intention of physicians who worked in Guangdong was 2.71 on a scale ranging from 1 to 6. Hours worked per week, working in an urban/rural area, type of institution, and age significantly impacted on turnover intention. Turnover intention was directly and negatively related to job satisfaction, and it was directly, indirectly and positively related to work stress and work-family conflict. CONCLUSION: Job satisfaction, work stress, work-family conflict, hours worked per week, working in an urban/rural area, types of institution and age are influencing factors of turnover intention. Reducing working hours, raising salary, providing more opportunities for career development and training, supporting and encouraging physicians by senior managers could potentially contribute to the reduction in turnover intention.

Job satisfaction and associated factors among healthcare staff: a cross-sectional study in Guangdong Province, China.

OBJECTIVES: This cross-sectional study aimed to explore job satisfaction among healthcare staff in Guangdong following the health system reforms in 2009, and to investigate the association between job satisfaction and work stress, work-family conflict and doctor-patient relationship. DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey. SETTING: The Fifth National Health Service Survey was carried out in Guangdong, China. PARTICIPANTS: All participants in this study were healthcare staff including physicians, nurses and public health staff from hospitals, health service centres and health clinics. A total of 6583 questionnaires were distributed and collected. After excluding the incomplete questionnaires, 5845 questionnaires were included for the analysis. OUTCOME MEASURES: Sociodemographic information and scores for evaluating job satisfaction, work stress, work-family conflict and doctor-patient relationship were obtained using the questionnaire developed by the National Health and Family Planning Commission of the People's Republic of China. To assess the significantly associated factors on job satisfaction of the healthcare staff in Guangdong, a binary logistic regression model was used. RESULTS: Based on the 5845 valid responses of the healthcare staff who worked in Guangdong, the mean score of overall perception of job satisfaction was 3.99 on a scale of 1-6. Among the sociodemographic variables, occupation, educational background, professional status, years of service, annual income and night shift frequency significantly influenced the level of job satisfaction. Work stress, work-family conflict and doctor-patient relationship also had significant effect on job satisfaction. CONCLUSIONS: The overall job satisfaction exceeded slightly dissatisfied (score 3) and approached slightly satisfied (score 4). Measures to enhance job satisfaction include the reduction of workload, increase of welfare, maintaining moderate stress and balancing work-family conflict. Moreover, relevant laws should be issued to protect the healthcare staff from violent acts.

Syphilis in the economic center of South China: results from a real-time, web-based surveillance program.

BACKGROUND: Guangzhou is the economic center of South China, which is currently suffering an insidious re-emergence of syphilis. Syphilis epidemic in this area is a matter of serious concern, because of the special economic position of Guangzhou and its large migrant population. Therefore, a comprehensive analysis of surveillance data is needed to provide further information for developing targeted control programs. METHOD: Case-based surveillance data obtained from a real-time, web-based system were analyzed. A hierarchical clustering method was applied to classify the 12 districts of Guangzhou into several epidemiological regions. The district-level annual incidence and clustering results were displayed on the same map to show the spatial patterns of syphilis in Guangzhou. RESULTS: A total of 60,178 syphilis cases were reported during the period from 2005 to 2013, among which primary/secondary syphilis accounted for 15,864 cases (26.36 %), latent syphilis for 41,078 cases (68.26 %) and congenital syphilis for 2,090 cases (3.47 %). Moreover, primary/secondary syphilis burden slightly decreased from 17.5-18.0 cases per 100,000 people in the first years to 10.6 cases per 100,000 in 2013, with latent syphilis largely increasing from 18.5 cases per 100,000 to 43.4 cases per 100,000. Districts of Guangzhou could be classified into 3 epidemiological regions according to the syphilis burden over the last 3 years of the study period. CONCLUSIONS: The burden of primary/secondary syphilis appears to be decreasing in recent years, whereas that of latent syphilis is increasing. Given the epidemiological features and the annual changes found in this study, it is suggested that future control programs should be more population-specific and spatially targeted.

Prognostic evaluation of categorical platelet-based indices using clustering methods based on the Monte Carlo comparison for hepatocellular carcinoma.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the performance of clustering methods used in the prognostic assessment of categorical clinical data for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients in China, and establish a predictable prognostic nomogram for clinical decisions. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 332 newly diagnosed HCC patients treated with hepatic resection during 2006-2009 were enrolled. Patients were regularly followed up at outpatient clinics. Clustering methods including the Average linkage, k-modes, fuzzy k-modes, PAM, CLARA, protocluster, and ROCK were compared by Monte Carlo simulation, and the optimal method was applied to investigate the clustering pattern of the indices including platelet count, platelet/lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and serum aspartate aminotransferase activity/platelet count ratio index (APRI). Then the clustering variable, age group, tumor size, number of tumor and vascular invasion were studied in a multivariable Cox regression model. A prognostic nomogram was constructed for clinical decisions. RESULTS: The ROCK was best in both the overlapping and non-overlapping cases performed to assess the prognostic value of platelet-based indices. Patients with categorical platelet-based indices significantly split across two clusters, and those with high values, had a high risk of HCC recurrence (hazard ratio [HR] 1.42, 95% CI 1.09-1.86; p<0.01). Tumor size, number of tumor and blood vessel invasion were also associated with high risk of HCC recurrence (all p<0.01). The nomogram well predicted HCC patient survival at 3 and 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: A cluster of platelet-based indices combined with other clinical covariates could be used for prognosis evaluation in HCC.