Measuring the burden of comorbidity for ischaemic heart disease and four common non-communicable diseases in Iran, 1990-2017: a modelling study based on global burden of diseases data.

OBJECTIVE: This modelling study aimed to estimate the comorbidity burden for four common non-communicable diseases with ischaemic heart diseases (IHD) in Iran during a period of 28 years. DESIGN: Analysis of the burden of comorbidity with IHD based on data included prevalence rates and the disability weight (DW) average for calculating years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Iran population based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. SETTING: Population-based available data in GBD 2017 study of Iran population. PARTICIPANT: The source of data was the GBD 2017 Study. We evaluated IHD, major depressive disorder (MDD), diabetes mellitus (DM), ischaemic stroke (IS), and osteoarthritis (OA) age-standardised prevalence rates and their DW. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: A new formula that modified the GBD calculator was used to measure the comorbidity YLDs. In the new formula, some multipliers were considered, measuring the departure from independence. RESULT: The contribution of total comorbidity for each combination of IHD with DM, MDD, IS and OA was 2.5%, 2.0%, 1.6% and 2.9%, respectively. The highest YLD rates were observed for IHD_MDD, 16.5 in 1990 and 17.0 in 2017. This was followed by IHD_DM, from 11.5 to 16.9 per 100 000. The YLD rates for IHD_OA changed slightly (6.5-6.7) per 100 000, whereas there was a gradual reduction in the trends of IHD-IS, from 4.0-4.5 per 100 000. CONCLUSION: Of the four comorbidities studied, the highest burden was due to the coexistence of MDD with IHD. Our results highlight the importance of addressing the burden of comorbidities when studying the burden of IHD or any other non-communicable disease.

What the policy and stewardship landscape of a national health research system looks like in a developing country like Iran: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: The health research system (HRS) is an important national priority that requires a systematic and functional approach. Evaluating the HRS of Iran as a developing country and identifying its challenges reveals the stewardship-related role in how the whole system is operating well. This study aims to assess the HRS in terms of stewardship functions and highlight the enhancement points. METHODS: This study was carried out between March 2020 and April 2021 using a systematic review and meta-synthesis of evidence to examine the Iranian HRS stewardship challenges and interview 32 stakeholders, using a critical case sampling and snowballing approach which included both semi-structured and in-depth interviews. The interviewees were selected based on criteria covering policy-makers, managers, research bodies and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) in health research-related fields like higher education, research, technology, innovation and science. All data were analysed using content analysis to determine eight main groups of findings under three levels: macro, meso, and micro. RESULTS: Analysis of the findings identified eight main themes. The most critical challenges were the lack of an integrated leadership model and a shared vision among different HRS stakeholders. Their scope and activities were often contradictory, and their role was not clarified in a predetermined big picture. The other challenges were legislation, priority-setting, monitoring and evaluation, networking, and using evidence as a decision support base. CONCLUSIONS: Stewardship functions are not appropriately performed and are considered the root causes of many other HRS challenges in Iran. Formulating a clear shared vision and a work scope for HRS actors is critical, along with integrating all efforts towards a unified strategy that assists in addressing many challenges of HRS, including developing strategic plans and future-oriented and systematic research, and evaluating performance. Policy-makers and senior managers need to embrace and use evidence, and effective networking and communication mechanisms among stakeholders need to be enhanced. An effective HRS can be achieved by redesigning the processes, regulations and rules to promote transparency and accountability within a well-organized and systematic framework.

Inequality in households' access to primary health care (PHC): a case study in Kerman, southeast Iran.

BACKGROUND: Fair access to health services is a vital issue in low-and middle-income countries. Therefore, the present study was conducted to evaluate the equity in access to primary health care (PHC) services in southeastern Iran. METHODS: This household-based survey was conducted on 1128 households in Kerman, southeastern Iran in 2019-20. A multistage probability method was used to select the samples. The online questionnaire was designed and its link was provided to the questioners. After receiving the training, the questioners went to the door according to the sampling guide. The collected data were analyzed at a significance level of 0.05, using the STATA software. The concentration index (CI) was also used to measure inequality in access to PHC services. RESULTS: The results showed that there was a significant difference between gender and location in access to PHC services (P < 0.05). However, no significant difference was found between the access rates to PHC services and the variables of age, marital, education, health insurance, and Supplementary insurance (P > 0.05). The mean rate of access to PHC services was 3.51 ± 0.53. Cultural access (3.76 ± 0.54) and timely receipt of PHC services (2.51 ± 0.72) accounted for the highest and the lowest access rates, respectively. The concentration index for the distribution of PHC services among the income-adjusted population was 0.014 (CI 95%: -0.022 to 0.051), indicating pro-rich inequalities in access to PHC services. CONCLUSION: The results indicated that pro-rich inequality, but it was close to the equality line. Also, the access level was assessed as moderate to high. Therefore, planning and policy-making seems essential for reduce inequality, and development and promotion of access to PHC services, especially timely provision of services and organizational access.

Future Financing Scenarios for Iran's Healthcare System.

BACKGROUND: The financing function within a health system is considered inherently complex, so it is of utmost importance to design a suitable future for this system given uncertainties and complexities of the environment. With regard to the current and future complicated conditions, health system financing is also likely to succeed if it can anticipate the impacts of effective factors in the future and further plan appropriate interventions ahead of time. Thus, the purpose of this study was to develop scenarios for the health system financing in Iran. METHODS: This mixed-design research of exploratory future studies type was conducted using the scenario method. In this respect, the key variables were evaluated using a questionnaire from two aspects of importance and uncertainty as well as formation of a future studies group (focus group). Finally, sensitivity analysis was carried out through cross-impact balance (CIB) analysis using the Scenario Wizard (Version 4.31) software. RESULTS: A total of 25 factors were selected based on the type and the position of the variables (driving force, bi-dimensional, risk, secondary leverage or modifiable-to-secondary leverage) over the diameter of the MICMAC chart. Considering the degree of significance and uncertainty, eight variables including all four driving force variables (oil sales and economic blockade, leadership and advocacy, bureaucracy and corruption, and possibility of using information technology in providing services), as well as the variables of resource sustainability, natural disasters, regional security, and specialization culture were chosen. Then, five variables were finalized as the key changes that would create the scenario based on sensitivity analysis and final expert opinions. According to the defined conditions, 270 scenarios were developed, of which fourteen scenarios were identified as poorly adaptable and five cases as highly adaptable. CONCLUSION: The best scenario identified in this study based on the degree of adaptation included the use of massive technology and oil sales, mediocre economic conditions with high probability of occurrence, strong leadership and advocacy, high regional security, as well as bureaucracy and low corruption with medium probability of occurrence.

Estimating the Loss in Expectation of Life and Relative Survival Rate among Hemodialysis Patients in Iran.

BACKGROUND: Information regarding the prognosis and burden of diseases can be used by policymakers to determine competing health priorities. We aimed to assess the Relative Survival Rate (RSR) and loss of expectation of life (LEL) to evaluate the prognosis and burden of diseases in Hemodialysis (HD) patients. STUDY DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study. METHODS: We recruited 648 HD patients referred to three referral centers in Kerman City, Iran, from 2008 to 2019. RSR, was defined as the ratio of the observed and the expected survival rates of general population for persons of the same age and sex as patients in the current study. LEL was determined as the difference between corresponding life expectancies (LE). The extended Cox proportional hazard model was used to identify variables associated with the outcome. RESULTS: Variables associated with outcome were diabetic status and age. In the 5th year of the follow-up study, the overall RSR was 0.57. In general, for HD patients, the estimation of LE and LEL was 22.6 and 12.36 year, respectively. CONCLUSION: HD patients, especially older patients, showed a very poor prognosis, with a large amount of lost life expectancy. Therefore, they need more care and attention from health authorities. It is suggested to estimate the cost of eliminating the risk factors causing kidney diseases.

Premature mortality of gastrointestinal cancer in Iran: trends and projections 2001-2030.

BACKGROUND: The present study was conducted to determine the trend and projection of premature mortality from gastrointestinal cancers (GI cancers) at national and subnational levels in Iran. METHODS: Employing the data obtained from Iranian Death Registry System (DRS) and population data from census, the mortality rates of GI cancers was calculated among 30-70 age groups. The trends of esophageal, colon and rectum, gallbladder, pancreases, stomach, and liver cancer premature mortalities were estimated and projected at the national and subnational levels from 2001 to 2030. Then, Spatio-temporal model was used to project spatial and temporal correlations. RESULTS: The overall mortality rate of GI cancers was higher in males than in females, indicating 6.1, 3.9 and 3.9% per 100,000 individuals among males in 2001, 2015 and 2030 respectively and 3.8, 3.1 and 3.7 per 100,000 individuals among females in the same time-frame. The overall mortality rate of GI cancers in males was decreasing until 2015 and will remain stationary into 2030; however, the rate will be increasing among females in both time-frames. Also, there was a considerable variation in the mortality trends of different cancers. Pancreatic, gallbladder, and liver cancers were shown to have an increasing trend while a drop was observed in the mortality rates of stomach, colon and rectum, and esophageal cancers. CONCLUSION: Variation of GI cancers patterns and trends around the country indicated that a more comprehensive control plan is needed to include the predicted variations.

Barriers and motivators to participation and retention in HIV/HCV cohort studies among people who inject drugs: a community consultation in Iran.

BACKGROUND: The lack of robust estimates of HIV/HCV incidence among people who inject drugs (PWID) in Iran calls for well-designed prospective cohort studies. Successful recruitment and follow-up of PWID in cohort studies may require formative assessment of barriers PWID are faced with in participation and retention in cohort studies and factors they think may facilitate their engagement in such studies. Using a focus group discussion (FGD) format, we conducted a consultation with PWID in southeast Iran to recognize those barriers and motivators. METHODS: Using targeted sampling and through snowball referrals, we recruited PWID (aged≥18, injected in last 6 months) from community-based drop-in centers (DICs), homeless shelters, and through outreach efforts to participate in four FGDs (one women-only). Socio-demographic characteristics, injection behaviors and self-reported HCV/HIV testing and diagnosis history were obtained. Then, a semi-structured FGD guide was applied to explore barriers and motivators to participation and retention in cohort studies among study participants. All FGD sessions were recorded and transcribed verbatim, removing any identifying information. The content of FGDs were analyzed by thematic analysis using an inductive approach. RESULTS: In total, 30 individuals (10 women) participated in the study. The median age of participants was 35 (IQR 31-40), with majority (73.3%) reporting injecting drug use within the last month. Only 40.0% reported ever being tested for HCV whereas a larger proportion (63.4%) reported ever being tested for HIV. While the majority were willing to participate in cohort studies, breach of confidentiality, fear of positive test results, perceived required commitment, and marginalization were reported as barriers to participation and retention in such studies. Monetary incentive, the thought of a better life, protection from police interventions and trust between health workers and PWID were addressed as motivators of engagement in cohort studies among PWID. CONCLUSIONS: Strategies to enhance data security and reduce stigma associated with injecting drug use along with involving peer workers in research, providing pre and post-test counselling and education and addressing the needs of more marginalized groups potentially through integrated healthcare programs and housing support are among few approaches that may help address barriers and strengthen the motivators for successful cohort studies among this population.

Setting research priorities to achieve long-term health targets in Iran.

BACKGROUND: In 2015, it was estimated that the burden of disease in Iran comprised of 19 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), 74% of which were due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The observed leading causes of death were cardiovascular diseases (41.9%), neoplasms (14.9%), and road traffic injuries (7.4%). Even so, the health research investment in Iran continues to remain limited. This study aims to identify national health research priorities in Iran for the next five years to assist the efficient use of resources towards achieving the long-term health targets. METHODS: Adapting the Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative (CHNRI) method, this study engaged 48 prominent Iranian academic leaders in the areas related to Iran's long-term health targets, a group of research funders and policy makers, and 68 stakeholders from the wider society. 128 proposed research questions were scored independently using a set of five criteria: feasibility, impact on health, impact on economy, capacity building, and equity. FINDINGS: The top-10 priorities were focused on the research questions relating to: health insurance system reforms to improve equity; integration of NCDs prevention strategy into primary health care; cost-effective population-level interventions for NCDs and road traffic injury prevention; tailoring medical qualifications; epidemiological assessment of NCDs by geographic areas; equality in the distribution of health resources and services; current and future common health problems in Iran's elderly and strategies to reduce their economic burden; the status of antibiotic resistance in Iran and strategies to promote rational use of antibiotics; the health impacts of water crisis; and research to replace the physician-centered health system with a team-based one. CONCLUSIONS: These findings highlight consensus amongst various prominent Iranian researchers and stakeholders over the research priorities that require investment to generate information and knowledge relevant to the national health targets and policies. The exercise should assist in addressing the knowledge gaps to support both the National General Health Policies by 2025 and the health targets of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals by 2030.

Prevalence and intensity of catastrophic health care expenditures in Iran from 2008 to 2015: a study on Iranian household income and expenditure survey.

BACKGROUND: Households exposure to catastrophic health expenditure is a valuable measure to monitor financial protection in health sector payments. The present study had two aims: first, to estimate the prevalence and intensity of catastrophic health expenditures (CHE) in Iran. Second, to investigate main factors that influence the probability of CHE. METHODS: CHE is defined as an occasion in which a household's out-of-pocket (OOP) spending exceeds 40% of the total income that remains after subtraction of living expenses. This study used the data from eight national repeated cross-sectional surveys on households' income and expenditure. The proportion of households facing CHE, as a prevalence measure, was estimated for rural and urban areas. The intensity of CHE was also calculated using overshoot and mean positive overshoot (MPO) measures. The factors affecting the CHE were also analyzed using logistic random effects regression model. We also used ArcMap 10.1 to display visually disparities across the country. RESULTS: An increasing number of Iranians has been subject to catastrophic health care costs over the study period in both rural and urban areas (CHE = 2.57% in 2008 and 3.25% in 2015). In the same period, the overshoot of CHE and the mean positive overshoot ranged from 0.26% to 0.65% and from 12.26% to 20.86%, respectively. The average absolute monetary value of OOP spending per month has been low in rural areas over the years, but the prevalence of CHE has been higher than urban areas. Generally put, rural settlement, higher income, receiving inpatient and outpatient services, and existence of elderly people in the household led to increase in CHE prevalence (p < 0.05). Interestingly, provinces with more limited geographical and cultural accessibility had the lowest CHE. CONCLUSIONS: According to the findings, Iran's healthcare system has failed to realize the aim of five-year national development plan regarding CHE prevalence (1% CHE prevalence according to the plan). Therefore, revision of financial health care protection policies focusing on pre-payments seems mandatory. For instance, these policies should extend the interventions that target low-income populations particularly in rural areas, provide more coverage for catastrophic medical services in basic benefit packages, and develop supplementary health insurance.

Estimating the visibility rate of abortion: a case study of Kerman, Iran.

OBJECTIVES: Abortion is a sensitive issue; many cultures disapprove of it, which leads to under-reporting. This study sought to estimate the rate of abortion visibility in the city of Kerman, Iran-that is, the percentage of acquaintances who knew about a particular abortion. For estimating the visibility rate, it is crucial to use the network scale-up method, which is a new, indirect method of estimating sensitive behaviours more accurately. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This cross-sectional study was conducted in Kerman, Iran using various methods to ensure the cooperation of clinicians and women. A total of 222 women who had had an abortion within the previous year (74 elective, 74 medical and 74 spontaneous abortions) were recruited. Participants were asked how many of their acquaintances were aware of their abortion. Abortion visibility was estimated by abortion type. 95% CIs were calculated by a bootstrap procedure. A zero-inflated negative binomial regression analysis was conducted to assess the variables related to visibility. RESULTS: The visibility (95% CI) of elective, medical and spontaneous abortion was 8% (6% to 10%), 60% (54% to 66%) and 50% (43% to 57%), respectively. Women and consanguineal family were more likely to be aware of the abortion than men and affinal family. Non-family members had a low probability of knowing about the abortion, except in elective cases. Abortion type, marital status, sex of the acquaintance and closeness of the relationship were the most important determinants of abortion visibility in the final multifactorial model. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows the visibility rate to be low, but it does differ among social network members and by the type of abortion in question. This difference might be explained through social and cultural norms as well as stigma surrounding abortion. The low visibility rate might explain the low estimates of abortion rates found in other studies.

Health technology assessment: Off-site sterilization.

BACKGROUND: Every year millions of dollars are expended to equip and maintain the hospital sterilization centers, and our country is not an exception of this matter. According to this, it is important to use more effective technologies and methods in health system in order to reach more effectiveness and saving in costs. This study was conducted with the aim of evaluating the technology of regional sterilization centers. METHODS: This study was done in four steps. At the first step, safety and effectiveness of technology was studied via systematic study of evidence. The next step was done to evaluate the economical aspect of off-site sterilization technology using gathered data from systematic review of the texts which were related to the technology and costs of off-site and in-site hospital sterilization. Third step was conducted to collect experiences of using technology in some selected hospitals around the world. And in the last step different aspects of acceptance and use of this technology in Iran were evaluated. RESULTS: Review of the selected articles indicated that efficacy and effectiveness of this technology is Confirmed. The results also showed that using this method is not economical in Iran. CONCLUSION: According to the revealed evidences and also cost analysis, due to shortage of necessary substructures and economical aspect, installing the off-site sterilization health technology in hospitals is not possible currently. But this method can be used to provide sterilization services for clinics and outpatients centers.

Inequality in Utilization of In-patients Health Services in Iran.

BACKGROUND: Health services for those in need. Inpatient care shows a more serious side of individual care and patients and their family members perceive a high level of stress and urge. We conducted this study to determine inequalities of in-patient health care utilization in Iranian people and to assess factors that influence utilization. METHODS: In each province, the sample was comprised of 380 urban and 380 rural households that were recruited by a systematic random sampling method. A total of 23,560 households, which included around 102,000 individuals were recruited. We used the questionnaire for data collection. Met admission need (MAN) was the main variable and was considered household assets for determining the economic status. We did all analyses using the STATA version 9.1. RESULTS: The rates of MAN for urban and rural areas were 83% and 81.3% respectively. The rate of MAN was significantly higher in patients with higher educational level. Patients with primary health insurance coverage had significantly higher rate of MAN. CONCLUSIONS: Meeting admission needs was estimated around 84% and it seems that modifying insurance coverage is the most feasible intervention for increasing utilization of health services.

Projection of Diabetes Population Size and Associated Economic Burden through 2030 in Iran: Evidence from Micro-Simulation Markov Model and Bayesian Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to estimate the economic burden of diabetes mellitus (DM) in Iran from 2009 to 2030. METHODS: A Markov micro-simulation (MM) model was developed to predict the DM population size and associated economic burden. Age- and sex-specific prevalence and incidence of diagnosed and undiagnosed DM were derived from national health surveys. A systematic review was performed to identify the cost of diabetes in Iran and the mean annual direct and indirect costs of patients with DM were estimated using a random-effect Bayesian meta-analysis. Face, internal, cross and predictive validity of the MM model were assessed by consulting an expert group, performing sensitivity analysis (SA) and comparing model results with published literature and national survey reports. Sensitivity analysis was also performed to explore the effect of uncertainty in the model. RESULTS: We estimated 3.78 million cases of DM (2.74 million diagnosed and 1.04 million undiagnosed) in Iran in 2009. This number is expected to rise to 9.24 million cases (6.73 million diagnosed and 2.50 million undiagnosed) by 2030. The mean annual direct and indirect costs of patients with DM in 2009 were US$ 556 (posterior standard deviation, 221) and US$ 689 (619), respectively. Total estimated annual cost of DM was $3.64 (2009 US$) billion (including US$1.71 billion direct and US$1.93 billion indirect costs) in 2009 and is predicted to increase to $9.0 (in 2009 US$) billion (including US$4.2 billion direct and US$4.8 billion indirect costs) by 2030. CONCLUSIONS: The economic burden of DM in Iran is predicted to increase markedly in the coming decades. Identification and implementation of effective strategies to prevent and manage DM should be considered as a public health priority.

Total and Partial Prevalence of Cancer Across Kerman Province, Iran, in 2014, Using an Adapted Generalized Network Scale-Up Method.

Due to the lack of nationwide population-based cancer registration, the total cancer prevalence in Iran is unknown. Our previous work in which we used a basic network scale-up (NSU) method, failed to provide plausible estimates of total cancer prevalence in Kerman. The aim of the present study was to estimate total and partial prevalence of cancer in southeastern Iran using an adapted version of the generalized network scale-up method. A survey was conducted in 2014 using multi-stage cluster sampling. A total of 1995 face-to-face gender-matched interviews were performed based on an adapted version of the NSU questionnaire. Interviewees were asked about their family cancer history. Total and partial prevalence were estimated using a generalized NSU estimator. The Monte Carlo method was adopted for the estimation of upper/lower bounds of the uncertainty range of point estimates. One-yr, 2-3 yr, and 4-5 yr prevalence (per 100,000 people) was respectively estimated at 78 (95%CI, 66, 90), 128 (95%CI, 118, 147), and 59 (95%CI, 49, 70) for women, and 48 (95%CI, 38, 58), 78 (95%CI, 66, 91), and 42 (95%CI, 32, 52) for men. The 5-yr prevalence of all cancers was estimated at 0.18 percent for men, and 0.27 percent for women. This study showed that the generalized familial network scale-up method is capable of estimating cancer prevalence, with acceptable precision.

Cross-cultural adaptation of the Spence children's anxiety scale in Malaysia.

INTRODUCTION: Anxiety among children has increased in recent years. Culturally adapted questionnaires developed to measure the level of anxiety are the best screening instruments for the general population. This study describes the scientific translation and adaptation of the Spence Children's Anxiety Scale (SCAS) into the Malay language. METHOD: The process of scientific translation of this selfreport instrument followed the guidelines of the Task Force for Translation and Cultural Adaptation of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). RESULTS: The Malay version and its adaptation for a new cultural context are described. CONCLUSION: The Malay version achieved the aims of the original version and its conceptual and operational equivalence. It may be used as the first Malay instrument to measure anxiety among children in research and in clinical and community settings.

Cross-cultural adaptation of the Spence Children's Anxiety Scale in Malaysia / Adaptação cultural da Escala de Ansiedade Infantil de Spence para a Malásia

Introduction: Anxiety among children has increased in recent years. Culturally adapted questionnaires developed to measure the level of anxiety are the best screening instruments for the general population. This study describes the scientific translation and adaptation of the Spence Children's Anxiety Scale (SCAS) into the Malay language. Method: The process of scientific translation of this selfreport instrument followed the guidelines of the Task Force for Translation and Cultural Adaptation of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Results: The Malay version and its adaptation for a new cultural context are described. Conclusion: The Malay version achieved the aims of the original version and its conceptual and operational equivalence. It may be used as the first Malay instrument to measure anxiety among children in research and in clinical and community settings. .

Introdução: A ansiedade infantil tem crescido em anos recentes. Questionários culturalmente adaptados e desenvolvidos para medir o nível de ansiedade são os melhores instrumentos de triagem para a população em geral. Este estudo descreve a tradução e adaptação científica da Escala de Ansiedade Infantil de Spence para a língua malásia. Método: O processo de tradução científica deste instrumento de autorrelato seguiu as orientações da Força-Tarefa para a Tradução e Adaptação Cultural da International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Resultados: A versão malásia e sua adaptação para um novo contexto cultural são descritas. Conclusão: A versão malásia atingiu os objetivos da versão original e sua equivalência conceitual e operacional. Poderá ser usada como o primeiro instrumento malásio para medir ansiedade entre crianças em contextos de pesquisa, clínicos ou comunitários. .

The projection of burden of disease in Islamic Republic of Iran to 2025.

OBJECTIVE: Iran as a developing country is in the transition phase, which might have a big impact on the Burden of Disease and Injury (BOD). This study aims to estimate Burden of Disease and Injury (BOD) in Iran up to 2025 due to four broad cause groups using Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY). METHODS: The impacts of demographic and epidemiological changes on BOD (DemBOD and EpiBOD) were assessed separately. We estimated DemBOD in nine scenarios, using different projections for life expectancy and total fertility rate. EpiBOD was modeled in two scenarios as a proportion of DemBOD, based on the extracted parameters from an international study. FINDINGS: The BOD is projected to increase from 14.3 million in 2003 to 19.4 million in 2025 (95% uncertainty interval: 16.8, 21.9), which shows an overall increase of 35.3%. Non-communicable diseases (12.7 million DALY, 66.0%), injuries (4.6 million DALY, 24.0%), and communicable diseases, except HIV/AIDS (1.8 million DALY, 9%) will be the leading causes of losing healthy life. Under the most likely scenario, the maximum increase in disease burden due to DemBOD is projected to be observed in HIV/AIDS and Non-communicable diseases (63.9 and 62.4%, respectively) and due to EpiBOD in HIV/AIDS (319.5%). CONCLUSION: It seems that in the following decades, BOD will have a sharp increase in Iran, mainly due to DemBOD. It seems that communicable diseases (except HIV/AIDS) will have less contribution, and especially non-communicable diseases will play a more significant role.

The estimation of active social network size of the Iranian population.

OBJECTIVES: The size of active network (C) of Iranian population is a very important parameter to estimate the size of unknown population using Network Scale Up (NSU) technique. However, there is little information about this parameter not only in Iran but also in other countries in Middle East region. Based on these needs, the aim of this paper is to estimate C for the Iranian population. METHODS: Based on available national statistics, 23 reference groups, with known population sizes were selected. Using multistage sampling method, 7454 individuals were recruited randomly around the country. We asked from our samples how many people they knew from each of the reference groups. Using NSU formulae, we maximized the goodness of fit of our estimation about the size of the reference groups by fitting the best C. However, the final C was set by excluding some of the reference groups with no added information; these inappropriate groups were selected by two techniques; regression, and ratio based approaches. RESULTS: Applying regression and ratio based approaches the estimated C was 308 and 380 respectively. The Pearson correlation coefficient between the real and estimated size of reference groups (based on our C) in both methods was above 0.95. However, results of ratio based had better performance. We saw that the network of males, singles, younger age groups, and those with higher education was larger than those in other groups. CONCLUSION: It seems that C in Iran is higher than that in developed countries, possibly because of its social structure. Because of cultural and social similarities in Middle East courtiers, C in other countries also might be higher than that in developed countries.