Free-Breathing Functional Pulmonary Proton MRI: A Novel Approach Using Voxel-Wise Lung Ventilation (VOLVE) Assessment in Healthy Volunteers and Patients With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

BACKGROUND: In respiratory medicine, there is a need for sensitive measures of regional lung function that can be performed using standard imaging technology, without the need for inhaled or intravenous contrast agents. PURPOSE: To describe VOxel-wise Lung VEntilation (VOLVE), a new method for quantifying regional lung ventilation (V) and perfusion (Q) using free-breathing proton MRI, and to evaluate VOLVE in healthy never-smokers, healthy people with smoking history, and people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). STUDY TYPE: Prospective pilot. POPULATION: Twelve healthy never-smoker participants (age 30.3 ± 12.5 years, five male), four healthy participants with smoking history (>10 pack-years) (age 42.5 ± 18.3 years, one male), and 12 participants with COPD (age 62.8 ± 11.1 years, seven male). FIELD STRENGTH/SEQUENCE: Single-slice free-breathing two-dimensional fast field echo sequence at 3 T. ASSESSMENT: A novel postprocessing was developed to evaluate the MR signal changes in the lung parenchyma using a linear regression-based approach, which makes use of all the data in the time series for maximum sensitivity. V/Q-weighted maps were produced by computing the cross-correlation, lag and gradient between the respiratory/cardiac phase time course and lung parenchyma signal time courses. A comparison of histogram median and skewness values and spirometry was performed. STATISTICAL TESTS: Kruskal-Wallis tests with Dunn's multiple comparison tests to compare VOLVE metrics between groups; Spearman correlation to assess the correlation between MRI and spirometry-derived parameters; and Bland-Altman analysis and coefficient of variation to evaluate repeatability were used. A P-value <0.05 was considered significant. RESULTS: Significant differences between the groups were found for ventilation between healthy never-smoker and COPD groups (median XCCV, LagV, and GradV) and perfusion (median XCCQ, LagQ, and GradQ). Minimal bias and no significant differences between intravisit scans were found (P range = 0.12-0.97). DATA CONCLUSION: This preliminary study showed that VOLVE has potential to provide metrics of function quantification. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: 2 TECHNICAL EFFICACY: Stage 1.

Clinical and cost evaluation of two models of specialist intensive support teams for adults with intellectual disabilities who display behaviours that challenge: the IST-ID mixed-methods study.

BACKGROUND: Intensive support teams (ISTs) are recommended for individuals with intellectual disabilities who display behaviours that challenge. However, there is currently little evidence about the clinical and cost-effectiveness of IST models operating in England. AIMS: To investigate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of IST models. METHOD: We carried out a cohort study to evaluate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of two previously identified IST models (independent and enhanced) in England. Adult participants (n = 226) from 21 ISTs (ten independent and 11 enhanced) were enrolled. The primary outcome was change in challenging behaviour between baseline and 9 months as measured by the Aberrant Behaviour Checklist-Community version 2. RESULTS: We found no statistically significant differences between models for the primary outcome (adjusted ß = 4.27; 95% CI -6.34 to 14.87; P = 0.430) or any secondary outcomes. Quality-adjusted life-years (0.0158; 95% CI: -0.0088 to 0.0508) and costs (£3409.95; 95% CI -£9957.92 to £4039.89) of the two models were comparable. CONCLUSIONS: The study provides evidence that both models were associated with clinical improvement for similar costs at follow-up. We recommend that the choice of service model should rest with local services. Further research should investigate the critical components of IST care to inform the development of fidelity criteria, and policy makers should consider whether roll out of such teams should be mandated.

Outbreaks in care homes may lead to substantial disease burden if not mitigated.

The number of COVID-19 outbreaks reported in UK care homes rose rapidly in early March of 2020. Owing to the increased co-morbidities and therefore worse COVID-19 outcomes for care home residents, it is important that we understand this increase and its future implications. We demonstrate the use of an SIS model where each nursing home is an infective unit capable of either being susceptible to an outbreak (S) or in an active outbreak (I). We use a generalized additive model to approximate the trend in growth rate of outbreaks in care homes and find the fit to be improved in a model where the growth rate is proportional to the number of current care home outbreaks compared with a model with a constant growth rate. Using parameters found from the outbreak-dependent growth rate, we predict a 73% prevalence of outbreaks in UK care homes without intervention as a reasonable worst-case planning assumption. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'.

Novel Thoracic MRI Approaches for the Assessment of Pulmonary Physiology and Inflammation.

Excessive pulmonary inflammation can lead to damage of lung tissue, airway remodelling and established structural lung disease. Novel therapeutics that specifically target inflammatory pathways are becoming increasingly common in clinical practice, but there is yet to be a similar stepwise change in pulmonary diagnostic tools. A variety of thoracic magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) tools are currently in development, which may soon fulfil this emerging clinical need for highly sensitive assessments of lung structure and function. Given conventional MRI techniques are poorly suited to lung imaging, alternate strategies have been developed, including the use of inhaled contrast agents, intravenous contrast and specialized lung MR sequences. In this chapter, we discuss technical challenges of performing MRI of the lungs and how they may be overcome. Key thoracic MRI modalities are reviewed, namely, hyperpolarized noble gas MRI, oxygen-enhanced MRI (OE-MRI), ultrashort echo time (UTE) MRI and dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) MRI. Finally, we consider potential clinical applications of these techniques including phenotyping of lung disease, evaluation of novel pulmonary therapeutic efficacy and longitudinal assessment of specific patient groups.

Clinical and cost evaluation of intensive support team (IST) models for adults with intellectual disabilities who display challenging behaviour: a comparative cohort study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Approximately 17% of adults with intellectual disabilities (ID) living in the community display behaviours that challenge. Intensive support teams (ISTs) have been recommended to provide high-quality responsive care aimed at avoiding unnecessary admissions and reducing lengthy inpatient stays in England. We have identified two models of ISTs (model 1: enhanced provision and model 2: independent provision). This study aims to investigate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of the two models of ISTs. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A cohort of 226 adults with ID displaying behaviour that challenges who receive support from ISTs from each model will be recruited and assessed at baseline and 9 months later to compare the clinical and cost-effectiveness between models. The primary outcome is reduction in challenging behaviour measured by the Aberrant Behaviour Checklist-Community (ABC-C). The mean difference in change in ABC score between the two IST models will be estimated from a multilevel linear regression model. Secondary outcomes include mental health status, clinical risk, quality of life, health-related quality of life, level of functioning and service use. We will undertake a cost-effectiveness analysis taking both a health and social care and wider societal perspective. Semistructured interviews will be conducted with multiple stakeholders (ie, service users, paid/family carers, IST managers/staff) to investigate the experience of IST care as well as an online survey of referrers to capture their contact with the teams. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study was approved by the London-Bromley Research Ethics Committee (REC reference: 18/LO/0890). Informed consent will be obtained from the person with ID, or a family/nominated consultee for those lacking capacity and from his/her caregivers. The findings of the study will be disseminated to academic audiences, professionals, experts by experience and arm's-length bodies and policymakers via publications, seminars and digital platforms. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ClinicalTrials.gov Registry (NCT03586375).

Excess mortality for care home residents during the first 23 weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic in England: a national cohort study.

BACKGROUND: To estimate excess mortality for care home residents during the COVID-19 pandemic in England, exploring associations with care home characteristics. METHODS: Daily number of deaths in all residential and nursing homes in England notified to the Care Quality Commission (CQC) from 1 January 2017 to 7 August 2020. Care home-level data linked with CQC care home register to identify home characteristics: client type (over 65s/children and adults), ownership status (for-profit/not-for-profit; branded/independent) and size (small/medium/large). Excess deaths computed as the difference between observed and predicted deaths using local authority fixed-effect Poisson regressions on pre-pandemic data. Fixed-effect logistic regressions were used to model odds of experiencing COVID-19 suspected/confirmed deaths. RESULTS: Up to 7 August 2020, there were 29,542 (95% CI 25,176 to 33,908) excess deaths in all care homes. Excess deaths represented 6.5% (95% CI 5.5 to 7.4%) of all care home beds, higher in nursing (8.4%) than residential (4.6%) homes. 64.7% (95% CI 56.4 to 76.0%) of the excess deaths were confirmed/suspected COVID-19. Almost all excess deaths were recorded in the quarter (27.4%) of homes with any COVID-19 fatalities. The odds of experiencing COVID-19 attributable deaths were higher in homes providing nursing services (OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.6 to 2.0), to older people and/or with dementia (OR 5.5, 95% CI 4.4 to 6.8), amongst larger (vs. small) homes (OR 13.3, 95% CI 11.5 to 15.4) and belonging to a large provider/brand (OR 1.2, 95% CI 1.1 to 1.3). There was no significant association with for-profit status of providers. CONCLUSIONS: To limit excess mortality, policy should be targeted at care homes to minimise the risk of ingress of disease and limit subsequent transmission. Our findings provide specific characteristic targets for further research on mechanisms and policy priority.

Validation of four-dimensional flow cardiovascular magnetic resonance for aortic stenosis assessment.

The management of patients with aortic stenosis (AS) crucially depends on accurate diagnosis. The main aim of this study were to validate the four-dimensional flow (4D flow) cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) methods for AS assessment. Eighteen patients with clinically severe AS were recruited. All patients had pre-valve intervention 6MWT, echocardiography and CMR with 4D flow. Of these, ten patients had a surgical valve replacement, and eight patients had successful transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). TAVI patients had invasive pressure gradient assessments. A repeat assessment was performed at 3-4 months to assess the remodelling response. The peak pressure gradient by 4D flow was comparable to an invasive pressure gradient (54 ± 26 mmHG vs 50 ± 34 mmHg, P = 0.67). However, Doppler yielded significantly higher pressure gradient compared to invasive assessment (61 ± 32 mmHG vs 50 ± 34 mmHg, P = 0.0002). 6MWT was associated with 4D flow CMR derived pressure gradient (r = -0.45, P = 0.01) and EOA (r = 0.54, P < 0.01) but only with Doppler EOA (r = 0.45, P = 0.01). Left ventricular mass regression was better associated with 4D flow derived pressure gradient change (r = 0.64, P = 0.04). 4D flow CMR offers an alternative method for non-invasive assessment of AS. In addition, 4D flow derived valve metrics have a superior association to prognostically relevant 6MWT and LV mass regression than echocardiography.

Staff training in positive behaviour support for behaviour that challenges in people with intellectual disability: cost-utility analysis of a cluster randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Behaviour that challenges in people with intellectual disability is associated with higher healthcare, social care and societal costs. Although behavioural therapies are widely used, there is limited evidence regarding the cost and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). AIMS: We aimed to assess the incremental cost per QALY gained of therapist training in positive behaviour support (PBS) and treatment as usual (TAU) compared with TAU using data from a cluster randomised controlled trial (Clinical Trials.gov registration: NCT01680276). METHOD: We conducted a cost-utility analysis (cost per QALY gained) of 23 teams randomised to PBS or TAU, with a total of 246 participants followed up over 36 months. The primary analysis was from a healthcare cost perspective with a secondary analysis from a societal cost perspective. RESULTS: Over 36 months the intervention resulted in an additional 0.175 QALYs (discounted and adjusted 95% CI -0.068 to 0.418). The total cost of training in and delivery of PBS is £1598 per participant plus an additional cost of healthcare of £399 (discounted and adjusted 95% CI -603 to 1724). From a healthcare cost perspective there is an 85% probability that the intervention is cost-effective compared with TAU at a £30 000 willingness to pay for a QALY threshold. CONCLUSIONS: There was a high probability that training in PBS is cost-effective as the cost of training and delivery of PBS is balanced out by modest improvements in quality of life. However, staff training in PBS is not supported given we found no evidence for clinical effectiveness.

Positive behaviour support training for staff for treating challenging behaviour in people with intellectual disabilities: a cluster RCT.

BACKGROUND: Preliminary studies have indicated that training staff in Positive Behaviour Support (PBS) may help to reduce challenging behaviour among people with intellectual disability (ID). OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether or not such training is clinically effective in reducing challenging behaviour in routine care. The study also included longer-term follow-up (approximately 36 months). DESIGN: A multicentre, single-blind, two-arm, parallel-cluster randomised controlled trial. The unit of randomisation was the community ID service using an independent web-based randomisation system and random permuted blocks on a 1 : 1 allocation stratified by a staff-to-patient ratio for each cluster. SETTING: Community ID services in England. PARTICIPANTS: Adults (aged > 18 years) across the range of ID with challenging behaviour [≥ 15 Aberrant Behaviour Checklist - Community total score (ABC-CT)]. INTERVENTIONS: Manual-assisted face-to-face PBS training to therapists and treatment as usual (TAU) compared with TAU only in the control arm. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Carer-reported changes in challenging behaviour as measured by the ABC-CT over 12 months. Secondary outcomes included psychopathology, community participation, family and paid carer burden, family carer psychopathology, costs of care and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Data on main outcome, service use and health-related quality of life were collected for the 36-month follow-up. RESULTS: A total of 246 participants were recruited from 23 teams, of whom 109 were in the intervention arm (11 teams) and 137 were in the control arm (12 teams). The difference in ABC-CT between the intervention and control arms [mean difference -2.14, 95% confidence interval (CI) -8.79 to 4.51; p = 0.528] was not statistically significant. No treatment effects were found for any of the secondary outcomes. The mean cost per participant in the intervention arm was £1201. Over 12 months, there was a difference in QALYs of 0.076 in favour of the intervention (95% CI 0.011 to 0.140 QALYs) and a 60% chance that the intervention is cost-effective compared with TAU from a health and social care cost perspective at the threshold of £20,000 per QALY gained. Twenty-nine participants experienced 45 serious adverse events (intervention arm, n = 19; control arm, n = 26). PBS plans were available for 33 participants. An independent assessment of the quality of these plans found that all were less than optimal. Forty-six qualitative interviews were conducted with service users, family carers, paid carers and service managers as part of the process evaluation. Service users reported that they had learned to manage difficult situations and had gained new skills, and carers reported a positive relationship with therapists. At 36 months' follow-up (n = 184), the mean ABC-CT difference between arms was not significant (-3.70, 95% CI -9.25 to 1.85; p = 0.191). The initial cost-effectiveness of the intervention dissipated over time. LIMITATIONS: The main limitations were low treatment fidelity and reach of the intervention. CONCLUSIONS: Findings from the main study and the naturalistic follow-up suggest that staff training in PBS as delivered in this study is insufficient to achieve significant clinical gains beyond TAU in community ID services. Although there is an indication that training in PBS is potentially cost-effective, this is not maintained in the longer term. There is increased scope to develop new approaches to challenging behaviour as well as optimising the delivery of PBS in routine clinical practice. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study is registered as NCT01680276. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 22, No. 15. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Model-based analysis of an outbreak of bubonic plague in Cairo in 1801.

Bubonic plague has caused three deadly pandemics in human history: from the mid-sixth to mid-eighth century, from the mid-fourteenth to the mid-eighteenth century and from the end of the nineteenth until the mid-twentieth century. Between the second and the third pandemics, plague was causing sporadic outbreaks in only a few countries in the Middle East, including Egypt. Little is known about this historical phase of plague, even though it represents the temporal, geographical and phylogenetic transition between the second and third pandemics. Here we analysed in detail an outbreak of plague that took place in Cairo in 1801, and for which epidemiological data are uniquely available thanks to the presence of medical officers accompanying the Napoleonic expedition into Egypt at that time. We propose a new stochastic model describing how bubonic plague outbreaks unfold in both rat and human populations, and perform Bayesian inference under this model using a particle Markov chain Monte Carlo. Rat carcasses were estimated to be infectious for approximately 4 days after death, which is in good agreement with local observations on the survival of infectious rat fleas. The estimated transmission rate between rats implies a basic reproduction number R0 of approximately 3, causing the collapse of the rat population in approximately 100 days. Simultaneously, the force of infection exerted by each infected rat carcass onto the human population increases progressively by more than an order of magnitude. We also considered human-to-human transmission via pneumonic plague or human specific vectors, but found this route to account for only a small fraction of cases and to be significantly below the threshold required to sustain an outbreak.

Improving physical health for people taking antipsychotic medication in the Community Learning Disabilities Service.

Adherence with antipsychotic monitoring guidelines is notoriously low nationally. Without active monitoring and measures to improve metabolic abnormalities, more patients may develop related morbidity and mortality. An audit highlighted antipsychotic monitoring in this learning disability service in London did not match guideline recommendations. People with intellectual disability also experience health inequalities. Psychiatrists are well placed to provide advice and assistance that is suitable for those with complex communication, behaviour, and social needs. The QI team tested ideas to increase rates of antipsychotic reviews. The focus was the follow up monitoring of all universal measures recommended by NICE 2014, collected at 2-weekly intervals. We trialled interventions in four broad categories; Intervention 1: to make monitoring more structured and planned; Intervention 2: to increase staff and patient awareness of healthy eating and exercise programs; Intervention 3: to increase the collection of diet and exercise histories from patients; Intervention 4: to improve the uptake of blood tests. The interventions created an improvement in monitoring. There are lessons in the methodology for others carrying out similar projects.

Clinical and cost effectiveness of staff training in Positive Behaviour Support (PBS) for treating challenging behaviour in adults with intellectual disability: a cluster randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Many people with intellectual disability present with challenging behaviour which often has serious consequences such as the prescription of long term medication, in-patient admissions and disruption of normal daily activities. Small scale studies of Positive Behaviour Support (PBS) delivered by paid carers suggest that it reduces challenging behaviour and costs of care and improves quality of life. This study aims to investigate whether professionals training in the delivery of PBS as part of routine practice is clinically and cost effective compared to treatment as usual in community intellectual disability services. METHOD: The study is a multi-centre cluster randomised controlled trial involving community intellectual disability services in England and service users with mild to severe intellectual disability and challenging behaviour. The teams will be randomly allocated into one of two conditions, either training and support to deliver PBS or treatment as usual. We will carry out assessments of challenging behaviour, use of services, quality of life, mental health, and family and paid carer burden at six and 12 months. We will monitor treatment fidelity and we will interview a sample of paid and family carers, service users, staff and managers about what they think of the treatment and how best we can deliver it in routine care. The main outcome is reduction in challenging behaviour at one year after randomisation. We will also carry out a health economic evaluation to examine the costs and consequences of staff training in PBS. DISCUSSION: The study findings will have significant implications for the delivery of PBS in community based services with the potential for reducing inpatient admissions and out-of-area placements for adults with intellectual disability and challenging behaviour. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial is registered with Clinical Trials.gov (Ref NCT01680276 ). Clinical Trials Unit: PRIMENT https://www.ucl.ac.uk/priment/ .

Development of Middle Stone Age innovation linked to rapid climate change.

The development of modernity in early human populations has been linked to pulsed phases of technological and behavioural innovation within the Middle Stone Age of South Africa. However, the trigger for these intermittent pulses of technological innovation is an enigma. Here we show that, contrary to some previous studies, the occurrence of innovation was tightly linked to abrupt climate change. Major innovational pulses occurred at times when South African climate changed rapidly towards more humid conditions, while northern sub-Saharan Africa experienced widespread droughts, as the Northern Hemisphere entered phases of extreme cooling. These millennial-scale teleconnections resulted from the bipolar seesaw behaviour of the Atlantic Ocean related to changes in the ocean circulation. These conditions led to humid pulses in South Africa and potentially to the creation of favourable environmental conditions. This strongly implies that innovational pulses of early modern human behaviour were climatically influenced and linked to the adoption of refugia.

Re-assessment of mitigation strategies for deliberate releases of anthrax using a real-time outbreak characterization tool.

Responding rapidly and appropriately to a covert anthrax release is an important public health challenge. A methodology to assist the geographical targeting of such a response has recently been published; as have a number of independent studies that investigate mitigation strategies. Here, we review and combine some of these published techniques to more realistically assess how key aspects of the public health response might impact on the outcomes of a bioterrorist attack. We combine a within-host mathematical model with our spatial back-calculation method to investigate the effects of a number of important response variables. These include how previously reported levels of adherence with taking antibiotics might affect the total outbreak size compared to assuming full adherence. Post-exposure vaccination is also considered, both with and without the use of antibiotics. Further, we investigate a range of delays (2, 4 and 8 days) before interventions are implemented, following the last day of symptomatic onset of some number of observed initial cases (5, 10 and 15). Our analysis confirms that outbreak size is minimised by implementing prophylactic treatment after having estimated the exposed area based on 5 observed cases; however, imperfect (rather than full) adherence with antibiotics results in approximately 15% additional cases. Moreover, of those infected individuals who only partially adhere with a prophylactic course of antibiotics, 86% remain disease free; a result that holds for scenarios in which infected individuals inhale much higher doses than considered here. Increasing logistical delays have a particularly detrimental effect on lives saved with an optimal strategy of early identification and analysis. Our analysis shows that it is critical to have systems and processes in place to rapidly identify, geospatially analyse and then swiftly respond to a deliberate anthrax release.

Detailed analyses of self-poisoning episodes presenting to a large regional teaching hospital in the UK.

AIMS: The primary aim of this paper is to provide comprehensive contemporaneous data on the demographics, patterns of presentation and management of all episodes of deliberate self-poisoning presenting to a large regional teaching hospital over a 12 month period. METHODS: We undertook detailed, retrospective analyses using information from electronic patient records and local patient-tracking, pathology and administrative databases. Statistical analyses were performed using Chi-squared tests, anova and two-tailed t-tests (Graphpad Prism). RESULTS: One thousand five hundred and ninety-eight episodes of deliberate self-poisoning presented over the year. Demographic data and information on the month, day and time of admission are provided. 70.7% presented to the emergency department (ED) within 4 h of ingestion. 76.3% of patients had only one episode in an extended 29 month follow-up period. A mean of 1.72 drugs were taken per episode with just over half of all episodes involving a single drug only. Paracetamol and ibuprofen were the two most commonly ingested drugs involved in 42.5% and 17.3% of all overdoses respectively. 56.3% of patients taking paracetamol reported ingesting over 8 g (one over the counter packet). Detailed mapping of the patients' pathway through the hospital allowed an estimation of the hospital cost of caring for this patient group at pound 1.6 million pounds per year. CONCLUSIONS: We present comprehensive and contemporary data on presentations to hospital resulting from deliberate self-poisoning. We include demographic information, presentation patterns, drugs used, a detailed analysis of episodes involving paracetamol and an estimate of the financial burden to hospitals of overdose presentations.

Estimating the location and spatial extent of a covert anthrax release.

Rapidly identifying the features of a covert release of an agent such as anthrax could help to inform the planning of public health mitigation strategies. Previous studies have sought to estimate the time and size of a bioterror attack based on the symptomatic onset dates of early cases. We extend the scope of these methods by proposing a method for characterizing the time, strength, and also the location of an aerosolized pathogen release. A back-calculation method is developed allowing the characterization of the release based on the data on the first few observed cases of the subsequent outbreak, meteorological data, population densities, and data on population travel patterns. We evaluate this method on small simulated anthrax outbreaks (about 25-35 cases) and show that it could date and localize a release after a few cases have been observed, although misspecifications of the spore dispersion model, or the within-host dynamics model, on which the method relies can bias the estimates. Our method could also provide an estimate of the outbreak's geographical extent and, as a consequence, could help to identify populations at risk and, therefore, requiring prophylactic treatment. Our analysis demonstrates that while estimates based on the first ten or 15 observed cases were more accurate and less sensitive to model misspecifications than those based on five cases, overall mortality is minimized by targeting prophylactic treatment early on the basis of estimates made using data on the first five cases. The method we propose could provide early estimates of the time, strength, and location of an aerosolized anthrax release and the geographical extent of the subsequent outbreak. In addition, estimates of release features could be used to parameterize more detailed models allowing the simulation of control strategies and intervention logistics.