Mental health systems modelling for evidence-informed service reform in Australia.

Australia's Fifth National Mental Health Plan required governments to report, not only on the progress of changes to mental health service delivery, but to also plan for services that should be provided. Future population demand for treatment and care is challenging to predict and one solution involves modelling the uncertain demands on the system. Modelling can help decision-makers understand likely future changes in mental health service demand and more intelligently choose appropriate responses. It can also support greater scrutiny, accountability and transparency of these processes. Australia has an emerging national capacity for systems modelling in mental health which can enhance the next phase of mental health reform. This paper introduces concepts useful for understanding mental health modelling and identifies where modelling approaches can support health service planners to make evidence-informed decisions regarding planning and investment for the Australian population.

Assessment of the clinical and allergy profiles of PPI responsive and non-responsive eosinophilic esophagitis.

A subset of patients with eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE) respond to proton-pump inhibitor (PPI) therapy, however they cannot be distinguished prior to PPI trial and the mechanism of PPI response remains unclear. Improved understanding of the distinct patient phenotypes in PPI-responsive EoE (PPI-r-EoE), PPI-non-responsive EoE (PPI-nr-EoE) and erosive esophagitis (EE) may help guide management. The aim of this paper is to compare the clinical and allergy profiles of PPI-r-EoE versus PPI-nr-EoE and EE. This was a retrospective case-control study of EoE patients (>15 eos/hpf on esophageal biopsies) at a tertiary center. EE controls were identified from the pathology database. EoE patients were classified as PPI-r-EoE or PPI-nr-EoE based on histologic response to twice-daily PPI for ≥8 weeks. Patient demographics, comorbidities, symptoms, allergy history and endoscopic findings were recorded. Univariate analyses were performed using the Fisher-exact test or t-test. Multivariable analyses were performed using logistic regression. In all, 104 EoE (57 PPI-r-EoE/47 PPI-nr-EoE) and 80 EE subjects were included. On multivariable analyses, allergic conditions (aOR 20.1, P < 0.0001) and rings (aOR 108.3, P = 0.001) were independent predictors for PPI-r-EoE versus EE, whereas allergic conditions (aOR 4.8, P = 0.03), rings (aOR 27.5, P = 0.002) and furrows (aOR 17.1, P = 0.04) were independent predictors for PPI-nr-EoE versus EE. Esophageal rings was the only significant predictor found in PPI-nr-EoE versus PPI-r-EoE (OR 2.5, P = 0.03). Allergic conditions and esophageal rings are significantly more prevalent in PPI-r-EoE and PPI-nr-EoE compared with EE. PPI-r-EoE appears clinically similar to PPI-nr-EoE and significantly different from EE. Further studies are needed to delineate the underlying pathophysiology of PPI-r-EoE versus PPI-nr-EoE.

Inequalities in Access to Mental Health Treatment by Australian Youths During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

OBJECTIVE: The authors aimed to evaluate changes in use of government-subsidized primary mental health services, through the Medicare Benefits Schedule (MBS), by young people during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia and whether changes were associated with age, sex, socioeconomic status, and residence in particular geographical areas. METHODS: Interrupted time-series analyses were conducted by using quarterly mental health MBS service data (all young people ages 12-25 years, 2015-2020) for individual Statistical Area Level 3 areas across Australia. The data captured >22.4 million service records. Meta-analysis and meta-regression models estimated the pandemic interruption effect at the national level and delineated factors influencing these estimates. RESULTS: Compared with expected prepandemic trends, a 6.2% (95% CI=5.3%-7.2%) increase was noted for all young people in use of MBS mental health services in 2020. Substantial differences were found between age and sex subgroups, with a higher increase among females and young people ages 18-25. A decreasing trend was observed for males ages 18-25 (3.5% reduction, 95% CI=2.5%-4.5%). The interruption effect was strongly associated with socioeconomic status. Service uptake increased in areas of high socioeconomic status, with smaller or limited uptake in areas of low socioeconomic status. CONCLUSIONS: During 2020, young people's use of primary mental health services increased overall. However, increases were inequitably distributed and relatively low, compared with increases in population-level mental health burden. Policy makers should address barriers to primary care access for young people, particularly for young males and those from socioeconomically disadvantaged backgrounds.

Perceived need for neuropsychological assessment according to geographic location: A survey of Australian youth mental health clinicians.

Recent studies have shown that neuropsychological assessment is a scarce resource in youth mental health settings. The need for neuropsychological assessment might differ in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas due to characteristics inherent to these different regions. However, no formal studies have investigated this question. The aim of this research was to investigate whether need for neuropsychological assessment in youth mental health settings varies by geographic location. A cross-sectional online survey was completed by clinicians (N = 532) treating or assessing adolescents and young adults attending Australian primary care mental health (headspace) centers. Results indicated a similar need for neuropsychological assessment across the geographic areas. However, neuropsychological assessment was significantly less available to clients in outer regional, remote and very remote areas compared to major cities. Exploratory analyses further revealed that there were significantly fewer clinicians with a postgraduate degree and more clinicians with a bachelor degree in outer regional, remote and very remote areas than in major cities. Given the negative impact of cognitive impairments in youth with a mental illness, these findings reveal a necessity to enhance the availability and access to neuropsychological assessment in rural settings. Several plausible avenues to achieving increased access include increasing the funding available for this resource; providing nonmetropolitan clinicians with sufficient neuropsychological consultation, including rural training and rotations in neuropsychologists' postgraduate training; and exploring the use of tele-health in the provision of neuropsychological assessments in nonmetropolitan settings.

Modelling impact and cost-effectiveness of oral pre-exposure prophylaxis in 13 low-resource countries.

INTRODUCTION: Oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) provision is a priority intervention for high HIV prevalence settings and populations at substantial risk of HIV acquisition. This mathematical modelling analysis estimated the impact, cost and cost-effectiveness of scaling up oral PrEP in 13 countries. METHODS: We projected the impact and cost-effectiveness of oral PrEP between 2018 and 2030 using a combination of the Incidence Patterns Model and the Goals model. We created four PrEP rollout scenarios involving three priority populations-female sex workers (FSWs), serodiscordant couples (SDCs) and adolescent girls and young women (AGYW)-both with and without geographic prioritization. We applied the model to 13 countries (Eswatini, Ethiopia, Haiti, Kenya, Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe). The base case assumed achievement of the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS 90-90-90 antiretroviral therapy targets, 90% male circumcision coverage by 2020 and 90% efficacy and adherence levels for oral PrEP. RESULTS: In the scenarios we examined, oral PrEP averted 3% to 8% of HIV infections across the 13 countries between 2018 and 2030. For all but three countries, more than 50% of the HIV infections averted by oral PrEP in the scenarios we examined could be obtained by rollout to FSWs and SDCs alone. For several countries, expanding oral PrEP to include medium-risk AGYW in all regions greatly increased the impact. The efficiency and impact benefits of geographic prioritization of rollout to AGYW varied across countries. Variations in cost-effectiveness across countries reflected differences in HIV incidence and expected variations in unit cost. For most countries, rolling out oral PrEP to FSWs, SDCs and geographically prioritized AGYW was not projected to have a substantial impact on the supply chain for antiretroviral drugs. CONCLUSIONS: These modelling results can inform prioritization, target-setting and other decisions related to oral PrEP scale-up within combination prevention programmes. We caution against extensive use given limitations in cost data and implementation approaches. This analysis highlights some of the immediate challenges facing countries-for example, trade-offs between overall impact and cost-effectiveness-and emphasizes the need to improve data availability and risk assessment tools to help countries make informed decisions.

Thematic analysis of youth mental health providers' perceptions of neuropsychological assessment services.

AIM: A growing number of quantitative studies have investigated the utility of neuropsychological assessment in mental health settings. However, to the best of our knowledge, no previous study has qualitatively explored youth mental health providers' perceptions of neuropsychological assessment services. A more in-depth understanding of the perceived advantages and barriers associated with neuropsychological assessment in youth mental health settings is critical to better inform policy, practice and service uptake. Thus, the aim of this study was to qualitatively explore clinicians' views about neuropsychological assessments for youth with mental health concerns. METHODS: A single open-ended qualitative question, included as part of an anonymous cross-sectional online survey, was completed by clinicians (N = 206) treating or assessing adolescents and young adults within Australian primary care mental health centres (headspace). Responses were analysed using an inductive approach to thematic analysis. RESULTS: Five main themes were identified. Clinicians (a) identified barriers to accessing neuropsychological assessments (53%), (b) indicated a range of mixed outcomes following neuropsychological assessment (39%), (c) highlighted a need for neuropsychological assessments (22%), (d) reported a lack of awareness about this resource (10%) and (e) described practice issues associated with neuropsychological services (4%). CONCLUSION: This study uncovered perceived factors contributing to reduced access to neuropsychological assessment in Australian youth mental health settings. Given potential adverse outcomes resulting from this clinical service gap, efforts should be made to address factors contributing to poorer access, thereby mitigating the impact of poor access on the management of mental illness in youth. Several strategies, including funding neuropsychological assessments, are discussed.

Identifying attributes of care that may improve cost-effectiveness in the youth mental health service system.

OBJECTIVE: To identify attributes of youth mental health care for which there is evidence of potential cost-effectiveness. STUDY DESIGN: We performed a literature review of economic evaluations that examined both costs and outcomes for attributes of youth mental health care other than pharmacological or individual psychological therapies for full-threshold disorders. DATA SOURCES: We searched the United Kingdom National Health Service Economic Evaluations Database for evaluations published to the end of 2014; and MEDLINE, Google Scholar and the citation lists of relevant publications for peer-reviewed studies published in English since 1997. DATA SYNTHESIS: Forty economic evaluations met inclusion criteria. Psychosis was the mental disorder with the most developed economic evidence base, with good evidence of cost-effectiveness for first-episode psychosis services. There was a developing cost-effectiveness evidence base for other disorders. The most common attributes of the interventions examined in the included studies were the location of services, engagement and support of families, assessment, prevention, early intervention, group delivery format and information provision. We used our findings to formulate a list of attributes of youth mental health care that may be acceptable to young people and potentially cost-effective. CONCLUSION: There is at least suggestive cost-effectiveness evidence for a range of attributes of youth mental health care. Further economic research is needed to substantiate most cost-effectiveness findings and to improve targeting of care among young people. Future economic evaluations should examine costs from both societal and health care perspectives and incorporate evidence regarding young people's preferences.

Spectrum-Malaria: a user-friendly projection tool for health impact assessment and strategic planning by malaria control programmes in sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: Scale-up of malaria prevention and treatment needs to continue but national strategies and budget allocations are not always evidence-based. This article presents a new modelling tool projecting malaria infection, cases and deaths to support impact evaluation, target setting and strategic planning. METHODS: Nested in the Spectrum suite of programme planning tools, the model includes historic estimates of case incidence and deaths in groups aged up to 4, 5-14, and 15+ years, and prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum infection (PfPR) among children 2-9 years, for 43 sub-Saharan African countries and their 602 provinces, from the WHO and malaria atlas project. Impacts over 2016-2030 are projected for insecticide-treated nets (ITNs), indoor residual spraying (IRS), seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC), and effective management of uncomplicated cases (CMU) and severe cases (CMS), using statistical functions fitted to proportional burden reductions simulated in the P. falciparum dynamic transmission model OpenMalaria. RESULTS: In projections for Nigeria, ITNs, IRS, CMU, and CMS scale-up reduced health burdens in all age groups, with largest proportional and especially absolute reductions in children up to 4 years old. Impacts increased from 8 to 10 years following scale-up, reflecting dynamic effects. For scale-up of each intervention to 80% effective coverage, CMU had the largest impacts across all health outcomes, followed by ITNs and IRS; CMS and SMC conferred additional small but rapid mortality impacts. DISCUSSION: Spectrum-Malaria's user-friendly interface and intuitive display of baseline data and scenario projections holds promise to facilitate capacity building and policy dialogue in malaria programme prioritization. The module's linking to the OneHealth Tool for costing will support use of the software for strategic budget allocation. In settings with moderately low coverage levels, such as Nigeria, improving case management and achieving universal coverage with ITNs could achieve considerable burden reductions. Projections remain to be refined and validated with local expert input data and actual policy scenarios.

Stepwise expansion of evidence-based care is needed for mental health reform.

Mortality from mental illnesses is increasing and, because they frequently occur early in the life cycle, they are the largest source of disability and reduced economic productivity of all non-communicable diseases. Successful mental health reform can reduce the mortality, morbidity, growing welfare costs and losses in economic productivity caused by mental illness. The government has largely adopted the recommendations of the National Mental Health Commission focusing on early intervention and stepwise care and will implement a reform plan that involves devolving commissioning of federally funded mental health services to primary health networks, along with a greater emphasis on e-mental health. Stepwise expanded investment in and structural support (data collection, evaluation, model fidelity, workforce training) for evidence-based care that rectifies high levels of undertreatment are essential for these reforms to succeed. However, the reforms are currently constrained by a cost-containment policy framework that envisages no additional funding. The early intervention reform aim requires financing for the next stage of development of Australia's youth mental health system, rather than redirecting funds from existing evidence-based programs. People with complex, enduring mental disorders need more comprehensive care. In the context of the National Disability Insurance Scheme, there is a risk that these already seriously underserved patients may paradoxically receive a reduction in coverage. E-health has a key role to play at all stages of illness but must be integrated in a complementary way, rather than as a barrier to access. Research and evaluation are the keys to cost-effective, sustainable reform.

Western Juniper Management: Assessing Strategies for Improving Greater Sage-grouse Habitat and Rangeland Productivity.

Western juniper (Juniperus occidentalis subsp. occidentalis) range expansion into sagebrush steppe ecosystems has affected both native wildlife and economic livelihoods across western North America. The potential listing of the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) under the U.S. Endangered Species Act has spurred a decade of juniper removal efforts, yet limited research has evaluated program effectiveness. We used a multi-objective spatially explicit model to identify optimal juniper removal sites in Northeastern California across weighted goals for ecological (sage-grouse habitat) and economic (cattle forage production) benefits. We also extended the analysis through alternative case scenarios that tested the effects of coordination among federal agencies, budgetary constraints, and the use of fire as a juniper treatment method. We found that sage-grouse conservation and forage production goals are somewhat complementary, but the extent of complementary benefits strongly depends on spatial factors and management approaches. Certain management actions substantially increase achievable benefits, including agency coordination and the use of prescribed burns to remove juniper. Critically, our results indicate that juniper management strategies designed to increase cattle forage do not necessarily achieve measurable sage-grouse benefits, underscoring the need for program evaluation and monitoring.

Calculating when elective abdominal aortic aneurysm repair improves survival for individual patients: development of the Aneurysm Repair Decision Aid and economic evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair aims to prevent premature death from AAA rupture. Elective repair is currently recommended when AAA diameter reaches 5.5 cm (men) and 5.0 cm (women). Applying population-based indications may not be appropriate for individual patient decisions, as the optimal indication is likely to differ between patients based on age and comorbidities. OBJECTIVE: To develop an Aneurysm Repair Decision Aid (ARDA) to indicate when elective AAA repair optimises survival for individual patients and to assess the cost-effectiveness and associated uncertainty of elective repair at the aneurysm diameter recommended by the ARDA compared with current practice. DATA SOURCES: The UK Vascular Governance North West and National Vascular Database provided individual patient data to develop predictive models for perioperative mortality and survival. Data from published literature were used to model AAA growth and risk of rupture. The cost-effectiveness analysis used data from published literature and from local and national databases. METHODS: A combination of systematic review methods and clinical registries were used to provide data to populate models and inform the structure of the ARDA. Discrete event simulation (DES) was used to model the patient journey from diagnosis to death and synthesised data were used to estimate patient outcomes and costs for elective repair at alternative aneurysm diameters. Eight patient clinical scenarios (vignettes) were used as exemplars. The DES structure was validated by clinical and statistical experts. The economic evaluation estimated costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) from the NHS, social care provider and patient perspective over a lifetime horizon. Cost-effectiveness acceptability analyses and probabilistic sensitivity analyses explored uncertainty in the data and the value for money of ARDA-based decisions. The ARDA outcome measures include perioperative mortality risk, annual risk of rupture, 1-, 5- and 10-year survival, postoperative long-term survival, median life expectancy and predicted time to current threshold for aneurysm repair. The primary economic measure was the ICER using the QALY as the measure of health benefit. RESULTS: The analysis demonstrated it is feasible to build and run a complex clinical decision aid using DES. The model results support current guidelines for most vignettes but suggest that earlier repair may be effective in younger, fitter patients and ongoing surveillance may be effective in elderly patients with comorbidities. The model adds information to support decisions for patients with aneurysms outside current indications. The economic evaluation suggests that using the ARDA compared with current guidelines could be cost-effective but there is a high level of uncertainty. LIMITATIONS: Lack of high-quality long-term data to populate all sections of the model meant that there is high uncertainty about the long-term clinical and economic consequences of repair. Modelling assumptions were necessary and the developed survival models require external validation. CONCLUSIONS: The ARDA provides detailed information on the potential consequences of AAA repair or a decision not to repair that may be helpful to vascular surgeons and their patients in reaching informed decisions. Further research is required to reduce uncertainty about key data, including reintervention following AAA repair, and assess the acceptability and feasibility of the ARDA for use in routine clinical practice. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

A clinicopathologic study of 24 cases of systemic mastocytosis involving the gastrointestinal tract and assessment of mucosal mast cell density in irritable bowel syndrome and asymptomatic patients.

Counting mast cells in gastrointestinal (GI) mucosal biopsies is becoming an increasingly common practice. The primary reason for this exercise is to evaluate for possible involvement by systemic mastocytosis (SM). However, the features of mastocytosis in GI biopsies are not well described. In addition, recent studies have suggested that increased mast cells may be involved in the pathogenesis of some cases of diarrhea-predominant irritable bowel syndrome (IBS); the term "mastocytic enterocolitis" has been proposed for such cases. As the baseline mast cell density in colonic biopsies from normal patients has not been established in large cohorts, there is no widely accepted threshold for what constitutes increased mucosal mast cells. The aims of this study were (1) to determine the utility of GI biopsies for the diagnosis of SM, (2) to characterize the clinical, histologic, and immunohistochemical features of mastocytosis in the GI tract, (3) to determine mast cell density in normal colonic mucosa from a large cohort of asymptomatic patients, and (4) to compare these findings with those from patients with diarrhea-predominant IBS. Twenty-four patients with SM involving the GI tract, 100 asymptomatic patients, and 100 patients with IBS (the latter 2 groups with histologically normal colonic biopsies) were included. For the mastocytosis group, 107 biopsies (70 involved by mastocytosis; 67 mucosal, 3 liver) from 20 women and 4 men were evaluated (median age 59 y). The most commonly involved site was the colon (19 patients, 95%), followed by ileum (86%), duodenum (80%), and stomach (54%). In 16 cases (67%), the first diagnosis of SM was made on the basis of GI biopsies. Seventeen patients had documented cutaneous mastocytosis. Fifteen of 17 patients who underwent bone marrow biopsy had marrow involvement by SM. Eighteen patients had indolent disease, and 6 had aggressive disease (including all 3 with liver involvement). The most common GI symptom was diarrhea, followed by abdominal pain, nausea, weight loss, bloating, vomiting, or reflux. Liver disease presented with hepatomegaly and ascites. Endoscopic abnormalities (observed in 62%) included erythema, granularity, and nodules. Histologically, involved biopsies were characterized by infiltrates of ovoid to spindle-shaped mast cells in aggregates or sheets in the lamina propria, sometimes forming a confluent band underneath the surface epithelium; 25% of biopsies had only focal involvement (single aggregate). Prominent eosinophils were seen in 44% of involved colonic/ileal biopsies and 16% of duodenal biopsies. Mast cells were highlighted by diffuse membranous staining for KIT and CD25. In the nonmastocytosis groups, all biopsies contained singly dispersed mast cells with no aggregates. The mean highest mast cell counts (in a single high-power field) for asymptomatic patients and IBS patients were 26 (range, 11 to 55) and 30 (range, 13 to 59), respectively. In summary, GI (especially colonic) biopsies can establish a diagnosis of SM in patients with GI symptoms. GI involvement is usually subtle and is often associated with prominent eosinophils, which may obscure the mast cell infiltrate. KIT and CD25 are invaluable markers for the diagnosis. Mast cell density in colonic mucosa from asymptomatic patients is highly variable. Although patients with diarrhea-predominant IBS on average have mildly increased mast cells, the overlap in range with that of control patients is too great for this difference to be clinically useful. These findings argue against the utility of counting GI mucosal mast cell in patients with chronic diarrhea.