Collaborative Modeling to Compare Different Breast Cancer Screening Strategies: A Decision Analysis for the US Preventive Services Task Force.

Importance: The effects of breast cancer incidence changes and advances in screening and treatment on outcomes of different screening strategies are not well known. Objective: To estimate outcomes of various mammography screening strategies. Design, Setting, and Population: Comparison of outcomes using 6 Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) models and national data on breast cancer incidence, mammography performance, treatment effects, and other-cause mortality in US women without previous cancer diagnoses. Exposures: Thirty-six screening strategies with varying start ages (40, 45, 50 years) and stop ages (74, 79 years) with digital mammography or digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) annually, biennially, or a combination of intervals. Strategies were evaluated for all women and for Black women, assuming 100% screening adherence and "real-world" treatment. Main Outcomes and Measures: Estimated lifetime benefits (breast cancer deaths averted, percent reduction in breast cancer mortality, life-years gained), harms (false-positive recalls, benign biopsies, overdiagnosis), and number of mammograms per 1000 women. Results: Biennial screening with DBT starting at age 40, 45, or 50 years until age 74 years averted a median of 8.2, 7.5, or 6.7 breast cancer deaths per 1000 women screened, respectively, vs no screening. Biennial DBT screening at age 40 to 74 years (vs no screening) was associated with a 30.0% breast cancer mortality reduction, 1376 false-positive recalls, and 14 overdiagnosed cases per 1000 women screened. Digital mammography screening benefits were similar to those for DBT but had more false-positive recalls. Annual screening increased benefits but resulted in more false-positive recalls and overdiagnosed cases. Benefit-to-harm ratios of continuing screening until age 79 years were similar or superior to stopping at age 74. In all strategies, women with higher-than-average breast cancer risk, higher breast density, and lower comorbidity level experienced greater screening benefits than other groups. Annual screening of Black women from age 40 to 49 years with biennial screening thereafter reduced breast cancer mortality disparities while maintaining similar benefit-to-harm trade-offs as for all women. Conclusions: This modeling analysis suggests that biennial mammography screening starting at age 40 years reduces breast cancer mortality and increases life-years gained per mammogram. More intensive screening for women with greater risk of breast cancer diagnosis or death can maintain similar benefit-to-harm trade-offs and reduce mortality disparities.

Population simulation modeling of disparities in US breast cancer mortality.

BACKGROUND: Populations of African American or Black women have persistently higher breast cancer mortality than the overall US population, despite having slightly lower age-adjusted incidence. METHODS: Three Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network simulation teams modeled cancer mortality disparities between Black female populations and the overall US population. Model inputs used racial group-specific data from clinical trials, national registries, nationally representative surveys, and observational studies. Analyses began with cancer mortality in the overall population and sequentially replaced parameters for Black populations to quantify the percentage of modeled breast cancer morality disparities attributable to differences in demographics, incidence, access to screening and treatment, and variation in tumor biology and response to therapy. RESULTS: Results were similar across the 3 models. In 2019, racial differences in incidence and competing mortality accounted for a net ‒1% of mortality disparities, while tumor subtype and stage distributions accounted for a mean of 20% (range across models = 13%-24%), and screening accounted for a mean of 3% (range = 3%-4%) of the modeled mortality disparities. Treatment parameters accounted for the majority of modeled mortality disparities: mean = 17% (range = 16%-19%) for treatment initiation and mean = 61% (range = 57%-63%) for real-world effectiveness. CONCLUSION: Our model results suggest that changes in policies that target improvements in treatment access could increase breast cancer equity. The findings also highlight that efforts must extend beyond policies targeting equity in treatment initiation to include high-quality treatment completion. This research will facilitate future modeling to test the effects of different specific policy changes on mortality disparities.

Change in alcohol consumption during the Covid-19 pandemic and associations with mental health and financial hardship: results from a survey of Wisconsin patients with cancer.

PURPOSE: Alcohol consumption increases health risks for patients with cancer. The Covid-19 pandemic may have affected drinking habits for these individuals. We surveyed patients with cancer to examine whether changes in drinking habits were related to mental health or financial effects of the pandemic. METHODS: From October 2020 to April 2021, adult patients (age 18-80 years at diagnosis) treated for cancer in southcentral Wisconsin were invited to complete a survey. Age-adjusted percentages for history of anxiety or depression, emotional distress, and financial impacts of Covid-19 overall and by change in alcohol consumption (non-drinker, stable, decreased, or increased) were obtained via logistic regression. RESULTS: In total, 1,875 patients were included in the analysis (median age 64, range 19-87 years), including 9% who increased and 23% who decreased drinking. Compared to stable drinkers (32% of sample), a higher proportion of participants who increased drinking alcohol also reported anxiety or depression (45% vs. 26%), moderate to severe emotional distress (61% vs. 37%) and viewing Covid-19 as a threat to their community (67% vs. 55%). Decreased (vs. stable) drinking was associated with higher prevalence of depression or anxiety diagnosis, emotional distress, and negative financial impacts of the pandemic. Compared to non-drinkers (36% of sample), participants who increased drinking were more likely to report emotional distress (61% vs. 48%). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with cancer from Wisconsin who changed their alcohol consumption during the Covid-19 pandemic were more likely to report poor mental health including anxiety, depression, and emotional distress than persons whose alcohol consumption was stable. IMPLICATIONS FOR CANCER SURVIVORS: Clinicians working with cancer survivors should be aware of the link between poor mental health and increased alcohol consumption and be prepared to offer guidance or referrals to counseling, as needed.

Breast Cancer Screening Among Childhood Cancer Survivors Treated Without Chest Radiation: Clinical Benefits and Cost-Effectiveness.

BACKGROUND: Early initiation of breast cancer screening is recommended for high-risk women, including survivors of childhood cancer treated with chest radiation. Recent studies suggest that female survivors of childhood leukemia or sarcoma treated without chest radiation are also at elevated early onset breast cancer risk. However, the potential clinical benefits and cost-effectiveness of early breast cancer screening among these women are uncertain. METHODS: Using data from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study, we adapted 2 Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network simulation models to reflect the elevated risks of breast cancer and competing mortality among leukemia and sarcoma survivors. Costs and utility weights were based on published studies and databases. Outcomes included breast cancer deaths averted, false-positive screening results, benign biopsies, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. RESULTS: In the absence of screening, the lifetime risk of dying from breast cancer among survivors was 6.8% to 7.0% across models. Early initiation of annual mammography with breast magnetic resonance imaging screening between ages 25 and 40 years would avert 52.6% to 64.3% of breast cancer deaths. When costs and quality-of-life impacts were considered, screening starting at age 40 years was the only strategy with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio below the $100 000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained cost-effectiveness threshold ($27 680 to $44 380 per QALY gained across models). CONCLUSIONS: Among survivors of childhood leukemia or sarcoma, early initiation of breast cancer screening at age 40 years may reduce breast cancer deaths by half and is cost-effective. These findings could help inform screening guidelines for survivors treated without chest radiation.

Clinical Benefits, Harms, and Cost-Effectiveness of Breast Cancer Screening for Survivors of Childhood Cancer Treated With Chest Radiation : A Comparative Modeling Study.

BACKGROUND: Surveillance with annual mammography and breast magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is recommended for female survivors of childhood cancer treated with chest radiation, yet benefits, harms, and costs are uncertain. OBJECTIVE: To compare the benefits, harms, and cost-effectiveness of breast cancer screening strategies in childhood cancer survivors. DESIGN: Collaborative simulation modeling using 2 Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network breast cancer models. DATA SOURCES: Childhood Cancer Survivor Study and published data. TARGET POPULATION: Women aged 20 years with a history of chest radiotherapy. TIME HORIZON: Lifetime. PERSPECTIVE: Payer. INTERVENTION: Annual MRI with or without mammography, starting at age 25, 30, or 35 years. OUTCOME MEASURES: Breast cancer deaths averted, false-positive screening results, benign biopsy results, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS: Lifetime breast cancer mortality risk without screening was 10% to 11% across models. Compared with no screening, starting at age 25 years, annual mammography with MRI averted the most deaths (56% to 71%) and annual MRI (without mammography) averted 56% to 62%. Both strategies had the most screening tests, false-positive screening results, and benign biopsy results. For an ICER threshold of less than $100 000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, screening beginning at age 30 years was preferred. RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: Assuming lower screening performance, the benefit of adding mammography to MRI increased in both models, although the conclusions about preferred starting age remained unchanged. LIMITATION: Elevated breast cancer risk was based on survivors diagnosed with childhood cancer between 1970 and 1986. CONCLUSION: Early initiation (at ages 25 to 30 years) of annual breast cancer screening with MRI, with or without mammography, might reduce breast cancer mortality by half or more in survivors of childhood cancer. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: American Cancer Society and National Institutes of Health.

Long-Term Outcomes and Cost-Effectiveness of Breast Cancer Screening With Digital Breast Tomosynthesis in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) is increasingly being used for routine breast cancer screening. We projected the long-term impact and cost-effectiveness of DBT compared to conventional digital mammography (DM) for breast cancer screening in the United States. METHODS: Three Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network breast cancer models simulated US women ages 40 years and older undergoing breast cancer screening with either DBT or DM starting in 2011 and continuing for the lifetime of the cohort. Screening performance estimates were based on observational data; in an alternative scenario, we assumed 4% higher sensitivity for DBT. Analyses used federal payer perspective; costs and utilities were discounted at 3% annually. Outcomes included breast cancer deaths, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), false-positive examinations, costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). RESULTS: Compared to DM, DBT screening resulted in a slight reduction in breast cancer deaths (range across models 0-0.21 per 1000 women), small increase in QALYs (1.97-3.27 per 1000 women), and a 24-28% reduction in false-positive exams (237-268 per 1000 women) relative to DM. ICERs ranged from $195 026 to $270 135 per QALY for DBT relative to DM. When assuming 4% higher DBT sensitivity, ICERs decreased to $130 533-$156 624 per QALY. ICERs were sensitive to DBT costs, decreasing to $78 731 to $168 883 and $52 918 to $118 048 when the additional cost of DBT was reduced to $36 and $26 (from baseline of $56), respectively. CONCLUSION: DBT reduces false-positive exams while achieving similar or slightly improved health benefits. At current reimbursement rates, the additional costs of DBT screening are likely high relative to the benefits gained; however, DBT could be cost-effective at lower screening costs.

Variation in coordination of care reported by breast cancer patients according to health literacy.

BACKGROUND: Health literacy is the ability to perform basic reading and numerical tasks to function in the healthcare environment. The purpose of this study is to describe how health literacy is related to perceived coordination of care reported by breast cancer patients. METHODS: Data were retrieved from the Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute-sponsored "Share Thoughts on Breast Cancer" Study including demographic factors, perceived care coordination and responsiveness of care, and self-reported health literacy obtained from a mailed survey completed by 62% of eligible breast cancer survivors (N = 1221). Multivariable analysis of variance was used to characterize the association between presence of a single healthcare professional that coordinated care ("care coordinator") and perceived care coordination, stratified by health literacy level. RESULTS: Health literacy was classified as low in 24% of patients, medium in 34%, and high in 42%. Women with high health literacy scores were more likely to report non-Hispanic white race/ethnicity, private insurance, higher education and income, and fewer comorbidities (all p < 0.001). The presence of a care coordinator was associated with 17.1% higher perceived care coordination scores among women with low health literacy when compared to those without a care coordinator, whereas a coordinator modestly improved perceived care coordination among breast cancer survivors with medium (6.9%) and high (6.2%) health literacy. CONCLUSION: The use of a single designated care coordinator may have a strong influence on care coordination in patients with lower levels of health literacy.

Comparative effectiveness of incorporating a hypothetical DCIS prognostic marker into breast cancer screening.

PURPOSE: Due to limitations in the ability to identify non-progressive disease, ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) is usually managed similarly to localized invasive breast cancer. We used simulation modeling to evaluate the potential impact of a hypothetical test that identifies non-progressive DCIS. METHODS: A discrete-event model simulated a cohort of U.S. women undergoing digital screening mammography. All women diagnosed with DCIS underwent the hypothetical DCIS prognostic test. Women with test results indicating progressive DCIS received standard breast cancer treatment and a decrement to quality of life corresponding to the treatment. If the DCIS test indicated non-progressive DCIS, no treatment was received and women continued routine annual surveillance mammography. A range of test performance characteristics and prevalence of non-progressive disease were simulated. Analysis compared discounted quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and costs for test scenarios to base-case scenarios without the test. RESULTS: Compared to the base case, a perfect prognostic test resulted in a 40% decrease in treatment costs, from $13,321 to $8005 USD per DCIS case. A perfect test produced 0.04 additional QALYs (16 days) for women diagnosed with DCIS, added to the base case of 5.88 QALYs per DCIS case. The results were sensitive to the performance characteristics of the prognostic test, the proportion of DCIS cases that were non-progressive in the model, and the frequency of mammography screening in the population. CONCLUSION: A prognostic test that identifies non-progressive DCIS would substantially reduce treatment costs but result in only modest improvements in quality of life when averaged over all DCIS cases.

Tailoring Breast Cancer Screening Intervals by Breast Density and Risk for Women Aged 50 Years or Older: Collaborative Modeling of Screening Outcomes.

Background: Biennial screening is generally recommended for average-risk women aged 50 to 74 years, but tailored screening may provide greater benefits. Objective: To estimate outcomes for various screening intervals after age 50 years based on breast density and risk for breast cancer. Design: Collaborative simulation modeling using national incidence, breast density, and screening performance data. Setting: United States. Patients: Women aged 50 years or older with various combinations of breast density and relative risk (RR) of 1.0, 1.3, 2.0, or 4.0. Intervention: Annual, biennial, or triennial digital mammography screening from ages 50 to 74 years (vs. no screening) and ages 65 to 74 years (vs. biennial digital mammography from ages 50 to 64 years). Measurements: Lifetime breast cancer deaths, life expectancy and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), false-positive mammograms, benign biopsy results, overdiagnosis, cost-effectiveness, and ratio of false-positive results to breast cancer deaths averted. Results: Screening benefits and overdiagnosis increase with breast density and RR. False-positive mammograms and benign results on biopsy decrease with increasing risk. Among women with fatty breasts or scattered fibroglandular density and an RR of 1.0 or 1.3, breast cancer deaths averted were similar for triennial versus biennial screening for both age groups (50 to 74 years, median of 3.4 to 5.1 vs. 4.1 to 6.5 deaths averted; 65 to 74 years, median of 1.5 to 2.1 vs. 1.8 to 2.6 deaths averted). Breast cancer deaths averted increased with annual versus biennial screening for women aged 50 to 74 years at all levels of breast density and an RR of 4.0, and those aged 65 to 74 years with heterogeneously or extremely dense breasts and an RR of 4.0. However, harms were almost 2-fold higher. Triennial screening for the average-risk subgroup and annual screening for the highest-risk subgroup cost less than $100 000 per QALY gained. Limitation: Models did not consider women younger than 50 years, those with an RR less than 1, or other imaging methods. Conclusion: Average-risk women with low breast density undergoing triennial screening and higher-risk women with high breast density receiving annual screening will maintain a similar or better balance of benefits and harms than average-risk women receiving biennial screening. Primary Funding Source: National Cancer Institute.

Preconception mental health predicts pregnancy complications and adverse birth outcomes: a national population-based study.

Pregnancy complications and poor birth outcomes can affect the survival and long-term health of children. The preconception period represents an opportunity to intervene and improve outcomes; however little is known about women's mental health prior to pregnancy as a predictor of such outcomes. We sought to determine if and to what extent women's preconception mental health status impacted subsequent pregnancy complications, non-live birth, and birth weight using a nationally representative, population-based sample. We used pooled 1996-2006 data from the nationally-representative Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS). Poor preconception mental health was defined as women's global mental health rating of "fair" or "poor" before conception. Logistic regression was used to assess the association between preconception mental health and pregnancy complications, non-live birth, and having a low birth weight baby within the follow up period. Poor preconception mental health was associated with increased odds of experiencing any pregnancy complication (AOR 1.40, 95% CI: 1.02-1.92), having a non-live birth (AOR 1.48, 95% CI: 0.96-2.27), and having a low birth weight baby (AOR 1.99, 95% CI: 1.00-3.98), all controlling for maternal age, race/ethnicity, marital status, education, health insurance status, income, and number of children in the household. Significant racial and ethnic disparities exist for pregnancy complications and non-live births, but not for low birth weight. Women's preconception mental health is a modifiable risk factor that stands to reduce the incidence of adverse pregnancy complications and birth outcomes.

Psychological distress and trends in healthcare expenditures and outpatient healthcare.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether trends in psychological distress exist in the United States and whether trends in healthcare expenditures and outpatient visits were associated with psychological distress. STUDY DESIGN: Sequential cross-sectional study of nationally representative data. METHODS: We examined data from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) from 1997 to 2004 linked to 2 years of subsequent Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) data. Psychological distress was measured in the NHIS using the K6, a 6-item scale of the Kessler Psychological Distress Scale, which we classified as no/low, mild-moderate, or severe. We examined subsequent annualized total, outpatient, and office-based expenditures, and outpatient and office-based visits from MEPS. RESULTS: Psychological distress remained stable from 1997 to 2004. There were upward trends in overall healthcare expenditures (P <.001) and outpatient expenditures (P <.001), but not outpatient visits. Overall healthcare expenditures, outpatient expenditures, and outpatient visits significantly increased as psychological distress increased from no/low to mild-moderate to severe. The interaction between psychological distress strata and year was not significant for expenditures or for visits. CONCLUSIONS: The upward trend in total and outpatient healthcare expenditures in the United States appears unrelated to psychological distress, although healthcare expenditures are consistently higher among those with greater psychological distress. Future work will explore the impact of treatment on costs and stability of the nation's mental health over time.

Healthcare-Related Financial Burden among Families in the U.S.: The Role of Childhood Activity Limitations and Income.

This study examined the impact of childhood activity limitations on family financial burden in the U.S. We used ten complete panels (1996-2006) of the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) to evaluate the burden of out-of-pocket healthcare expenditures for 17,857 families with children aged 0-17 years. Multivariate generalized linear models were used to examine the relationship between childhood activity limitation status and both absolute and relative financial burden. Families of children with limitations had higher absolute out-of-pocket healthcare expenditures than families of children without limitations ($594.36 higher; p<0.05), and were 54% more likely to experience relative burden (p<0.05). Substantial socioeconomic disparities in financial burden were observed. Policies are needed to enable these families to access appropriate and affordable healthcare services.

Socioeconomic status and survival after an invasive breast cancer diagnosis.

BACKGROUND: Women who live in geographic areas with high poverty rates and low levels of education experience poorer survival after a breast cancer diagnosis than women who live in communities with indicators of high socioeconomic status (SES). However, very few studies have examined individual-level SES in relation to breast cancer survival or have assessed the contextual role of community-level SES independent of individual-level SES. METHODS: The authors of this report examined both individual-level and community-level SES in relation to breast cancer survival in a population-based cohort of women ages 20 to 69 years who were diagnosed with breast cancer in Wisconsin between 1995 and 2003 (N = 5820). RESULTS: Compared with college graduates, women who had no education beyond high school were 1.39 times more likely (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.10-1.76) to die from breast cancer. Women who had household incomes <2.5 times the poverty level were 1.46 times more likely (95% CI, 1.10-1.92) to die from breast cancer than women who had household incomes ≥5 times the poverty level. Adjusting the analysis for use of screening mammography, disease stage at diagnosis, and lifestyle factors eliminated the disparity by income, but the disparity by education persisted (hazard ratio [HR], 1.27; 95% CI, 0.99-1.61). In multilevel analyses, low community-level education was associated with increased breast cancer mortality even after adjusting for individual-level SES (HR, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.09-2.27 for ≥20% vs <10% of adults without a high school degree). CONCLUSIONS: The current results indicated that screening and early detection explain some of the disparity according to SES, but further research will be needed to understand the additional ways in which individual-level and community-level education are associated with survival.

Socioeconomic risk factors for breast cancer: distinguishing individual- and community-level effects.

BACKGROUND: Women are at higher risk of breast cancer if they have higher socioeconomic status (SES) or live in higher SES or urban communities. We examined whether women living in such communities remained at greater risk of breast cancer after controlling for individual education and other known individual-level risk factors. METHODS: Data were from a population-based, breast cancer case-control study conducted in Wisconsin from 1988 to 1995 (n = 14,667). Data on community SES and urbanicity come from the 1990 census, measured at the census tract and zip code levels. We evaluated relationships between individual- and community-level variables and breast cancer risk using multilevel logistic regression models with random community intercepts. RESULTS: After controlling for individual education and other individual-level risk factors (age, mammography use, family history of breast cancer, parity, age at first birth, alcohol intake, body mass index, hormone replacement use, oral contraceptive use, and menopausal status), women living in the highest SES communities had greater odds of having breast cancer than women living in the lowest SES communities (1.20; 95% confidence interval = 1.05-1.37). Similarly, the odds were greater for women in urban versus rural communities (1.17; 1.06-1.28). CONCLUSIONS: Community SES and urbanicity are apparently not simply proxies for individual SES. Future research should examine why living in such communities itself is associated with greater risk of breast cancer.