The economics impacts of long-run droughts: Challenges, gaps, and way forward.

Quantifying drought's economic impacts has been key for decision-making to build future strategies and improve the development and implementation of proactive plans. However, climate change is changing drought frequency, intensity, and durability. These changes imply modifications of their economic impact, as longer droughts result in greater cumulative economic losses for water users. Though the longer the drought lasts, other factors also play a crucial role in its economic outcomes, such as Infrastructure capacity (IC), the Amount of Water in Storage (AWS) in reservoirs and aquifers, and short- and long-term responses to it. This study proposes and applies an analytical framework for the economic assessment of long-run droughts, assessing and explaining central Chile megadrought economic effects through the factors that begin to influence the economic impact level in this setting. High levels of both IC and the AWS, as well as short- and long-term responses of water users, allow for high resilience to long-run droughts, tolerating extraordinary water disruption in its society with relatively low total economic impacts. Despite this adaptability, long-term droughts bring places to a water-critical threshold where long-term adaptation strategies may be less flexible than short-term strategies, escalating the adverse economic effects. This fact suggests that the economic evaluation of megadrought needs to focus on future tipping points (substantial water scarcity). The tipping point depends on the IC, how water users manage the AWS, and adaptation strategies. Establishing the tipping point should be a priority for future interdisciplinary research.

Development and Evolution of a Diagnostic and Oral Pathology Service in a Southeast Brazilian State / Desenvolvimento e Evolução de um Serviço de Diagnóstico e de Patologia Bucal em um Estado do Sudeste Brasileiro / Desarrollo y Evolución de un Servicio de Diagnóstico y Patología Oral en un Estado del Sudeste Brasileño

Introduction: Oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) is one of the most frequent cancers whose main causes are preventable because oral cavity is easily accessible for examination. OSCC involves many steps from the diagnosis until treatment which can result in late diagnosis and worst prognosis. Objective: Development and evolution of a Stomatology and Oral Pathology Service at the Federal University of Alfenas addressing early diagnosis and management of oral lesions. Method: Retrospective study developed with the files from 1998 to 2019. Data from all the cases diagnosed as oral malignancies were collected and the demographical, clinical, and microscope diagnosis were included. Results: 270 (84.64%) OSCC were found among 8,952 histopathological diagnoses. The patients age ranged from 24 to 94 years (mean 59.7±13.1 years), and more frequent in the sixth (32.3%) and seventh (26%) decades of life. Men were 2.5 times more affected than women. Most of patients were Caucasian (74.8%), and users of tobacco and alcohol. Over the years, there was an increase in the number of cases diagnosed and expansion of the area covered by the Service. Conclusion: The Dental Clinic (Stomatology) and Oral Pathology Laboratory has been playing an important role for the establishment and improvement of the healthcare system to the local population, mainly in rural áreas

Introdução: O carcinoma de células escamosas (CEC) de boca está entre os cânceres mais frequentes. Suas principais causas são evitáveis, pois a cavidade oral é uma área de fácil acesso para exame. No entanto, desde o estabelecimento do diagnóstico até o tratamento final dos pacientes, o CEC envolve muitas etapas e pode resultar em diagnóstico tardio e, portanto, em pior prognóstico para os pacientes. Objetivo: Apresentar o desenvolvimento e a evolução de um Serviço de Estomatologia e Patologia Oral da Universidade Federal de Alfenas, que tem como foco o diagnóstico precoce e o tratamento de lesões bucais. Método: Estudo retrospectivo com os prontuários de 1998 a 2019. Foram coletados dados de todos os casos diagnosticados como malignidades orais e incluídos os diagnósticos demográficos, clínicos e microscópicos. Resultados: Entre 8.952 diagnósticos histopatológicos realizados, 270 (84,64%) eram CCE. A idade dos pacientes variou de 24 a 94 anos (média 59,7±13,1 anos), sendo mais frequente na sexta (32,3%) e sétima (26%) décadas de vida. Os homens foram 2,5 vezes mais afetados do que as mulheres. A maioria dos pacientes era branca (74,8%) e o uso de tabaco e álcool, frequente. Ao longo dos anos, houve um aumento do número de casos diagnosticados, bem como uma ampliação da área de cobertura do Serviço. Conclusão: O Serviço de Estomatologia e Patologia Oral tem desempenhado um papel importante na implantação e melhoria do sistema de saúde da população local, principalmente nas Regiões interioranas e em áreas rurais

Introducción: El carcinoma de células escamosas (CCE) de boca se encuentra entre los cánceres más frecuentes. Sus principales causas se pueden prevenir ya que la cavidad bucal es un área de fácil acceso para su examen. Sin embargo, desde el establecimiento del diagnóstico hasta el tratamiento final de los pacientes, la CEC implica muchos pasos y puede resultar en un diagnóstico tardío y, por lo tanto, un peor pronóstico para los pacientes. Objetivo: Presentar el desarrollo y evolución de un Servicio de Estomatología y Patología Bucal de la Universidad Federal de Alfenas que se enfoca en el diagnóstico y tratamiento precoz de las lesiones bucales. Método: Estudio retrospectivo con historias clínicas de 1998 a 2019. Se recolectaron datos de todos los casos diagnosticados como neoplasias bucales, incluyendo diagnósticos demográficos, clínicos y microscópicos. Resultados: De los 8.952 diagnósticos histopatológicos realizados, 270 (84,64%) fueron CCE. La edad de los pacientes osciló entre 24 y 94 años (media 59,7±13,1 años), siendo más frecuente en la sexta (32,3%) y séptima (26%) décadas de la vida. Los hombres se vieron 2,5 veces más afectados que las mujeres. La mayoría de los pacientes eran de raza blanca (74,8%) y el consumo de tabaco y alcohol era frecuente. A lo largo de los años, ha habido un aumento en el número de casos diagnosticados, así como una expansión del área de cobertura del Servicio. Conclusión: El Servicio de Estomatología y Patología Bucal ha jugado un papel importante en la implementación y mejora del sistema de salud para la población local, especialmente en las Regiones del interior y áreas rurales

Early Determinants of Work Disability in an International Perspective.

This study explores the interrelated roles of health and welfare state policies in the decision to take up disability insurance (DI) benefits due to work disability (WD), defined as the (partial) inability to engage in gainful employment as a result of physical or mental illness. We exploit the large international variation of health, self-reported WD, and the uptake of DI benefits in the United States and Europe using a harmonized data set with life history information assembled from SHARE, ELSA, and HRS. We find that the mismatch between WD and DI benefit receipt varies greatly across countries. Objective health explains a substantial share of the within-country variation in DI, but this is not the case for the variation across countries. Rather, most of the variation between countries and the mismatches are explained by differences in DI policies.

DiPALS: Diaphragm Pacing in patients with Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis - a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a neurodegenerative disease resulting in death, usually from respiratory failure, within 2-3 years of symptom onset. Non-invasive ventilation (NIV) is a treatment that when given to patients in respiratory failure leads to improved survival and quality of life. Diaphragm pacing (DP), using the NeuRx/4(®) diaphragm pacing system (DPS)™ (Synapse Biomedical, Oberlin, OH, USA), is a new technique that may offer additional or alternative benefits to patients with ALS who are in respiratory failure. OBJECTIVE: The Diaphragm Pacing in patients with Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (DiPALS) trial evaluated the effect of DP on survival over the study duration in patients with ALS with respiratory failure. DESIGN: The DiPALS trial was a multicentre, parallel-group, open-label, randomised controlled trial incorporating health economic analyses and a qualitative longitudinal substudy. PARTICIPANTS: Eligible participants had a diagnosis of ALS (ALS laboratory-supported probable, clinically probable or clinically definite according to the World Federation of Neurology revised El Escorial criteria), had been stabilised on riluzole for 30 days, were aged ≥ 18 years and were in respiratory failure. We planned to recruit 108 patients from seven UK-based specialist ALS or respiratory centres. Allocation was performed using 1 : 1 non-deterministic minimisation. INTERVENTIONS: Participants were randomised to either standard care (NIV alone) or standard care (NIV) plus DP using the NeuRX/4 DPS. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was overall survival, defined as the time from randomisation to death from any cause. Secondary outcomes were patient quality of life [assessed by European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions, three levels (EQ-5D-3L), Short Form questionnaire-36 items and Sleep Apnoea Quality of Life Index questionnaire]; carer quality of life (EQ-5D-3L and Caregiver Burden Inventory); cost-utility analysis and health-care resource use; tolerability and adverse events. Acceptability and attitudes to DP were assessed in a qualitative substudy. RESULTS: In total, 74 participants were randomised into the trial and analysed, 37 participants to NIV plus pacing and 37 to standard care, before the Data Monitoring and Ethics Committee advised initial suspension of recruitment (December 2013) and subsequent discontinuation of pacing (on safety grounds) in all patients (June 2014). Follow-up assessments continued until the planned end of the study in December 2014. The median survival (interquartile range) was 22.5 months (lower quartile 11.8 months; upper quartile not reached) in the NIV arm and 11.0 months (6.7 to 17.0 months) in the NIV plus pacing arm, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 2.27 (95% confidence interval 1.22 to 4.25; p = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Diaphragmatic pacing should not be used as a routine treatment for patients with ALS in respiratory failure. FUTURE WORK: It may be that certain population subgroups benefit from DP. We are unable to explain the mechanism behind the excess mortality in the pacing arm, something the small trial size cannot help address. Future research should investigate the mechanism by which harm or benefit occurs further. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN53817913. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 20, No. 45. See the HTA programme website for further project information. Additional funding was provided by the Motor Neurone Disease Association of England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Critical Uncertainties and Gaps in the Environmental- and Social-Impact Assessment of the Proposed Interoceanic Canal through Nicaragua.

The proposed interoceanic canal will connect the Caribbean Sea with the Pacific Ocean, traversing Lake Nicaragua, the major freshwater reservoir in Central America. If completed, the canal would be the largest infrastructure-related excavation project on Earth. In November 2015, the Nicaraguan government approved an environmental and social impact assessment (ESIA) for the canal. A group of international experts participated in a workshop organized by the Academy of Sciences of Nicaragua to review this ESIA. The group concluded that the ESIA does not meet international standards; essential information is lacking regarding the potential impacts on the lake, freshwater and marine environments, and biodiversity. The ESIA presents an inadequate assessment of natural hazards and socioeconomic disruptions. The panel recommends that work on the canal project be suspended until an appropriate ESIA is completed. The project should be resumed only if it is demonstrated to be economically feasible, environmentally acceptable, and socially beneficial.

Wound Healing of the Laterally Positioned Flap: A Histomorphometric Assessment.

The aim of this study was to histomorphometrically assess the soft tissue anatomy in single gingival recessions (GR) treated with a laterally positioned flap (LPF). Five patients presenting maxillary first molars with GR to the apex of the buccal surface of the mesial-buccal root were invited to take part. The LPF-treated roots were removed en bloc (the root and the soft tissue covering the treated GR) 3 to 4 months postoperatively. Photomicrographs of Mallory trichrome stain sections were taken to allow reassessment of the specimens regarding the longitudinal dimensions of the crevicular/sulcular and junctional epithelia. The use of LPF resulted in new attachment with formation of crevicular epithelium, long junctional epithelium, and some connective tissue, re-establishing the normal anatomical characteristics of the soft tissues covering the previously exposed root.

Contingent valuation scenarios for chronic illnesses: the case of childhood asthma.

OBJECTIVES: We use a contingent valuation (CV) study of childhood asthma to discuss a central issue in designing CV studies of chronic illness-the need for a detailed, realistic scenario that minimizes confounding factors-and show how to address this issue. We apply our methodology to estimate households' willingness to pay (WTP) for reductions in asthma morbidity. METHODS: By using a combination of focus groups, revealed preference surveys, and epidemiological surveys, we gathered information on health status, attitudes, and beliefs regarding asthma, risk-averting behaviors, perceptions of these behaviors, and household socioeconomic characteristics. We used this information to design a CV survey that we extensively tested for validity. In the survey, we elicited participants' WTP for a hypothetical device that would reduce symptom-days by improving asthma management; these data enabled us to estimate household WTP by using a variety of econometric models. RESULTS: Our analysis of households with children with asthma yielded the following conclusions: the scenario should address both physical asthma symptoms and the psychosocial stress of managing a chronic illness; the survey should measure household perceptions of the burden of asthma in addition to objective measures such as symptom-days; and the scenario should not involve substantial behavioral changes or a new medication, to avoid confounding household preferences with unrelated attributes of the scenario. Our primary models estimated mean household WTP for a 50% reduction in symptom-days (and accompanying reductions in psychosocial stress) at $56.48 to $64.84 per month. CONCLUSIONS: Our methodology can be used to inform CV studies of chronic illness. Our WTP estimates can help regulatory agencies assess a wide range of policies that affect the incidence or severity of asthma.

Evaluation of preoperative risk factors and complication rates in cosmetic breast surgery.

To assess the relationships between body mass index, smoking, and diabetes and postoperative complications after cosmetic breast surgery, based on patient claims made to CosmetAssure, a program which provides coverage for treatment of significant complications, which might not be reimbursed by patients' health insurance carriers. Complication rates of cosmetic breast operations were reviewed from 13,475 consecutive patients between April 1, 2008 and March 31, 2009. Correlations between complication rates and risk factors of body mass index > or =30, smoking, and diabetes were analyzed. Because this insurance program reimburses patients for costs associated with the treatment of postsurgical complications, physicians are incentivized to report significant complications. A "significant" complication is defined as a postsurgical problem, occurring within 30 days of the procedure that requires admission to a hospital, emergency room, or surgery center. Minor complications that were treated in the outpatient setting are not included, as their treatment did not generate an insurance claim. According to patient claims data between April 1, 2008 and March 31, 2009, the overall complication rate for cosmetic breast surgery was 1.8%. Obese patients (body mass index > or = 30) undergoing breast augmentation and augmentation mastopexy demonstrated higher complication rates than nonobese patients. Patients with diabetes undergoing augmentation mastopexy experienced higher complication rates than nondiabetics. Data collection is ongoing, and as the number of cases increases (approximately 1300 new cosmetic breast surgeries per month), multiple other trends in this study will likely achieve statistical significance. Analysis of CosmetAssure data can accurately and objectively track the rate of significant postoperative complications secondary to cosmetic surgical procedures. As the number of risk factors increase, the risk of complications increases. Cosmetic breast surgery is extremely safe, with low infection and overall complication rates. Plastic surgeons can further decrease complications through careful patient selection.

Emotions and decision rules in discrete choice experiments for valuing health care programmes for the elderly.

The evaluation of health care programmes is commonly approached with stated preference methods such as contingent valuation or discrete choice experiments. These methods provide useful information for policy decisions involving health regulations and infrastructures for health care. However, econometric modelling of these data usually relies on a number of maintained assumptions, such as the use of the compensatory or random utility maximization rule. On the other hand, health policy issues can raise emotional concerns among individuals, which might induce other types of choice behaviour. In this paper we consider potential deviations from the general compensatory rule, and how these deviations might be explained by the emotional state of the subject. We utilized a mixture econometric model which allows for various potential decisions rules within the sample, such as the complete ignorance, conjunctive rule and satisfactory rules. The results show that deviations from the full linear compensatory decision rule are predominant, but they are significantly less observed for those subjects with a medium emotional state about the issue of caring for the health state of the elderly. The implication is that the emotional impact of health policy issues should be taken into account when making assumptions of individual choice behaviour in health valuation methods.