Derivation and independent validation of kidneyintelX.dkd: A prognostic test for the assessment of diabetic kidney disease progression.

AIMS: To develop and validate an updated version of KidneyIntelX (kidneyintelX.dkd) to stratify patients for risk of progression of diabetic kidney disease (DKD) stages 1 to 3, to simplify the test for clinical adoption and support an application to the US Food and Drug Administration regulatory pathway. METHODS: We used plasma biomarkers and clinical data from the Penn Medicine Biobank (PMBB) for training, and independent cohorts (BioMe and CANVAS) for validation. The primary outcome was progressive decline in kidney function (PDKF), defined by a ≥40% sustained decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate or end-stage kidney disease within 5 years of follow-up. RESULTS: In 573 PMBB participants with DKD, 15.4% experienced PDKF over a median of 3.7 years. We trained a random forest model using biomarkers and clinical variables. Among 657 BioMe participants and 1197 CANVAS participants, 11.7% and 7.5%, respectively, experienced PDKF. Based on training cut-offs, 57%, 35% and 8% of BioMe participants, and 56%, 38% and 6% of CANVAS participants were classified as having low-, moderate- and high-risk levels, respectively. The cumulative incidence at these risk levels was 5.9%, 21.2% and 66.9% in BioMe and 6.7%, 13.1% and 59.6% in CANVAS. After clinical risk factor adjustment, the adjusted hazard ratios were 7.7 (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.0-19.6) and 3.7 (95% CI 2.0-6.8) in BioMe, and 5.4 (95% CI 2.5-11.9) and 2.3 (95% CI 1.4-3.9) in CANVAS, for high- versus low-risk and moderate- versus low-risk levels, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Using two independent cohorts and a clinical trial population, we validated an updated KidneyIntelX test (named kidneyintelX.dkd), which significantly enhanced risk stratification in patients with DKD for PDKF, independently from known risk factors for progression.

Endotrophin is a risk marker of complications in CANagliflozin cardioVascular Assessment Study (CANVAS): a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Enhanced de-novo collagen type VI (COL VI) formation has been associated with kidney and cardiovascular fibrosis. We hypothesized that endotrophin (ETP), a product specifically generated during collagen type VI formation, may be prognostic for heart failure (HF), cardiovascular death (CVD), kidney endpoints, and all-cause mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We measured ETP in plasma (P-ETP) and urine (U-ETP) samples collected at baseline and follow-up (year 3) from the randomized controlled trial, CANagliflozin cardioVascular Assessment Study (CANVAS), by use of the PRO-C6 ELISA measuring COL VI formation and ETP. At baseline, plasma and urine samples were available for 3531 and 3423 patients, respectively. At year 3, plasma and urine samples were available for 2178 (61.7%) and 2070 (60.5%) patients, respectively Patients were followed for a median of 6.1 years, and endpoints included: incident HF, CVD, three kidney composite endpoints, and all-cause mortality. Backward selection was used to identify variables to be included in the analyses. Robustness of the association with outcome was assessed by bootstrap analyses. RESULTS: In univariable analysis, P-ETP predicted all investigated outcomes (all p < 0.0001), remained independently associated with all outcomes after adjustment for conventional risk factors (all p < 0.004), and increased C-statistics of the models for the outcomes HF, CVD, HFCVD, all-cause mortality, and kidney composite 2 (ΔC ≥ 0.002). In bootstrap analysis, P-ETP was retained with a frequency ranging from 41.0 to 98.4% for all outcomes. Levels of U-ETP were associated with outcomes in univariable analysis, but associations with most outcomes were lost after adjustment for conventional risk factors. The increase in P-ETP over time was greater with increasing albuminuria stage (p < 0.0001) and was independently associated with the kidney endpoints (p < 0.03). In the placebo arm, the increase in P-ETP was prognostic for all-cause mortality (HR [95% CI]; 1.14 [1.05-1.23], p = 0.003). Whereas levels of P-ETP were not impacted by treatment, levels of U-ETP significantly increased with canagliflozin treatment. CONCLUSIONS: P-ETP generated during COL VI formation predicts cardiovascular, kidney and mortality outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes. As ETP identifies patients at increased risk of experiencing relevant outcomes, it may be used for patient enrichment in future clinical trials. Trial Registry Number (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier): NCT01032629.

Fasting Substrate Concentrations Predict Cardiovascular Outcomes in the CANagliflozin cardioVascular Assessment Study (CANVAS).

OBJECTIVE: To examine whether the circulating substrate mix may be related to the incidence of heart failure (HF) and cardiovascular (CV) mortality and how it is altered by canagliflozin treatment. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We measured fasting glucose, free fatty acids (FFA), glycerol, ß-hydroxybutyrate, acetoacetate, lactate, and pyruvate concentrations in 3,581 samples from the CANagliflozin cardioVascular Assessment Study (CANVAS) trial at baseline and at 1 and 2 years after randomization. Results were analyzed by univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: Patients in the lowest baseline FFA tertile were more often men with a longer duration of type 2 diabetes (T2D), higher urinary albumin excretion, lower HDL-cholesterol levels, higher history of CV disease (CVD), and higher use of statins and insulin. When all seven metabolites were used as predictors, FFA were inversely associated with incident hospitalized HF (hazard ratio [HR] 0.33 [95% CI 0.21-0.55]), while glycerol was a positive predictor (2.21 [1.45-3.35]). In a model further adjusted for 16 potential confounders, including prior HF and CVD and pharmacologic therapies, FFA remained a significant negative predictor. FFA and glycerol also predicted CV mortality (HR 0.53 [95% CI 0.35-0.81] and 1.81 [1.26-2.58], respectively) and all-cause death (0.50 [0.36-0.70] and 1.64 [1.22-2.18]). When added to these models, background insulin therapy was an independent positive predictor of risk of death. Canagliflozin treatment significantly increased plasma FFA and ß-hydroxybutyrate regardless of background antihyperglycemic therapy. CONCLUSIONS: A constitutive metabolic setup consisting of higher lipolysis may be beneficial in delaying or preventing hospitalized HF; a further stimulation of lipolysis by canagliflozin may reinforce this influence.

Insulin-Like Growth Factor Binding Protein 7 Predicts Renal and Cardiovascular Outcomes in the Canagliflozin Cardiovascular Assessment Study.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the association between concentrations of plasma insulin-like growth factor binding protein 7 (IGFBP7) with renal and cardiac outcomes among participants with type 2 diabetes and high cardiovascular risk. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Associations between IGFBP7 levels and clinical outcomes were assessed among participants in the Canagliflozin Cardiovascular Assessment Study (CANVAS) with type 2 diabetes and high cardiovascular risk. RESULTS: Among CANVAS participants, 3,577 and 2,898 had IGFBP7 measured at baseline and 1 year, respectively. Per log-unit higher concentration, baseline IGFBP7 was significantly associated with the composite renal end point of sustained 40% reduction in estimated glomerular filtration rate, need for renal replacement therapy, or renal death (hazard ratio [HR] 3.51; P < 0.001) and the composite renal end point plus cardiovascular death (HR 4.90; P < 0.001). Other outcomes, including development or progression of albuminuria, were also predicted by baseline IGFBP7. Most outcomes were improved by canagliflozin regardless of baseline IGFBP7; however, those with baseline concentrations ≥96.5 ng/mL appeared to benefit more from canagliflozin relative to the first progression of albuminuria compared with those with lower baseline IGFBP7 (HR 0.64 vs. 0.95; P interaction = 0.003). Canagliflozin did not lower IGFBP7 concentrations by 1 year; however, at 1 year, higher IGFBP7 concentrations more strongly predicted the composite renal end point (HR 15.7; P < 0.001). Patients with rising IGFBP7 between baseline and 1 year had the highest number of composite renal events. CONCLUSIONS: Plasma IGFBP7 concentrations predicted renal and cardiac events among participants with type 2 diabetes and high cardiovascular risk. More data are needed regarding circulating IGFBP7 and progression of diabetic kidney disease and its complications.

PromarkerD Predicts Renal Function Decline in Type 2 Diabetes in the Canagliflozin Cardiovascular Assessment Study (CANVAS).

The ability of current tests to predict chronic kidney disease (CKD) complicating diabetes is limited. This study investigated the prognostic utility of a novel blood test, PromarkerD, for predicting future renal function decline in individuals with type 2 diabetes from the CANagliflozin CardioVascular Assessment Study (CANVAS). PromarkerD scores were measured at baseline in 3568 CANVAS participants (n = 1195 placebo arm, n = 2373 canagliflozin arm) and used to predict incident CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 mL/min/1.73m2 during follow-up in those above this threshold at baseline) and eGFR decline ≥30% during the 4 years from randomization. Biomarker concentrations (apolipoprotein A-IV (apoA4), CD5 antigen-like (CD5L/AIM) and insulin-like growth factor-binding protein 3 (IGFBP3) measured by mass spectrometry were combined with clinical data (age, serum high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol, eGFR) using a previously defined algorithm to provide PromarkerD scores categorized as low-, moderate- or high-risk. The participants (mean age 63 years, 33% females) had a median PromarkerD score of 2.9%, with 70.5% categorized as low-risk, 13.6% as moderate-risk and 15.9% as high-risk for developing incident CKD. After adjusting for treatment, baseline PromarkerD moderate-risk and high-risk scores were increasingly prognostic for incident CKD (odds ratio 5.29 and 13.52 versus low-risk, respectively; both p < 0.001). Analysis of the PromarkerD test system in CANVAS shows the test can predict clinically significant incident CKD in this multi-center clinical study but had limited utility for predicting eGFR decline ≥30%.

Lifetime benefits of early detection and treatment of diabetic kidney disease.

OBJECTIVES: Diabetic kidney disease (DKD) is a frequent complication of diabetes with potentially devastating consequences that may be prevented or delayed. This study aimed to estimate the health and economic benefit of earlier diagnosis and treatment of DKD. METHODS: Life expectancy and medical spending for people with diabetes were modeled using The Health Economics Medical Innovation Simulation (THEMIS). THEMIS uses data from the Health and Retirement Study to model cohorts of individuals over age 50 to project population-level lifetime health and economic outcomes. DKD status was imputed based on diagnoses and laboratory values in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. We simulated the implementation of a new biomarker identifying people with diabetes at an elevated risk of DKD and DKD patients at risk of rapid progression. RESULTS: Compared to baseline, the prevalence of DKD declined 5.1% with a novel prognostic biomarker test, while the prevalence of diabetes with stage 5 chronic kidney disease declined 3.0%. Consequently, people with diabetes gained 0.2 years in life expectancy, while per-capita annual medical spending fell by 0.3%. The estimated cost was $12,796 per life-year gained and $25,842 per quality-adjusted life-year. CONCLUSIONS: A biomarker test that allows earlier treatment reduces DKD prevalence and slows DKD progression, thereby increasing life expectancy among people with diabetes while raising healthcare spending by less than one percent.