Using administrative data to evaluate national policy impacts on child and maternal health: a research framework from the Maternal and Child Health Network (MatCHNet).

Reducing health inequalities by addressing the social circumstances in which children are conceived and raised is a societal priority. Early interventions are key to improving outcomes in childhood and long-term into adulthood. Across the UK nations, there is strong political commitment to invest in the early years. National policy interventions aim to tackle health inequalities and deliver health equity for all children. Evidence to determine the effectiveness of socio-structural policies on child health outcomes is especially pressing given the current social and economic challenges facing policy-makers and families with children. As an alternative to clinical trials or evaluating local interventions, we propose a research framework that supports evaluating the impact of whole country policies on child health outcomes. Three key research challenges must be addressed to enable such evaluations and improve policy for child health: (1) policy prioritisation, (2) identification of comparable data and (3) application of robust methods.

Identifying opportunities for upstream evaluations relevant to child and maternal health: a UK policy-mapping review.

OBJECTIVE: Interventions to tackle the social determinants of health can improve outcomes during pregnancy and early childhood, leading to better health across the life course. Variation in content, timing and implementation of policies across the 4 UK nations allows for evaluation. We conducted a policy-mapping review (1981-2021) to identify relevant UK early years policies across the social determinants of health framework, and determine suitable candidates for evaluation using administrative data. METHODS: We used open keyword and category searches of UK and devolved Government websites, and hand searched policy reviews. Policies were rated and included using five criteria: (1) Potential for policy to affect maternal and child health outcomes; (2) Implementation variation across the UK; (3) Population reach and expected effect size; (4) Ability to identify exposed/eligible group in administrative data; (5) Potential to affect health inequalities. An expert consensus workshop determined a final shortlist. RESULTS: 336 policies and 306 strategy documents were identified. Policies were mainly excluded due to criteria 2-4, leaving 88. The consensus workshop identified three policy areas as suitable candidates for natural experiment evaluation using administrative data: pregnancy grants, early years education and childcare, and Universal Credit. CONCLUSION: Our comprehensive policy review identifies valuable opportunities to evaluate sociostructural impacts on mother and child outcomes. However, many potentially impactful policies were excluded. This may lead to the inverse evidence law, where there is least evidence for policies believed to be most effective. This could be ameliorated by better access to administrative data, staged implementation of future policies or alternative evaluation methods.

Deprivation and exposure to public activities during the COVID-19 pandemic in England and Wales.

BACKGROUND: Differential exposure to public activities may contribute to stark deprivation-related inequalities in SARS-CoV-2 infection and outcomes but has not been directly investigated. We set out to investigate whether participants in Virus Watch-a large community cohort study based in England and Wales-reported differential exposure to public activities and non-household contacts during the autumn-winter phase of the COVID-19 pandemic according to postcode-level socioeconomic deprivation. METHODS: Participants (n=20 120-25 228 across surveys) reported their daily activities during 3 weekly periods in late November 2020, late December 2020 and mid-February 2021. Deprivation was quantified based on participants' residential postcode using English or Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation quintiles. We used Poisson mixed-effect models with robust standard errors to estimate the relationship between deprivation and risk of exposure to public activities during each survey period. RESULTS: Relative to participants in the least deprived areas, participants in the most deprived areas exhibited elevated risk of exposure to vehicle sharing (adjusted risk ratio (aRR) range across time points: 1.73-8.52), public transport (aRR: 3.13-5.73), work or education outside of the household (aRR: 1.09-1.21), essential shops (aRR: 1.09-1.13) and non-household contacts (aRR: 1.15-1.19) across multiple survey periods. CONCLUSION: Differential exposure to essential public activities-such as attending workplaces and visiting essential shops-is likely to contribute to inequalities in infection risk and outcomes. Public health interventions to reduce exposure during essential activities and financial and practical support to enable low-paid workers to stay at home during periods of intense transmission may reduce COVID-related inequalities.

Age specific trends in mortality disparities by socio-economic deprivation in small geographical areas of England, 2002-2018: A retrospective registry study.

BACKGROUND: Disparities in mortality rates according to socioeconomic position (SEP) have been rising in England. We describe the association between recent changes in socioeconomic inequality and trends in mortality disparities for different age and sex groups at small-area level in England. METHODS: Vital registration data from the Office for National Statistics on resident population size and number of deaths in each Lower Super Output Area (LSOA) in England from 2002 to 2018 were stratified by sex and 5-year age group. We grouped LSOA into ventiles of the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD), our indicator of SEP. We examined time trends in smoothed mortality rates, using 3 year moving averages for the period 2003-2017, by age across the IMD distribution. We measured mortality inequalities using the ratio of mortality rates between different deprivation groups. We calculated mortality rate ratios between the most and the least deprived 10% of areas (Total Inequality) and between the median and least deprived (Lower Inequality) 10% of areas by year, gender and age group, to examine where in the distribution of deprivation trends in mortality inequality arose. FINDINGS: Among <1 year olds, the inequality in mortality rates between the poorest 10% of LSOAs and the richest 10% of LSOAs fell between 2003 and 2017 by 22•7% for men and 22•8% for women. The largest inequalities were observed among 40 to 54 year olds. This inequality increased over the study period - from 3•2 times higher mortality rates for men in the most as opposed to the least deprived 10% of LSOAs in 2003 to 3•3 times in 2017. The rise was from 2•4 to 2•6 for women. Age groups ≥65 years, who experience the highest mortality risk, had low but rising inequality. Men and women aged 65 to 79 living in the most deprived LSOAs had a mortality rate 1•9 times higher than the least deprived in 2003 but this had increased to 2•2 times higher for women and 2•3 times higher for men by 2017. This was due to rising inequality in both halves of the distribution - between the top 10% of LSOA and the middle, and between the middle and the bottom 10% of LSOA. INTERPRETATION: Overall mortality inequality rose in England but there were substantial differences in the trends for specific age and sex groups. Infant and child mortality inequality fell. At older ages, mortality inequality rose across cohorts, although in different ways, as each cohort's exposure to life-course to labour market inequality has differed. Policy goals of reducing mortality inequality will be best met by a focus on the risk factors that are specific to particular age and deprivation groups. FUNDING: Economic and Social Research Council, through the ESRC Centre for the Microeconomic Analysis of Public Policy at the IFS. We gratefully acknowledge the support of the Nuffield Foundation, grant reference WEL/43603. The project has been funded by the Nuffield Foundation, but the views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily the Foundation. Visit www.nuffieldfoundation.org. Research at UCL Great Ormond Street Institute of Child Health is supported by the NIHR Great Ormond Street Hospital Biomedical Research Centre.

Deprivation and mortality related to pediatric respiratory tract infection: a cohort study in 3 high-income jurisdictions.

BACKGROUND: Deaths from respiratory tract infections (RTIs) in children are preventable through timely access to public health and medical interventions. We aimed to assess whether socioeconomic disparities in mortality related to pediatric RTI persisted after accounting for health status at birth. METHODS: We compared the prevalence of and risk factors for RTI-related death in singletons aged 28 days to 4 years across Ontario (Canada), Scotland and England (jurisdictions with universal health care) using linked administrative data for 2003-2013. We estimated rates of RTI-related mortality for children living in deprived areas and those born to teenage girls; we estimated both crude rates and those adjusted for health status at birth. RESULTS: A total of 1 299 240 (Ontario), 547 556 (Scotland) and 3 910 401 (England) children were included in the study. Across all jurisdictions, children born in the most deprived areas experienced the highest rates of RTI-related mortality. After adjustment for high-risk chronic conditions and prematurity, we observed differences in mortality according to area-level deprivation in Ontario and England but not in Scotland. In Ontario, teenage motherhood was also an independent risk factor for RTI-related mortality. INTERPRETATION: Socioeconomic disparities played a substantial role in child mortality related to RTI in all 3 jurisdictions. Context-specific investigations around the mechanisms of this increased risk and development of programs to address socioeconomic disparities are needed.

Origins of disparities in preventable child mortality in England and Sweden: a birth cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To compare mortality in children aged <5 years from two causes amenable to healthcare prevention in England and Sweden: respiratory tract infection (RTI) and sudden unexpected death in infancy (SUDI). DESIGN: Birth cohort study using linked administrative health databases from England and Sweden. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Singleton live births between 2003 and 2012 in England and Sweden, followed up from age 31 days until the fifth birthday, death or 31 December 2013. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The main outcome measures were HR for RTI-related mortality at 31-364 days and at 1-4 years and SUDI mortality at 31-364 days in England versus Sweden estimated using Cox proportional hazards models. We calculated unadjusted HRs and HRs adjusted for birth characteristics (gestational age, birth weight, sex and congenital anomalies) and socioeconomic factors (maternal age and socioeconomic status). RESULTS: The English cohort comprised 3 928 483 births, 768 RTI-related deaths at 31-364 days, 691 RTI-related deaths at 1-4 years and 1166 SUDIs; the corresponding figures for the Swedish cohort were 1 012 682, 131, 118 and 189. At 31-364 days, unadjusted HR for RTI-related death in England versus Sweden was 1.52 (95% CI 1.26 to 1.82). After adjusting for birth characteristics, the HR reduced to 1.16 (95% CI 0.96 to 1.40) and for socioeconomic factors to 1.11 (95% CI 0.92 to 1.34). At 1-4 years, unadjusted HR was 1.58 (95% CI 1.30 to 1.92) and decreased to 1.32 (95% CI 1.09 to 1.61) after adjusting for birth characteristics and to 1.30 (95% CI 1.07 to 1.59) after further adjustment for socioeconomic factors. For SUDI, the respective HRs were 1.59 (95% CI 1.36 to 1.85) in the unadjusted model, and 1.40 (95% CI 1.20 to 1.63) after accounting for birth characteristics and 1.19 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.39) in the fully adjusted model. CONCLUSION: Interventions that improve maternal health before and during pregnancy to reduce the prevalence of adverse birth characteristics and address poverty could reduce child mortality due to RTIs and SUDIs in England.

Emergency admissions and long-term conditions during transition from paediatric to adult care: a cross-sectional study using Hospital Episode Statistics data.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether changes in emergency admission rates during transition from paediatric to adult hospital services differed in children and young people (CYP) with and without underlying long-term conditions (LTCs). DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING: Emergency admissions between 2009 and 2011 recorded in the Hospital Episode Statistics Admitted Patient Care data in England. PARTICIPANTS: 763 199 CYP aged 10-24 years with and without underlying LTCs (LTCs were defined using the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision codes recorded in the past 5 years). PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: We calculated emergency admission rates before (10-15 years) and after transition (19-24 years), stratified by gender, LTC and primary diagnosis. We used negative binomial regression to estimate adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRRs). RESULTS: We included 1 109 978 emergency admissions, of which 63.2% were in children with LTCs. The emergency admission rate increased across the age of transition for all CYP, more so for those with LTCs (IRRLTC: 1.55, 99% CI 1.47 to 1.63), compared with those without (IRRnoLTC: 1.21, 99% CI 1.18 to 1.23). The rates increased most rapidly for CYP with mental health problems, MEDReG (metabolic, endocrine, digestive, renal, genitourinary) disorders, and multiple LTCs (both genders) and respiratory disorders (female only). Small or no increased rates were found for CYP without LTCs and for those with cancer or cardiovascular disease. Increases in length of stay were driven by long admissions (10+ days) for a minority (1%) of CYP with mental health problems and potentially psychosomatic symptoms. Non-specific symptoms related to abdominal pain (girls only), gastrointestinal and respiratory problems were the most frequent primary diagnoses. CONCLUSIONS: The increased rates and duration of emergency admissions and predominance of non-specific admission diagnoses during transition in CYP with underlying LTCs may reflect unmet physical or mental health needs.

Child mortality in England compared with Sweden: a birth cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Child mortality is almost twice as high in England compared with Sweden. We aimed to establish the extent to which adverse birth characteristics and socioeconomic factors explain this difference. METHODS: We developed nationally representative cohorts of singleton livebirths between Jan 1, 2003, and Dec 31, 2012, using the Hospital Episode Statistics in England, and the Swedish Medical Birth Register in Sweden, with longitudinal follow-up from linked hospital admissions and mortality records. We analysed mortality as the outcome, based on deaths from any cause at age 2-27 days, 28-364 days, and 1-4 years. We fitted Cox proportional hazard regression models to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) for England compared with Sweden in all three age groups. The models were adjusted for birth characteristics (gestational age, birthweight, sex, and congenital anomalies), and for socioeconomic factors (maternal age and socioeconomic status). FINDINGS: The English cohort comprised 3 932 886 births and 11 392 deaths and the Swedish cohort comprised 1 013 360 births and 1927 deaths. The unadjusted HRs for England compared with Sweden were 1·66 (95% CI 1·53-1·81) at 2-27 days, 1·59 (1·47-1·71) at 28-364 days, and 1·27 (1·15-1·40) at 1-4 years. At 2-27 days, 77% of the excess risk of death in England was explained by birth characteristics and a further 3% by socioeconomic factors. At 28-364 days, 68% of the excess risk of death in England was explained by birth characteristics and a further 11% by socioeconomic factors. At 1-4 years, the adjusted HR did not indicate a significant difference between countries. INTERPRETATION: Excess child mortality in England compared with Sweden was largely explained by the unfavourable distribution of birth characteristics in England. Socioeconomic factors contributed to these differences through associations with adverse birth characteristics and increased mortality after 1 month of age. Policies to reduce child mortality in England could have most impact by reducing adverse birth characteristics through improving the health of women before and during pregnancy and reducing socioeconomic disadvantage. FUNDING: The Farr Institute of Health Informatics Research (through the Medical Research Council, Arthritis Research UK, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Chief Scientist Office, Economic and Social Research Council, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, National Institute for Health Research, National Institute for Social Care and Health Research, and the Wellcome Trust).

Characteristics and mortality risk of children with life-threatening influenza infection admitted to paediatric intensive care in England 2003-2015.

BACKGROUND: Information is lacking about the severity of complications in children with influenza admitted to paediatric intensive care units (PICU) in the UK. In this study, we report risk factors for mortality, invasive ventilation and use of vasoactive drugs for children admitted to PICU with influenza. METHODS: We evaluated all admissions to PICUs in England for resident children with a recorded influenza diagnosis between September 2003 and March 2015. We used the Paediatric Intensive Care Audit Network (PICANet) database linked to hospital admission records to identify influenza cases, and high-risk comorbidities among admitted children. We used mixed effects logistic regression models to determine risk factors for mortality, use of invasive ventilation and vasoactive drugs. RESULTS: We identified 1961 influenza-related PICU admissions in 1778 children. Children with high-risk conditions accounted for 1540 admissions (78.5%). The odds of mortality were significantly higher for girls than boys (adjusted odds ratio 1.91; 95% confidence interval 1.31, 2.79), children from Asian/Asian British (2.70; 1.74, 4.20) or other minority ethnic groups (3.95; 1.65, 9.42) compared to white British children, and significantly increased before and during the A(H1N1)pdm 2009 pandemic compared to the post-pandemic period. Children required invasive ventilation in 1588 admissions (81.0%), and received vasoactive drugs in 586 admissions (29.9%). CONCLUSIONS: Nearly four fifths of influenza-related PICU admissions occurred in children with high-risk conditions, highlighting the burden of severe influenza in this vulnerable population Further research is required to explain sex and ethnic group differences in PICU mortality among children admitted with influenza.

Estimating the burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) on respiratory hospital admissions in children less than five years of age in England, 2007-2012.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of hospital admission in young children. With several RSV vaccines candidates undergoing clinical trials, recent estimates of RSV burden are required to provide a baseline for vaccine impact studies. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the number of RSV-associated hospital admissions in children aged <5 years in England over a 5-year period from 2007 using ecological time series modelling of national hospital administrative data. PATIENTS/METHODS: Multiple linear regression modelling of weekly time series of laboratory surveillance data and Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data was used to estimate the number of hospital admissions due to major respiratory pathogens including RSV in children <5 years of age in England from mid-2007 to mid-2012, stratified by age group (<6 months, 6-11 months, 1-4 years) and primary diagnosis: bronchiolitis, pneumonia, unspecified lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI), bronchitis and upper respiratory tract infection (URTI). RESULTS: On average, 33 561 (95% confidence interval 30 429-38 489) RSV-associated hospital admissions in children <5 years of age occurred annually from 2007 to 2012. Average annual admission rates were 35.1 (95% CI: 32.9-38.9) per 1000 children aged <1 year and 5.31 (95% CI: 4.5-6.6) per 1000 children aged 1-4 years. About 84% (95% CI: 81-91%) of RSV-associated admissions were for LRTI. The diagnosis-specific burden of RSV-associated admissions differed significantly by age group. CONCLUSIONS: RSV remains a significant cause of hospital admissions in young children in England. Individual-level analysis of RSV-associated admissions is required to fully describe the burden by age and risk group and identify optimal prevention strategies.

Recording of Influenza-Like Illness in UK Primary Care 1995-2013: Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: There is a lack of recent studies examining recording of influenza-like illness (ILI) in primary care in the UK over time and according to population characteristics. Our aim was to determine time trends and socio-demographic patterns of ILI recorded consultations in primary care. METHODS: We used The Health Improvement Network (THIN) UK primary care database and extracted data on all ILI consultations between 1995 and 2013. We estimated ILI recorded consultation rates per 100,000 person-weeks (pw) by age, gender, deprivation and winter season. Negative binomial regression models were used to examine time trends and the effect of socio-demographic characteristics. Trends in ILI recorded consultations were compared to trends in consultations with less specific symptoms (cough or fever) recorded. RESULTS: The study involved 7,682,908 individuals in 542 general practices. The ILI consultation rate decreased from 32.5/100,000 pw (95% confidence interval (CI) 32.1, 32.9) in 1995-98 to 15.5/100,000 pw (95% CI 15.4, 15.7) by 2010-13. The decrease occurred prior to 2002/3, and rates have remained largely stable since then. Declines were evident in all age groups. In comparison, cough or fever consultation rates increased from 169.4/100,000 pw (95% CI 168.6, 170.3) in 1995-98 to 237.7/100,000 pw (95% CI 237.2, 238.2) in 2010-13. ILI consultation rates were highest among individuals aged 15-44 years, higher in women than men, and in individuals from deprived areas. CONCLUSION: There is substantial variation in ILI recorded consultations over time and by population socio-demographic characteristics, most likely reflecting changing recording behaviour by GPs. These results highlight the difficulties in using coded information from electronic primary care records to measure the severity of influenza epidemics across time and assess the relative burden of ILI in different population subgroups.

Incidence of 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 infection in England: a cross-sectional serological study.

BACKGROUND: Knowledge of the age-specific prevalence of immunity from, and incidence of infection with, 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 virus is essential for modelling the future burden of disease and the effectiveness of interventions such as vaccination. METHODS: In this cross-sectional serological survey, we obtained 1403 serum samples taken in 2008 (before the first wave of H1N1 infection) and 1954 serum samples taken in August and September, 2009 (after the first wave of infection) as part of the annual collection for the Health Protection Agency seroepidemiology programme from patients accessing health care in England. Antibody titres were measured by use of haemagglutination inhibition and microneutralisation assays. We calculated the proportion of samples with antibodies to pandemic H1N1 virus in 2008 by age group and compared the proportion of samples with haemagglutination inhibition titre 1:32 or more (deemed a protective response) before the first wave of infection with the proportion after the first wave. FINDINGS: In the baseline serum samples from 2008, haemagglutination inhibition and microneutralisation antibody titres increased significantly with age (F test p<0.0001). The proportion of samples with haemagglutination inhibition titre 1:32 or more ranged from 1.8% (three of 171; 95% CI 0.6-5.0) in children aged 0-4 years to 31.3% (52 of 166; 24.8-38.7) in adults aged 80 years or older. In London and the West Midlands, the difference in the proportion of samples with haemagglutination inhibition titre equal to or above 1:32 between baseline and September, 2009, was 21.3% (95% CI 8.8-40.3) for children younger than 5 years of age, 42.0% (26.3-58.2) for 5-14-year-olds, and 20.6% (1.6-42.4) for 15-24-year-olds, with no difference between baseline and September in older age groups. In other regions, only children younger than 15 years showed a significant increase from baseline (6.3%, 1.8-12.9). INTERPRETATION: Around one child in every three was infected with 2009 pandemic H1N1 in the first wave of infection in regions with a high incidence, ten times more than estimated from clinical surveillance. Pre-existing antibody in older age groups protects against infection. Children have an important role in transmission of influenza and would be a key target group for vaccination both for their protection and for the protection of others through herd immunity. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme.