Challenges and achievements in the utilization of the health system among adolescents in a region of Burkina Faso particularly affected by poverty.

OBJECTIVE: Healthcare for adolescents receives little attention in low-income countries globally despite their large population share in these settings, the importance of disease prevention at these ages for later life outcomes and adolescent health needs differing from those of other ages. We therefore examined healthcare need and use among adolescents in rural Burkina Faso to identify reasons for use and gaps in provision and uptake. METHODS: We interviewed 1,644 adolescents aged 12-20 living in rural northwestern Burkina Faso in 2017. Topics included healthcare need and satisfaction with care provided. We calculated response-weighted prevalence of perceived healthcare need and utilization, then conducted multivariable regression to look at predictors of need, realized access and successful utilization based on the Andersen and Aday model. RESULTS: 43.7 [41.2 - 46.0] % of participants perceived need for healthcare at least once in the preceding 12 months - 52.0 [48.1 - 56.0] % of females and 35.6 [32.5 - 39.0] % of males. Of those with perceived need, 92.6 [90.0 - 94.3] % were able to access care and 79.0 [75.6 - 82.0] % obtained successful utilization. Need was most strongly predicted by gender, education and urbanicity, while predictors of successful use included household wealth and female guardian's educational attainment. CONCLUSION: Healthcare utilization among adolescents is low in rural Burkina Faso, but mostly thought of as sufficient with very few individuals reporting need that was not linked to care. Future objective assessment of healthcare need could help identify whether our results reflect a well-functioning system for these adolescents, or one where barriers lead to low awareness of needs or low expectations for service provision.

Effects of education and age on the experience of youth violence in a very low-resource setting: a fixed-effects analysis in rural Burkina Faso.

OBJECTIVE: The study aimed to investigate the effects of education and age on the experience of youth violence in low-income and middle-income country settings. DESIGN: Using a standardised questionnaire, our study collected two waves of longitudinal data on sociodemographics, health practices, health outcomes and risk factors. The panel fixed-effects ordinary least squares regression models were used for the analysis. SETTINGS: The study was conducted in 59 villages and the town of Nouna with a population of about 100 000 individuals, 1 hospital and 13 primary health centres in Burkina Faso. PARTICIPANTS: We interviewed 1644 adolescents in 2017 and 1291 respondents in 2018 who participated in both rounds. OUTCOME AND EXPOSURE MEASURES: We examined the experience of physical attacks in the past 12 months and bullying in the past 30 days. Our exposures were completed years of age and educational attainment. RESULTS: A substantial minority of respondents experienced violence in both waves (24.1% bullying and 12.2% physical attack), with males experiencing more violence. Bullying was positively associated with more education (ß=0.12; 95% CI 0.02 to 0.22) and non-significantly with older age. Both effects were stronger in males than females, although the gender differences were not significant. Physical attacks fell with increasing age (ß=-0.18; 95% CI -0.31 to -0.05) and this association was again stronger in males than females; education and physical attacks were not substantively associated. CONCLUSIONS: Bullying and physical attacks are common for rural adolescent Burkinabe. The age patterns found suggest that, particularly for males, there is a need to target violence prevention at younger ages and bullying prevention at slightly older ones, particularly for those remaining in school. Nevertheless, a fuller understanding of the mechanisms behind our findings is needed to design effective interventions to protect youth in low-income settings from violence.

Counting adolescents in: the development of an adolescent health indicator framework for population-based settings.

Changing realities in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) in terms of inequalities, urbanization, globalization, migration, and economic adversity shape adolescent development and health, as well as successful transitions between adolescence and young adulthood. It is estimated that 90% of adolescents live in LMICs in 2019, but inadequate data exist to inform evidence-based and concerted policies and programs tailored to address the distinctive developmental and health needs of adolescents. Population-based data surveillance such as Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSS) and school-based surveys provide access to a well-defined population and provide cost-effective opportunities to fill in data gaps about adolescent health and well-being by collecting population-representative longitudinal data. The Africa Research Implementation Science and Education (ARISE) Network, therefore, systematically developed adolescent health and well-being indicators and a questionnaire for measuring these indicators that can be used in population-based LMIC settings. We conducted a multistage collaborative and iterative process led by network members alongside consultation with health-domain and adolescent health experts globally. Seven key domains emerged from this process: socio-demographics, health awareness and behaviors; nutrition; mental health; sexual and reproductive health; substance use; and healthcare utilization. For each domain, we generated a clear definition; rationale for inclusion; sub-domain descriptions, and a set of questions for measurement. The ARISE Network will implement the questionnaire longitudinally (i.e., at two time-points one year apart) at ten sites in seven countries in sub-Saharan Africa and two countries in Asia. Integrating the questionnaire within established population-based data collection platforms such as HDSS and school settings can provide measured experiences of young people to inform policy and program planning and evaluation in LMICs and improve adolescent health and well-being.

Prevalence and correlates of adolescent self-injurious thoughts and behaviors: A population-based study in Burkina Faso.

Self-injurious thoughts and behaviors (SITBs) are a growing concern among youth in sub-Saharan Africa, but their prevalence and correlates in this region are poorly understood. We therefore examined self-reported SITBs in a population-representative sample of youth in rural Burkina Faso. We used interviews from 1,538 adolescents aged 12 to 20 years living in 10 villages and 1 town in northwestern Burkina Faso. Adolescents were asked about their experiences with suicidal and nonsuicidal SITBs, adverse environmental factors, psychiatric symptoms, and interpersonal-social experiences. SITBs included lifetime prevalence of life is not worth living, passive suicide ideation, active suicide ideation, and nonsuicidal self-injury (NSSI). After describing SITB prevalence, we ran logistic and negative binomial regression models to predict SITBs. Weighted lifetime SITB prevalence estimates were: 15.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 13.7-18.0) for NSSI; 15.1% (95% CI: [13.2, 17.0]) for life is not worth living; 5.0% (95% CI [3.9, 6.0]) for passive suicide ideation; and 2.3% (95% CI [1.6, 3.0]) for active suicide ideation. Prevalence of life is not worth living increased with age. All four SITBs were significantly positively associated with mental health symptoms (depression symptoms, probable posttraumatic stress disorder) and interpersonal-social experiences (peer and social connectedness, physical assault, sexual assault and unwanted sexual experiences). Females were significantly more likely to report that their life was not worth living compared to males (aOR = 0.68; 95% CI [0.48, 0.96]). There is a high prevalence of SITBs among youth in rural Burkina Faso, most notably NSSI and life is not worth living, with interpersonal-social factors being the strongest predictors. Our results highlight the need for longitudinal SITB assessment to understand how risk for SITBs operates in resource-constrained settings, and to design interventions to mitigate risk. Given low school enrollment in rural Burkina Faso, it will be important to consider youth suicide prevention and mental health initiatives that are not school-based.

Evaluating use of mass-media communication intervention 'MTV-Shuga' on increased awareness and demand for HIV and sexual health services by adolescent girls and young women in South Africa: an observational study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the effect of exposure to MTV Shuga:Down South' (MTVShuga-DS) during the scale-up of combination HIV-prevention interventions on awareness and uptake of sexual reproductive health (SRH) and HIV-prevention services by adolescent girls and young women (AGYW). DESIGN: One longitudinal and three cross-sectional surveys of representative samples of AGYW. SETTING: AGYW in four South African districts with high HIV prevalence (>10%) (May 2017 and September 2019). PARTICIPANTS: 6311 AGYW aged 12-24. MEASURES: Using logistic regression, we measured the relationship between exposure to MTV Shuga-DS and awareness of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), condom use at last sex, uptake of HIV-testing or contraception, and incident pregnancy or herpes simplex virus 2 (HSV-2) infection. RESULTS: Within the rural cohort 2184 (85.5%) of eligible sampled individuals were enrolled, of whom 92.6% had at least one follow-up visit; the urban cross-sectional surveys enrolled 4127 (22.6%) of eligible sampled individuals. Self-report of watching at least one MTV Shuga-DS episode was 14.1% (cohort) and 35.8% (cross-section), while storyline recall was 5.5% (cohort) and 6.7% (cross-section). In the cohort, after adjustment (for HIV-prevention intervention-exposure, age, education, socioeconomic status), MTVShuga-DS exposure was associated with increased PrEP awareness (adjusted OR (aOR) 2.06, 95% CI 1.57 to 2.70), contraception uptake (aOR 2.08, 95% CI 1.45 to 2.98) and consistent condom use (aOR 1.84, 95% CI 1.24 to 2.93), but not with HIV testing (aOR 1.02, 95% CI 0.77 to 1.21) or acquiring HSV-2 (aOR 0.92, 95% CI 0.61 to 1.38). In the cross-sections, MTVShuga-DS was associated with greater PrEP awareness (aOR 1.7, 95% CI 1.20 to 2.43), but no other outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Among both urban and rural AGYW in South Africa, MTVShuga-DS exposure was associated with increased PrEP awareness and improved demand for some HIV prevention and SRH technologies but not sexual health outcomes. However, exposure to MTVShuga-DS was low. Given these positive indications, supportive programming may be required to raise exposure and allow future evaluation of edu-drama impact in this setting.

Health and economic benefits of secondary education in the context of poverty: Evidence from Burkina Faso.

Even though formal education is considered a key determinant of individual well-being globally, enrollment in secondary schooling remains low in many low- and middle-income countries, suggesting that the perceived returns to such schooling may be low. We jointly estimate survival and monetary benefits of secondary schooling using detailed demographic and surveillance data from the Boucle du Mouhoun region, Burkina Faso, where national upper secondary schooling completion rates are among the lowest globally (<10%). We first explore surveillance data from the Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance System from 1992 to 2016 to determine long-term differences in survival outcomes between secondary and higher and primary schooling using Cox proportional hazards models. To estimate average increases in asset holdings associated with secondary schooling, we use regionally representative data from the Burkina Faso Demographic Health Surveys (2003, 2010, 2014, 2017-18; N = 3,924). Survival was tracked for 14,892 individuals. Each year of schooling was associated with a mortality reduction of up to 16% (95% CI 0.75-0.94), implying an additional 1.9 years of life expectancy for men and 5.1 years for women for secondary schooling compared to individuals completing only primary school. Relative to individuals with primary education, individuals with secondary or higher education held 26% more assets (SE 0.02; CI 0.22-0.30). Economic returns for women were 3% points higher than male returns with 10% (SE 0.03; CI 0.04-0.16) vs. 7% (SE 0.02; CI 0.02-0.012) and in rural areas 20% points higher than in urban areas with 30% (SE 0.06; CI 0.19-0.41) vs. 4% (SE 0.01; CI 0.02-0.07). Our results suggest that secondary education is associated with substantial health and economic benefits in the study area and should therefore be considered by researchers, governments, and other major stakeholders to create for example school promotion programs.

The sexual and reproductive health needs of school-going young people in the context of COVID-19 in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

Background: The impact of school closures due to COVID-19 raised widespread concerns about children's health and well-being. We examine the impact on the sexual health needs of learners in the context of COVID-19 related lockdowns in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.Methods: In july-November 2020 and August-November 2021 we conducted 24 in-depth interviews and 8 group discussions with teachers and learners from 4 schools, community members and key education stakeholders. All interviews were conducted by telephone. We used a thematic analysis approach and Nvivo 12 software to manage the data.Results: Four main themes related to the COVID-19 pandemic emerged from the data: the sexual and reproductive health (SRH) of learners in the lead-up to the pandemic; the impact of COVID-19 on learners' SRH and wellbeing; the opportunities schools provided to support sexual well-being of learners during the pandemic; and the role of schools in supporting SRH for learners during the pandemic. Learners and stakeholders reported that the SRH of young people was affected by alcohol misuse, poor SRH knowledge and few pathways to link learners with services. Stakeholders working with schools reported that a lack of access to biomedical interventions (e.g., contraception) increased learner pregnancies. Gender-based violence in learners' households was reported to have increased during the COVID-19 pandemic related to loss of income. School closures disrupted the provision of a safe space to provide SRH and HIV-education through Life Orientation lessons and school nurse talks. This loss of a safe space also left learners vulnerable to sexual and physical violence. However, once schools re-opened, daily COVID-19 screening in schools provided the opportunity to identify and support vulnerable children who had other social needs (food and uniforms).Conclusion: The COVID-19 pandemic may have increased SRH needs and vulnerability of school-going children in a high HIV-burden rural setting. School shutdowns reduced the opportunity for schools to provide a vital safe space and information to enhance SRH for adolescents. Schools play a vital health promotion and social protection role.

Value of statistical life year in extreme poverty: a randomized experiment of measurement methods in rural Burkina Faso.

BACKGROUND: Value of a Statistical Life Year (VSLY) provides an important economic measure of an individual's trade-off between health risks and other consumption, and is a widely used policy parameter. Measuring VSLY is complex though, especially in low-income and low-literacy communities. METHODS: Using a large randomized experiment (N = 3027), we study methodological aspects of stated-preference elicitation with payment cards (price lists) in an extreme poverty context. In a 2 × 2 design, we systematically vary whether buying or selling prices are measured, crossed with the range of the payment card. RESULTS: We find substantial effects of both the pricing method and the list range on elicited VSLY. Estimates of the gross domestic product per capita multiplier for VSLY range from 3.5 to 33.5 depending on the study design. Importantly, all estimates are economically and statistically significantly larger than the current World Health Organization threshold of 3.0 for cost-effectiveness analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Our results inform design choice in VSLY measurements, and provide insight into the potential variability of these measurements and possibly robustness checks.

Clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in South Africa.

Low- and middle-income countries are implementing COVID-19 vaccination strategies in light of varying vaccine efficacies and costs, supply shortages, and resource constraints. Here, we use a microsimulation model to evaluate clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness of a COVID-19 vaccination program in South Africa. We varied vaccination coverage, pace, acceptance, effectiveness, and cost as well as epidemic dynamics. Providing vaccines to at least 40% of the population and prioritizing vaccine rollout prevented >9 million infections and >73,000 deaths and reduced costs due to fewer hospitalizations. Model results were most sensitive to assumptions about epidemic growth and prevalence of prior immunity to SARS-CoV-2, though the vaccination program still provided high value and decreased both deaths and health care costs across a wide range of assumptions. Vaccination program implementation factors, including prompt procurement, distribution, and rollout, are likely more influential than characteristics of the vaccine itself in maximizing public health benefits and economic efficiency.

Feeling Younger in Rural Burkina Faso: Exploring the Role of Subjective Age in the Light of Previous Research From High-Income Countries.

OBJECTIVES: Previous research on subjective age (SA), that is, how young or old a person feels relative to their chronological age, has shown that older adults tend to feel younger than they are (by about 15%-20%), but the extent of this effect depends, in part, on their health. However, as most of the studies have been conducted in Western countries, it is unclear how well these results generalize to culturally different samples. Objectives, therefore, were to examine SA in middle-aged and older adults from a very low-income setting in rural Burkina Faso, to examine associations between SA and health/quality of life-related measures, and to compare findings with Western studies. METHODS: Representative, cross-sectional sample of N = 3,028 adults (≥40 years, recruited in 2018) from north-western Burkina Faso. Data included questionnaires on depression (Patient Health Questionnaire-9) and quality of life (World Health Organization Quality of Life scale, including subjective health) as well as performance-based and objective health-related measures (Community Screening Instrument for Dementia as cognitive screening, walking speed). RESULTS: Respondents felt on average 3% younger (SD = 0.13) than their chronological age, with 48% (95% confidence interval: 0.46-0.50) feeling younger-27 percentage points lower than seen in representative Western studies. Lower depression, better walking speed, cognition, and quality of life were all associated with younger SA. DISCUSSION: Middle-aged and older adults in Nouna felt less young than similar age groups in Western studies. One of the reasons may be that youthfulness is less of a value outside Western cultures. As in Western studies, parts of the variation in SA can be explained by health parameters.

Non-fatal injuries in rural Burkina Faso amongst older adults, disease burden and health system responsiveness: a cross-sectional household survey.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to evaluate the epidemiology of injury as well as patient-reported health system responsiveness following injury and how this compares with non-injured patient experience, in older individuals in rural Burkina Faso. DESIGN: Cross-sectional household survey. Secondary analysis of the CRSN Heidelberg Ageing Study dataset. SETTING: Rural Burkina Faso. PARTICIPANTS: 3028 adults, over 40, from multiple ethnic groups, were randomly sampled from the 2015 Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance Site census. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome was incidence of injury. Secondary outcomes were incidence of injury related disability and patient-reported health system responsiveness following injury. RESULTS: 7.7% (232/3028) of the population reported injury in the preceding 12 months. In multivariable analyses, younger age, male sex, highest wealth quintile, an abnormal Generalised Anxiety Disorder score and lower Quality of Life score were all associated with injury. The most common mechanism of injury was being struck or hit by an object, 32.8%. In multivariable analysis, only education was significantly negatively associated with odds of disability (OR 0.407, 95% CI 0.17 to 0.997). Across all survey participants, 3.9% (119/3028) reported their most recent care seeking episode was following injury, rather than for another condition. Positive experience and satisfaction with care were reported following injury, with shorter median wait times (10 vs 20 min, p=0.002) and longer consultation times (20 vs 15 min, p=0.002) than care for another reason. Injured patients were also asked to return to health facilities more often than those seeking care for another reason, 81.4% (95% CI 73.1% to 87.9%) vs 54.8% (95% CI 49.9% to 53.6%). CONCLUSIONS: Injury is an important disease burden in this older adult rural low-income and middle-income country population. Further research could inform preventative strategies, including safer rural farming methods, explore the association between adverse mental health and injury, and strengthen health system readiness to provide quality care.

Clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in South Africa.

Low- and middle-income countries are implementing COVID-19 vaccination strategies in light of varying vaccine efficacies and costs, supply shortages, and resource constraints. Here, we use a microsimulation model to evaluate clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness of a COVID-19 vaccination program in South Africa. We varied vaccination coverage, pace, acceptance, effectiveness, and cost as well as epidemic dynamics. Providing vaccines to at least 40% of the population and prioritizing vaccine rollout prevented >9 million infections and >73,000 deaths and reduced costs due to fewer hospitalizations. Model results were most sensitive to assumptions about epidemic growth and prevalence of prior immunity to SARS-CoV-2, though the vaccination program still provided high value and decreased both deaths and health care costs across a wide range of assumptions. Vaccination program implementation factors, including prompt procurement, distribution, and rollout, are likely more influential than characteristics of the vaccine itself in maximizing public health benefits and economic efficiency.

Protective Behaviors and Secondary Harms Resulting From Nonpharmaceutical Interventions During the COVID-19 Epidemic in South Africa: Multisite, Prospective Longitudinal Study.

BACKGROUND: In March 2020, South Africa implemented strict nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to contain the spread of COVID-19. Over the subsequent 5 months, NPI policies were eased in stages according to a national strategy. COVID-19 spread throughout the country heterogeneously; the disease reached rural areas by July and case numbers peaked from July to August. A second COVID-19 wave began in late 2020. Data on the impact of NPI policies on social and economic well-being and access to health care are limited. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to determine how rural residents in three South African provinces changed their behaviors during the first COVID-19 epidemic wave. METHODS: The South African Population Research Infrastructure Network nodes in the Mpumalanga (Agincourt), KwaZulu-Natal, (Africa Health Research Institute) and Limpopo (Dikgale-Mamabolo-Mothiba) provinces conducted up to 14 rounds of longitudinal telephone surveys among randomly sampled households from rural and periurban surveillance populations every 2-3 weeks. Interviews included questions on the following topics: COVID-19-related knowledge and behaviors, the health and economic impacts of NPIs, and mental health. We analyzed how responses varied based on NPI stringency and household sociodemographics. RESULTS: In total, 5120 households completed 23,095 interviews between April and December 2020. Respondents' self-reported satisfaction with their COVID-19-related knowledge and face mask use rapidly rose to 85% and 95%, respectively, by August. As selected NPIs were eased, the amount of travel increased, economic losses were reduced, and the prevalence of anxiety and depression symptoms fell. When the number of COVID-19 cases spiked at one node in July, the amount of travel dropped rapidly and the rate of missed daily medications doubled. Households where more adults received government-funded old-age pensions reported concerns about economic matters and medication access less often. CONCLUSIONS: South Africans complied with stringent, COVID-19-related NPIs despite the threat of substantial social, economic, and health repercussions. Government-supported social welfare programs appeared to buffer interruptions in income and health care access during local outbreaks. Epidemic control policies must be balanced against the broader well-being of people in resource-limited settings and designed with parallel support systems when such policies threaten peoples' income and access to basic services.

Impairment in Activities of Daily Living and Unmet Need for Care Among Older Adults: A Population-Based Study From Burkina Faso.

OBJECTIVES: The importance of impairment in performing activities of daily living (ADL) is likely to increase in sub-Saharan Africa because few care options for affected people exist. This study investigated the prevalence of ADL impairment, the extent to which care need was met, and described characteristics of people with ADL impairment and unmet need in Burkina Faso. METHODS: This study used data from the Centre de Recherche en Santé de Nouna Heidelberg Aging Study, a population-based study among 3,026 adults aged older than 40 years conducted in rural Burkina Faso. Information on 6 basic ADL items was sought, with a follow-up question asking whether care need was not met, partially met, or met. Bivariable correlations and multivariable logistic regression were used to determine sociodemographic and health characteristics associated with ADL impairment and unmet need. RESULTS: ADL impairment of any kind was reported by 1,202 (39.7%) respondents and was associated with older age (adjusted odds ratio: 1.05 [95% CI: 1.04-1.06]), being a woman (1.33 [1.06-1.60]), and reporting depressive symptoms (1.90 [1.65-2.18]). Among those with ADL impairment, 67.8% had at least one unmet need. Severe ADL impairment was found in 202 (6.7%) respondents, who reported a lower prevalence of unmet need (43.1%). Severe ADL impairment was associated with depressive symptoms (2.55 [2.11-3.07]) to a stronger degree than any ADL impairment. DISCUSSION: Prevalence of ADL impairment and unmet need was high in this setting. Variation in impairment across the population highlighted key groups for future interventions. Unmet need for care was highest in middle-aged adults, indicating a gap in care provision.

Is the lack of smartphone data skewing wealth indices in low-income settings?

BACKGROUND: Smartphones have rapidly become an important marker of wealth in low- and middle-income countries, but international household surveys do not regularly gather data on smartphone ownership and these data are rarely used to calculate wealth indices. METHODS: We developed a cross-sectional survey module delivered to 3028 households in rural northwest Burkina Faso to measure the effects of this absence. Wealth indices were calculated using both principal components analysis (PCA) and polychoric PCA for a base model using only ownership of any cell phone, and a full model using data on smartphone ownership, the number of cell phones, and the purchase of mobile data. Four outcomes (household expenditure, education level, and prevalence of frailty and diabetes) were used to evaluate changes in the composition of wealth index quintiles using ordinary least squares and logistic regressions and Wald tests. RESULTS: Households that own smartphones have higher monthly expenditures and own a greater quantity and quality of household assets. Expenditure and education levels are significantly higher at the fifth (richest) socioeconomic status (SES) quintile of full model wealth indices as compared to base models. Similarly, diabetes prevalence is significantly higher at the fifth SES quintile using PCA wealth index full models, but this is not observed for frailty prevalence, which is more prevalent among lower SES households. These effects are not present when using polychoric PCA, suggesting that this method provides additional robustness to missing asset data to measure underlying latent SES by proxy. CONCLUSIONS: The lack of smartphone data can skew PCA-based wealth index performance in a low-income context for the top of the socioeconomic spectrum. While some PCA variants may be robust to the omission of smartphone ownership, eliciting smartphone ownership data in household surveys is likely to substantially improve the validity and utility of wealth estimates.

Clinical Impact, Costs, and Cost-effectiveness of Expanded Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Testing in Massachusetts.

BACKGROUND: We projected the clinical and economic impact of alternative testing strategies on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) incidence and mortality in Massachusetts using a microsimulation model. METHODS: We compared 4 testing strategies: (1) hospitalized: polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing only for patients with severe/critical symptoms warranting hospitalization; (2) symptomatic: PCR for any COVID-19-consistent symptoms, with self-isolation if positive; (3) symptomatic + asymptomatic once: symptomatic and 1-time PCR for the entire population; and (4) symptomatic + asymptomatic monthly: symptomatic with monthly retesting for the entire population. We examined effective reproduction numbers (Re = 0.9-2.0) at which policy conclusions would change. We assumed homogeneous mixing among the Massachusetts population (excluding those residing in long-term care facilities). We used published data on disease progression and mortality, transmission, PCR sensitivity/specificity (70%/100%), and costs. Model-projected outcomes included infections, deaths, tests performed, hospital-days, and costs over 180 days, as well as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs, $/quality-adjusted life-year [QALY]). RESULTS: At Re = 0.9, symptomatic + asymptomatic monthly vs hospitalized resulted in a 64% reduction in infections and a 46% reduction in deaths, but required >66-fold more tests/day with 5-fold higher costs. Symptomatic + asymptomatic monthly had an ICER <$100 000/QALY only when Re ≥1.6; when test cost was ≤$3, every 14-day testing was cost-effective at all Re examined. CONCLUSIONS: Testing people with any COVID-19-consistent symptoms would be cost-saving compared to testing only those whose symptoms warrant hospital care. Expanding PCR testing to asymptomatic people would decrease infections, deaths, and hospitalizations. Despite modest sensitivity, low-cost, repeat screening of the entire population could be cost-effective in all epidemic settings.

Cost-effectiveness of public health strategies for COVID-19 epidemic control in South Africa: a microsimulation modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Health-care resource constraints in low-income and middle-income countries necessitate the identification of cost-effective public health interventions to address COVID-19. We aimed to develop a dynamic COVID-19 microsimulation model to assess clinical and economic outcomes and cost-effectiveness of epidemic control strategies in KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa. METHODS: We compared different combinations of five public health interventions: health-care testing alone, where diagnostic testing is done only for individuals presenting to health-care centres; contact tracing in households of cases; isolation centres, for cases not requiring hospital admission; mass symptom screening and molecular testing for symptomatic individuals by community health-care workers; and quarantine centres, for household contacts who test negative. We calibrated infection transmission rates to match effective reproduction number (Re) estimates reported in South Africa. We assessed two main epidemic scenarios for a period of 360 days, with an Re of 1·5 and 1·2. Strategies with incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of less than US$3250 per year of life saved were considered cost-effective. We also did sensitivity analyses by varying key parameters (Re values, molecular testing sensitivity, and efficacies and costs of interventions) to determine the effect on clinical and cost projections. FINDINGS: When Re was 1·5, health-care testing alone resulted in the highest number of COVID-19 deaths during the 360-day period. Compared with health-care testing alone, a combination of health-care testing, contact tracing, use of isolation centres, mass symptom screening, and use of quarantine centres reduced mortality by 94%, increased health-care costs by 33%, and was cost-effective (ICER $340 per year of life saved). In settings where quarantine centres were not feasible, a combination of health-care testing, contact tracing, use of isolation centres, and mass symptom screening was cost-effective compared with health-care testing alone (ICER $590 per year of life saved). When Re was 1·2, health-care testing, contact tracing, use of isolation centres, and use of quarantine centres was the least costly strategy, and no other strategies were cost-effective. In sensitivity analyses, a combination of health-care testing, contact tracing, use of isolation centres, mass symptom screening, and use of quarantine centres was generally cost-effective, with the exception of scenarios in which Re was 2·6 and when efficacies of isolation centres and quarantine centres for transmission reduction were reduced. INTERPRETATION: In South Africa, strategies involving household contact tracing, isolation, mass symptom screening, and quarantining household contacts who test negative would substantially reduce COVID-19 mortality and would be cost-effective. The optimal combination of interventions depends on epidemic growth characteristics and practical implementation considerations. FUNDING: US National Institutes of Health, Royal Society, Wellcome Trust.

Clinical Outcomes, Costs, and Cost-effectiveness of Strategies for Adults Experiencing Sheltered Homelessness During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Importance: Approximately 356 000 people stay in homeless shelters nightly in the United States. They have high risk of contracting coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Objective: To assess the estimated clinical outcomes, costs, and cost-effectiveness associated with strategies for COVID-19 management among adults experiencing sheltered homelessness. Design, Setting, and Participants: This decision analytic model used a simulated cohort of 2258 adults residing in homeless shelters in Boston, Massachusetts. Cohort characteristics and costs were adapted from Boston Health Care for the Homeless Program. Disease progression, transmission, and outcomes data were taken from published literature and national databases. Surging, growing, and slowing epidemics (effective reproduction numbers [Re], 2.6, 1.3, and 0.9, respectively) were examined. Costs were from a health care sector perspective, and the time horizon was 4 months, from April to August 2020. Exposures: Daily symptom screening with polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing of individuals with positive symptom screening results, universal PCR testing every 2 weeks, hospital-based COVID-19 care, alternative care sites (ACSs) for mild or moderate COVID-19, and temporary housing were each compared with no intervention. Main Outcomes and Measures: Cumulative infections and hospital-days, costs to the health care sector (US dollars), and cost-effectiveness, as incremental cost per case of COVID-19 prevented. Results: The simulated population of 2258 sheltered homeless adults had a mean (SD) age of 42.6 (9.04) years. Compared with no intervention, daily symptom screening with ACSs for pending tests or confirmed COVID-19 and mild or moderate disease was associated with 37% fewer infections (1954 vs 1239) and 46% lower costs ($6.10 million vs $3.27 million) at an Re of 2.6, 75% fewer infections (538 vs 137) and 72% lower costs ($1.46 million vs $0.41 million) at an Re of 1.3, and 51% fewer infections (174 vs 85) and 51% lower costs ($0.54 million vs $0.26 million) at an Re of 0.9. Adding PCR testing every 2 weeks was associated with a further decrease in infections; incremental cost per case prevented was $1000 at an Re of 2.6, $27 000 at an Re of 1.3, and $71 000 at an Re of 0.9. Temporary housing with PCR every 2 weeks was most effective but substantially more expensive than other options. Compared with no intervention, temporary housing with PCR every 2 weeks was associated with 81% fewer infections (376) and 542% higher costs ($39.12 million) at an Re of 2.6, 82% fewer infections (95) and 2568% higher costs ($38.97 million) at an Re of 1.3, and 59% fewer infections (71) and 7114% higher costs ($38.94 million) at an Re of 0.9. Results were sensitive to cost and sensitivity of PCR and ACS efficacy in preventing transmission. Conclusions and Relevance: In this modeling study of simulated adults living in homeless shelters, daily symptom screening and ACSs were associated with fewer severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections and decreased costs compared with no intervention. In a modeled surging epidemic, adding universal PCR testing every 2 weeks was associated with further decrease in SARS-CoV-2 infections at modest incremental cost and should be considered during future surges.

Protective behaviours and secondary harms from non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 epidemic in South Africa: a multisite prospective longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: In March 2020 South Africa implemented strict non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to contain Covid-19. Over the subsequent five months NPIs were eased in stages according to national strategy. Covid-19 spread throughout the country heterogeneously, reaching rural areas by July and peaking in July-August. Data on the impact of NPI policies on social and economic wellbeing and access to healthcare is limited. We therefore analysed how rural residents of three South African provinces changed their behaviour during the first epidemic wave. METHODS: The South African Population Research Infrastructure Network (SAPRIN) nodes in Mpumalanga (Agincourt), KwaZulu-Natal (AHRI) and Limpopo (DIMAMO) provinces conducted longitudinal telephone surveys among randomly sampled households from rural and peri-urban surveillance populations every 2-3 weeks. Interviews included questions on: Covid-19 knowledge and behaviours; health and economic impact of NPIs; and mental health. RESULTS: 2262 households completed 10,966 interviews between April and August 2020. By August, self-reported satisfaction with Covid-19 knowledge had risen from 48% to 85% and facemask use to over 95%. As selected NPIs were eased mobility increased, and economic losses and anxiety and depression symptoms fell. When Covid-19 cases spiked at one node in July, movement dropped rapidly, and missed daily medication rates doubled. Economic concerns and mental health symptoms were lower in households receiving a greater number of government-funded old-age pensions. CONCLUSIONS: South Africans reported complying with stringent Covid-19 NPIs despite the threat of substantial social, economic and health repercussions. Government-supported social welfare programmes appeared to buffer interruptions in income and healthcare access during local outbreaks. Epidemic control policies must be balanced against impacts on wellbeing in resource-limited settings and designed with parallel support systems where they threaten income and basic service access.

Clinical Outcomes, Costs, and Cost-effectiveness of Strategies for People Experiencing Sheltered Homelessness During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

IMPORTANCE: Approximately 356,000 people stay in homeless shelters nightly in the US. They are at high risk for COVID-19. OBJECTIVE: To assess clinical outcomes, costs, and cost-effectiveness of strategies for COVID-19 management among sheltered homeless adults. DESIGN: We developed a dynamic microsimulation model of COVID-19 in sheltered homeless adults in Boston, Massachusetts. We used cohort characteristics and costs from Boston Health Care for the Homeless Program. Disease progression, transmission, and outcomes data were from published literature and national databases. We examined surging, growing, and slowing epidemics (effective reproduction numbers [Re] 2.6, 1.3, and 0.9). Costs were from a health care sector perspective; time horizon was 4 months, from April to August 2020. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: Simulated cohort of 2,258 adults residing in homeless shelters in Boston. INTERVENTIONS: We assessed daily symptom screening with polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing of screen-positives, universal PCR testing every 2 weeks, hospital-based COVID-19 care, alternate care sites [ACSs] for mild/moderate COVID-19, and temporary housing, each compared to no intervention. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Cumulative infections and hospital-days, costs to the health care sector (US dollars), and cost-effectiveness, as incremental cost per case prevented of COVID-19. RESULTS: We simulated a population of 2,258 sheltered homeless adults with mean age of 42.6 years. Compared to no intervention, daily symptom screening with ACSs for pending tests or confirmed COVID-19 and mild/moderate disease led to 37% fewer infections and 46% lower costs (Re=2.6), 75% fewer infections and 72% lower costs (Re=1.3), and 51% fewer infections and 51% lower costs (Re=0.9). Adding PCR testing every 2 weeks further decreased infections; incremental cost per case prevented was $1,000 (Re=2.6), $27,000 (Re=1.3), and $71,000 (Re=0.9). Temporary housing with PCR every 2 weeks was most effective but substantially more costly than other options. Results were sensitive to cost and sensitivity of PCR and ACS efficacy in preventing transmission. CONCLUSIONS & RELEVANCE: In this modeling study of simulated adults living in homeless shelters, daily symptom screening and ACSs were associated with fewer COVID-19 infections and decreased costs compared with no intervention. In a modeled surging epidemic, adding universal PCR testing every 2 weeks was associated with further decrease in COVID-19 infections at modest incremental cost and should be considered during future surges.