Measuring and monitoring equity in access to deceased donor kidney transplantation.

The Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network monitors progress toward strategic goals such as increasing the number of transplants and improving waitlisted patient, living donor, and transplant recipient outcomes. However, a methodology for assessing system performance in providing equity in access to transplants was lacking. We present a novel approach for quantifying the degree of disparity in access to deceased donor kidney transplants among waitlisted patients and determine which factors are most associated with disparities. A Poisson rate regression model was built for each of 29 quarterly, period-prevalent cohorts (January 1, 2010-March 31, 2017; 5 years pre-kidney allocation system [KAS], 2 years post-KAS) of active kidney waiting list registrations. Inequity was quantified as the outlier-robust standard deviation (SDw ) of predicted transplant rates (log scale) among registrations, after "discounting" for intentional, policy-induced disparities (eg, pediatric priority) by holding such factors constant. The overall SDw declined by 40% after KAS implementation, suggesting substantially increased equity. Risk-adjusted, factor-specific disparities were measured with the SDw after holding all other factors constant. Disparities associated with calculated panel-reactive antibodies decreased sharply. Donor service area was the factor most associated with access disparities post-KAS. This methodology will help the transplant community evaluate tradeoffs between equity and utility-centric goals when considering new policies and help monitor equity in access as policies change.

OPTN/SRTR 2016 Annual Data Report: Intestine.

Despite improvements in medical and surgical treatment of intestinal failure, intestine transplant continues to play an important role. In 2016, a total of 147 intestine transplants were performed, 80 intestine-without-liver and 67 intestine-liver. Over the past decade, the age distribution of candidates waitlisted for intestine and intestine-liver transplant shifted from primarily pediatric to increasing proportions of adults. In 2016, 58.2% of candidates on the intestine list at any time during the year were aged younger than 18 years, with a decrease over time in those aged younger than 6 years and an increase in those aged 6-17 years. Adults accounted for 41.9% of candidates on the list at any time during the year, with a stable proportion of those aged 18-34 years and a decrease in those aged 35 years or older. By age, pretransplant mortality rate was highest for adult candidates at 11.7 per 100 waitlist years and lowest for children aged younger than 6 years at 2.2 per 100 waitlist years. For intestine transplants with or without a liver in 2009-2011, 1- and 5-year graft survival was 72.0% and 54.1%, respectively, for recipients aged younger than 18 years, and 70.5% and 44.1%, respectively, for recipients aged 18 years or older.

OPTN/SRTR 2015 Annual Data Report: Intestine.

Intestine and intestine-liver transplant remains important in the treatment of intestinal failure, despite decreased morbidity associated with parenteral nutrition. In 2015, 196 new patients were added to the intestine transplant waiting list, with equal numbers waiting for intestine and intestine-liver transplant. Among prevalent patients on the list at the end of 2015, 63.3% were waiting for an intestine transplant and 36.7% were waiting for an intestine-liver transplant. The pretransplant mortality rate decreased dramatically over time for all age groups. Pretransplant mortality was notably higher for intestine-liver than for intestine transplant candidates (respectively, 19.9 vs. 2.8 deaths per 100 waitlist years in 2014-2015). By age, pretransplant mortality was highest for adult candidates, at 19.6 per 100 waitlist years, and lowest for children aged younger than 6 years, at 3.6 per 100 waitlist years. Pretransplant mortality by etiology was highest for candidates with non-congenital types of short-gut syndrome. Numbers of intestine transplants without a liver increased from a low of 51 in 2013 to 70 in 2015. Intestine-liver transplants increased from a low of 44 in 2012 to 71 in 2015. Short-gut syndrome (congenital and non-congenital) was the main cause of disease leading to intestine and to intestine-liver transplant. Patient survival was lowest for adult intestine-liver recipients and highest for pediatric intestine recipients.

OPTN/SRTR 2015 Annual Data Report: Liver.

Several notable developments in adult liver transplantation in the US occurred in 2015. The year saw the largest number of liver transplants to date, leading to reductions in median waiting time, in waitlist mortality for all model for end-stage liver disease categories, and in the number of candidates on the waiting list at the end of the year. Numbers of additions to the waiting list and of liver transplants performed in patients with hepatitis C virus infection decreased for the first time in recent years. However, other diagnoses, such as non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and alcoholic cirrhosis, became more prevalent. Despite large numbers of severely ill patients undergoing liver transplant, graft survival rates continued to improve. The number of new active candidates added to the pediatric liver transplant waiting list in 2015 was 689, down from a peak of 826 in 2005. The number of prevalent pediatric candidates (on the list on December 31 of the given year) continued to decline, to 373 active and 195 inactive candidates. The number of pediatric liver transplants peaked at 613 in 2008 and was 580 in 2015. The number of living donor pediatric liver transplants increased to its highest level, 79, in 2015; most were from donors closely related to the recipients. Pediatric graft survival rates continued to improve.

OPTN/SRTR 2013 Annual Data Report: liver.

During 2013, 10,479 adult candidates were added to the liver transplant waiting list, compared with 10,185 in 2012; 5921 liver transplants were performed, and 211 of the transplanted organs were from living donors. As of December 31, 2013, 15,027 candidates were registered on the waiting list, including 12,407 in active status. The most significant change in allocation policy affecting liver waitlist trends in 2013 was the Share 35 policy, whereby organs from an entire region are available to candidates with model for end-stage liver disease scores of 35 or higher. Median waiting time for such candidates decreased dramatically, from 14.0 months in 2012 to 1.4 months in 2013, but the effect on waitlist mortality is unknown. The number of new active pediatric candidates added to the liver transplant waiting list increased to 693 in 2013. Transplant rates were highest for candidates aged younger than 1 year (275.6 per 100 waitlist years) and lowest for candidates aged 11 to 17 years (97.0 per 100 waitlist years). Five-year graft survival was 71.7% for recipients aged younger than 1 year, 74.9% for ages 1 to 5 years, 78.9% ages 6 to 10 years, and 77.4% for ages 11 to 17 years.

OPTN/SRTR 2013 Annual Data Report: intestine.

Despite improvements in medical and surgical treatment of intestinal failure over the past decade, intestine transplant continues to play an important role. Of 171 new patients added to the intestine transplant waiting list in 2013, 49% were listed for intestine-liver transplant and 51% for intestine transplant alone or with an organ other than liver. The pretransplant mortality rate decreased dramatically over time for all age groups, from 30.3 per 100 waitlist years in 2002-2003 to 6.9 for patients listed in 2012-2013. The number of intestine transplants decreased from 91 in 2009 to 51 in 2013; intestine-liver transplants decreased from 135 in 2007 to a low of 44 in 2012, but increased slightly to 58 in 2013. Ages of intestine and intestineliver transplant recipients have changed substantially; the number of adult recipients was double the number of pediatric recipients in 2013. Graft survival improved over the past decade. Graft failure in the first 90 days posttransplant occurred in 14.1% of intestine recipients and in 11.2% of intestine-liver recipients in 2013. The number of recipients alive with a functioning intestine graft has steadily increased since 2002, to 1012 in 2013; almost half were pediatric intestine-liver transplant recipients.

OPTN/SRTR 2012 Annual Data Report: liver.

Liver transplant in the us remains a successful life-saving procedure for patients with irreversible liver disease. In 2012, 6256 adult liver transplants were performed, and more than 65,000 people were living with a transplanted liver. The number of adults who registered on the liver transplant waiting list decreased for the first time since 2002; 10,143 candidates were added, compared with 10,359 in 2011. However, the median waiting time for active wait-listed adult candidates increased, as did the number of candidates removed from the list because they were too sick to undergo transplant. The overall deceased donor transplant rate decreased to 42.3 per 100 patient-years, and varied geographically from 18.9 to 228.0 per 100 patient-years. Graft survival continues to improve, especially for donation after circulatory death livers. The number of new active pediatric candidates added to the waiting list also decreased. Almost 75% of pediatric candidates listed in 2009 underwent transplant within 3 years; the 2012 rate of deceased donor transplants among active pediatric wait-listed candidates was 136 per 100 patient-years. Graft survival for deceased donor pediatric transplants was 92.8% at 30 days. Medicare paid for some or all of the care for more than 30% of liver transplants in 2010.

Waiting list removal rates among patients with chronic and malignant liver diseases.

Equitable liver allocation should ensure that nonelective removal rates are fairly distributed among waiting candidates. We compared removal rates for adults entered with nonmalignant (NM) (N = 9379) and hepatocellular cancer (HCC) (N = 2052) diagnoses on the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network (OPTN) list between April 30, 2003, and December 31, 2004. Unadjusted removal rates for NM vs. HCC diagnoses were 9.4% vs. 8.7%, 13.5% vs. 16.9% and 19.1% vs. 31.8% at 90, 180 and 365 days, respectively after listing. For NM candidates, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score (RR = 1.16), age (RR = 1.03) and metabolic disease diagnoses (RR = 1.66) had higher risks of removal; and PSC (RR = 0.62) and alcoholic cirrhosis (RR = 0.82) had lower risks of removal. For HCC candidates, MELD score at listing (RR = 1.09), AFP (RR = 1.02), maximum tumor size (RR = 1.16) and age at listing (RR = 1.02) had increased risks of removal. The equation 1 - 0.920 exp[0.09369 (MELD at listing - 12.48) + 0.00193 (AFP - 97.4) + 0.1505 (maximum tumor size - 2.59) defined the probability of dropout for HCC candidates within 90 days of listing. We conclude that factors associated with the risk of removal for HCC are different from NM candidates, although MELD score at listing remains the most predictive for both groups. Liver transplant candidates with HCC may be prioritized using a risk score analogous to the MELD score.

Application of a continuous disease severity score to the OPTN liver waiting list.

In a move to establish measurable, objective criteria for cadaveric liver allocation, the United Network for Organ Sharing OPTN will implement the Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD) system in early 2002 as a replacement for the current Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP)-based Status 2A, 2B, and 3 categories for patients waiting for a cadaver donor liver transplant. The MELD is a continuous mortality risk score based on serum creatinine, bilirubin, and INR. Although originally developed in patients undergoing the transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) procedure, analysis of OPTN data shows that the components of MELD (in particular, bilirubin) have a very strong correlation with mortality in liver transplant candidates. Univariate analyses showed that pretransplant mortality significantly increased when the MELD score was > 1.8. In the study cohort, 25% of the patients had a MELD score > 1.8. Multivariate analysis showed that the MELD score was an independent predictor of mortality, with a 2-unit increase multiplying the risk of mortality by a factor of 5.6. The MELD and CTP scores were correlated, but MELD scores varied widely for any given CTP score, indicating that some patients could be disadvantaged with the status-based system. The MELD score was validated in an independent dataset; concordance with 3-month mortality was 0.88. We conclude that the MELD score is a good indicator of disease severity and that implementation of this system should direct more livers to those patients in greatest need of transplantation.