An overview of the use of the fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) in osteoporosis.

FRAX®, a simple-to-use fracture risk calculator, was first released in 2008 and since then has been used increasingly worldwide. By calculating the 10-year probabilities of a major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture, it assists clinicians when deciding whether further investigation, for example a bone mineral density measurement (BMD), and/or treatment is needed to prevent future fractures. In this review, we explore the literature around osteoporosis and how FRAX has changed its management. We present the characteristics of this tool and describe the use of thresholds (diagnostic and therapeutic). We also present arguments as to why screening with FRAX should be considered. FRAX has several limitations which are described in this review. This review coincides with the release of a version, FRAXplus, which addresses some of these limitations.

Estimating the economic burden of osteoporotic fractures in a multinational study: a real-world data perspective.

Fracture-related costs vary by country. A standardized methodology and presentations were proposed to fairly assess the economic burden of osteoporotic fracture. Results indicated substantial costs of osteoporotic fractures for pharmacy, hospitalization, emergency care, and outpatient visits in women aged ≥ 50 years in Australia, Germany, South Korea, Spain, and the USA. PURPOSE: The objective of this multinational, retrospective matched cohort study was to use a standardized methodology across different healthcare systems to estimate the burden of osteoporotic fracture (OF) in women aged ≥ 50 years in Australia, Germany, South Korea, Spain, and the USA. METHODS: Within each country, healthcare resource utilization and direct costs of care were compared between patients with newly identified OF and a propensity score-matched cohort without OF during follow-up periods of up to 5 years. RESULTS: Across all five countries, the OF cohort had significantly higher rates and length of inpatient admissions compared with the non-OF cohort. In each country, the adjusted total costs of care ratio between OF and non-OF cohorts were significant. The adjusted cost ratios for pharmacy, inpatient care, emergency care, and outpatient visits were similarly higher in the OF cohort across countries. CONCLUSION: The current study demonstrates the substantial economic burden of OF across different countries when compared with matched non-OF patients. The findings would assist stakeholders and policymakers in developing appropriate health policies.

Osteoporosis and fractures in women: the burden of disease.

Osteoporosis is a disease characterized by impaired bone microarchitecture and reduced bone mineral density (BMD) resulting in bone fragility and increased risk of fracture. In western societies, one in three women and one in five men will sustain an osteoporotic fracture in their remaining lifetime from the age of 50 years. Fragility fractures, especially of the spine and hip, commonly give rise to increased morbidity and mortality. In the five largest European countries and Sweden, fragility fractures were the cause of 2.6 million disability-adjusted life years in 2016 and the fracture-related costs increased from €29.6 billion in 2010 to €37.5 billion in 2017. In the European Union and the USA, only a small proportion of women eligible for pharmacological treatment are being prescribed osteoporosis medication. Secondary fracture prevention, using Fracture Liaison Services, can be used to increase the rates of fracture risk assessment, BMD testing and use of osteoporosis medication in order to reduce fracture numbers. Additionally, established primary prevention strategies, based on case-finding methods utilizing fracture prediction tools, such as FRAX, to identify women without fracture but with elevated risk, are recommended in order to further reduce fracture numbers.

Fracture risk assessment by the FRAX model.

The introduction of the FRAX algorithms has facilitated the assessment of fracture risk on the basis of fracture probability. FRAX integrates the influence of several well-validated risk factors for fracture with or without the use of bone mineral density. Since age-specific rates of fracture and death differ across the world, FRAX models are calibrated with regard to the epidemiology of hip fracture (preferably from national sources) and mortality (usually United Nations sources). Models are currently available for 73 nations or territories covering more than 80% of the world population. FRAX has been incorporated into more than 80 guidelines worldwide, although the nature of this application has been heterogeneous. The limitations of FRAX have been extensively reviewed. Arithmetic procedures have been proposed in order to address some of these limitations, which can be applied to conventional FRAX estimates to accommodate knowledge of dose exposure to glucocorticoids, concurrent data on lumbar spine bone mineral density, information on trabecular bone score, hip axis length, falls history, type 2 diabetes, immigration status and recency of prior fracture.

An assessment of intervention thresholds for very high fracture risk applied to the NOGG guidelines : A report for the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group (NOGG).

The National Osteoporosis Guideline Group (NOGG) has developed intervention thresholds based on FRAX® to characterise patients at high and very high risk of fracture. INTRODUCTION: Guidelines for the assessment of fracture risk have begun to categorise patients eligible for treatment into high and very high risk of fracture to inform choice of therapeutic approach. The aim of the present study was to develop intervention thresholds based on the hybrid assessment model of NOGG. METHODS: We examined the impact of intervention thresholds in a simulated cross-sectional cohort of women age 50 years or more from the UK with the distribution of baseline characteristics based on that in the FRAX cohorts. The prevalence of very high risk using the hybrid model was compared with age-dependent thresholds used by the International Osteoporosis Foundation and the European Society for Clinical and Economic Aspects of Osteoporosis and Osteoarthritis (IOF/ESCEO). The appropriateness of thresholds was tested based on the populations treated with anabolic agents. RESULTS: With an upper intervention threshold using the IOF/ESCEO criteria, 56% of women age 50 years or more would be characterised at very high risk. This compares with 36% using the IOF/ESCEO criteria and an age-specific intervention threshold over all ages. With an upper intervention threshold of 1.6 times the pre-existing intervention threshold, 10% of women age 50 years or more would be characterised at very high risk. The data from phase 3 studies indicate that most trial participants exposed to romosozumab or teriparatide would fall into the very high-risk category. CONCLUSIONS: Proposals for FRAX-based criteria for very high risk for the NOGG hybrid model categorise a small proportion of women age 50 years or more (10%) in this highest risk stratum. The level of risk identified was comparable to that of women enrolled in trials of anabolic agents.

Vertebral fracture: epidemiology, impact and use of DXA vertebral fracture assessment in fracture liaison services.

Vertebral fractures are independent risk factors for vertebral and nonvertebral fractures. Since vertebral fractures are often missed, the relatively new introduction of vertebral fracture assessment (VFA) for imaging of the lateral spine during DXA-measurement of the spine and hips may contribute to detect vertebral fractures. We advocate performing a VFA in all patients with a recent fracture visiting a fracture liaison service (FLS). Fracture liaison services (FLS) are important service models for delivering secondary fracture prevention for older adults presenting with a fragility fracture. While commonly age, clinical risk factors (including fracture site and number of prior fracture) and BMD play a crucial role in determining fracture risk and indications for treatment with antiosteoporosis medications, prevalent vertebral fractures usually remain undetected. However, vertebral fractures are important independent risk factors for future vertebral and nonvertebral fractures. A development of the DXA technology, vertebral fracture assessment (VFA), allows for assessment of the lateral spine during the regular DXA bone mineral density measurement of the lumbar spine and hips. Recent approaches to the stratification of antiosteoporosis medication type according to baseline fracture risk, and differences by age in the indication for treatment by prior fracture mean that additional information from VFA may influence initiation and type of treatment. Furthermore, knowledge of baseline vertebral fractures allows reliable definition of incident vertebral fracture events during treatment, which may modify the approach to therapy. In this manuscript, we will discuss the epidemiology and clinical significance of vertebral fractures, the different methods of detecting vertebral fractures, and the rationale for, and implications of, use of VFA routinely in FLS. • Vertebral fracture assessment is a tool available on modern DXA instruments and has proven ability to detect vertebral fractures, the majority of which occur without a fall and without the signs and symptoms of an acute fracture. • Most osteoporosis guidelines internationally suggest that treatment with antiosteoporosis medications should be considered for older individuals (e.g., 65 years +) with a recent low trauma fracture without the need for DXA. • Younger individuals postfracture may be risk-assessed on the basis of FRAX® probability including DXA and associated treatment thresholds. • Future fracture risk is markedly influenced by both site, number, severity, and recency of prior fracture; awareness of baseline vertebral fractures facilitates definition of true incident vertebral fracture events occurring during antiosteoporosis treatment. • Detection of previously clinically silent vertebral fractures, defining site of prior fracture, might alter treatment decisions in younger or older FLS patients, consistent with recent IOF-ESCEO guidance on baseline-risk-stratified therapy, and provides a reliable baseline from which to define new, potentially therapy-altering, vertebral fracture events.

Fracture risk assessment in celiac disease: a registry-based cohort study.

Celiac disease is associated with an increased fracture risk but is not a direct input to the FRAX® calculation. When celiac disease is considered as a secondary osteoporosis risk factor or BMD is included in the FRAX assessment, FRAX accurately predicts fracture risk. INTRODUCTION: The fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX®) uses clinical factors and bone mineral density (BMD) measurement to predict 10-year major osteoporotic (MOF) fracture probability. The study aim was to determine whether celiac disease affects MOF risk independent of FRAX score. METHODS: The Manitoba BMD Registry includes clinical data, BMD measurements, 10-year probability of MOF calculated for each individual using the Canadian FRAX tool and diagnosed celiac disease. Using linkage to population-based healthcare databases, we identified incident MOF diagnoses over the next 10 years for celiac disease and general population cohorts. RESULTS: Celiac disease (N = 693) was associated with increased fracture risk adjusted for FRAX score computed without secondary osteoporosis or BMD (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.43, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.11-1.86). Celiac disease was no longer a significant risk factor for fracture when secondary osteoporosis or BMD were included in the FRAX calculation (p > 0.1). In subjects with celiac disease, each SD increase in FRAX score (calculated with and without secondary osteoporosis or BMD) was associated with higher risk of incident MOF (adjusted HR 1.66 to 1.80), similar to the general population (p-interaction > 0.2). Including celiac disease as secondary osteoporosis or including BMD in FRAX 10-year MOF probability calculations (10.1% and 8.6% respectively) approximated the observed cumulative 10-year MOF probability (10.8%, 95% CI 7.8-13.9%). CONCLUSIONS: Celiac disease is associated with an increased risk of major osteoporotic fractures. When celiac disease is considered as a secondary osteoporosis risk factor or BMD is included in FRAX assessment, FRAX accurately predicts fracture risk.

Assessment of Cardiovascular Safety of Anti-Osteoporosis Drugs.

The incidence of osteoporosis and cardiovascular disease increases with age, and there are potentially shared mechanistic associations between the two conditions. It is therefore highly relevant to understand the cardiovascular implications of osteoporosis medications. These are presented in this narrative review. Calcium supplementation could theoretically cause atheroma formation via calcium deposition, and in one study was found to be associated with myocardial infarction, but this has not been replicated. Vitamin D supplementation has been extensively investigated for cardiac benefit, but no consistent effect has been found. Despite findings in the early 21st century that menopausal hormone therapy was associated with coronary artery disease and venous thromboembolism (VTE), this therapy is now thought to be potentially safe (from a cardiac perspective) if started within the first 10 years of the menopause. Selective estrogen receptor modulators (SERMs) are associated with increased risk of VTE and may be related to fatal strokes (a subset of total strokes). Bisphosphonates could theoretically provide protection against atheroma. However, data from randomised trials and observational studies have neither robustly supported this nor consistently demonstrated the potential association with atrial fibrillation. Denosumab does not appear to be associated with cardiovascular disease and, although parathyroid hormone analogues are associated with palpitations and dizziness, no association with a defined cardiovascular pathology has been demonstrated. Finally, romosozumab has been shown to have a possible cardiovascular signal, and therefore post-market surveillance of this therapy will be vital.

Long-term cost-effectiveness of screening for fracture risk in a UK primary care setting: the SCOOP study.

Community-based screening and treatment of women aged 70-85 years at high fracture risk reduced fractures; moreover, the screening programme was cost-saving. The results support a case for a screening programme of fracture risk in older women in the UK. INTRODUCTION: The SCOOP (screening for prevention of fractures in older women) randomized controlled trial investigated whether community-based screening could reduce fractures in women aged 70-85 years. The objective of this study was to estimate the long-term cost-effectiveness of screening for fracture risk in a UK primary care setting compared with usual management, based on the SCOOP study. METHODS: A health economic Markov model was used to predict the life-time consequences in terms of costs and quality of life of the screening programme compared with the control arm. The model was populated with costs related to drugs, administration and screening intervention derived from the SCOOP study. Fracture risk reduction in the screening arm compared with the usual management arm was derived from SCOOP. Modelled fracture risk corresponded to the risk observed in SCOOP. RESULTS: Screening of 1000 patients saved 9 hip fractures and 20 non-hip fractures over the remaining lifetime (mean 14 years) compared with usual management. In total, the screening arm saved costs (£286) and gained 0.015 QALYs/patient in comparison with usual management arm. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis suggests that a screening programme of fracture risk in older women in the UK would gain quality of life and life years, and reduce fracture costs to more than offset the cost of running the programme.

Epidemiology of hip fractures in Bulgaria: development of a country-specific FRAX model.

A retrospective population-based survey was undertaken in a region of Bulgaria to determine the incidence of hip fracture. The estimated number of hip fractures nationwide for 2015 was 9322 and is predicted to increase to 11,398 in 2050. The hip fracture rates were used to create a FRAX model. OBJECTIVE: To describe the epidemiology of hip fractures in Bulgaria, which was then used to develop the country-specific fracture prediction FRAX® tool. METHODS: We carried out a retrospective population-based survey in Stara Zagora, Bulgaria, representing approximately 4.6% of the country's population. We identified hip fractures occurring in 2015, 2016 and 2017 from hospital registers and primary care sources held by the regional health insurance agency. Age- and sex-specific incidence of hip fracture and national mortality rates were incorporated into a FRAX model for Bulgaria. Fracture probabilities were compared with those from neighbouring countries having FRAX models. RESULTS: The incidence of hip fracture applied nationally suggested that the estimated number of hip fractures nationwide in persons over the age of 50 years for 2015 was 9322 and is predicted to increase to 11,398 in 2050. FRAX-based probabilities were higher in Bulgaria than those in Serbia or Romania, lower than those in Turkey and similar to those in Greece. CONCLUSION: The FRAX model should enhance accuracy of determining fracture probability among the Bulgarian population and help guide decisions about treatment.

FRAX-based intervention and assessment thresholds for osteoporosis in Iran.

We compared the utility of the current Iranian guidelines that recommend treatment in women with a T-score ≤ - 2.5 SD with a FRAX-based intervention threshold equivalent to women of average BMI with a prior fragility fracture. Whereas the FRAX-based intervention threshold identified women at high fracture probability, the T-score threshold was less sensitive, and the associated fracture risk decreased markedly with age. INTRODUCTION: The fracture risk assessment algorithm FRAX® has been recently calibrated for Iran, but guidance is needed on how to apply fracture probabilities to clinical practice. METHODS: The age-specific ten-year probabilities of a major osteoporotic fracture were calculated in women with average BMI to determine fracture probabilities at two potential intervention thresholds. The first comprised the age-specific fracture probabilities associated with a femoral neck T-score of - 2.5 SD, in line with current guidelines in Iran. The second approach determined age-specific fracture probabilities that were equivalent to a woman with a prior fragility fracture, without BMD. The parsimonious use of BMD was additionally explored by the computation of upper and lower assessment thresholds for BMD testing. RESULTS: When a BMD T-score ≤ - 2.5 SD was used as an intervention threshold, FRAX probabilities in women aged 50 years was approximately two-fold higher than in women of the same age but with an average BMD and no risk factors. The relative increase in risk associated with the BMD threshold decreased progressively with age such that, at the age of 80 years or more, a T-score of - 2.5 SD was actually protective. The 10-year probability of a major osteoporotic fracture by age, equivalent to women with a previous fracture rose with age from 4.9% at the age of 50 years to 17%, at the age of 80 years, and identified women at increased risk at all ages. CONCLUSION: Intervention thresholds based on BMD alone do not effectively target women at high fracture risk, particularly in the elderly. In contrast, intervention thresholds based on fracture probabilities equivalent to a "fracture threshold" target women at high fracture risk.

State of the art in osteoporosis risk assessment and treatment.

BACKGROUND: Osteoporosis constitutes a major public health problem, through its association with age-related fractures, particularly of the hip, vertebrae, distal forearm, and humerus. Over recent decades, it has evolved from being viewed as an inevitable consequence of ageing, to being recognised as a serious and eminently treatable disease. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In this article, we review the literature pertaining to the epidemiology of osteoporosis, associated health burden, approaches to risk assessment and treatment. RESULTS: Although there is some evidence that fracture incidence has reached a plateau, or even started to decline, in the developed world, an ageing population and adoption of westernised lifestyles in transitioning populations is leading to an increasing burden of osteoporosis across the world. Whilst the clinical definition of osteoporosis has been based solely on bone mineral density, the prediction of fracture at the individual level has been improved by consideration of clinical risk factors in tools such as FRAX®, derived from a greater understanding of the epidemiology of osteoporosis. Such advances in approaches to primary and secondary prevention of fractures, coupled with elucidation of the underlying biology, and the development of a range of highly effective antiosteoporosis medications, have enabled a step change in our ability to prevent osteoporosis-related fractures. However, there remains a substantial disparity between the number of individuals at high fracture risk and number treated globally. CONCLUSION: Urgent work is needed at the level of health care systems, national and international policy, and in communication with patients and public, to ensure that all patients who should receive treatment for osteoporosis actually do so.

Recommendations for the conduct of economic evaluations in osteoporosis: outcomes of an experts' consensus meeting organized by the European Society for Clinical and Economic Aspects of Osteoporosis, Osteoarthritis and Musculoskeletal Diseases (ESCEO) and the US branch of the International Osteoporosis Foundation.

Economic evaluations are increasingly used to assess the value of health interventions, but variable quality and heterogeneity limit the use of these evaluations by decision-makers. These recommendations provide guidance for the design, conduct, and reporting of economic evaluations in osteoporosis to improve their transparency, comparability, and methodologic standards. INTRODUCTION: This paper aims to provide recommendations for the conduct of economic evaluations in osteoporosis in order to improve their transparency, comparability, and methodologic standards. METHODS: A working group was convened by the European Society for Clinical and Economic Aspects of Osteoporosis and Osteoarthritis to make recommendations for the design, conduct, and reporting of economic evaluations in osteoporosis, to define an osteoporosis-specific reference case to serve a minimum standard for all economic analyses in osteoporosis, to discuss methodologic challenges and initiate a call for research. A literature review, a face-to-face meeting in New York City (including 11 experts), and a review/approval by a larger group of experts worldwide (including 23 experts in total) were conducted. RESULTS: Recommendations on the type of economic evaluation, methods for economic evaluation, modeling aspects, base-case analysis and population, excess mortality, fracture costs and disutility, treatment characteristics, and model validation were provided. Recommendations for reporting economic evaluations in osteoporosis were also made and an osteoporosis-specific checklist was designed that includes items to report when performing an economic evaluation in osteoporosis. Further, 12 minimum criteria for economic evaluations in osteoporosis were identified and 12 methodologic challenges and need for further research were discussed. CONCLUSION: While the working group acknowledges challenges and the need for further research, these recommendations are intended to supplement general and national guidelines for economic evaluations, improve transparency, quality, and comparability of economic evaluations in osteoporosis, and maintain methodologic standards to increase their use by decision-makers.

Cost-effective but clinically inappropriate: new NICE intervention thresholds in osteoporosis (Technology Appraisal 464).

PURPOSE: To comment on the latest technology appraisal of the National Institute for Clinical Excellence (NICE) in osteoporosis. METHODS: Review of NICE Technology Appraisal (TA464) on bisphosphonate use in osteoporosis. RESULTS: The NICE appraisal on bisphosphonate use in osteoporosis indicates that treatment with oral bisphosphonates may be instituted at a FRAX 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture above 1%. Implementation would mean that all women aged 50 years or older are deemed eligible for treatment, a position that would increase the burden of rare long-term side effects across the population. CONCLUSION: Cost-effectiveness thresholds for low-cost interventions should not be used to set intervention thresholds but rather to validate the implementation of clinically driven intervention thresholds.

Social inequality and fractures-secular trends in the Danish population: a case-control study.

We examined links between markers of social inequality and fracture risk in the Danish population, demonstrating that high income and being married are associated with a significantly lower risk. INTRODUCTION: We explored whether the risk of hip, humerus, and wrist fracture was associated with markers of inequality using data from Danish health registries. METHODS: All patients 50 years or older with a primary hip (ICD10 S720, S721, S722, and S729) humerus (ICD10 S422, S423, S424, S425, S426, and S427), or wrist (ICD10: S52) fracture were identified from 1/1/1995 to 31/12/2011. Fracture patients were matched 1:1 by age, sex, and year of fracture, to a non-fracture control. Markers of inequality were as follows: income (fifths); marital status (married, divorced, widowed, or unmarried); area of residence (remote, rural, intermediate, or urban). Conditional logistic regression was used to investigate associations between these exposures, and risk of fracture, adjusting for covariates (smoking, alcohol, and Charlson co-morbidity). Interactions were fitted between exposure and covariates where appropriate. RESULTS: A total of 189,838 fracture patients (37,500 hip, 45,602 humerus, and 106,736 wrist) and 189,838 controls were included. Mean age was 73.9 years (hip), 67.5 years (humerus), and 65.3 years (wrist). High income (5th quintile) was significantly associated with a lower odds ratio of all three fractures, compared to average income (3rd quintile). Married subjects had a significantly decreased odds ratio across all three fractures. However, no overall secular difference was observed regarding the influence of the markers of inequality. CONCLUSION: In conclusion, we have demonstrated important, stable associations between social inequality, assessed using income, marital status, and area of residence, and fracture at the population level. These findings can inform approaches to healthcare, and suggest that much thought should be given to novel interventions aimed especially at those living alone, and ideally societal measures to reduce social inequality.

Access to fracture risk assessment by FRAX and linked National Osteoporosis Guideline Group (NOGG) guidance in the UK-an analysis of anonymous website activity.

In the UK, fracture risk guidance is provided by the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group (NOGG). NOGG usage showed widespread access through direct web-based linkage to FRAX. The facilitated interaction between fracture risk assessment and clinical guidelines could usefully be adopted in other countries. INTRODUCTION: In the UK, guidance on assessment of osteoporosis and fracture risk is provided by the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group ( www.shef.ac.uk/NOGG ). We wished to determine access to this guidance by exploring website activity. METHODS: We undertook an analysis of FRAX and NOGG website usage for the year between 1st July 2013 and 30th June 2014 using Google Analytics software. RESULTS: During this period, there was a total of 1,774,812 sessions (a user interaction with the website) on the FRAX website with 348,964 of these from UK-based users; 253,530 sessions were recorded on the NOGG website. Of the latter, two-thirds were returning visitors, with the vast majority (208,766; 82 %) arising from sites within the UK. The remainder of sessions were from other countries demonstrating that some users of FRAX in other countries make use of the NOGG guidance. Of the UK-sourced sessions, the majority was from England, but the session rate (adjusted for population) was the highest for Scotland. Almost all (95.7 %) of the UK sessions arose from calculations being passed through from the FRAX tool ( www.shef.ac.uk/FRAX ) to the NOGG website, comprising FRAX calculations in patients without a bone mineral density (BMD) measurement (74.5 %) or FRAX calculations with a BMD result (21.2 %). National Health Service (NHS) sites were identified as the major source of visits to the NOGG website, comprising 79.9 % of the identifiable visiting locations, but this is an underestimate as many sites from within the NHS are not classified as such. CONCLUSION: The study shows that the facilitated interaction between web-based fracture risk assessment and clinical guidelines is widely used in the UK. The approach could usefully be adopted in other countries for which a FRAX model is available.

The role of calcium supplementation in healthy musculoskeletal ageing : An expert consensus meeting of the European Society for Clinical and Economic Aspects of Osteoporosis, Osteoarthritis and Musculoskeletal Diseases (ESCEO) and the International Foundation for Osteoporosis (IOF).

The place of calcium supplementation, with or without concomitant vitamin D supplementation, has been much debated in terms of both efficacy and safety. There have been numerous trials and meta-analyses of supplementation for fracture reduction, and associations with risk of myocardial infarction have been suggested in recent years. In this report, the product of an expert consensus meeting of the European Society for Clinical and Economic Aspects of Osteoporosis, Osteoarthritis and Musculoskeletal Diseases (ESCEO) and the International Foundation for Osteoporosis (IOF), we review the evidence for the value of calcium supplementation, with or without vitamin D supplementation, for healthy musculoskeletal ageing. We conclude that (1) calcium and vitamin D supplementation leads to a modest reduction in fracture risk, although population-level intervention has not been shown to be an effective public health strategy; (2) supplementation with calcium alone for fracture reduction is not supported by the literature; (3) side effects of calcium supplementation include renal stones and gastrointestinal symptoms; (4) vitamin D supplementation, rather than calcium supplementation, may reduce falls risk; and (5) assertions of increased cardiovascular risk consequent to calcium supplementation are not convincingly supported by current evidence. In conclusion, we recommend, on the basis of the current evidence, that calcium supplementation, with concomitant vitamin D supplementation, is supported for patients at high risk of calcium and vitamin D insufficiency, and in those who are receiving treatment for osteoporosis.

Burden of high fracture probability worldwide: secular increases 2010-2040.

UNLABELLED: The number of individuals aged 50 years or more at high risk of osteoporotic fracture worldwide in 2010 was estimated at 158 million and is set to double by 2040. INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study was to quantify the number of individuals worldwide aged 50 years or more at high risk of osteoporotic fracture in 2010 and 2040. METHODS: A threshold of high fracture probability was set at the age-specific 10-year probability of a major fracture (clinical vertebral, forearm, humeral or hip fracture) which was equivalent to that of a woman with a BMI of 24 kg/m(2) and a prior fragility fracture but no other clinical risk factors. The prevalence of high risk was determined worldwide and by continent using all available country-specific FRAX models and applied the population demography for each country. RESULTS: Twenty-one million men and 137 million women had a fracture probability at or above the threshold in the world for the year 2010. The greatest number of men and women at high risk were from Asia (55 %). Worldwide, the number of high-risk individuals is expected to double over the next 40 years. CONCLUSION: We conclude that individuals with high probability of osteoporotic fractures comprise a very significant disease burden to society, particularly in Asia, and that this burden is set to increase markedly in the future. These analyses provide a platform for the evaluation of risk assessment and intervention strategies.